I just thought to clarify one point that might be confusing people.
Under the Wowwiki theory, the base miss rates above are not the result of character Level differential. Rather, miss rate is determined solely by the difference in Weapon Skill v. Defense Skill. And the miss rates quoted above are therefore the effective base miss rates you get from attackers and defenders with standard Weapon Skill levels and Defense Levels:
-- If Weapon Skill and Defense Skill are equal, there is a 24% chance to miss (5% if not dual-wielding).
-- If the defender's Defense Skill is greater than the attacker's Weapon Skill by 1 to 10 points, then you add an additional .1% miss for each such point. (So, if the differential is 7 points, you add .7% to the 24%, for a base miss rate of 24.7%.)
-- If the defender's Defense Skill is greater than the attacker's Weapon Skill by more than 10 points, then you add and additional .2% miss for each such point. (So if the differential is 12 points, you add 2.4% to the 24%, for a miss rate of 7.4%.)
-- After your miss rate has been thus established, it can be effectively reduced by +hit gear and by +hit talents such as Precision or Surefootedness (a Hunter talent).
I'm sorry if I'm restating the obvious for everyone. But my reading of the last couple posts made me think that there might be some confusion in the way the theory is supposed to apply.
Again, I'm certainly not the author of this theory. I just seem to have fallen into the camp of supporting it because I haven't seen any data sets yet that it can't explain. To the contrary, it seems to explain the test results were seeing rather nicely.
(LOL, it'd be great if we could actually hear from the guy who espoused this theory on Wowwiki -- I wonder how the heck he came up with it!?)
Unfortunately the sampelsize is really too small to rule out the 1.048% missrate purely on statistical grounds.
5% confidence interval for Result 1 is: 0.803%-3.076%
5% confidence interval for Result 2 is: 0.661%-3.559%
In both cases 1.048% is inside the interval albeit at the lower end.
First, these results are both significantly on the low end, certainly greater than one standard deviation off and both biased in the same direction.
Second, since both tests were run under the same basic conditions (i.e same hit ratings, same level boss), the results can be added together giving 19 misses in 946 attempts for a miss rate of 2.008%.
Third, the 95% confidence limits for the combined sampling are 1.114-2.902% which does put the 1.048% miss rate on the outside looking in, making even such a small sample set significant.
Now, given that all sample sets I've seen so far where weapon skill is below 355 has shown this trend, the Crezax/Wowwiki theory seems to be holding up well.
(LOL, it'd be great if we could actually hear from the guy who espoused this theory on Wowwiki -- I wonder how the heck he came up with it!?)
Hmm...I typed in wow + Crezax into a search engine and found a wowwiki page describing Crezax as a former Blizzard employee who worked as an English language Community Manager on the European forums....
(For some reason, in your calculations above, you double-counted the effect of Weapon Skill. First, you reduced the miss rate to 24.5%. And then you also added .1% hit per point of weapon skill, too. This was an error. Once you had taken into account the effect of Weapon Skill by reducing the base miss rate, it was a mistake to factor it in again.)
I realized that error just this morning. Reminds me not to post after a night raiding
-- If Weapon Skill and Defense Skill are equal, there is a 24% chance to miss (5% if not dual-wielding).
-- If the defender's Defense Skill is greater than the attacker's Weapon Skill by 1 to 10 points, then you add an additional .1% miss for each such point. (So, if the differential is 7 points, you add .7% to the 24%, for a base miss rate of 24.7%.)
-- If the defender's Defense Skill is greater than the attacker's Weapon Skill by more than 10 points, then you add and additional .2% miss for each such point. (So if the differential is 12 points, you add 2.4% to the 24%, for a miss rate of 7.4%.)
-- After your miss rate has been thus established, it can be effectively reduced by +hit gear and by +hit talents such as Precision or Surefootedness (a Hunter talent).
This theory fits the data so far execpt the point when the difference of defense and weapon skill is greater than 10 points.
I think we can rule out 27% for that.
Also I am not a fan of fact that this theory needs to change the value of a factor (this 0.1 and 0.2) based
on the actual skill difference.
At the moment I think this change in the factor is only based on the fact that you have Weapons expertise skilled or not.
Note: having 1 point in Weapons expertise automatically gives you 5 skill effectifly putting you inside the 1-10 bracket so you could assume the change is based on skill difference only
So my working theory at the moment is:
Miss chance:
5 + dualwield penalty + (Bossdefense - weaponskill) * X;
X = 0.24 if NO weapons expertise skilled
X = 0.1 if some points in weapons exportise skilled
This can quickly disproved if someome has items worth of 20 skill rating and no Weapons expertise skilled.
Under that theory you would still miss with 5 skill (from 20 skillrating) and 316 hitrating from items
I think it's pretty reasonable to assume that the mechanics for weapon skill/defense is the same for both DW and 2h/1h+shield. The only difference in the miss chance between these two should be the DW penalty of 19%. If (yeah, I'm ofc not sure) this is true the results from the 2-paladin testing (earlier in this thread) could also be used to narrow this down.
Looking at the paladin with 350 weapon skill he had 7.971% misses (with a std of 0.291% not sure how to correctly compete confidence limits), this is (asfaik there is no way to turn it off) with the Draenei +1% tohit aura, but without any other +hit equip (I think?). This means that the 2h miss rate vs +3 boss mobs is 8.97 (0.291) % from that study. This again points to a miss chance being even higher than the 0.2 per skill difference (for a difference of 15 at least).
If we assume that +19% is all that happens when going to DW, we get a DW miss rate of 27.97 (0.291) % for a 15 skill difference.
edit: my computed confidence limits were crap, removing them.
Edit: Nevermind, post was irrelevant, its late and I miss-read:
Originally Posted by Karmon
Bugger me!
For my tests with 15/41/5 setup I also had a draenei shaman in my group.
The first test with 41/20/0 I did not had a draenei in my group I think.. Need to grep
the combatlog for windfury extra attacks...
Damn, damn, damn....
And thought he was talking about perhaps a confusion with the aura, not the Windfury Totem.
Try for 27%. That would mean 347 hitrating (assuming precision skilled)
Yeah. This would be a great test. If you see misses (really any misses at all that can't be explained by a debuff), then we will know that base miss rate against Level 73 bosses is greater than 27%.
Hmm...I typed in wow + Crezax into a search engine and found a wowwiki page describing Crezax as a former Blizzard employee who worked as an English language Community Manager on the European forums....
Yes, for those of you who don't know. Crezax was a former GM at Blizzard in the European forums. He made a blue post regarding the effect of Weapon Skill -- and it is this blue post of his which is part of the foundation for the "Crezax Wowwiki" theory.
I don't know how long he was a GM. Apparently, he left Blizzard a month or two after his blue post appeared.
no it is +- 1.96*std /sqrt(N) N the number of total attacks
well, haven't done statistics in a long time, so you'll have to forgive me, but I couldn't get your calculations (earlier in the thread) for the confidence limits to give the value you got. The number of attacks in your case was 2023 and the std=0.229 giving a confidence interval way narrower than the one you reported.
I guess the problem is the useage of %. it just messes my mind up , would probably be good if someone could do the correct thing.
Miss chance:
5 + dualwield penalty + (Bossdefense - weaponskill) * X;
X = 0.24 if NO weapons expertise skilled
X = 0.1 if some points in weapons exportise skilled
This can quickly disproved if someome has items worth of 20 skill rating and no Weapons expertise skilled.
Under that theory you would still miss with 5 skill (from 20 skillrating) and 316 hitrating from items
Surely it's vanishingly unlikely that Blizzard would put an exception in their entire code for melee hit rates, based on one talent in one tree of one class! It would set them up for hell when itemising weaponskill and balancing classes/specs.
So after an evening in SSC, I have some additonal data.
347 hitrating, 0 Wep Ex, no +skill items. 15/41/5 dualwielding daggers.
Against Hydross
237 crits, 431 hits, 0 blocks, 200 glances, 9 misses, 72 dodges, 15 parries,
964 total attacks
259691 damage, 269.389004 damage per swing
106145 hit damage, 246.276102 hit damage per swing
36877 glance damage, 184.385000 glance damage per swing
24.585% crits
44.710% hits
0.000% blocks
20.747% glancings
0.934% misses
7.469% dodges
1.556% parries
So the missrate against lvl 73 (bosses) is higher than 27%.
5% confidence interval is [0.326%,1.541%] so the expected missrate is probably between
27.32% and 28.54%
Against the trash up to Lurker I used a 307 (24.46%) hitrating setup.
The nagas were all lvl 71. Against those I observed no misses in 1761 total attacks.
The wowwiki missrate for lvl71 (24.5%) seems correct.
I also decided to raid without WEx today for some testing. We wiped a couple times on Al'ar (don't ask) and each time I swapped in more hit rating since I was still getting misses. Started at 347, then 356 and finally got 2 misses in phase 2 with 360 hit rating.
I swapped DFT for WSC to get 361 and killed VR and Solarian without a single miss so if there's still a miss chance at 27.89% +hit then it's pretty darn small.
I tried to /combatlog it but the gruul part got cut off somehow. I can post maulgar if you want, but the fact that I saw misses at all is the important part. No debuffs in either fight reduce hit.
I also decided to raid without WEx today for some testing. We wiped a couple times on Al'ar (don't ask) and each time I swapped in more hit rating since I was still getting misses. Started at 347, then 356 and finally got 2 misses in phase 2 with 360 hit rating.
I swapped DFT for WSC to get 361 and killed VR and Solarian without a single miss so if there's still a miss chance at 27.89% +hit then it's pretty darn small.
OK, here are the early returns from my test so far. I'm going to continue to run this test, but I thought the early returns were interesting enough to share.
I ran Gruul's this evening equipped as I described above (i.e., I never had more than 6.34% +hit gear equipped).
So, in total, I fired 981 shots and never missed a single one.
Now, 981 shots is not a huge sample size. But according to the "old pre-BC" theory, my miss rate against a Level 73 mob should have been at least 2.06%. (8.6% bass miss rate - 6.34% - .04%*5).
And even according to the new ".1% per skill level" theory, my miss rate should have been at least 1.76% (8.6% - 6.34% - .1%*5).
So, I should have seen something like 17 to 20 misses, give or take. Instead, I had ZERO.
And even if you assume a base miss rate of 8% (instead of 8.6%), you'd still expect to see something like 11 to 14 misses.
Now, I'll continue to run this test -- we definitely need a bigger sample size. But the early results definitely confirm that the "old pre-BC" theory of +hit is no longer valid. And they also seem to suggest that the ".1% hit per skill level" theory is also not valid. So far, the only "theory" that could explain these test results is the "Wowwiki/Crezax" theory...
This is still a small sample set. More data to come.
I did another Gruul's run this evening with exactly the same gear as I did the last time, just to see if I'd get a consistent result. (As a reminder I'm a Dwarf Hunter with +5 Skill in Guns. And I alternated between my full dps gear (currently with 100 hit (6.34%)), and my mana regen set (currently with 98 hit (6.21%).
So, in other words, this test seems to confirm the earlier findings. As a result of my +5 Weapon Skill in Guns, it is as though I'm fighting a Level 72 boss with a base miss rate of 6%.
__________________________________________
Now here is some other very interesting data point from these combined runs. Here are the combat statistics for my PET. Remember, a Hunter's pet is basically a standard melee fighter. However, one of my talents, Animal Handler, reduces my pet's chance to miss by 4%. In other words, it is kinda like the rogue's Precision talent, but for my Pet, and it gives 4% +hit.
Here are the results of my pet's 2402 regular melee attacks:
1220 Hits
538 Glancing Blows
317 Crits
139 Dodges
60 Parries
32 Absorbs
96 Misses
So, a realized miss rate of 3.997% !! Which would suggest a base miss rate of 8%.
Now, the above figures were just for my pet's standard melee attacks. He also has two "specials" Claw and Bite. When I combine his specials with his base melee attacks, we see that over the course of the two runs he attacked a total of 3853 times (regulars and specials) and missed a total of 159 times.
So, a fairly big sample size -- with a realized miss rate of 4.127%, implying a base miss rate of around 8.127% -- which is awfully darn close to exactly 8%...
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I do think it is interesting that we are seeing Rogues missing even when they have 347 hit gear equipped. I think the only sensible conclusion to be drawn from these tests is that the base miss rate must be higher than 27%. But, then, how MUCH higher? This data from my pet suggests that if the miss rate is higher than 27%, it's probably not that much higher.
But yet we have reports of misses occurring even with 360 hit equipped, which implies that the base miss rate must be at least 27.8%
Almost makes me wonder if the formula for dual-wielding and 2Hers works the same way...
________________________________________________
I'm going to continue to run this existing test for another run or so.
Then I'm going to switch back to Bows for a while (where I have no +Weapon Skill) and gradually increase my +hit gear over the course of several runs to see if I can't figure out the base miss rate for Level 73's that way. Specifically, I'm gonna try to see what happens if I equip exactly 127 hit (8%).
[..]
When I combine his specials with his base melee attacks, we see that over the course of the two runs he attacked a total of 3853 times (regulars and specials) and missed a total of 159 times.
[..]
I am not convinced that you really can sum the misses for autoattacks and specials. You only can
add the samples of identicaly statistical processes. Specials and autoattacks may have a different
expected hitrate.
Also comparing melee and ranged may not be proper.
I also decided to raid without WEx today for some testing. We wiped a couple times on Al'ar (don't ask) and each time I swapped in more hit rating since I was still getting misses. Started at 347, then 356 and finally got 2 misses in phase 2 with 360 hit rating.
I swapped DFT for WSC to get 361 and killed VR and Solarian without a single miss so if there's still a miss chance at 27.89% +hit then it's pretty darn small.
This seems very consistent w/ what we have been seeing of late. So assuming a 361 rating eliminates misses to the 1/10,000 degree, and 360 to 1/1000 degree (would account for the misses at 360 and the concept of 1% reductions never equaling true 0% missrate), what hit rating are we looking for "with" WE to achieve 1/1,000 and 1/10,000 miss rates?
Finding the single point hit rating differential to achieve these two points while utilizing WE will effectively determine which WE calculation is the most accurate (at least for purposes of 70 v 73bosses .... skew may occur for other applications, or when level cap raises again) Of course, it is possible that the inflection point lands in a spot wherein either calculation works for this case, but I'm guessing one will be 1-2 points off from the other.
[..]
(would account for the misses at 360 and the concept of 1% reductions never equaling true 0% missrate), what hit rating are we looking for "with" WE to achieve 1/1,000 and 1/10,000 miss rates?
[..]
AFAIK it is well established that you can acheive a true 0% hitrate with 2 points of weapons expertise and
308 hitrating from items.
The concept of a nonzero residual missrate seems not to apply for melee combat in WoW.
07/26/07, 12:36 AM
, would probably be good if someone could do the correct thing.
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