Before it gets locked, I brought up the thought in the Enh Sham thread that discussing and collecting data on this might warrant its own thread. The data we have is spread all over the place.
I think the consensus is 0.24 base miss for white. Add 0.01 per level difference. Finally, add (MobDefense-PlayerWeaponSkill)/2500. This results in 0.276 versus L73 mobs.
Ah, we just went over this this afternoon (roughly post 794+) in the shaman thread and they were reporting the rogues were saying 27.6. I'd really like to know the answer, so maybe this thread is a great way to consolidate across the classes.
Ah, we just went over this this afternoon (roughly post 794+) in the shaman thread and they were reporting the rogues were saying 27.6. I'd really like to know the answer, so maybe this thread is a great way to consolidate across the classes.
My shaman is an alt now so level 73s are slightly tougher to come by, but with a tad over 26% I still saw white misses. I could hit 27.6 with some resocketing, but testing would require a mob or two.
I'm fairly certain that the miss chance is not, in fact, 27.6%. My evidence? I parsed our Morogrim attempts tonight, and counted total white attacks and misses for each of the three rogues in the raid.
All three rogues had precision and weapon expertise.
Rogue #1 had 309 hit rating, and completed 2129 attacks without a miss. Under the best known model for weapon expertise, it gives 1% hit; hence if the base miss rate were 27.6%, his miss chance should be 27.6-5-1-13/205*309 = 2.00%, meaning that the odds of hitting 2129 attacks in a row are roughly 1 in 10^3615.
Meanwhile, under the assumption that the base miss chance is 25.5%, his miss chance would be zero - totally consistant.
Rogue 2 had 306 hit rating, and missed once in 2910 attacks. Again, his miss chance would be ~2% under the 27.6% theory, which is... similarly improbable.
Under the 25.5 theory, his miss chance would be .1%, so expected number of misses would be just under 3. I don't even need to do statistics to tell you that that's within statistical bounds.
Rogue 3 had 291 hit rating and missed 16 times in 1653 attacks. Under the 25.5 theory the miss chance would be 1.05%, so we'd expect 17 misses. Again, no statistics necessary.
Now, admittedly, it could be that weapon skill gives more +hit; however, I feel pretty confident in saying that the miss chance is 24.5% + whatever 10 points of weapon skill gives; and the best known theory in that direction is .1% per skill and 25.5% base miss.
Granted this may be a bit anecdotal, but I most certainly remember filling in for a Kara run in which our tank decided to try out his BS axe over his King's Defender for threat output reasons pre 2.1. He noticed very quickly that his orc racial was making up for a ton of missing hit as well as receiving less parries/misses/etc. I believe, this run was quite a bit ago, we estimated that his 5 skill was picking up for at least 2% hit or so.
I'll dig through some of the older SSC parses when my shaman was well over the 25.5% before I changed out though to back up the misses claims.
Granted this may be a bit anecdotal, but I most certainly remember filling in for a Kara run in which our tank decided to try out his BS axe over his King's Defender for threat output reasons pre 2.1. He noticed very quickly that his orc racial was making up for a ton of missing hit as well as receiving less parries/misses/etc. I believe, this run was quite a bit ago, we estimated that his 5 skill was picking up for at least 2% hit or so.
I'll dig through some of the older SSC parses when my shaman was well over the 25.5% before I changed out though to back up the misses claims.
Well, 1) it is, as you say, anecdotal, and 2) +skill also reduces enemy dodge rate by a significant amount, so the effect is larger than the amount of +hit granted. I think the current theory is that 5 skill would grant +.5% hit and another ~.4% in enemy dodge reduction for about 1% total. While 1% is less than the 2% estimated, I don't think you'd necessarily be able to tell the difference anecdotally.
From my own testing in-game pre 2.0, and post 2.0 the cap is 8.6% with a 2-hander, at that time we had many 2-hand Fury Warriors who used 7-9% hit with their 2-handers. Constantly did combat logs, checked and rechecked things, with 9% hit they did not miss, 8% they did, further into BC, like around now, I pushed myself up to 8.74% hit for Gruul and had 0 misses the entire encounter, when I dropped below to 8.44% hit, I had the once in a blue moon miss, very rare, but very noticable, 2 total over a 6 minute kill.
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Base miss rate for Dual-Weild is 25.5%, againts a lvl 73 (boss) mob. Each weapon skill level above 350 gives 0.1% hit. Precision gives 5%. Thus, WeapEx + Precision = 6% from talents.
This leaves 19.5% to gain from hit rating. 19.5 * 15.77 = 307.5
Therefor, you need 308 hit rating to NEVER miss. Armory me... I haven't missed on a boss mob in the last 2-3 weeks since I've been at 308 hit rating. Check the rogue DPS Spreadsheet for more answers.. somewhere around pages 40-60 I think (sorry, thats a large range.. lol)
Other people are reporting differently. Relwin, above, reports white misses above 26%.
I don't know the answer, but please post specific links, or the data itself, if you are going to assert an answer.
Well, the data posted both here and in the Rogue DPS spreadsheet thread makes it hard to see how the base miss rate could be much higher than 25.5. So if people *do* find themselved still missing occasionally above 26, it seems to me that either a) there was a hit-reduction debuff involved, or b) there is some hard hit cap wherein you can't banish the last .01% miss chance (or whatever).
All of our old parses are locally hosted so dodges and parries get lumped in with misses. I'll see if I can sneak into another guild's Gruul or something to get some data though. With 26.43% hit or so I was only getting ~3-5 misses per 800 swings or so with absolutely zero misses on 72's. I'll report back with absolute max hit gear on though, being that 2.1 helped out my rating a little.
I would be curious to know what the hit cap is for a warrior tank with 1h/shield, and a druid tank. I've seen mumblings about it being 8.6% for bears (as well as some debates regarding that number), but no numbers for a warrior while using a 1h and shield. I can say that it's definitely over 5.51% though, as I started having misses on specials when I dropped to 79 hit rating and +5 racial sword skill.
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I would be curious to know what the hit cap is for a warrior tank with 1h/shield, and a druid tank. I've seen mumblings about it being 8.6% for bears (as well as some debates regarding that number), but no numbers for a warrior while using a 1h and shield. I can say that it's definitely over 5.51% though, as I started having misses on specials when I dropped to 79 hit rating and +5 racial sword skill.
I put forward a theory of this in the Rogue Gear Spreadsheet thread - check out Rogue Gear Spreadsheet post 162 if you want to see the logic, but the short version is:
It seems plausible to me that the base miss rate for single-wielding is 8%, and that weapon skill for single-wielding gives .2% hit (as opposed to weapon skill while double wielding, which appears to give +.1% hit).
If true, it would mean that to never miss a level 73 while single-wielding, you would need:
126.2 hit rating at 350 weapon skill,
110.4 hit rating at 355 weapon skill, or
94.6 hit rating at 360 weapon skill
If some single-wielding classes would like to test at or around these values, I'd be interested to see the results.
Just wanted to throw out there for ppl to be careful with raid parsing, occaisionally there are turkeys in the raid (oomkin) and that totally skews numbers.
As would having a dranei in your group, for whatever reason, with the 1% hit aura.
Assuming said Draenei is a warrior, paladin, or hunter, anyway.
However, my guild had no boomkin druid at the Tidewalker fight mentioned, and the only Draenei in the guild are Shaman. As such, I don't think that's what's going on.
The only recorded misses that I have since reaching 308 hit rating are on Attumen thanks to that wonderful hit debuf. I check/clear my Recap after every fight.
Are you sure you're at 25.5%+ hit? Are you counting weapon skill as 0.1% per lvl over 350? 5% from Precision? Is this for a rogue or a shaman? Perhaps shaman is different (I don't see why it would be.. but maybe).
06/02/07, 8:12 PM
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