1% hit normally is 15.7 rating or 20.8 damage. With the eye of magtheridon you lose 5.15 damage per 1% hit, so that makes each 1% hit worth 25.3 damage. So 1 hit rating is still just as good as 1 spell damage, meaning with eye of magtheridon if you swap every point of hit rating to a point of spell damage, your DPS will be extremely similar. Of course with lower hit ratings you're gonna get overlapping procs (which I'm trying to figure out how to calcuate) but the proc rate is low enough to make it quite a non-factor, and more importantly it can only reduce the potency of the trinket which already isn't high enough for it to be worth using.
To sum it up for a fire mage even if you have the eye of mag you're still probably not gonna do much gear swapping that will up your DPS as a result, meaning that the DPS you will calculate for the eye with the +hit you're gonna have in the "planning to get soon" gear is what you should take into account. Which at the end means that trinket is inferior to other trinket(s) (quag's eye specifically!) if you look at the other trinket thread.
During the 10 seconds prior to your currently finishing cast, your chance of having at least one spell resisted is 1 - [your chance of having no spells resisted]
[top] 1 - (1 - resist chance for a single spell)^N, where N is the number of spells cast in the last 10 seconds. For Fireball, N
3, for Scorch, N=5-6, for Frostbolt N=3-4, etc. Note that these will depend on distance to the mob (for bolts), lag, haste, etc. Your expected benefit on a random spell is then given as 170 * [ 1 - ( 1 - resistChance)^N ]
For example, with Fireball spam and a 5% resist chance you'll get 170 * ( 1 - .95^3 ) = 24.2 average spell damage from the proc, accounting for overlap. Compare with .15 * 170 = 25.5 average damage when assuming no overlap.
You can easily see how binary resists are not affected by the "glancing blow" mechanism (or at least can be mitigated by curses and spell penetration) by checking out WWS reports for Shadow Priests.
Almost every raiding shadow priest will be at the +hit cap (from gear and Shadow Focus) and Mind Flay is a binary spell just like Frostbolt.
If Mind Flay was affected by the "glancing blow" mechanism then you'd expect a resist rate of 6 to 7%. However the resist rate is usually around the 1% mark (and obviously there's no partial resists).
And as for the Monte Carlo method, that's pretty much exactly what dedmonwaken's simulator does.
During the 10 seconds prior to your currently finishing cast, your chance of having at least one spell resisted is 1 - [your chance of having no spells resisted]
[top] 1 - (1 - resist chance for a single spell)^N, where N is the number of spells cast in the last 10 seconds. For Fireball, N
3, for Scorch, N=5-6, for Frostbolt N=3-4, etc. Note that these will depend on distance to the mob (for bolts), lag, haste, etc. Your expected benefit on a random spell is then given as 170 * [ 1 - ( 1 - resistChance)^N ]
For example, with Fireball spam and a 5% resist chance you'll get 170 * ( 1 - .95^3 ) = 24.2 average spell damage from the proc, accounting for overlap. Compare with .15 * 170 = 25.5 average damage when assuming no overlap.
You're not calculating the fact that you still get some use out of partial overlap.
Actually, I am. I'm calculating the probability of at least one spell cast within the last 10 seconds being a resist; partial overlap means that you in fact got at least two resists within the last 10 seconds, but as that doesn't make a whit of difference for the proc we don't need a special case for it. Any number of recent resists larger than 0 is effectively the same
Xerophyte's math is right and takes everything into account that doesn't include random fight mechanic that are unpredictible (such as getting stunned as soon as it procs and all other stuff that really don't matter when calculating these sort of things).
And again due to the value of +hit still being rather high after you equip the eye and the fact a lot of good gear already has +hit, you're not gonna run with much miss chance at all making this trinket rather useless. Granted if you somehow have a rather low hit rate it's good, but if you're killing mag you should already have good gear unless you're just leeching stuff off of your guild.
The only hope for this was with frost full resists, but according to the reports from posters above, it doesn't even work (which btw makes frost dps a lot better than it was looking on paper).
On a side note, is waterbolt a binary spell?
Alright, let's read through your post again. (fyi: I love your posts usually as im a raid leader (for mages anyway) and theorycraft for all class's but I have to input on this one)
Originally Posted by Copernicus
In the worst case scenario, a hit capped fireball-spamming mage will have it proc once every 5.5 minutes. This gives the mage +54 damage with a bonus proc of 170 * 10/330 -> +5.15 damage for an effective trinket of 59.15 damage. Icon of the Silver Crescent is 43 damage with an on-use of 155 * 20/120 -> 68 damage.
For this statement, 1 proc per 5.5 mins. 80% of the fights have a 10mins enrage timer. Basicly one proc per boss fight. It's useless except for the static +dmg. (baring the sporatic resists, but were theorycrafting here)
Originally Posted by Copernicus
Now let's downgrade that mage to a 3% miss rating. They get an additional 2 procs every 5.5 minutes. Each proc is worth about 5.15 damage, so the mage gains 10.3 damage on their trinket and the value of Eye of Magtheridon goes to 69.45. That value is then modified to 68.04 based on the increased miss rate, makign the Eye slightly better than Icon. There is a sweet spot for balancing resist rates vs Eye of Magtheridon procs. After all, with zero hit an Eye is giving an effective damage of 118.7 (after reducing for resist rates)- but the rest of the mage's stats are suffering from neglecting hit rating so much. That simple theorycraft is also ignoring the possibility of overlapping procs. Like I said earlier, I'm at 3% miss rate and I'm using the Eye as an uncontrolled Icon. At some point I'll reach the hit cap and have all my cards gathered. When that happens, I'll switch over to the Crusade card and the Icon, but for now I'm using the Eye and Icon and it's working out fine.
Ok, 2 procs per 5.5 mins. Better, but still in theory, 2 procs per boss fights. That's not really maximizing what you can get from that trinket slot. (Obviously, again, theorycrafting, ignore sporatic resists for this conversation) Then you state that the Eye is good till you can farm the gold to get the Crusade deck and use that trinket. That's fine, but what if you have an affliction lock or shadow priest in the raid that can benefit way more from this than you can, would it not be more beneficial to the raid's overall dps to let the affliction warlocks and/or shadow priests have it first so they can get the best trinket they can get (rather than you get it for a temporary upgrade and then let it rot in the bank). I think so, but that's my personal opinion.
Originally Posted by Copernicus
To get back to the original poster's question, a true theorycrafter would run a Monte Carlo experiment to determine the best hit percentage to maximize Eye procs while minimizing overlaps. Me, I'll just guess that you'll want a hit percentage in the range of 12-14%. Keep in mind that the biggest advantage of the Eye is that once the mage reaches 12% or so hit rating they don't really have to concentrate on getting more hit gear to try to reach the cap.
I noticed here that you're refering to the original poster but yet you talk about mages again. The OP is an Affliction Warlock. This thread kind of got hijacked by mages unfortunatly.
Originally Posted by Copernicus
Of course, the real conclusion is to just buy the Blessings Deck, get the Icon of the Silver Crescent, and cap your mage's hit percentage. There's discussion in another thread concerning the value of mage trinkets, but those two are just so powerful and easy to get.
Here you state it again, it's useless because there is better. Don't take loot if you don't intend on keeping it for the long term. (Hey it's fine with me if it was about to rot since the shadow priests and warlocks already have thiers) Here you also state "easy to get", why take loot if an easier, more valuable and "so powerful" upgrade is available. (my opinion here again as a raid leader)
To sum it up, I don't mind mages taking this trinket if the warlocks or shadow priests have theirs already as they benefit more from static +dmg than any other class. Frost mages are some what of an exception here but this thread seems to be mainly discussing Fire/Elemental mages. I would HIGHLY recommend to any mage that is reading this and intending to get the Eye to wait and let the warlocks and shadow priests get their best and most available +dmg trinket in the game at the moment (obviously, affliction locks primarly as Demo/Destro locks are part of the canon dps theory - depending on their play style). Be thoughtful to the rest of the raid when you're aiming for this trinket.
Now, to the OP. I am currently using Eye of Mag with approx 3.7% resist rate. I have full Affliction and love this trinket. (You can check my specific gear on the armory Extih @ Mal'Ganis) The only reason I was thinking of getting more hit was for Soul Shatter, but following other conversations on these forums I am currently setting up ItemRack to switch to +hit weapons, shatter and back to dps weapons. The trinket is up atleast once every rotation, because of this, the trinket will overlap. I was thinking of adding some more hit to be over 4% to avoid overlapping but have not completly tested it yet. I will keep you posted on this after this Wednesday.
I noticed here that you're refering to the original poster but yet you talk about mages again. The OP is an Affliction Warlock. This thread kind of got hijacked by mages unfortunatly.
Sorry about that, I hopped into this thread because of the Frostbolt resist thing and it bothered me when someone said it was useless.
I also think that for Affliction Locks and Shadow Priests, as well as any caster DPS class in general, the best option is the Blessings deck plus Icon. Blessings is close to a static +80 damage and Icon has the advantage of controlled burst.
I also think that for Affliction Locks and Shadow Priests, as well as any caster DPS class in general, the best option is the Blessings deck plus Icon. Blessings is close to a static +80 damage and Icon has the advantage of controlled burst.
Yes, I considered this as well but then I remembered our threat issues (Not a problem every 5mins). Hydross comes to mind where if you want to maximize your DoT dps between transitions, you have to stop a few seconds here and there and therefore lose the buff. Many other fights come to mind but that's the only reason I found +54 static dmg with a chance of 170 (if you time your dot refreshing around procs) to be way more beneficial for affliction locks in any raiding instance to date.
You could argue that this can be a problem for any class, but this is my personal opinion and from experience.
For an affliction lock with low hit this trinket is indeed more interesting. while you should have 1% chance to get your dots resisted or close to it, you're probably not going to have anywhere near max chance to hit with shadowbolts when you itemize yourself for maxing your DoTs.
Since I tried to estimate benefit of Maghteridon's Eye for Warlocks, I added calculation for that in my DPS XLS sheet , Warlock DPS XLS
In theory, it depends on your hit% gear, on your talents (suppression...), and which spells you use and how often (differs for afflic/destro etc).
In XLS i used actual already calculated values for parameters from above, and calculate "uptime" from trinket, which is then used to calculate average additional +dmg efefct of trinket. Also, that added damage is automatically included to influence total DPS.
Based on that, it is easy both to check how much would trinket increase your DPS, and to see how it behave with adding more +hit gear. As we expected, it shows that adding +hit still increase total DPS, even with Eye.
But interesting thing to note is change that Eye make to "stat equivalents" relations - where it is shown how much +1hit is equivalent in +dmg.
It was already present as feature in XLS, and it is also different for different builds - for example, afflic with 2 in suppression, 7% hit and 1k +dmg values 1 +hit as about 1.09 +dmg, while demo lock with same gear values 1 +hit more, at about 1.36 +dmg (since no supression, and demo use more SBs)
Now, numbers with Eye shows that value of +1hit for demo drops from 1.36 to 1.03, and for afflic it drops from 1.09 to 0.70. This is very important, since it shows that Magtheridons Eye decrease value of +hit, without lowering DPS, which is good since it makes easier for warlock to chose +dmg items over +hit items, and while +hit will eventually get capped (and new items with unavoidable +hit will be waste after that), +dmg is not capped.
BTW, I included few more trinket effects in XLS, and just for comparition, for warlock with similar stats as above, benefits from using those are:
- Maghteridon's Eye effect adds about 2.5% on total DPS
- Spellstrike set bonus adds about 0.8% on total DPS
- Silver Crescent effect adds about 1.3% on total DPS
- Quagmirran's Eye effect adds about 0.7% on total DPS
Conclusion for Magtheridon's Eye:
1) if is one of best +dmg trinkets if we look at 54+dmg
2) it has very good additional +dmg from effect, about 50 at 7% hit
3) while additional effect gets lower with more +hit, total lock DPS still increase with more +hit, so effect is always bonus to DPS regardless of +hit
4) trinket reduce value of future +hit gear compared +dmg, which is good since it frees lock to go for +dmg items
You got one thing wrong - while your DPS doesn't drop when you increase +hit, the amount of DPS generated by the trinket DOES drop. More hit makes this trinket less powerful. Try equipping some more optimal/epic/etc gear that would naturally have more hit on it and then check again how good that trinket is.
Again while your DPS still increases with more +hit, the value of this trinket DROPS (keeping the total DPS still higher than it was due to more hit). At one point or another, unless this trinket is still good with 1% proc chance (which it definitely isn't), the value of this trinket drops below other trinkets. If your spreadsheet is as good as it sounds by your posts, finding that point should be very easy, and then finding out if you'll reach that point in the near future only takes a quick sweep over epic cloth gear on wowhead.
galzohar, I never said that amount of DPS by trinket does not drop, so i dont think that i "got that wrong"
I said that even without effect (at +54dmg) this is good trinket, and that effect is always positive, no matter how much +hit you have ... it starts as great effect (about +50 at 7% hit) , and ends up as something you can almost ignore (about +7 at 16+%hit) , but even with +61 dmg, that is good trinket. And it has bonus effect that it reduce importance of your +hit stats, so you can earlier choose +dmg over +hit items.
If you want to compare it to some specific trinket, you can use XLS, and find at what point in +hit that trinket gets worse compared to some other trinket .
If we go to original question in thread:
"My question is this - is there some new +hit percentage I should be looking for with this trinket? Is it powerful enough to ignore +hit for the most part? Should I still aim to be capped at +16%? Or am I mistaken completely and should I ditch it for Quagmirran's Eye?"
1) there is no hit% that you need to "aim to", if you use this trinket - you should still try to get your hit maxed
2) Magtheridon's Eye is better than Quagmiran's Eye even at capped hit
3) I dont know many trinketa better than Magtheridon's Eye (after certain +hit). One is Darkmoons:Crusader, and it gets better at about 12% hit . Icon of Silver Crescent get to be about same to Maghteridons eye after 15% hit. Exact numbers differs for different locks, but could be checked for different stats in XLS
If you're hit capped and aren't hurting for mana, quag's eye is more DPS. And quag's haste somewhat scales with gear, too, so while it starts good for the average mage, by the time you're at mag you should have the gear for quag's eye to be clearly superior DPS to eye of mag.
And icon of the silver cresent is also better than the eye at capped hit.
Both of those trinkets are obtained from heroics, which are much easier than magtheridon, too.
06/11/07, 7:30 PM
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