The problem is the above is totally wrong because the card does not change the individual chance to crit on each cast reguardless of when the last crit took place. Changing the duration between crits and changing the chance for an individual skill to crit are not the same thing for effects like ISB even though when just comparing spam to spam you can come up with values for each that net the same effect. The effect on periodic events that occur on crit is demonstrably different than a simple change in the crit rate. Observe:

20% crit rate 45% cast ratio on SB 2.2% cast ratio on NF (fairly standard affliciton lock stats)

ISB uptime = Rate of ISB procs * Average Duration

rate of ISB procs = 0.026639 ISB/sec

average duration = (crit rate) * MIN( (1SB) * (5.46 sec /SB) , 12)
+ (crit rate) * (1-crit rate) * MIN( (2SBs) * (5.46 sec/SB) , 12)
+ (crit rate) * (1-crit rate)^2 * MIN( (3SBs) * (5.46 sec/SB) , 12)
+ (crit rate) * (1-crit rate)^3 * MIN( (4SBs) * (5.46 sec/SB) , 12)
+ (1-crit rate)^4 * MIN( (4SBs) * (5.46 sec/SB) , 12)

ISB uptime = 38.531%

Now if we assume a fixed change in crit rate we have:
22.39% crit rate

ISB uptime = Rate of ISB procs * Average Duration

rate of ISB procs = 0.041006 ISB/sec

average duration = (new crit rate) * MIN( (1SB) * (5.46 sec /SB) , 12)
+ (new crit rate) * (1-new crit rate) * MIN( (2SBs) * (5.46 sec/SB) , 12)
+ (new crit rate) * (1-new crit rate)^2 * MIN( (3SBs) * (5.46 sec/SB) , 12)
+ (new crit rate) * (1-new crit rate)^3 * MIN( (4SBs) * (5.46 sec/SB) , 12)
+ (1- new crit rate)^4 * (4SBs) * MIN( (5.46 sec/SB) , 12)

ISB uptime = 42.4336%

And if we assume a change in the crit rate on individual casts while at the same time taking into account the change in average chance to crit and start the ISB:

effective average crit rate of 22.39% but a lower crit rate on strikes with ISB already up given that we know when the last crit was

ISB uptime = Rate of ISB procs * Average Duration

rate of ISB procs = 0.041006 ISB/sec

average duration = (crit rate) * (1SB) * MIN( (5.46 sec /SB) , 12)
+ (crit rate + DM:W*1) * (1-crit rate) * MIN( (2SBs) * (5.46 sec/SB) , 12)
+ (crit rate + DM:W*2) * (1-(crit rate+DM:W*1)) * (1-crit rate) * MIN( (3SBs) * (5.46 sec/SB) , 12)
+ (crit rate + DM:W*3) * (1-(crit rate+DM:W*2)) * (1-(crit rate+DM:W*1)) * (1-crit rate) * MIN( (4SBs) * (5.46 sec/SB) , 12)
+ (1-(crit rate+DM:W*3)) * (1-(crit rate+DM:W*2)) * (1-(crit rate+DM:W*1)) * (1-crit rate) * MIN( (4SBs) * (5.46 sec/SB) , 12)

ISB uptime = 43.11%

When you assume that the card's effects are a change in the average crit rate and not a change in the average time between crits then you assume that every strike after the first crit that starts ISB gets the full average benifit of the card, but we know for a fact they don't. By effectily increasing the number of ISB procs while at the same time reducing the number of procs that end other procs early the card affords better uptime numbers than a simple change in average crit rate would indicate.

You have to customize your ISB model to the effects of the card becuase the cards effects on ISB uptime are not the same as the effect of simply adding a fixed amount of crit rating.

But it does. If you didnt crit on cast, you have more chance to crit on next cast. So Card does change individual chance to crit on each cast.

I think I see what is your point, although it is not exactly related with above statement and examples given. BTW, in your last math example, shouldnt you use for first crit chance 'new crit rate' (ie 22.39%) and only on subsequent chances to crit during ISB to use 'crit rate + DM:W*N' (ie 20% + N*0.77%)?

But in any case, I think I understood what you try to say, but I believe that it shouldnt have such noticeable effect on ISB uptime.

I will try to model this card behavior in my ISB simulation application, and check how it rreally affect ISb uptime ;p

BTW, I couldnt understand one major thing from your post: do you expect that Card effect will be better or worse due to its side effect on ISB? Or, to be more precise, if we say that equivalent crit% of Card is 2.39% for 20% crit, do you expect card in reality to result in more or less ISB uptime than flat increase of crit rate for 2.39% ?

no, it doesn't it changes the change to crit on the next cast, there's a difference.

Lower crit rates on strikes while ISB is active increases the average duration of the effect. Changing the crit rate changes the number of ISB procs you get in a given time period and when two procs are two close together the first one is cut short and the avereage duration is lowered. Increasing crit by adding flat percentages rasies the number of ISB/sec but the avereage duration of ISB is inversly proportional to the number of ISB/sec so frequency of procs goes up while average duration of procs goes down.

No, the first SB cast after an ISB proc i.e. a critical shadowbolt will use the flat crit rate and have no modifiers from the card what so ever because the last cast cleared the stack of DM:W buffs.

I'd love to see the simulation code after you get both models running together, I would be very suprised and interested if you came up with different results than the math above.

I would expect more ISB uptime from the card than a trinket with a flat +crit rating. The card offers a simlar effective time between crits to a flat increase in crit rating but does so with a considerably smaller chance of getting crits early or late. The reduced chance of getting a crit 'to soon' should result in a higher ISB uptime.

I don't think the changes in ISB uptime at any crit rate for any spec will make the card actually worth using over a different trinket though, in the example above the card is basically +2.3% crit and ~0.136% increase in overall shadow damage.

ISB? If it would be bigger numbers I'd say that how the crits spread out over time would make a difference here. But the extra crit from this trinket is so small that the way your crits deviate over time will change very, very little, and I can bet that it's not nearly enough to make up for how lousy raw the extra damage is.

ok, i changed my ISB simulator, you can find both source and EXE here :

ISB Simulator.ZIP

Results that I got are interesting:

Results could be summarized in:
1) if Card effect is simulated on 20% crit, it really result in higher ISB uptime (43.11%) than if fixed 2.39% crit is added (with 22.39% it result in 42.45% uptime) - numbers are fairly close to yours. Those 0.66% more ISB uptime equals 0.132% more shadow damage.

2) real crit rate (one that affect SB crit damage) is increased for 2.39% - as calculated in XLS

3) for one specific afflic build, additional bonus that card have due to ISB uptime (ie those 0.132% shadow dmg) are equivalent to 2.6 +shadow, or 0.24% additional crit rate

So, Card effect at 20% crit rate for above could be described as :
- adds 2.39% crit and 0.132% shadow damage, or
- adds 2.63% crit equivalent

Problem with both description is that additional value due to ISB depends on stats and spells used by warlock, although first description (crut% and shadow%) is less dependant on stats,

ANother point is that in raid situations, where ISB only has real effect, with more warlocks difference between simulated ISB at 20% + wrath and simulated ISB at 22.39% is reduced . For example, it was 0.66% for one lock, and with 3 locks its down to 0.3%, while with 4 locks its practically zero. Since 3+ locks are fairly standard on 25+ raids, value of Darkmoon-Wrath for warlocks will be almost equal to one shown in XLS. Same goes for farming and trash mob, where Card should still have same effect on crits ( I presume increased crit rate is not reset in short time).

But even for one lock on raid, where ISB bonus to Card effect is best (lets say 10% more effect than without considering ISB, in above example), final result is still way under effect Darkmoon:Crusade would have. On particulat afflic lock from above example, one crit point was valued as 0.39 +dmg points (from my DPS calc XLS), so even increased effect of 2.63% crit is equivalent only to 23 +dmg , which doesnt compare to 77 +dmg from Crusade.

So my conclusions would be:
1) Effect of Card:Wrath for single warlock on boss fight is slightly better than values shown in XLS (about 10% better or so)
2) for 3+warlocks in raid, or for farming and trash mobs, change due to ISB could be ignored, and effective value of Card is one shown in XLS
3) even in best case, additional effect due to ISB is far too small to make Darkmoon: Wrath comparable to Darkmoon: Crusader for warlock

What 'new' darkmoon card? You are reffering to Darkmoon:Crusade or something better is out?

Considering I just collected all parts for Darkmoon:Crusade and only waiting for next faire, I hope you were reffering to Crusade;p

BTW, I would not say that Crusade is 'absurdly powerful' considering time/effort/resources needed to collect all items. If i use my XLS and compare some of better trinkets that I put there, shown in equivalent of +dmg for that imaginary afflic lock from above (1150 +shadow, 15% crit, 10% hit), effects of some trinkets:
- Icon of Silver Crescent = 67
- Quagmirran's Eye = 44
- Eye of Magtheridon = 88
- Darkmoon: Crusade = 77
- Ashtongue Talisman = 62

So I would say that it is sDarkmoon:Wrath that is underpowered, rather than Darkmoon:Crusade being overpowered (its close to Crescent and Ashtongue, worse than Eye of Magtheridon up to 11.4% hit, and worse than Ashtongue if you can have DoT on 2 mobs)

Also, we need to consider fact that Darkmoon:Wrath is especially useless for afflic lock where crit% has least effect. Some best case scenario for warlock would be Destro lock with only 10% crit on gear (so 18% with talents) - such lock would have value of crit at 0.70 +dmg (much better than 0.40 for afflic), and would have value of Darkmoon:Wrath at about 2.9 crit%, so equivalent value in +dmg (to compare to above trinkets) would be 45 +dmg ... still not close to Darkmoon:Crusade, but at least comparabe to others. And other classes could probably benefit from Wrath even more ;p

Once you have 12% hit Darkmoon: Crusade is the best trinket in the game for a lock and you can buy the cards with farmed gold. I can farm about 300g an hour and the trinket is less than 2kg on my server probably less than 3k on any server. Icon of the Silver Crescent and Ashtongue take considerably longer to obtain I think.

I am an enhancement shaman and I am strongly considering getting this card. It looks like for most classes with decent crit ratings, this card is underwhelming, but I see the following benefits for endgame pvp scenarios and enhancement shamans specifically:

- A good crit trinket for endgame PVP, where many opponents will have 400+ resiliance and can lower your normally high crit rating by 10% or so. Of course, the lower your crit rate, the more benefit from this card.

- Enhancement Shamans cast shocks intermittently, which have a low (~5%) crit rating. Shocks will usually not crit and will thus inflate your crit rate more than just attacking with your "real" melee crit rate.

- The fact that Shamans do use physical attacks, shocks, and occasional heals gives us a greater benefit from the card, as we benefit from both the melee and the spell crit. This will result in a small but legitimate increase in damage from shocks and increase in healing from crit heals.

- As mentioned before, classes that get significant bonuses from critting will get a better benefit from this card. When I crit, my attack speed increases by 30% and my attack power increases by 10%. This card will help keep flurry and unleashed rage up.

- Last but not least, windfury attacks occur instantaneously, and therefore when windfury procs, both attacks will benefit from any +crit charged up from the card. In this sense, the +crit charges are applied to 2 attacks and even if the first windfury proc crits, the second simultaneous proc will still receive the benefit. I have no math or in depth knowledge of the game's programming to verify this completely, but it seems to make sense.

- Stormstrike is also 2 instant attacks, and theoretically could also be a similar case of both attacks benefiting from +crit charges from the card even if the first one crits.


I respect this site and it's inhabitants very much and would love some feedback on the above points. Could the PVP-oriented enhancement Shaman be the perfect fit for this card, due to resiliance, shocks, healing, and windfury/stormstrike mechanics?

I'm a little confused on what, specifically, makes this card better for enhancement PvP than a trinket with an on use +crit buff or even just a flat +crit rating.

The only time the card is better than just flat crit rating is when a consistant time between crits is more important than the average number of crits, ISB and flurry being the best examples. In a sustained raid DPS fight you might notice the card affording better DPS through flurry uptime than a trinket with the equivilant flat crit rating on it.

Keep in mind that the charges stack seperatly for melee and spell (at least I think they do). Resiliance not only lowers your effective crit rate but reduces the damage taken when crit so whatever gains you may realize from critting more often because a target has high resiliance will be diminished by the fact that you are critting for less. In PvP you would more than likely be far better off using a differnt trinket.

Critting more, but critting for less is a good thing for Enh in PvP - 10% more attack power and 30% haste is pretty huge.

Has anyone modeled this for a Ret pally yet? It seems so perfect for them.

If it works like Crusade then they stack seperately, meaning your magic attacks will increase your spell crit stack, and your melee will increase your melee crit stack when melee crits it removes the melee stack, and when spells crit it removes the spell stack.

Did you mean, because you do both magic and melee damage you gain more benifit from the card because it'll increase the chance for your shocks to crit and your melee?

I had heard that it was a single buff, and the description seems to indicate this:
"Equip: Each time one of your direct damage attacks does not critically strike, you gain 17 critical strike rating and 17 spell critical strike rating for the next 10 sec. This effect is consumed when you deal a critical strike."

As opposed to crusade where is specifies the seperation:
Equip: Each time you deal melee damage to an opponent, you gain 6 attack power for the next 10 sec., stacking up to 20 times. Each time you land a harmful spell on an opponent, you gain 8 spell damage for the next 10 sec., stacking up to 10 times.

I wrote a simple C++ program which models this trinket and I found it quite poor.

Basically with my 23% crit chance this trinket would give me around 2.5% more crit with 20% crit chance something like 3% more crit over 10 000 simulated hits (no dodges, parries, misses included).

I don't have this on my computer but I will upload it tomorrow from my work computer together with source code.

I just picked up both of the cards and did some testing in blasted lands (I know, not the best place). Combining the cards produced a higher dps rate than any of the other trinkets I normally use (Bloodlust broach, Hourglass, Abacus). Wrath in particular seemed to give me more of a boost than I had anticipated, due to extra WF crits and my Crit dmg metagem. However, I intentionally focus on AP and hit in my gear, so my regular unbuffed crit rate is only around 24%. Wrath might be less useful to someone with more crit rating, I know most enh shaman try to get as close to 30% as possible.

I haven't gotten many chances to do raid testing yet, but wrath has the same problem crusade does in PvE. You need to stay close and attack the target constantly for the buff to be useful, but some encounters don't allow that (I'm looking at you, Gruul.)

In PvP, I wouldn't bother with it. It does seem like a great anti-resiliance gem, but to the best of my knowledge on-crit effects still happen when resiliance negates the crit. (There's a thread around here somewhere that said that, but I'm not sure where it is.) It would take some testing to see if wrath was absorbed by resiliance, but even if it was I can't imagine the trinket being more useful than the 51 stam darkmoon cards.

Another thing to consider in PvP is that enh shaman have a *HARD* time reaching targets. In my 5v5 group, I generally spend the first part of the fight CCd or focused down from range, and wrath is useless in those situations.

Edit: One thing I forgot to mention was that it does help spell crit. If you take 19/42/0 like I do, wrath causes my elemental devastation to go off more. I'm not sure of the actual percent increase (I'll have to do longer tests with procwatch), but it was enough that I noticed. The highest I've seen wrath stack is 7, which is 119 spell crit. In raids that pushes my spell crit to around 10%. There might be a point where it's good to turn off auto attack and let the spell crit happen to get the extra 9% melee crit. Again, I'll have to do a lot more testing to see if this is worthwhile.

I stand corrected.

So to confirm... if fighting a target with resilience, this card's charges will only wipe if you actually crit on the target? And there will never be a case of a non-crit hit removing the charges. Right?

If so, this card is really great for PVP. It scales in effectiveness with the more resilience your opponent has.

So right, it wont be removed.