Disprove what? You didn't present any facts, just opinion based on an AoE caster oriented raid group. You've contributed nothing to this thread by posting why Moonkin is inferior (in your eyes) to a shadow priest, beyond pissing me off. Not that anyone in their right mind would ever add a 2nd Shadow Priest to a group over another Mage or Warlock (yeah, that's MY opinion).
You want to compare Moonkin based on DPS? Ok, take a Warlock, Mage, Elem Shaman, and Shadow Priest spreadsheet, Add 5% Crit to whatever gear level you find appropriate. Taking the numbers from the gear of people in my guild, a slightly greater than 5% DPS increase for both the shaman and mage, just over 1% for the priest, and 3% to the warlock. At equal gear level, Moonkin isn't 14% below other DPS classes. Yeah, our DPS and DPM sucks, whatever, Moonkin is now more viable than feral tanks now. I guess that is some sort of class balance ...
You want to compare Moonkin based on utility? That gets into what's needed for the fight, which is pretty much unable to be theory crafted on a grand scale. You can talk about healthstones, AoE, CC, Health and Mana until you're blue in the face, and I assume this is what you're talking about; having to chose which class gets dropped to let in the class you need for the fight (warlocks on Magtheridon for instance) It's going to change depending on the fight though, on a fight like Mag, I'd take a moonkin over a 2nd Shadow Priest, and probably over a mage as well. Moonkin itself isn't that big a deal anyway, dropping it to decurse, abolish poison, or heal certainly isn't the end of the world, it's just part of being a hybrid. But that's for the threads about specific bosses.
Of course, there's always the main argument for Moonkin (and druids in general) that pisses me off, we're the ideal class to bring along when there's slack to pick up. Every time I cast rebirth, I want to say to people "Thanks for being a noob and justifying my raid utility by dying"
The "DPS increase" of 5% crit to 4 classes (probably 3 because any caster DPS group should have at least one shadow priest to whom crit is worthless) is not going to be worth an entire DPS class spot. What would you say is better, 15% crit raid-wise or another 900 DPS? Moonkin also cannot control their threat nor will they have the mana to go on long fights. Moonkin utility is almost non-existent and the extra armor you gain from being a bird is worthless for a ranged caster DPS.
You'd take a Moonkin over a second shadow priest? Do you have any idea what a mage can put out with two shadow priests in their group? You can spam arcane blast indefinitely provided you pot/gem accordingly. Add that to a mage with 2/5 tier5 and you're probably going to see the highest DPS out of any class currenlty in the game.
We took a bear tank to BT last night and he was able to MT the first boss. I don't see how a moonkin is going to be more useful than that.
While 1 SP vs 1 Moonkin is a no-brainer, the 2nd SP vs 1 Moonkin is somewhat more relative.
Your generally going to have groups like this Tank, Healer, Caster, Melee, X.
Caster group will get the 1st SP and reap all the benefits therein.
The second SP would either go on Healers (consumables sustain mana np anyway...), or on group X of which will tend to have people of which mana isn't that much of an issue anyway (perhaps a Hunter).
So effectivly his utility is mostly wasted.. its an economical gain on potions rather than a significant boost like the first SP would give the raid/his group.
At this point (assuming equal DPS) there isn't a huge difference between a Moonkin or a SP.
I don´t see the point in a SP vs. Moonkin debate. Yes, a SP is an extremely useful addition to any raid. That being said, it has nothing to do with the usefulness of a moonkin.
A Moonkin can deliver a good amount of dps, without mana problems in most fights. And it gives some nice little features like crit aura, combat res, whatever. This means that you don´t need a moonkin for a successful raid. This means there may be other dps classes, that have advantages in certain fights. The last two sentences are true for all dps classes.
Compare the moonkin with the 2nd mage (we all want water and an Int buff, right?), the 2nd, maybe 3rd warlock, the 2nd SP, a hunter, rogue, off warrior. Switching one of those DD with a Moonkin will not kill your raid, believe me. In very rare circumstances, a Moonkin can even save the whole evening.
Our first Moonkin appeared when we raided BWL. Nefarian's gone, the Moonkin is still there ;-)
Yeah, it would be nice if we can see some more numbers and maybe a dps calculator, similar to vontres spreadsheet in some time
Modeling something like Natures Grace with cyclical based casting is a pain in the ass. If I understood probability better I could come up with a model and finish the moonkin portion of my spreadsheet. Modeling NG with strait SF casting is easy enough, the problem comes from adding IS and MF which definately add a good deal of DPS. Thus far, everyone I've asked on these boards has been unwilling to tackle the issue. If anyone would like to take a shot at it ...
When dealing with this cycle, it's important to know exactly how many crits you get, and which spell crits. Ex Cycle is IS-MF-SFx3 assuming no lag. With only 1 NG proc you add a wrath and have a 13 second cycle instead of 12. 2 procs you add wrath for a 12.5 sec cycle. 3 procs you add either a wrath for a 12 sec cycle or starfire for a 13 sec cycle. 4 procs you add starfire for 12.5 sec cycle. Critting on the spell before a wrath is meaningless unless there's lag involved. Whatever the last spell in the cycle ends up being, because it has a chance to crit, it increases the chance that my first Starfire will be faster.
How the hell do I model something like that? I can picture it, but I just can't do it, and it's making me feel really stupid having forgotten almost everything from statistics.
And then there's lag, but I'm pretty sure I can handle that once I actually start working on the spreadsheet again.
Right now, with the load of consumables available and a stacked group, I believe a druid could sustain 1200 DPS with +900 dmg, 13% hit, 25% crit csheet before buffs with ~200 latency.
You would need to build each possibly cycle. Zero NG procs, 1 proc, 2 procs, etc. And build your cycle based on what happened.
You would then calculate the damage output of each cycle and the total duration of the cycle.
Then, you could calculate the probability of each cycle based on the number of starfires and wrath spells you were casting in the given cycle, along with your crit rate.
The other way to go would be to create a program that would take your spell damage and crit and cast the biggest DPS spell next (never casting IS or Moonfire if it is already up). Then run in through 100,000 cycles or so. I do not have the programming knowledge to do this right now, although maybe I'll dust off Matlab and try at some point.
you can like, edit the green stuff. Maybe I'll expand it into a full spreadsheet later. Now, lurkerbelow must die
Edit: Ps, adding a second shadowpriest to a group makes everyone lol as a lot of extra mana is wasted.
p.p.s: Dps of a full sustained arcane blasting mage is about 300 more then a fireball mage. That is 1600 vs 1300 ~(2/5 t5)
mana per minute is something like 9k after pots, gems, shadowpriest, jow, spirit...
Nikita, I don't think your numbers for the lag free analysis ar ecorrect at all.
In fact, I think you're doing your math terribly wrong!
Either you are skipping on some major raid debuffs, talents, or something.
Here's my math:
Assuming a shaman
Damage=((avg dmg)+(spelldmg+int*0.25+121)*1.2)*misery*cos*1.1 (for talent)
This nets 3313.718 damage at 1200 spellpower.
add in crit, dmg * crit chance (1.3) = 4307.8334
after hit: =dmg*(1-MAX(1,17-(hit+7 (<<< 3 from shaman, 4 from talents))/100 (basically *.99 at this hit)
at 3.0 casting speed, and talent speed reduction on average of (crit *.5) - casting time, we get 2.85 casting time, and 1496.405 non latency dps. adding .4 s lag we still get 1312.23 dps.
dpm etc is of course proportionally higher.
Please someone point out any errors in my calculations. Feel free to plug in numbers in above attached spreadsheet.
EDIT: I know I just did the math on a chaincasting starfire sequence, but that's the point. Threat caps or not. Adding in ff/insect swarm will simply mean multiplying by (duration - (cast time + lag))/duration