With a lot of mages going the 40 / 0 / 21 build for raiding, I did some calculations for a niche of mages. This niche of mages has spellfire tailored set and is inclined to using fire instead of frost for high raid dps. A fire mage has a lot of crit 30+%, decent hit rating, and a good amount of spell damage to back up his necessity for massive damage.

For a 25 / 36 / 0 raid build I have figured 900+ dps with the help of Vontre's Mage DPS Spreadsheet, and with a build of 40 / 21 / 0 I have calculated with the same spreadsheet 1000+ dps. Both builds were done including blessing of wisdom, molten armor ( added dps over mage armor ), vampric touch, wrath of air totem, spellfire set bonus, a lag of 0.35s, and no arcane power. Arcane power for the 40 / 21 / 0 build raised dps by about 10% over the 1000+ dps benchmark.

Also, the cookie cutter 10 / 48 / 3 build comes close to competing with the 40 /21 / 0 build, by just coming in under 1000 dps.

In comparison with the benchmark of Vontre's spreadsheet with a 40 / 0 / 21 build, I have calculated a 40 / 21 / 0 build will out dps a 40 / 0 / 21 build by about 50+ dps. I know 50 dps does not seem like a lot, but thats 50 damage per second, with an average fight on the spreadsheet lasting 6 minutes. That extra 50 dps equates to about 18000 extra damage over the course of the fight.

Any thoughts from the veterans of fire?

Sorting out what you said:

40/21/0 is coming out at just over 1000dps
10/48/3 is just under 1000dps
40/0/21 is around 950dps
25/36/0 is around 900dps

And you are looking for thoughts regarding whether switching to a 40/0/21 is a reasonable alternative for raiding?

With those assumptions, my thoughts.

1) What do the other gear slots look like. What's the base +dmg and +hit to go with an assumed 30% crit and is that 30% crit fire cirt (after talents) if so- what is base crit from gear.

2) What fights are you doing/other interests do you have? A "perfect conditions" span of 100dps is just small enough, imo, that each option is viable as long as it fulfills the mage's general requirements. In other words- if you're PvPing regularly, taking a dps hit on raids may be a trade you're willing to make. What is the value of the dps loss in raids worth to you in terms of your toolbox. Do you die a lot where iceblock is a greater DPS boost due to living through something than a higher base dps build? Also- not everyone plays every spec as well as another spec. Forgetful people lose dps with heavy arcane because they don't ahve AP up every cooldown, etc.

For me, I went with 10/48/3 and don't see much of a reason to change it with 2.1. It's a functional build that I'm comfortable with and I only pvp 10 games a week on a trash 5v5 team with no pretensions (called: At least we get points.). I like my cooldown toolbox although I miss iceblock =(

If a 21+frost build ever came out as a base dps increase over fire- I'd go back, but until then I'll stay fire because it suits my playstyle =)

Next patch the frost talent Artic Winds will change to have an additional +5% frost damage with 5 points in it. I think this makes full frost with atleast 10 arcane for concentration also a interresting option for raids.
Although i recognize that full frost is not the best and highest dps build. It still shines on many aspects such as: All round playstyle, it is still very good in both pve and pvp/arena, +10% crit on all frostspells with winters chill in raids, so if you have a couple of other 40/0/21 frost mages they will love you. The water element saved me many times in both pve and pvp, instant summon and a nova for the moments where you need it the most. And if you use your water element every time its cooldown is gone it also adds a nice % of your total damage. And ofcause icebarrier for when you cant be healed and dont have the time to bandage.

A build im planning on taking (even if the DR on all frostbite/petnova/frostnova goes on): http://www.wowhead.com/?talent=of0VZZVVGcofxRiqt
But i might switch one point from concentration back into improved CoC.

I used a mix of gear and ranges. My gear comes out over 1000 dps for all the builds except 40 / 0 / 21 because I have spellfire and spellstrike sets with the set bonuses. My hp suffers a lot, but thats pretty much the life of my mage since TBC.

On my personal gear I have +880 fire spell dmg, +833 arcane spell dmg, and +633 frost spell dmg and my crit is at 36% on fire spells, and 27% on all other spells when I am raid buffed. Those figures do not include any buffs from foods or potions. With potions and foods, I am over 1k fire dmg, right under 1k for arcane spell dmg, and frost is still kinda bad for me.

I was really wondering if going with a 40 / 21 / 0 build would be raid viable. I am more inclined to fire and arcane over arcane in frost since my frost spell dmg suffers a lot from spellfire tailoring.

Depends on your crit percentage, armor usage, spell dmg, and what talents you pick.

40 / 21 / 0 :

Base Crit Value is 175% with 40% increase from ignite worth 245.5% on crit and imp scorch adds more.
Imp Scorch math calculations below.

Math as follows for top figure
1.75 + (1.75 * 0.15 ) = 2.0125
2.0125 * ( 0.40 ) = 0.805
2.0125 + 0.805 = 2.8175

Crit with imp scorch full debuffs is 281.75% while no debuffs gives 245.5%

Base Hit Values is 100% plus 15% maximum from imp scorch.
Base Hit Value is 115% max.

25 / 36 / 0 :

Base Crit Value is 150% with 40% increase from ignite worth 210% on crit
Base Hit Values is 100% plus 15% maximum from imp scorch plus 10% from fire power, plus 2% from Playing With Fire 2 / 3.

Calculations:

100 + 10 + 2 + 15 = 127%

Trade off is 12% base hit value for 71.75% more dmg on crits.

With a 30%+ chance to crit, thats basically every 3-4 spells is a crit. Therefore at the least you are trading 36% dmg on base hits for more dmg on crits or at the most 48% base dmg for more dmg on crits. Therefore, a mage with fire gear would still come out ahead by about 23.75% dmg give or take a few percent. Also, after 30% crit chance for spells, a mage begins to roll his own ignites. This doesn't further increase his damage, but on short fights will actually cause the mage to lose dps.

I am more concerned about long fights such as boss fights and how to maximize dps while still maximizing mana efficiency. So yes, I will take a base dmg percent loss to maximize my dps in the long run while still maintaining high mana efficiency.

I dont have anything to increase my spell haste rating. Wish I did sometimes though.

Amaren:

Response to 40/21/0.

What happens going from 40/21/0 to 33/28/0?

You lose 1% effective crit in arcane potency and 25% of your int as spell damage.
You gain 4% crit (assuming 21 fire before gave up blastwave for 1/3 critical mass)
You gain 6% fire damage
Assuming the net gain of 3% crit means your dps increases by ~4% (3 * 1.45), you gain ~10% DPS at the cost of a flat amount of +dmg, typically around 110 (440 int raid buff is typical).
110 +dmg would have added ~35 dps with no latency. Seeing as how you'd be doing upwards of 900 DPS, the 10% gain from switching to 33/28/0 would give you at least 90 DPS, resulting in a net gain of ~65 DPS.

So if you're 40/21/0, you'd do more damage switching to 33/28/0 assuming 10% DPS is worth more than 110 +dmg (for any decent mage, it is).

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Case 2, 25/36/0 (what kind of build is this???).

Assuming 25/36/0 = http://www.wowhead.com/?talent=ow0VfoczLZxgM0fcc0eR as that's the best DPS build I could come up with.

What happens going from 25/36/0 to a 10/48/3 build?

You lose 8% int, PoM, Mana regen, 9% crit on AB and 15% mana regen while casting.

You gain 3% damage (playing with fire) and +15% of your +dmg on your fireball, as well as 3% hit for elemental spells and -3% mana cost (elemental precision).

8% int is ~40 int, which is 0.5% crit, or around 0.5% DPS lost
9% crit on AB is huge if you're using AB cycles, but since you're trying to maximize DPS, you're not using AB cycles. Thus, 0.0% DPS
15% mana regen is longevity, and I won't deny that it would be nice to have, but does not affect DPS and is offset by precision's -3% mana cost.

6% dps gained, minus 0.5% dps lost = net gain of 5.5% dps
15% of spell damage for fireball gained, or ~150 +dmg.

Assuming 1000 spell damage, you gain 5.5% DPS and 150 +dmg on your fireball. Again assuming 900 base DPS, 5.5% DPS added to 150 +dmg on your fireball is ~ 50 DPS + ~40 DPS, or approximately 90 DPS gained from straight fireball spam (note, this is actually higher because I'm not including modifiers on the +dmg, but let's be conservative anyways).


*****
Moral of the story??
If you are interested in single target raid dps and have the aforementioned gear (1000 fire dmg, >30% crit, etc.) there is no reason to be 40/21/0 -- switch to 33/28/0. There is also no reason to be 25/36/0, as 10/48/3 crushes that build.

The sweet spot for Arcane is around 33, assuming you're repping arc/fire. It nets you AP, 2/2 spellpower, 3/3 instability, and 2/3 potency, along with arcane's bag of tricks. Any higher gives you far less return on your talent points (mind mastery is basically a *static* bonus, it doesn't really scale). If you decide not to go up to 33 arcane, you might as well drop down to 10, as there isn't anything really of value, dps-wise, between 10 and 25. Again, that assumes you aren't using AB cycles, because AB cycles are great for efficiency but can't touch fireball spam's DPS, and DPS is the point of the exercise, yes?.

[url]http://www.wowhead.com/?talent=kf0E00f0xZxgM0fcc0gRo[\url]

25/36/0 Build

The spell damage changes from typical intellect fluctuations are small. Generally speaking, when you upgrade gear, the large changes are in +damage and spell hit/crit, not intellect. The difference between good gear and great gear might be 50 int (as a freshly plucked number). That difference would result in an additional +12 damage, which is fairly negligible in this context.

I'm not sure that statement is clear. The net effect of Arcane Potency is to increase your crit rate by ~3% on all spells capable of triggering clearcasting (which to my knowledge is all damage spells of any school).


All these numbers assume molten armor. As was pointed out above, Arcane Meditation is helpful, but contributes to OOM time, not dps.

The point is that your intellect doesn't scale upwards by an appreciable amount, regardless of gear upgrades. In many cases, you sacrifice int for more damage (see Spellfire/Spellstrike). No mage would stack int over damage. It is simply less efficient.

So? 3% crit is 3% crit. You figured that part out. So why is it hard to understand that 3% is "A Good Thing?"

Huh?

I don't understand what the improved fireball nerf has to do with anything.

Tempestra has already shown you why 10/48/3 is strictly superior to 25/36/0. Same for 33/28/0 over 40/21/0. While I wish I had a few more moments to show you the math why 10/48/3 is superior to 40/21/0, it basically boils down to this: the bonus you get out of empowered fireball eclipses the bonus you get out of mind mastery at around 7-800 +damage. Empowered fireball also scales much better with gear because it grows in power as you increase the stats most relevant to a mage's dps.

The closeness he's getting is from the mana regeneration. Vontre's spreadsheet is weighted towards maximizing Arcane Blast damage based on ending at zero mana. Which is fine in a spreadsheet but difficult to move to real conditions. I'm sure that he's using a cycle along the lines of Arcane Blast * 4 or 5 with 2 Fireball (assuming someone else is providing Improved Scorch). The main difficulty with that is it requires knowing the end conditions of the fight (how much mana regen from Shadow Priests and the length) at the begining.

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As far as 41/20 or 40/21 vs 10/48/3...

40/21 Advantages
-Less gear dependent, because of Mind Mastery
-Less threat because so much damage comes from Arcane
-Improved burst from Arcane Blast spam
-Mana effeciency
-Slow is useful in Heroic for a 41/20 variation
-Maximizes crit rating for DPS

40/21 Disadvantages
-Requires lack of interruption or movement to maximize cycles
-Scales worse than a 10/48/3 build. The line starts at 700-800 damage
-Lacks effeciency in long-range fights where 30+ yards is useful
-Reliance on two curses for maximizing damage (could be an advantage if the Warlock uses Curse of Shadows only)

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10/48/3 Advantages
-Best DPS build
-Best build where range is a factor

10/48/3 Disadvantages
-Poor mana effeciency
-Very little utility
-Threat issues