Math doesn't lie. If we are missing somthing they are not telling us its possible it might not be a nerf but from the information released so far the math has been done. It's a nerf (unless you have terrible gear).
Numbers can mislead though, and there is always bad mathematicans. We are making assumptions here, so better wait for ptr and see.
After announced changes this tread quickly degenerated to official forums quality.
Chain lightning doesn't scale as well to begin with and is very unlikely to produce significantly better results. If better at all with the further coeff. reduction in 2.3 ...
This is false, unless I missed something. Granted, CL scaling will be hurt more by the changes than LB, but still it still scales slightly better than LB.
************************
Another note, is that the 50% equality for the old and new Elemental Focus is too low. In reality, the new LO bumps the rte up, since you now have a much higher chance for LO to proc the buff.
So uptime for the 2.3 EF is now 1 - ((1-Crit)^2 * (1-.25*Crit)^2)
Uptime for the 2.2 EF is 1 - ((1-Crit) * (1-.05 * Crit))
The equality yields a crit rate of 55.78%. So we can safely say that the new talent promises to be a mana buff for every shaman with LO, absent counter specific buffs. This is even discounting the fact that you can plan your CLs to always occur under a clear cast in 2.3.
Numbers can mislead though, and there is always bad mathematicans. We are making assumptions here, so better wait for ptr and see.
After announced changes this tread quickly degenerated to official forums quality.
Allowing changes to go through without mathematical criticism is what causes these bad changes to go through. These forums thrive on theorycrafting both in pure theory and in practice. If you want to critique the bad mathematicians, go for it, but statements such as "wait and see" are the kind we come here to avoid.
We have made a lot of mistakes on these forums, but by and large the numbers that are done here are accurate, critically tested and relevant. If you want to wait and see, great, but the rest of us would like to prevent detrimental changes from going through. In my experience it is one hell of a lot easier to get something nerfed that is too strong than to get it buffed because its too weak. If it turns out we give them numbers and they boost us for the PTRs, I'd rather they worked with a higher benchmark than a lower one.
All the assumptions we have made are based on Blizzard posters. I don't think any of the assumptions we have made are out of line with the changes they have done in the past. I don't mean to sensationalize this to a point of the "mage tax" fiasco, but our change is identical to theirs, its just being subtracted on our base cast time rather than our talents.
Where do you suspect our assumptions are off? I'd happily discuss that, but lack of discussion does not yield positive results.
This is even discounting the fact that you can plan your CLs to always occur under a clear cast in 2.3.
This is an excellent point.
If you want to critique the bad mathematicians, go for it, but statements such as "wait and see" are the kind we come here to avoid.
When we're getting incomplete patch notes, they really aren't. It is stupid to get upset over a change that isn't on PTR yet with potentially incomplete information about what that change is. We can run some preliminary numbers and wring our collective hands, but going for your torches and pitchforks before it's actually had a chance to be tested is what we come here to avoid.
Originally Posted by CheshireCat
Eh, my nostalgia goggles aren't as good as they used to be.
Where do you suspect our assumptions are off? I'd happily discuss that, but lack of discussion does not yield positive results.
That's the thing though. No one has done a good model of 2.3 dps that accounts for:
A) LO proccing synergy;
B)the higher dps/lower dpm rotations available to the "average BT shaman" after the patch; and
C) the higher damage available from swapping mana conservation gear/consumables to more dps focused gear/consumables.
Currently, a full LBx3+CL rotation uses 670 mp5, assuming a 46% crit rate (approaching best case) 0.2 latency, and the -25 mana on LB/CL totem. I don't think it is realistic to say that the average shaman can sustain that without a very high level of raid support.
Post-patch, this falls to 543 mp5 using the +83 dmg totem instead. Combined with the mana spring and water shield changes, a large number of shaman will be able to use a higher dps rotation/gear than is possible in 2.2.
So I do think that it's appropriate to criticize the rush to judgment that's occurred over the last 10 pages, given the complete lack of realistic theorycrafting we've seen.
That's the thing though. No one has done a good model of 2.3 dps that accounts for:
A) LO proccing synergy;
B)the higher dps/lower dpm rotations available to the "average BT shaman" after the patch; and
C) the higher damage available from swapping mana conservation gear/consumables to more dps focused gear/consumables.
Currently, a full LBx3+CL rotation uses 670 mp5, assuming a 46% crit rate (approaching best case) 0.2 latency, and the -25 mana on LB/CL totem. I don't think it is realistic to say that the average shaman can sustain that without a very high level of raid support.
Post-patch, this falls to 543 mp5 using the +83 dmg totem instead. Combined with the mana spring and water shield changes, a large number of shaman will be able to use a higher dps rotation/gear than is possible in 2.2.
So I do think that it's appropriate to criticize the rush to judgment that's occurred over the last 10 pages, given the complete lack of realistic theorycrafting we've seen.
I thought we were talking about pure DPS and not mana problems? TBH, I don't see why everyone is whining about the mana as it is now. As long as you have a Shadow Priest, you don't even have to chainpot to keep your mana up using only LB. Of course if you add in CL/Fire Nova totem, things will change. But I hardly drop below half my mana and pot once every 5 min or so. But I also know there is a lot of difference between different Shadow Priests. And with two in your group (yes it does happend sometimes) it is impossible to drop below 1-2k mana, no matter how hard you try.
I personally think the mana consumption if sine as it is now, since you generally is in a caster group together with a Shadow Priest. Without Shadow Priest and with some BT/Hyjal gear, you can keep up your mana chainpotting for a standard 10 min enrage fight.
I thought we were talking about pure DPS and not mana problems? TBH, I don't see why everyone is whining about the mana as it is now. As long as you have a Shadow Priest, you don't even have to chainpot to keep your mana up using only LB. Of course if you add in CL/Fire Nova totem, things will change. But I hardly drop below half my mana and pot once every 5 min or so. But I also know there is a lot of difference between different Shadow Priests. And with two in your group (yes it does happend sometimes) it is impossible to drop below 1-2k mana, no matter how hard you try.
I personally think the mana consumption if sine as it is now, since you generally is in a caster group together with a Shadow Priest. Without Shadow Priest and with some BT/Hyjal gear, you can keep up your mana chainpotting for a standard 10 min enrage fight.
This is exactly my point. No matter if the mana returns are amazing, it won't affect me, or most elemental shaman in well built groups. From a pure damage potential standpoint, I do not see what information we are asking. We know the damage coefficients, we know the proc rates, and we know our own average gear. We can factor in mana if it is evident we would run OOM using these ideals, but in practice, I do not.
As an aside, they did mention they were thinking about changing some of the working of Lightning Shield, I am curious what exactly they are considering doing, as an offensive bonus added to this would be very welcome to me.
I understanding hesitation on a rush to judgment, but I am not seeing what X factor we don't know for the purposes of an ideal DPS max/rotation.
Dear god this thread has exploded. Prepare for massive quoting!
Originally Posted by Chemdog
Because itemization is so limited and a 2% nerf, it shouldn't really shouldn't make much of a difference, but...
Bink, are you gonna change your shamanstats spreadsheet to rebalance stat weights?
I'm currently re-working ShamSpells (renamed shamandps) to work with 2.2 and 2.3 changes, and allow comparisons between the two.
Originally Posted by Nite_Moogle
Use [code] to preserve spacing. I think you overlooked that LO procs will also be able to proc clearcast and that's not an insignificant with a 20% proc rate.
One of the changes I've made to ShamSpells includes the fact that you can proc CC off LO.
Originally Posted by Kasi
Except mana isn't an issue for a raiding shaman, giving the prevelence of shadow priests these days. Even without a shadow priest I had no issue in sustaining full dps on a 10 minute Prince fight in Kara with proper use of consumables, heroic totem and just BoW. If either of a shadow priest or JoW is up, I have no mana issues. All it means is that I can't use CL in my rotations and just do LB spam.. And these changes to CC and LO with clear casting are not going to make CL a valid spell in a rotation without a SP. Because the clearcasting will now be 40%, leaving CL at still well over 400 mana and unsustainable.
This is what pisses me off. These changes are completely useless. Threat is not an issue with elemental shamans. Mana is not an issue with intelligent gearing, unless you have a 12+ minute fight (only 1-2 of those in the game). All this does for any raiding shaman in a progression guild out there is nerfs their dps by 8% at a time where shamans top out at 1k-1200 dps and easily see most other classes doing a lot more. Add in that our only buff to group is totem of wrath and you can see why resto sounds a lot better.
Btw, even if this change to healing to dmg gear gave us better numbers (which I doubt since it will likely only be for + healing gear, not + dmg gear) this change would also apply to warlocks, shadow priests and mages, leaving us in the same position relative to those classes that we are now.
Threat is an issue with elemental shaman, as it is with spriests. Mana is an issue with both (funnily enough).
Originally Posted by Jini
You are not using the updated LB/CL mana costs, not that I know what they are. Eyonix claimed that they will be reduced.
I'm assuming that they are scaled down proportionally with the cast time reduction.
Originally Posted by Nite_Moogle
It's probably safe to guess they're simply going to be scaled down from what they are to the appropriate cost for their cast time. The untalented mana per second consumption will probably not change.
If you think this is the last change that Elemental will see, you're a fool. It is much more likely that they realize this is a reduction, but it is done in such a manner that playstyles will be altered and they don't want to do too much at once. The coefficient change was needed. Right now if not for the depth restrictions you could take 6 points in the tree that changes your damage from laughable to competitive. EF being one point is a tremendous steal and LM's current scaling method eliminates the need for any other interesting abilities like Molten Fury or Winter's Chill. The tree is hamstrung by the totality of LM's power. You simply cannot skip it and do competitive damage, even if you take everything else in the tree -- that is not true for improved fireball or improved frostbolt. They are incredibly important talents, but none of them is as truly essential as LM. The changes also flatten out the damage done, which means less one-shotting potential, which means options for more interesting abilities. As Bink said, even moving the proc rate of LO up another 5% at max rank is enough in and of itself to completely wipe out the damage difference.
One other thing I'll do before making a general summery is to talk to some of the Mage/Lock theorycrafters to see how the 2.3 changes increase their damage outputs.
Originally Posted by Jini
So in theory we're looking at:
Chain Lightning: 835/2.5*2 = 668 mana
Lightning: 330/3*2.5 = 275 mana.
These are the figures I'm using at the moment. Accurate figures should be out once we get a PTR up.
Originally Posted by Daidalos
Math doesn't lie. If we are missing somthing they are not telling us its possible it might not be a nerf but from the information released so far the math has been done. It's a nerf (unless you have terrible gear).
Math doesn't lie, but the logic behind the math can be wrong.
Originally Posted by Zure
The conversation seems to really have degenerated in this thread.
The Facts
The most rigorous analysis we have so far points to a relatively minor loss in DPS (4%) before accouting for:
*increased TLC procs from LO (a little under 20 dps for a 40% crit shaman);
*the ability to add CLs into your rotation. This should yield a 6% dps increase during the time you are using a CL rotation, assuming 1200 dmg/40% crit/0.2 latency.
According to my rough calculations, Lightning Bolt plus Chain lightning whenever it's cooldown is up and Elemental Focus has procced is roughly a 3% increase in mana use over LB spam 2.2 (again assuming 40% crit rate, new mana spring, and a +dmg relic in both set ups). So basically anyone who was able to LB spam in 2.2 with a pool of mana remaining can adopt a near full LB/CL rotation.
The challenge
Thus, I challenge anyone to show how elemental shaman in realistic gear will see a damage drop for a fight of sufficient duration that he could not previously have used a full LBx3+CL rotation for the majority of the battle.
For those fights where LBx3+CL was previously possible using SMPs, I challenge anyone to show that DPS will decline by more than 1% after destro pot usage.
For fights short enough such that a full LB/CL rotation was possible without using SMPs, I give up -- shaman dps in these fights is hit with the nerf bat, by roughly 2% ;-).
That's what I'm working on atm. Next step is to get CL/LB rotations in, and then we should start seeing how the changes are really affecting us.
Originally Posted by Moshne
I think we want to be careful saying we "want scorch." We need an ability that does not take a debuff slot that is not already being taken. Ideally we want CoE, granted this would add a trivial amount to rogue damage, and 10% to half of the enhancement shock rotation, the gain for us would be incredible. The only concern that would exist would be at end game when you have many mages going Arcane over fire, making us the only ones begging for COE.
GG for quoting something to do with Flame Shock being added into rotations.
I did some more napkin math to come up with the relative increase in an average LB damage bolt caused by more frequent LO procs causing the lightning capacitor to stack up faster. In english: LO goes off more, which means you have more spells critting, which means your LC goes off more often. If you don't care how I came to my conclusions, skip to the bottom two charts (and their explanations), otherwise continue.
Anyway, I started by figuring out how many casts it takes to get LC to go off (3/crit), and then multiplying that by (1 - LO proc). Intuitively I think this works out, but I could very well be wrong.
Now, for a nice mini table. On the left is crit %, on the right is the average damage increase on an LB from 2.2 to 2.3.
Basically, this offshoots some of the damage lost by the coefficient change. To put it in perspective, the difference between LB damage at 34% crit and 1000 damage is 2059.51 in 2.2 versus 1985.81 in 2.3. If you factor in the 22.04 increase (caused by LC), the 1985.81 becomes 2007.85. This reduces the nerf from 3.3% to 2.5%, which is again very substantial, especially considering I am not using outlandish values at all.
Time to put it all in perspective. At the top will be changing values of +damage, on the left are the various crit values, and the combination of the two gives % damage dealt that was lost going from 2.2 to 2.3.
Just eyeballing the two charts, it seems to me that factoring in LC reduces the severity of the nerf by about 1%, meaning it's -3% damage instead of -4%, etc.
Added in a LB/CL rotation mechanism, and although I don't think it's completely accurate (I've done some averaging to get the rotation to fit into my current calculations), it should give us a good idea of how the patch will affect us.
Using 2.2 and a 3/0 rotation as a base line, and assuming massive excess mana, 2.2 with 3/1 is a loss of ~9%, 2.3 with 3/0 is a loss of ~5%, and 2.3 with a 3/1 rotation is a gain of ~1.5%.
Yes, I said gain.
With limited extra mana, 2.3 & 3/0 comes out as a 16% buff.
I'll upload ShamSpell v1.1 (I'm going to start version numbering the feature changes now) before I go home from work.
My calculations were off because I didn't factor in the CC mana reduction when calculating number of casts possible.
*fixes and gets different data*
Also, I've ninja'd Ames to get some high end stats off, and doing some work on the mana he regens per minute (bow, spriest, jow, mana pots, etc) gives him 5K mana per minute.
Unfortunately, the break even point for his gear seems to be around 3k mana per minute.
Btw, i'm forced to using a 4/1 rotation because i have quite a lot of spell haste and CL isn't ready by the time i've casted 3 LB-s. Also, with a shadowpriest, i have no problems keeping that rotation up for ~7-8 minutes when using SMP/destro/SMP. I nearly always keep tranq up because i need it and my SP needs it if he goes allout dps with MB and SWD. Mages have invis and locks have soul shatter so they dont really need it. I have no experience at all with moonkins tho.
My calculations were off because I didn't factor in the CC mana reduction when calculating number of casts possible.
*fixes and gets different data*
Also, I've ninja'd Ames to get some high end stats off, and doing some work on the mana he regens per minute (bow, spriest, jow, mana pots, etc) gives him 5K mana per minute.
Unfortunately, the break even point for his gear seems to be around 3k mana per minute.
I'll flick the new version up soon.
/ninjas self back
iv got a thread running on the WoW US shaman forums trying to get the coefficient nerf taken off, help out and keep it topped :P
When we're getting incomplete patch notes, they really aren't. It is stupid to get upset over a change that isn't on PTR yet with potentially incomplete information about what that change is. We can run some preliminary numbers and wring our collective hands, but going for your torches and pitchforks before it's actually had a chance to be tested is what we come here to avoid.
QFT. I posted something similar to this on the official forums. It's almost to the point that people are about to start terrorist acts on Blizzard because of these change and no one yet knows how all these changes are going to pan out in the end. We can do all the number crunching we want, but in the end it doesn't until we actually get in the game and test it all first hand. Everyone is saying, "ZOMG I DON'T NEED MANA EFFICIENCY, GO TO HELL!!!", but can you ever go wrong with having more mana? That just opens the doors to different rotations to maximize our dps.
I really like the LC idea and how it will proc more with the LO changes, but I have yet to get a LC lol. Gonna have to suck it up and go back into Kara when my guildies go on offdays (ugggh Kara!).
Quick question for you guys. During last nights SSC raid we had 1 Shadow Priest in the raid and I was not put in the same group as them. My group consisted of a 2 mages, hunter, pally, and myself. The SP's group was, 1 mage, 2 druids, a pally, and the SP. Is there something wrong here? Would I look stupid telling the RL, "uhmm, why isn't the the SP grouped with all the mages and myself?" I mean, a hunter in a caster group, am I the only one that sees something wrong with these group make ups?
QFT. I posted something similar to this on the official forums. It's almost to the point that people are about to start terrorist acts on Blizzard because of these change and no one yet knows how all these changes are going to pan out in the end. We can do all the number crunching we want, but in the end it doesn't until we actually get in the game and test it all first hand.
I really don't get you "let's just be patient" guys. Blizzard announces changes, gear heads take changes, critically evaluate them in a large forum, and do their best to arrive at the net impact of those changes. If it's a nerf, they cry nerf. If it's a buff, they slap some backs and dream of what will be. And when it's a nerf, a pack of jackasses swings through and tells everyone to chill out (as if anyone listens) and just be patient to see what actually makes it into the game.
Seriously, save your breath. None of the folks who are upset about the change are going to take your advice. Gear heads make their calculations based on the info they have, and that's how we always will be. We aren't going to turn our heads off and wait just because you don't like all the shouting. And telling people that the changes aren't on the PTR yet and can't be actually tested in the game is like telling us the sky is blue....thanks.
I can put out 1200dps when I'm not constantly moving or kiting, and the only fight where threat is an issue so far is gurtogg, but that's more fight specific than anything else. Is the 2nd half of BT noticeably more threat sensitive?
On CL being included in the rotation, that's all fine and dandy, but CL is unusable when there is more than 1 mob around for "oops aggro" or "oops broke CC" reasons. CL isn't exactly care-free.
On CL being included in the rotation, that's all fine and dandy, but CL is unusable when there is more than 1 mob around for "oops aggro" or "oops broke CC" reasons. CL isn't exactly care-free.
Oh not that many. But it certainly won't be a viable option for trash, or the few bosses that have add spawns. I'm just pointing out that CL isn't without unwanted side effects.
Oh not that many. But it certainly won't be a viable option for trash, or the few bosses that have add spawns. I'm just pointing out that CL isn't without unwanted side effects.
Trash for sure, but i cant figure on what boss fight in tbc you can use it honestly.
Not related question: if you have crit and LO procs same time, does Lighting capacitor procs twice?
"ZOMG I DON'T NEED MANA EFFICIENCY, GO TO HELL!!!", but can you ever go wrong with having more mana? That just opens the doors to different rotations to maximize our dps.
Certainly having more mana doesnt hurt, but whats the point if theres nothing to spend it on? Different rotations? Some of us already push 3-1 rotation with mana not being an issue, any extra mana beyond this does nothing for us. Theres no new magical rotations that is gonna be unlocked through having excessive mana.
I'm surprised there hasn't been any mention of the change to mental quickness, and the possible use of it as a dps boost (though there could be threat problems while raiding).
Mental Quickness adds 10/20/30% to spell damage and healing bonuses based on your total Attack Power in addition to it's current effects.
You need 28 Talent points in enhancement to get Mental Quickness 3/3, meaning you still have 33 points to use in the Elemental Tree. - which mostly means missing out on Lightning Overload and the Totem of Wrath.
With my Shaman (Resto, so he doesn't have any +Str or +AP items), I have ~330 AP unbuffed. Add to that Strength of Earth - 200 AP, Blessing of Might - 280 AP, Battleshout - 380 AP and you are at around 1.190, AP (If I did this right). This would mean an additional 360 or so Spelldmg.
How would this compare to missing out on LO and the Totem?
Not related question: if you have crit and LO procs same time, does Lighting capacitor procs twice?
huh? maybe rephrase that somehow? I'm not understanding what you're saying lol.
Originally Posted by Noobshock
On CL being included in the rotation, that's all fine and dandy, but CL is unusable when there is more than 1 mob around for "oops aggro" or "oops broke CC" reasons. CL isn't exactly care-free.
You have to know when you can use CL and when you can't. Obviously if there is a sheep strolling around inbetween mobs you don't want to use it.
I'm surprised there hasn't been any mention of the change to mental quickness, and the possible use of it as a dps boost (though there could be threat problems while raiding).
You need 28 Talent points in enhancement to get Mental Quickness 3/3, meaning you still have 33 points to use in the Elemental Tree. - which mostly means missing out on Lightning Overload and the Totem of Wrath.
With my Shaman (Resto, so he doesn't have any +Str or +AP items), I have ~330 AP unbuffed. Add to that Strength of Earth - 200 AP, Blessing of Might - 280 AP, Battleshout - 380 AP and you are at around 1.190, AP (If I did this right). This would mean an additional 360 or so Spelldmg.
How would this compare to missing out on LO and the Totem?
Would have to say spending that many points in Enhance is not feasible for Elemental Shammies. And usually if you want to make a hybrid build of Enhance/Elemental you would focus on the Enhance as your main tree.
09/27/07, 5:29 PM
Similar Threads
