[Rogue/Warrior] Weapon Skill Adjustment Discussion - Page 10

Karmon · 07/23/07, 5:59 AM

Originally Posted by sp00n

You can take a look at the old Rogue DPS Spreadsheet Thread.
Various rogues have posted there that with 308 hit rating, 5% due to talents and 10 weapon skill through talents, they haven't missed anymore against level 73 boss mobs, so assuming that 1 skill gives 0.1% to hit agains level 73 (if boss level mobs do have a 25.5% chance to be missed).

But those test always had weponskill either as talent or on items!

I made a test as a 41/20/0 mutilate spec a few days back against Hydross.

The missrate against this boss was about 5.5 % (278 hitrating without any weapon skill items/talents).

Yesterday I respecced to a 15/41/5 but with only 1 point in Weaponsexpertise and the missrate
agains Morogrim was in line with the "usual wisdom". Unfortunatly i forgot to acitvate combatlog.
I only had Recap running .

I will try to push my rep at lower city to get Shapeshifter's Signet. Then I will repeat the test with 41/20/0 + that ring.

At the moment I tend to beleive that there is a discontinuity with +hit depending on difference between
weaponskill and bossdefense.

sp00n · 07/23/07, 10:48 AM

Well, if 308 + Talent + Weaponskill means that you don't miss against level 73 mobs anymore, the following conclusions can be made:
(308/15.769)+5= 24.532 to hit.
With this amount and the pre TBC assumption of a miss rate of 24% + 0.2% per level = 24.6% against a level 73 mob, you would very rarely miss.
310 hit rating would be sufficient to never miss a single swing (24.659 tohit).

Obviously this wasn't the case, and level 73 mobs are therefore presumed to have a 25.5% chance to be missed, because it plays so nicely with 24% + 0.5% per level difference and 0.1% per weapon skill.
You are right that we can't be sure that 1 weapon skill does indeed give 0.1% chance to hit in any cases against all mobs, so what we'd really need is:
Somebody to never miss against a level 73 mob without any weapon skill.

If the miss chance is at 25.5, then (25.5-5)*15.769= 323.2645 hit rating is required to never miss.
Or rather, with 323 hit rating you would have a very low chance to miss, and with 324 you shouldn't see it ever.

So after that we have determined the actual miss rate against a level 73 mob, and now we can more easily determine the amount of hit 1 point of weapon skill gives (or rather, 5 points and 10 points).

Do the same test with 1 point in weapon expertise, and with (25.5-5-(5*0.1))*15.769= 315.38 => 316 hit rating. If you miss with 316 hit rating, 5 points in weapon skill (or 10 skill below the assumed defense value of the mob) does not give you 0.1% to hit, but less.

This is a very long and tedious process which I certainly won't take part in.

I suspect you could do the tests with level 57-60 rogues, you'd have to adapt the hit rating conversion though.

Olgas · 07/23/07, 1:40 PM

Originally Posted by sp00n

You can take a look at the old Rogue DPS Spreadsheet Thread.
Various rogues have posted there that with 308 hit rating, 5% due to talents and 10 weapon skill through talents, they haven't missed anymore against level 73 boss mobs, so assuming that 1 skill gives 0.1% to hit agains level 73 (if boss level mobs do have a 25.5% chance to be missed).

Actually, crazily enough, this would be EXACTLY the outcome you would expect if you fully subscribed to the Wowwiki and Crezax-post theories.

Here's why:

Base chance to miss against a level 70 target = 5% + 19% (dual-wielding penalty) = 24%. Now apply, the rest of the wowwiki formula and you getting the following base miss table:

v. Level 70 mob: 24%
v. Level 71 mob: 24.5%
v. Level 72 mob: 25%
v. Level 73 mob: 27%

Your 10 Weapon skill essentially mean that you are only fighting a boss one level higher than you. So, your base miss rate against a Level 73 mob is therefore 24.5%

Then add your 308 +hit gear (19.53%) PLUS your talent (5%) to get 24.53% +hit.

In other words, your data can actually be used to support the Wowwiki formulation...

Trazhenko · 07/23/07, 2:32 PM

So, suppose we say Crezax is right, and further clarify that he meant the *first 4 points of +skill*.

If I'm rocking 367 skill (weap ex, Fang of Vashj, Shoulderpads of the stranger), my skill is above the defense of a level 73 raid boss. First 5 points are giving me .2% each, next 10 are .1% each, last 2 are? The old .04?

How about dodge and parry? I wonder if I should ditch the stranger shoulders and pick up T5.

evl · 07/23/07, 6:01 PM

Originally Posted by Trazhenko

SHow about dodge and parry? I wonder if I should ditch the stranger shoulders and pick up T5.

Same here, I'm starting to regret picking them up if all this is true.

Karmon · 07/23/07, 6:38 PM

Originally Posted by Olgas

Actually, crazily enough, this would be EXACTLY the outcome you would expect if you fully subscribed to the Wowwiki and Crezax-post theories.

Here's why:

Base chance to miss against a level 70 target = 5% + 19% (dual-wielding penalty) = 24%. Now apply, the rest of the wowwiki formula and you getting the following base miss table:

v. Level 70 mob: 24%
v. Level 71 mob: 24.5%
v. Level 72 mob: 25%
v. Level 73 mob: 27%

The 27% against lvl 73 seems to be ruled out by the data I posted here.

278 hitrating would imply 4.37% miss chance with 27% base miss.
113hits in 2023 attempts gives 5.586% miss with stddev of 0.2297.
The 5% confidence interval for normaldistributed samples with these values is
[4.584% 6.586%] (mean - 1.96*stddev/sqrt(N), mean + 1.96*stddev/sqrt(N))

I am not sure if we realy can use the confidence interval for normaldistributed data, so this is to be taken with care.

Unfortunatley I dont know how to find the interval for uniform or binomnal distributed data.
Maybe someone can enlighten me.

Karmon · 07/23/07, 6:54 PM

Originally Posted by sp00n

[..]
Do the same test with 1 point in weapon expertise, and with (25.5-5-(5*0.1))*15.769= 315.38 => 316 hit rating. If you miss with 316 hit rating, 5 points in weapon skill (or 10 skill below the assumed defense value of the mob) does not give you 0.1% to hit, but less.

Well I did tonight. 4 hours fun with Morogrim and Magtheridon.
316 hit, dualwielding daggers, 15/41/5 with 1 talent point in WeaponsExpertise

546 crits, 958 hits, 0 blocks, 524 glances, 0 misses, 134 dodges, 13 parries,
2175 total attacks
696007 damage, 320.003218 damage per swing
272574 hit damage, 284.524008 hit damage per swing
111788 glance damage, 213.335878 glance damage per swing
25.103% crits
44.046% hits
0.000% blocks
24.092% glancings
0.000% misses
6.161% dodges
0.598% parries

So with one point in wepons expertise the values for 25.5% base miss and 0.1% hit/skill
seems to be accurate.
But with 278 hitrating and no +skill I had a much higher missrate than predicted.

And besides that I am not sure if +skill on items and weapons expertise behave identical.
I need to get hold of that Shapeshifter's Signet with +20daggerrating

• Aldriana · 07/23/07, 6:55 PM

For large data sets - and 2023 trials certainly qualifies - a normal distribution is a very good model for the probability distribution. So I don't think you need to worry about that aspect.

Olgas · 07/23/07, 11:23 PM

Originally Posted by Karmon

The 27% against lvl 73 seems to be ruled out by the data I posted here.

278 hitrating would imply 4.37% miss chance with 27% base miss.
113hits in 2023 attempts gives 5.586% miss with stddev of 0.2297.
The 5% confidence interval for normaldistributed samples with these values is
[4.584% 6.586%] (mean - 1.96*stddev/sqrt(N), mean + 1.96*stddev/sqrt(N))

I am not sure if we realy can use the confidence interval for normaldistributed data, so this is to be taken with care.

Unfortunatley I dont know how to find the interval for uniform or binomnal distributed data.
Maybe someone can enlighten me.

So, does this data then mean that we can say with 95% confidence that your base miss rate against a Level 73 is somewhere between 27.21% and 29.21%?

(I'm decent with numbers, but statistics and especially standard deviation stuff always confused me. Worst grade I got in college. So apologies if I didn't understand what you said.)

Olgas · 07/23/07, 11:37 PM

Originally Posted by Karmon

Well I did tonight. 4 hours fun with Morogrim and Magtheridon.
316 hit, dualwielding daggers, 15/41/5 with 1 talent point in WeaponsExpertise

546 crits, 958 hits, 0 blocks, 524 glances, 0 misses, 134 dodges, 13 parries,
2175 total attacks
696007 damage, 320.003218 damage per swing
272574 hit damage, 284.524008 hit damage per swing
111788 glance damage, 213.335878 glance damage per swing
25.103% crits
44.046% hits
0.000% blocks
24.092% glancings
0.000% misses
6.161% dodges
0.598% parries

So with one point in wepons expertise the values for 25.5% base miss and 0.1% hit/skill
seems to be accurate.
But with 278 hitrating and no +skill I had a much higher missrate than predicted.

And besides that I am not sure if +skill on items and weapons expertise behave identical.
I need to get hold of that Shapeshifter's Signet with +20daggerrating

I know you're gonna hate me for saying this. But this test could also be cited as "proof" of the Crezax/Wowwiki formulation. Here's how:

Your one point in Weapon Expertise gives you +5 Weapon Skill, so, when you are fighting these mobs, it is as though you are fighting a Level 72 mob. Your base miss rate against a Level 72 mob is 25% (according to the Wowwiki formula).

You have 20.04% +hit from your gear and +5% to hit from Precision, or a total of 25.04%. Which is exactly the right amount you need to witness zero misses, just as you have done...

Look, I'm still not sure I believe Wowwiki either -- I'm just trying to point out that this last data run of yours could be interpreted in another way.

Olgas · 07/24/07, 12:16 AM

Originally Posted by Olgas

I'm gonna try a test of my own.

I'm a Dwarf Hunter. Which means I have a +5 Weapon Skill to Gun. According to the Wowwiki theory (and the Crezax theory for that matter), I should therefore only need +6% to hit to never miss.

So, I've intentionally gimped my +hit rating (by swapping out my +hit gems and putting in some +crit ones instead). My Hit Rating in DPS gear is now 100 (6.34%) and in my mana regen set (which I uses on long boss fights) its 98 (6.21%). I'm gonna run like this for a week, including raids to Gruul's and Kara and see what happens.

OK, here are the early returns from my test so far. I'm going to continue to run this test, but I thought the early returns were interesting enough to share.

I ran Gruul's this evening equipped as I described above (i.e., I never had more than 6.34% +hit gear equipped).

Here's the results:

Steady Shot: 358 hits, 99 crits, 0 misses
Auto Shot: 382 hits, 104 crits, 0 misses
Arcane Shot: 19 hits, 8 crits, 0 misses
Multi-Shot: 3 hits, 4 crits, 0 misses
Serpent Sting: 4 hits, 0 crits, 0 misses

Total: 766 hits, 215 crits, 0 misses

So, in total, I fired 981 shots and never missed a single one.

Now, 981 shots is not a huge sample size. But according to the "old pre-BC" theory, my miss rate against a Level 73 mob should have been at least 2.06%. (8.6% bass miss rate - 6.34% - .04%*5).

And even according to the new ".1% per skill level" theory, my miss rate should have been at least 1.76% (8.6% - 6.34% - .1%*5).

So, I should have seen something like 17 to 20 misses, give or take. Instead, I had ZERO.

And even if you assume a base miss rate of 8% (instead of 8.6%), you'd still expect to see something like 11 to 14 misses.

Now, I'll continue to run this test -- we definitely need a bigger sample size. But the early results definitely confirm that the "old pre-BC" theory of +hit is no longer valid. And they also seem to suggest that the ".1% hit per skill level" theory is also not valid. So far, the only "theory" that could explain these test results is the "Wowwiki/Crezax" theory...

This is still a small sample set. More data to come.

Wodahs · 07/24/07, 3:11 AM

Olgas, you didnt happen to have a moonkin with imp faerie fire did you?

With regards to melee hit, I am 0.10% away from hit cap on a lvl 73 mob, with 296 hit, precisions, and 16 skill. On roughly 40 archimonde runs, I missed, on average, 0.11%. That, to me, is pointing at things working how we think they work.
I do see the hit cap at 25.5% vs a lvl 73, dual wielding.

songster · 07/24/07, 3:56 AM

Originally Posted by Wodahs

Olgas, you didnt happen to have a moonkin with imp faerie fire did you?

With regards to melee hit, I am 0.10% away from hit cap on a lvl 73 mob, with 296 hit, precisions, and 16 skill. On roughly 40 archimonde runs, I missed, on average, 0.11%. That, to me, is pointing at things working how we think they work.
I do see the hit cap at 25.5% vs a lvl 73, dual wielding.

Once again this is a situation where you already *have* weaponskill, so you'll be subtracting out the exact effect we're trying to detect.

sp00n · 07/24/07, 4:31 AM

Originally Posted by Karmon

Well I did tonight. 4 hours fun with Morogrim and Magtheridon.
316 hit, dualwielding daggers, 15/41/5 with 1 talent point in WeaponsExpertise

546 crits, 958 hits, 0 blocks, 524 glances, 0 misses, 134 dodges, 13 parries,
2175 total attacks

Do you have enough hit rating (324) to run this again (oh noes!) with 0 points in WE?
Did you at least succeed on those two bosses?

Karmon · 07/24/07, 4:46 AM

Originally Posted by sp00n

Do you have enough hit rating (324) to run this again (oh noes!) with 0 points in WE?

Yeah I think I can replace 2 glinting noble topaz with 2 rigid dawnstones, netting in 324 hit....

Originally Posted by sp00n

Did you at least succeed on those two bosses?

Sadly not . Morogrim was our second night out with

We managed 64% but healing for the MT was thin.

Magtheridon we had a streak of "human errors"

After 3 7% wipes we called it a day. But we already
down him easily in previous weeks. It is always something with those guys that have to press the cubes :/
It is not our favorite boss at the moment..