This data set shows with 5% uncertainity that the real missrate lies in the
interval [4.584% 6.586%]
So the predicted 4.37% missrate based on 27% boss basemiss is too far away.

If we push the uncertainity to 0.1% the interval is larger and at the lower end covers 4.37%
(the factor 1.96 becomes about 3.21 in that case if I remeber correctly)
But IMO 2023 tries is to small for 0.1% confidence interval.

Exactly, and this is why we would need to find out how much base miss chance a level 73 mob has.
Once we have this, we can eliminate one unknown, or at least disprove a current assumption.

I severely doubt that the base miss chance is dependent on the actual weapon skill, but rather on the expected weapon skill (= level*5).
Of course every point above/below this expected weapon skill will change the miss rate, but not the base miss rate.

Once we know that value for certain, we can work on a formula for weapon skill, and if it really differs in benefit with increasing numbers.

I doubt there is a difference, but if there is one, one should see if there's also a difference between the talented +hit and hit rating through items.

Based on Olga's post and my experience (never seen a miss with a 2h weapon with 94 hit rating and 359 weapon skill) I guess the effect of WS on hit chance relates to the base miss chance on the target.

I think there's a need to look at the 1H formula, which has terms *both* for the level difference *and* for the weaponskill/defence difference. This being the case, why should 2H calculations be different?

Sp00n, what is the basis for your "severe doubt"?

Base miss rate is always a relative thing... attacker v. defender... why could it not be determined on actual Weapon Skill at the time. I think, it would be just as easy for the combat mechanics to work this way, as compared to any other...


Actually, if the effect of Weapon Skill is indeed non-linear, I think it would be easier for the combat system to work this way.

Let's not be overly influenced by old assumptions. The 1H formula that you refer to is the pre-BC model. And we are seeing a lot of evidence that suggests it doesn't apply anymore. So, if we are throwing it out, I think we probably need to throw all of it out -- meaning we should no longer necessarily believe that base miss is based both on level difference and weapon skill/defense difference.

Aye, fair point - though it does indeed seem to apply for 1-handers still if I recall right.

Do we have any boss fight parses kicking around from Mutilate rogues with no +weaponskill gear? That might give a preliminary indication as to whether (as suggested), the first few points of weaponskill count more than the next few.

Nope. No Moonkin.

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And, actually, the data you supplied would also be perfectly consistent with the Crezax / Wowwiki theory.

If you have +16 skill, then, when attacking a Level 73, t is as though you are attacking a mob of your same level. (Actually even 1 skill point better.)

Your base miss rate dual-wielding against a level 70 mob is 24%. And you have +18.77% hit from gear and +5% hit from Precision, for a total of 23.77%, which means your observed miss rate should be .23%. If you reduce your miss rate by an extra .1% (because of that 16th point in Weapon Skill), your observed miss rate would be .13%. Which is, essentially, what you are in fact seeing...

Interestingly, both formulas 2 and 3 are also consistent with the Crezax / Wowwiki theory.

Applying the Crezax / Wowwiki theory:
In formula two, the base miss rate would be 25%. And total +hit is 25.03%.
In formula three, the base miss rate would be 24.5%. And total +hit is 24.53%

Admittedly, formula 1 is problematic, as it implies a base miss rate greater than 28%... but that seems to be problematically high for all of the currently contending theories, no?

Would just like to point out that relation 1 above fits (within the 95% confidence limits) with a base miss chance vs boss mobs of 27.6 (the standard 8.6x% found for 2h weapons + 19 DW penalty).

I think the non-linear weapon skill theory is probably close to the truth, relation 2 and 3 are almost impossible to reconcile with 1 if this is not the case.

Hm, if it was based on the actual skill points, we wouldn't need to test against level 73 mobs at all.
Just use a weapon with a low enough weapon skill and see the results there, eg. 300 skill in maces, and fight against 63 mobs.

Of course the problem here would be gaining weapon skill while attacking itself, somewhat limiting the possible testing duration.

On the other hand, one could find out to which level you have gained enough hit through weapon skill to never miss a mob. That'd mean beating low level mobs until you encounter a miss. Maybe even with 0 hit rating equipped.
If you encounter one, proceed to another level below, and so on.

Unfortunately these mobs will die quite fast.

Another idea could be to let the mobs do the testing for you. Of course this would only be viable if mob miss rates follow the same mechanic as player mechanic for white attacks.
A level 70 mob should have a 5% miss chance against 350 defense. A level 67 would be then at 6.5% (if 0.1% per weapon skill / defense is correct).
Warriors, Paladins and Druids could then do a test with 365 defense against a level 70 mob (simulating the 3 level difference).
If the miss rates match, then miss rates is purely based on the weapon skill <-> defense skill ratio.

This is the point I tried to make in my post a few pages back. In my experience, the commonly accepted pre-BC theory was never right in the first place. I suspect that even with all of the changes made to weapon skill, the one thing that has stayed consistent is the fact that something is different against mobs of +3 levels or higher. Weapon skill has always, and still does, give you a bigger advantage against "orange" mobs than it does everything else.


I just want to throw out there my opinion, based on my own parses (which I unfortunately no longer have, so anyone is free to take this with a grain of salt; but this isn't just blind speculation), which is that weapon skill does indeed affect your base miss rate on everything. Having a single point of weapon skill (i.e. going from 350 to 351) effectively makes the level difference between you and a boss mob only 2 (and would remain at 2 from 351 to 355, until 356...at which point the difference would only be 1 level and so on). This makes that one theoretical point pretty significant, as I believe it brings your base missrate from something near 26-27% to 25.4%. Additional points above that would give you the consistently quoted 0.1% increase, as you are now (for combat purposes) dpsing a mob between 0-2 levels above you.

I admit, I don't know what the missrate against a lvl73 with 350 weapon skill (emphasis on 350) truly is. Pre-BC, I would have said it was precisely 27.6%, (based on the .2% per level weapon skill used to be), but now I can't say for sure.