Olgas

I just thought to clarify one point that might be confusing people.

Under the Wowwiki theory, the base miss rates above are not the result of character Level differential. Rather, miss rate is determined solely by the difference in Weapon Skill v. Defense Skill. And the miss rates quoted above are therefore the effective base miss rates you get from attackers and defenders with standard Weapon Skill levels and Defense Levels:

Level 70: 350
Level 71: 355
Level 72: 360
Level 73: 365

The way the theory works is as follows:

-- If Weapon Skill and Defense Skill are equal, there is a 24% chance to miss (5% if not dual-wielding).

-- If the defender's Defense Skill is greater than the attacker's Weapon Skill by 1 to 10 points, then you add an additional .1% miss for each such point. (So, if the differential is 7 points, you add .7% to the 24%, for a base miss rate of 24.7%.)

-- If the defender's Defense Skill is greater than the attacker's Weapon Skill by more than 10 points, then you add and additional .2% miss for each such point. (So if the differential is 12 points, you add 2.4% to the 24%, for a miss rate of 7.4%.)

-- After your miss rate has been thus established, it can be effectively reduced by +hit gear and by +hit talents such as Precision or Surefootedness (a Hunter talent).

I'm sorry if I'm restating the obvious for everyone. But my reading of the last couple posts made me think that there might be some confusion in the way the theory is supposed to apply.

Again, I'm certainly not the author of this theory. I just seem to have fallen into the camp of supporting it because I haven't seen any data sets yet that it can't explain. To the contrary, it seems to explain the test results were seeing rather nicely.

(LOL, it'd be great if we could actually hear from the guy who espoused this theory on Wowwiki -- I wonder how the heck he came up with it!?)

 

Dontmindme

First, these results are both significantly on the low end, certainly greater than one standard deviation off and both biased in the same direction.
Second, since both tests were run under the same basic conditions (i.e same hit ratings, same level boss), the results can be added together giving 19 misses in 946 attempts for a miss rate of 2.008%.
Third, the 95% confidence limits for the combined sampling are 1.114-2.902% which does put the 1.048% miss rate on the outside looking in, making even such a small sample set significant.

Now, given that all sample sets I've seen so far where weapon skill is below 355 has shown this trend, the Crezax/Wowwiki theory seems to be holding up well.

 

Dontmindme

Hmm...I typed in wow + Crezax into a search engine and found a wowwiki page describing Crezax as a former Blizzard employee who worked as an English language Community Manager on the European forums....

 

Karmon

Try for 27%. That would mean 347 hitrating (assuming precision skilled)

 

Karmon

I realized that error just this morning. Reminds me not to post after a night raiding

So please all disregard my post #173.

 

Karmon

This theory fits the data so far execpt the point when the difference of defense and weapon skill is greater than 10 points.
I think we can rule out 27% for that.
Also I am not a fan of fact that this theory needs to change the value of a factor (this 0.1 and 0.2) based
on the actual skill difference.

At the moment I think this change in the factor is only based on the fact that you have Weapons expertise skilled or not.
Note: having 1 point in Weapons expertise automatically gives you 5 skill effectifly putting you inside the 1-10 bracket so you could assume the change is based on skill difference only

So my working theory at the moment is:

This can quickly disproved if someome has items worth of 20 skill rating and no Weapons expertise skilled.
Under that theory you would still miss with 5 skill (from 20 skillrating) and 316 hitrating from items

 

Gruntle

I think it's pretty reasonable to assume that the mechanics for weapon skill/defense is the same for both DW and 2h/1h+shield. The only difference in the miss chance between these two should be the DW penalty of 19%. If (yeah, I'm ofc not sure) this is true the results from the 2-paladin testing (earlier in this thread) could also be used to narrow this down.

Looking at the paladin with 350 weapon skill he had 7.971% misses (with a std of 0.291% not sure how to correctly compete confidence limits), this is (asfaik there is no way to turn it off) with the Draenei +1% tohit aura, but without any other +hit equip (I think?). This means that the 2h miss rate vs +3 boss mobs is 8.97 (0.291) % from that study. This again points to a miss chance being even higher than the 0.2 per skill difference (for a difference of 15 at least).

If we assume that +19% is all that happens when going to DW, we get a DW miss rate of 27.97 (0.291) % for a 15 skill difference.

edit: my computed confidence limits were crap, removing them.

 

Karmon

Nevermind. Was confused about the type of aura a draenei shaman gives

 

Karmon

no it is +- 1.96*std /sqrt(N) N the number of total attacks

 

Cyrithor

Aren't Draenai Shamans only 1% Spell hit aura? Its the Paladins/Warriors (and perhaps Hunters?) that are 1% Melee hit?

 

Base

Inspiring Presence - passive (Mages/Priests/Shaman only)
Increases the chance to hit with spells by 1% for you and all party members within 30 yards.

Heroic Presence - passive (Hunters/Paladins/Warriors only)
Increases chance to hit by 1% for you and all party members within 30 yards.


So Draenei Shaman should not influence melee +hit.

 

Cyrithor

Edit: Nevermind, post was irrelevant, its late and I miss-read:

And thought he was talking about perhaps a confusion with the aura, not the Windfury Totem.

 

Olgas

Yeah. This would be a great test. If you see misses (really any misses at all that can't be explained by a debuff), then we will know that base miss rate against Level 73 bosses is greater than 27%.

 

Olgas

Yes, for those of you who don't know. Crezax was a former GM at Blizzard in the European forums. He made a blue post regarding the effect of Weapon Skill -- and it is this blue post of his which is part of the foundation for the "Crezax Wowwiki" theory.

I don't know how long he was a GM. Apparently, he left Blizzard a month or two after his blue post appeared.

 

Gruntle

well, haven't done statistics in a long time, so you'll have to forgive me, but I couldn't get your calculations (earlier in the thread) for the confidence limits to give the value you got. The number of attacks in your case was 2023 and the std=0.229 giving a confidence interval way narrower than the one you reported.

I guess the problem is the useage of %. it just messes my mind up , would probably be good if someone could do the correct thing.

 

songster

Surely it's vanishingly unlikely that Blizzard would put an exception in their entire code for melee hit rates, based on one talent in one tree of one class! It would set them up for hell when itemising weaponskill and balancing classes/specs.

 

Karmon

So after an evening in SSC, I have some additonal data.

347 hitrating, 0 Wep Ex, no +skill items. 15/41/5 dualwielding daggers.
Against Hydross
237 crits, 431 hits, 0 blocks, 200 glances, 9 misses, 72 dodges, 15 parries,
964 total attacks
259691 damage, 269.389004 damage per swing
106145 hit damage, 246.276102 hit damage per swing
36877 glance damage, 184.385000 glance damage per swing
24.585% crits
44.710% hits
0.000% blocks
20.747% glancings
0.934% misses
7.469% dodges
1.556% parries

So the missrate against lvl 73 (bosses) is higher than 27%.
5% confidence interval is [0.326%,1.541%] so the expected missrate is probably between
27.32% and 28.54%

Against the trash up to Lurker I used a 307 (24.46%) hitrating setup.
The nagas were all lvl 71. Against those I observed no misses in 1761 total attacks.
The wowwiki missrate for lvl71 (24.5%) seems correct.

 

Sarlunas

I also decided to raid without WEx today for some testing. We wiped a couple times on Al'ar (don't ask) and each time I swapped in more hit rating since I was still getting misses. Started at 347, then 356 and finally got 2 misses in phase 2 with 360 hit rating.

Wow Web Stats

I swapped DFT for WSC to get 361 and killed VR and Solarian without a single miss so if there's still a miss chance at 27.89% +hit then it's pretty darn small.

Wow Web Stats
Wow Web Stats

Raiding without my DST is painful btw. :P

 

Trazhenko

I also dropped weap/ex to test.

Wearing no +skill gear:

I used 347 vs maulgar today and missed twice.

Then I used 356 vs gruul and missed 3 times.

I tried to /combatlog it but the gruul part got cut off somehow. I can post maulgar if you want, but the fact that I saw misses at all is the important part. No debuffs in either fight reduce hit.

 

• Aldriana

Based on the number of attacks, this is sufficient to say that the miss rate is under 28.21% with 95% confidence.

 

Olgas

I did another Gruul's run this evening with exactly the same gear as I did the last time, just to see if I'd get a consistent result. (As a reminder I'm a Dwarf Hunter with +5 Skill in Guns. And I alternated between my full dps gear (currently with 100 hit (6.34%)), and my mana regen set (currently with 98 hit (6.21%).

Adding the two runs together:

Steady Shot: 756 hits, 214 crits, 0 misses
Auto Shot: 812 hits, 229 crits, 0 misses
Arcane Shot: 42 hits, 16 crits, 0 misses
Multi-Shot: 10 hits, 13 crits, 0 misses
Serpent Sting: 4 hits, 0 crits, 0 misses

Total: 1624 hits, 472 crits, 0 misses

A total of 2096 shots fired, with zero misses.

So, in other words, this test seems to confirm the earlier findings. As a result of my +5 Weapon Skill in Guns, it is as though I'm fighting a Level 72 boss with a base miss rate of 6%.

__________________________________________

Now here is some other very interesting data point from these combined runs. Here are the combat statistics for my PET. Remember, a Hunter's pet is basically a standard melee fighter. However, one of my talents, Animal Handler, reduces my pet's chance to miss by 4%. In other words, it is kinda like the rogue's Precision talent, but for my Pet, and it gives 4% +hit.

Here are the results of my pet's 2402 regular melee attacks:
1220 Hits
538 Glancing Blows
317 Crits
139 Dodges
60 Parries
32 Absorbs
96 Misses

So, a realized miss rate of 3.997% !! Which would suggest a base miss rate of 8%.

Now, the above figures were just for my pet's standard melee attacks. He also has two "specials" Claw and Bite. When I combine his specials with his base melee attacks, we see that over the course of the two runs he attacked a total of 3853 times (regulars and specials) and missed a total of 159 times.

So, a fairly big sample size -- with a realized miss rate of 4.127%, implying a base miss rate of around 8.127% -- which is awfully darn close to exactly 8%...

_______________________________________________

I do think it is interesting that we are seeing Rogues missing even when they have 347 hit gear equipped. I think the only sensible conclusion to be drawn from these tests is that the base miss rate must be higher than 27%. But, then, how MUCH higher? This data from my pet suggests that if the miss rate is higher than 27%, it's probably not that much higher.

But yet we have reports of misses occurring even with 360 hit equipped, which implies that the base miss rate must be at least 27.8%

Almost makes me wonder if the formula for dual-wielding and 2Hers works the same way...

________________________________________________

I'm going to continue to run this existing test for another run or so.

Then I'm going to switch back to Bows for a while (where I have no +Weapon Skill) and gradually increase my +hit gear over the course of several runs to see if I can't figure out the base miss rate for Level 73's that way. Specifically, I'm gonna try to see what happens if I equip exactly 127 hit (8%).

 

Karmon

I am not convinced that you really can sum the misses for autoattacks and specials. You only can
add the samples of identicaly statistical processes. Specials and autoattacks may have a different
expected hitrate.

Also comparing melee and ranged may not be proper.

 

Maurice2u

This seems very consistent w/ what we have been seeing of late. So assuming a 361 rating eliminates misses to the 1/10,000 degree, and 360 to 1/1000 degree (would account for the misses at 360 and the concept of 1% reductions never equaling true 0% missrate), what hit rating are we looking for "with" WE to achieve 1/1,000 and 1/10,000 miss rates?

Finding the single point hit rating differential to achieve these two points while utilizing WE will effectively determine which WE calculation is the most accurate (at least for purposes of 70 v 73bosses .... skew may occur for other applications, or when level cap raises again) Of course, it is possible that the inflection point lands in a spot wherein either calculation works for this case, but I'm guessing one will be 1-2 points off from the other.

 

Karmon

AFAIK it is well established that you can acheive a true 0% hitrate with 2 points of weapons expertise and
308 hitrating from items.
The concept of a nonzero residual missrate seems not to apply for melee combat in WoW.

 

songster

<can o'worms>We're absolutely sure that your hit chance varies linearly with hit rating, yes?</can o'worms>