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04/19/07, 12:49 PM
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#1
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Von Kaiser
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Modeling Darkmoon Card: Wrath
This is a small spreadsheet I made for modelling the effects of the New Darkmooon Card: Wrath. This card applies a stacking buff to your crit % on regular hits. Details can be found here:
http://www.wowinsider.com/2007/04/16...tats-revealed/
The spreadsheet calculates the average +crit% effect of the trinket. Mathematically it works by calculating the average number of time between crits. The spreadsheet then calculates the amount of flat +crit would be required for the same time between crits.
The spreadsheet only needs your crit% and works for all classes provided they are continually hitting a mob.
It can be found here:
http://www.mediafire.com/?ayzomu5zqd5
Any question, comments, or improvements to the sheet are welcomed. Thank You.
Last edited by Norwest : 04/19/07 at 5:21 PM.
Reason: Fixed a small spreadsheet bug
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04/19/07, 4:51 PM
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#2
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Von Kaiser
Blood Elf Paladin
Ner'zhul
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Now the question is how you would get the most use out of this trinket. Ideally you would want a class that typically has a low crit% and high ap/+damage, at which point the damage boost would be pretty big. I could see this working really well with maybe a scorch spam fire mage, because the charging->charging->crit->charging->charging->crit mentality seems like it would work pretty well to assure ignite gets its ticks off, although this trinket doesnt really have a synergy with critical mass or combustion. TBH I really cant think of a class that puts down consistent direct damage but doesnt stack crit in some form or another.
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04/19/07, 5:03 PM
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#3
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Piston Honda
Draenei Shaman
Silvermoon (EU)
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Problem is a Scorch spamming mage probably has one of the highest innate crit rates in the game. With some crit gear (and selfbuffs), I sit @ 41% crit rate on scorch.
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04/19/07, 5:09 PM
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#4
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Mike Tyson
Night Elf Rogue
Doomhammer
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Spreadsheet is a bit off because the trinket has a max of 20 stacks - hence the "# of consecutive misses" should cap out after 20 noncrits in a row, which will drop the value of the trinket ever so slightly.
I wrote a Python program that performs basically the same calculation and just takes command-line inputs, for any of you who prefer that syntax. It can be found at http://www.mediafire.com/?2jouztevidi
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04/19/07, 5:16 PM
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#5
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Von Kaiser
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Very good for any class that need to crit at regular intervals.
Example: Fury warriors and enhance shamans with flurry.
The reason being: 1 swing after a crit, your crits aren't as valuable since they only refresh 1 charge of flurry. After 3 swings, your total DPS from a crit is higher because you recharge 3 charges. It's perfect.
Hunters are another example, we want to crit every 5seconds to keep up kill command. This trinket gives us more crit when it's more valuable, 4-5 seconds after the last crit. Enhance shammie's unleashed rage is another great example. All these crit proc abilities get more benefit from the trinket than the equivalent amount of flat crit.
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04/19/07, 5:19 PM
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#6
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Von Kaiser
Blood Elf Paladin
Ner'zhul
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Originally Posted by Teenee
Problem is a Scorch spamming mage probably has one of the highest innate crit rates in the game. With some crit gear (and selfbuffs), I sit @ 41% crit rate on scorch.
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Ya, this is kind of what I figured, given Scorches relatively low coefficient. I guess there really cant be a class/spec that can get full use our of this trinket, because if there were it would be essentially required for that class/spec.
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04/19/07, 5:21 PM
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#7
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Von Kaiser
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Originally Posted by Aldriana
Spreadsheet is a bit off because the trinket has a max of 20 stacks - hence the "# of consecutive misses" should cap out after 20 noncrits in a row
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Fixed, Thank you.
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04/19/07, 8:09 PM
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#8
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Don Flamenco
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Originally Posted by Aldriana
Spreadsheet is a bit off because the trinket has a max of 20 stacks - hence the "# of consecutive misses" should cap out after 20 noncrits in a row, which will drop the value of the trinket ever so slightly.
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Yep I wrote a simulator to just perform 100,000,000 swings with every crit %, applying the Wrath mechanics, and count the number of crits. From 11% upwards, my numbers are virtually identical to yours. Below that your numbers are higher, presumably due to this 20 stack max.
Edit: hmm, just noticed, you fixed it in your sheet. Not sure what's causing it then. Here's the differences between my numbers and yours..
Base Mine Yours
00% 6.584% 6.86%
01% 6.227% 6.44%
02% 5.889% 6.06%
03% 5.575% 5.70%
04% 5.280% 5.37%
05% 4.998% 5.07%
06% 4.739% 4.79%
07% 4.491% 4.53%
08% 4.265% 4.29%
09% 4.045% 4.07%
10% 3.844% 3.86%
11% 3.660% 3.67%
12% 3.475% 3.49%
13% 3.313% 3.32%
14% 3.157% 3.16%
15% 3.006% 3.01%
16% 2.871% 2.87%
17% 2.739% 2.74%
18% 2.618% 2.61%
19% 2.495% 2.50%
20% 2.384% 2.39%
..and then they carry on being almost identical all the way to 100%.
Last edited by Beliandra : 04/19/07 at 8:16 PM.
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04/19/07, 9:25 PM
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#9
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Mike Tyson
Night Elf Rogue
Doomhammer
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It's because there aren't enough rows in the sheet. It only goes down to 35 noncrits in a row, and with a 1% base chance of crit there's a nontrivial chance of that. If you extend it to 100 noncrits in a row, it gives numbers that match much more closely.
My Python program is still giving incorrect answers, though - I'll work on diagnosing that later this evening.
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04/19/07, 9:38 PM
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#10
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The Drones need you, They look up to you.
Blood Elf Death Knight
Mal'Ganis
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To me this screams Marksman hunter in it's current incarnation, gear specifically to max out attack power and mana/5 from aspect of the viper. So Desolation gear would be the equivilant here. Hunter crit rates hover around 20% right now as a marksman, but that isusually because the hunter put effort into keep it that high at the expense of AP.
This trinket throws a wrench in that pretty hard. But I am still not convinced that it is better than bloodlust brooch + Mark of the Conqueror
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04/20/07, 1:22 AM
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#11
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Piston Honda
Blood Elf Paladin
Al'Akir (EU)
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Originally Posted by Norwest
Very good for any class that need to crit at regular intervals.
Example: Fury warriors and enhance shamans with flurry.
The reason being: 1 swing after a crit, your crits aren't as valuable since they only refresh 1 charge of flurry. After 3 swings, your total DPS from a crit is higher because you recharge 3 charges. It's perfect.
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In theory, yes. In practice however, these classes already have a high crit-%, cutting the value down. Don't forget you have to get rid of another trinket to equip this; the first 2 hits after a crit, wrath is only catching up to the crit bonus of hourglass of the unraveler, for example.
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04/20/07, 2:18 AM
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#12
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Great Tiger
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Would it not potentially be useful for an affliction warlock build that includes Improved Shadowbolt? Given the strictures that it benefits lower crit rates more and yet is obviously more beneficial if there is a crit effect beyond damage, that's the one that stands out in my mind. I'm not sure still that it would be preferable to other trinket options but it certainly has some possible advantages for increasing the debuff uptime.
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04/20/07, 2:44 AM
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#13
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Don Flamenco
Undead Warlock
Shadowmoon
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Originally Posted by Northerner
Would it not potentially be useful for an affliction warlock build that includes Improved Shadowbolt? Given the strictures that it benefits lower crit rates more and yet is obviously more beneficial if there is a crit effect beyond damage, that's the one that stands out in my mind. I'm not sure still that it would be preferable to other trinket options but it certainly has some possible advantages for increasing the debuff uptime.
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Potentially, but only if dots count as direct damage. If not it's fairly useless. Affliction locks don't spend a whole lot of time casting shadowbolt, so it could take some serious time to ramp the trinket up and spend its charge if only immolate and shadowbolt will build additional charges.
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04/20/07, 1:05 PM
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#14
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Von Kaiser
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Originally Posted by Demi9OD
Potentially, but only if dots count as direct damage. If not it's fairly useless. Affliction locks don't spend a whole lot of time casting shadowbolt, so it could take some serious time to ramp the trinket up and spend its charge if only immolate and shadowbolt will build additional charges.
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Actually I still spend ~60% of my time casting shadowbolts. Best case you can get 3 dots (corruption, UA, and siphon life) up in 4.5 seconds, which leaves 13.5 seconds of shadowbolt spam. Affliction locks also have the lowest crit of any class so in theory should get the biggest crit boost from the trinket.
Also dots aren't direct damage by definition.
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04/20/07, 2:00 PM
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#15
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Piston Honda
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I think a cat druid could make good use of it. 1.0 attack speed + specials means it would build up very quickly.
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Devs: Our nerfs will block out the sun!
Druids: Then we will tank in the shade.
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04/20/07, 2:09 PM
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#16
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Professional Windmill Tilter
Kyth
Troll Mage
No WoW Account
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Originally Posted by Delc
Actually I still spend ~60% of my time casting shadowbolts. Best case you can get 3 dots (corruption, UA, and siphon life) up in 4.5 seconds, which leaves 13.5 seconds of shadowbolt spam.
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As shown in the warlock thread, it's worth it to cast immolate even as an affliction lock even if you have the available +shadow gear versus generic gear.
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04/20/07, 2:14 PM
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#17
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King Hippo
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Originally Posted by Pane
In theory, yes. In practice however, these classes already have a high crit-%, cutting the value down. Don't forget you have to get rid of another trinket to equip this; the first 2 hits after a crit, wrath is only catching up to the crit bonus of hourglass of the unraveler, for example.
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Adn we crit often enough without GoA or pots to have a constant UR/flurry anyways, at least this patch before everyone switches to slower offhands.
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04/20/07, 4:31 PM
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#18
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Piston Honda
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Are we pretty sure that the Crusade card "each time you deal melee damage" is worthless for ranged? 120ap (after 20-30 sec of stacking) seems more valuable than 2-3% crit.
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04/20/07, 4:54 PM
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#19
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Don Flamenco
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It's totally for Keeping Up Vengeance 3x stack each 15 seconds for Retrebution paladins. Ok that was supposed to be a joke but thinking about it, it doesn't sound stupid at all.
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04/21/07, 6:39 AM
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#20
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Bald Bull
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With all due respect, I think some people are going about it the wrong way when thinking of use-cases for this trinket. Yes, it's not useful if you have a high crit rate, but do the classes we've mentioned as having high crit rates (mages, warriors, hunters, druids) have those crit rates because they can't avoid it, or because they geared for it? Can they regear to lose some crit, and hit a sweet spot of crit gained from Wrath, while improving stats in some other way?
I have about 23% crit now. I'd consider having around 20% crit pretty acceptable for raiding. Moving down the table, if I have a base crit rate of 15%, the trinket equates to about 3% passive crit, so 18% crit.
So how much AP can I gain by wearing pure AP gear to lose 8% crit? If it's a lot, the trinket becomes worth wearing. There isn't really a shortage of hunter gear with lots of AP and no crit, so if the trinket isn't all that hard to get, I think it's worth looking into how much AP can be traded in for 3-8% crit.
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04/21/07, 2:46 PM
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#21
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Piston Honda
Orc Death Knight
Dunemaul
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Originally Posted by Maax
I think a cat druid could make good use of it. 1.0 attack speed + specials means it would build up very quickly.
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Raid buffed I'm over 40 crit, it wouldn't have time to build to any significant amount.
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04/21/07, 4:10 PM
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#22
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Von Kaiser
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Originally Posted by alienangel
Yes, it's not useful if you have a high crit rate, but do the classes we've mentioned as having high crit rates (mages, warriors, hunters, druids) have those crit rates because they can't avoid it, or because they geared for it? Can they regear to lose some crit, and hit a sweet spot of crit gained from Wrath, while improving stats in some other way?
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Exactly.
I'm likely going Beast Mastery after 2.1. Now BM hunters want crits to keep up Kill Command. Crit isn't vital to BM damage outside KC. Unlike crit, raw AP scales with your pet and is generally more valuable. As a BM, I want crit% mainly to prevent unlucky no-crit streaks longer than 5sec, because those unlucky streaks reduce my damage from Kill Command.
If a BM has 22% crit, the trinket adds the same number of crits as 2.2% crit. But when it comes to the number of Kill Commands, it adds the same as 3.5% crit. This allows me to stack much more AP than I could otherwise.
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04/21/07, 4:40 PM
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#23
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Glass Joe
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Originally Posted by Xelopheris
Raid buffed I'm over 40 crit, it wouldn't have time to build to any significant amount.
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I'm currently sitting around 32% fully raid buffed, but I definately think it would be worth looking into swapping out some gear items to increase my base stats more and see if this is worth the effort.
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04/28/07, 3:44 PM
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#24
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Soda Popinski
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Originally Posted by Pane
In theory, yes. In practice however, these classes already have a high crit-%, cutting the value down. Don't forget you have to get rid of another trinket to equip this; the first 2 hits after a crit, wrath is only catching up to the crit bonus of hourglass of the unraveler, for example.
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I'm intrigued by the possibility of this trinket for 41/20/0 Combat/Mutilate rogue.
Seal Fate, crits = good damage, without iBS buffing up crit percentage. No opportunity, so the biggest percent modifier we have on our CP-contributing attack is Lethality, which makes it even more intriguing. Plus, and this would be really exploitative, can we say "poisons"? Wound Poison may be considered a direct damage attack, with practically 0 chance to crit, even with the bonus (while you might lose your bonus from a wasted crit poison because of the spellcrit every once in a long damned while, it shouldn't be considered a major detractor).
I'm sure I'm missing something big here (other than "if you want to DPS go combat idjit), and it somewhat depends on whether it would affect both hits of an individual Mutilate.
I'm looking forward to seeing some hard data.
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04/28/07, 6:55 PM
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#25
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Piston Honda
Tauren Druid
Dragonblight
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I inadvertently started another thread about this topic.
The spreadsheet I developed is here: http://files.filefront.com/New_Darkm.../fileinfo.html
My spreadsheet is generating a noticeably higher crit value in the range most interesting to me, ~20-30%.
I attempted to model it at as follows:
Given the base crit rate, the incremental crit rates are determined for 0-20 charges (row 4).
The probability of reaching a state with a set number of charges (row 5) is given as the probability of not-critting on the given attack with the set number of charges (1 - row 4) * the probability of not-critting on all attacks to that point (prev. row 5 value).
The probability that the charges is consumed by a crit is (row 4 * row 5 = row 6).
I then multiply the crit rating value (17 * number of charges = row 7) by the probability of reaching the number of charges (row 6) & sum for the expected crit rating value.
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