Well, given that in 2.3 fireball spam is more DPS than 2.2 AM spam, I doubt that number would be above 'no cooldown'. (note, however, that the numbers come close when you consider more realistic latency values (50-100ms))

The tricky part will be estimating intangibles. Things such as pushbacks and AM spam able to start dps earlier. And scorch stacking time vs target switches.

From personal testing, fireball DPS on the PTR is pretty impressive not only from the coefficient change but from a 'stopcasting workaround' perspective as well. The main concern that arises from this though is threat management. Where AM spam is currently enjoying the luxury of arcane's ezmode aggro, fireball is going to push the threat cap regularly.

Whereas casters will recieve a large buff from the lack of a need for /stopcasting macros, melee & tanks aren't going to recieve any increase in DPS/threat generation since their DPS/threat is either passive autoattack which isn't affected by lag, or limited by rage/energy generation. Unless the changes to tanks significantly improve their threat generation (re: devastate mechanics) I have a bad feeling that fireball spam's DPS increase is just going to be stifled by the threat cap.

It seems like if this is the case then there is really going to be a need for an AB rotation to keep threat down without sacrificing DPS entirely.

Even with those changes, I don't think Fire will have a threat problem. On live, we have a well-geared Fire mage in my guild, and even if you took away the coefficient nerf, would not be even close to approaching our tank in threat. Perhaps your tank isn't generating as much threat as he can?

Hmm, according to Zerix (dual warglaive rogue) tank threat got HUGELY buffed in 2.3. To a point where he didn't have any aggro issues. If this guy tells me he doesn't have aggro issues anymore, its pretty damn clear in my mind I won't have a chance in hell to have those issues myself.

Sounds good to me. I was getting mixed reports from warriors about 2.3 changes, some saying nothing changed except maybe a 50-60TPS increase, others say the TPS buff was huge. All varies from tank to tank probably, as always.

Ignoring for a second the threat buff coming up in 2.3 that Manly just pointed out, this is AWFUL logic. As Manly has brought up before, this kind of anecdotal justification is like comparing apples to oranges. Maybe your tank is at the top of his game, and your mage is comparatively lazy. Manly harps often on how the 40% threat reduction is hardly relevent cause even as fire he hardly pushes the threat cap.

In fact, both these statements are silly for the same reason. Saying that threat is or is not a problem with XXX spec completely relative. How close or how far away from the threat cap is strongly correlated to the the 'ability function'* of tank to produce threat minus the threat generation function of the DPSer.

As a matter of fact, I was easily able to pull aggro off of some bosses when I was 10/48/3, which was a major contributor to my decision to actively seek 2/5 t5 and go arcane. But a fact like this should have 0 effect on how anyone else makes their spec decisions because my result is personal to me (because it is based off of my abilities and the abilities of my tank.)

* When I say the ability function, what I mean is the rate at which a tank outputs threat based on 1) skill, 2) gear, and 3) spec.

My post was in response to both your and Qbert's posts. He suggested that mages might need to turn back to AB rotations because they would have problems with threat if they went back to deep fire. Your response was, fire shouldnt have a threat problem, the mages in my guild never do.

My point is that when you go to inspect threat problems that a spec may or may not have, the result is entirely based on the abilities or you and your tank, nothing else.

The percentage chance to break the threat cap and thus pull aggro goes down the better your tank is and goes up the worse you are.

The intent of my post was just to make this notion clear to everyone, as while I waded through the eighty plus pages of this thread before I spec'd arcane for the first time, I noticed that a lot of time and space was wasted on chaff posts between people on either side of experiences like this one.

Post Script: This concept is very much relevant to all the "I can do as much DPS as frost as my deep-fire guildmates do" argument. That experience is likely due to the fact that they are bad (or not trying, or less geared, etc) and/or you are good (or trying hard, or better geared, etc).

Post Post Script: Please don't take offense to any of my posts, I'm not trying to insult you. You just reminded me of some logical fallacies that people sometimes don't realize they are buying into.

Invisibility still works as a way to drop threat, right? I haven't used it for that in ages, but if threat management becomes an issue it's not a big deal.

The main issue with threat and fire is any time there's an aggro wipe, the fire mage has to prepare for that by making sure not to have a fireball in the air just before the aggro wipe happens. The Ignite DoT can sometimes pull aggro- it's something that is easily overcome with Misdirection and paying attentio to the fight, but it does slightly hurt fire's DPS(compared to arcane's DPS), in that situation.

(nevermind, I didn't look far enough back, whelp, looks like to fire I go)
Has anyone thought about Arcane and all the new haste gear available before BT/MH? I think it is something like 265 haste rating that is possible, giving like a 4second arcane missile wave channel time. How viable would this be with respect to fire and the tax removal and /stopcasting effects on it?

deleted reply!

With 2.3 changes haste is a wasted stat for arcane specs. You lose way too much to increase AM to be above AB rotations. If you could somehow get enough haste for free, then yes, but not when you have to take it from damage and crit. All we can hope for is some nice replacement for T5 in WotLK talents.

The increased survivabiliy of Frost has not proven an advantage to most of us while learning BT fights (we are working on Mother Shahraz now). The first three fights are basically free kills, no huge dps races there. Gorefiend, as long as your dispellers and AoE healers are on the ball, shouldn't need the extra survivability. Plus, with no pushback (except when Ice Barrier is up) resistance, the shadowbolts will hinder much of your damage, while at the same time killing your elemental, which is a significant part of dps.

For Bloodboil, the hardest part of the fight (for us at least) is keeping the Fel Rage tank alive. Being Frost won't help you here, as he'll chew through Ice Barrier easily in one swing, and Ice Block is a no-no. The bloodboil is easy to heal through, and since you'll be getting chain-healed or CoH'd most likely, don't need to worry about saving healer's mana, as the other 4 people in your group will be taking damage anyway.

Reliquary of Souls is a major dps fight, during phase 2, pushback will destroy your dps, as well as killing off your elemental. Phase 3 ditto, your elemental will die long before it can put out its full duration of dps. As we all know, Frost dps is most competitive with its elemental out for the full duration. Unfortunately, BT has so much AoE damage being thrown around that the elemental often dies very quickly, leaving the once-competitive Frost back into its "so-so" range.

Yeah the only fight in BT/Hyjal I speced frost for while learning was Illidan. Which it ended up working out very well while learning for P2 (the way we did it at least) and for ice blocking out of unintentional agonizing flames while running to do parasites in p3/5.

Slightly offtopic- - but what are the odds of the lvl 80 talents being released before Christmas like last year?

Seemed like a good marketing ploy last year. Now with WOTLK obviously not coming out before Christmas, these extra talents would be a great way to keep the masses occupied for that period (read: not likely to start playing other competing games)

They may release the talents by Christmas...next year.

While this is true, there's a problem when you assume that if you have threat problems, you should change spec, even when other mages who do more dps say they have no issues.

If Manly(who does better dps than I tend to, that's for sure) can say that he has no threat issues as Fire, then if I did have such issues my first stop would be trying to figure out what my tank was doing wrong, NOT switching spec, unless there was for some reason a huge gear difference between EJ tanks and mine.

Basically I'm saying if your tank sucks, then you need to fix your tank, not your spec. And so comparisons with other people's threat can be useful in figuring out who is the problem - you, or your tank.

Ice block is amazing for learning Gurtogg as you can take an additional bloodboil and block it off if people die in one of the rotating groups.

If you position yourself as close to RoS as possible without aggroing in P2 you can eliminate most of the pushback you get as frost. You can also use AB ofc which has no travel time and therefore no pushback.

I have still yet to see any major damage that would kill my elemental prematurely and I do have experience of 6 of the bosses in BT so far.

I just wanted to clarify things here. AM spam spec with nerfed MSD will still push 'acceptable' numbers. You won't go from 1800 dps to 1000 dps. However, having had a number of fights where I barely had any focus procs on live (read: 3 procs in 4 min...), you can see a definitive difference. If I were to throw an illustrative number I would say a 200 dps loss. You will still compete on DMs, but you sure as hell won't have the lead you would have with an unnerfed MSD. Yes, 21% haste can really push the numbers around. It can probably give 1500 and maybe 1600 dps assuming nerfed MSD. For some of you that might sound like a really good number. To me, that means losing to every single rogue, hunter and warlock. This is not acceptable.

If firespec come 2.3 really pushes the numbers we expect it to push, then I am pretty sure AM spec is hardly salvageable. Sure, if you get a ret pally I could see and understand mages staying AM spam. The DPS won't be terrible. But I doubt you would top meters on a non-supremus fight. I'm pretty sure fire mages would give you a harsh lesson.

EDIT: As irony would have it, apparently I managed my highest DPS on supremus today, with the least amount of focus proc I ever had. By memory 2 of the focus procs were wasted on fireballs, so the number of 'real' focus procs is really 4. In fact I only popped 1 AP because I waited half the fight for a focus proc before I would pop AP. So here's an example of what nerfed MSD DPS would look like.
Wow Web Stats
re-edit: mad props to kadrok for putting up JOW on supremus without me asking

You can also prevent getting Fel Rage by Iceblocking right before he picks a target for it.


It's basically only Mother Sharaz where the WE dies rather quickly. Due to it being healed by spriests VE, limited (albeit constant) dmg won't kill it that easily. It will also die in the late RoS p3, when the ticks are getting high, but it should be there during most of the phase when being summoned early, and i can't remember seeing the WE die prematurely during p2 tbh.

Hey Manly, for people who aren't in BT/Hyjal yet, would you recommend 2pcT5 ABx3 AM Scorch rotation or straight fireball spam with all the new haste gears come 2.3?

How would you value 1 point of +dmg, hit, crit and haste for a 10/48/3 build in 2.3?

thanks.

What? What does pushback have to do with travel time?

In RoS phase 2, you only take dmg on doing dmg. Since fireball and frostbolt have a travel time, there will be a delay when you receive the incoming dmg which can cause pushback on the next spell you are casting. If there is no travel time, then the incoming dmg will occur on completion of your spell cast and not pushback your next spell cast.