Arcane Power; How do i love thee? Let me count the ways:

Currently, Vontre's spreadsheet puts 40/18/3 at about 95.5% of 10/48/3's DPS (1083 vs. 1134 for my paper mage's gear). However, i don't think he models the effect of AP, PoM or Combustion (please correct me if i'm wrong). Let's try to model those and see where that leaves our paper mage.

Combustion
I couldn't come up with a good formula for calculating Combusion's effects, so i just did a probability tree. Assuming 30% crit & combustion being additive with normal crit, on average the 3rd change will be consumed by the 5th cast. Over that time, it will have added 150% crit to the five casts (the same as your normal crit). so basically it adds 1.5 free crits (or fireballs) every 3 minutes. with 56ish fireballs per 3 min => 2.7% dps increase

PoM Pyro
Pyro does 2/3 more damage than fireball (1461-899 base, 10% better coeff) and with pom does it in half the time. 1/2 + 2/3 = 1.16 free fireballs every 3 min. 1.16 / 56 => 2.1% dps increase.

So far, Arcane mage is still only 95% of Fireball mage....

Arcane Power
AP is pretty easy. It's a flat 30% increase 15/180 sec => 2.5% dps increase


40/18/3's 95% + 2.5% => 97.5% of 10/48/3; Arcane is getting closer! What's more...AP & PoM have excellent synergy with each other AND have much better synergy with bloodlust (30% * 30% * 15/180 => 1% dps increase) & useable trinkets than Combustion.


(probability tree and other stuff can be found on info tab of
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?k...B1LkyAzOz7AiWA)

Note to Vontre: This all assumes you haven't incorporated AP, PoM & Combustion. Please let me know if i am wrong on that point.

too fast for me already edited

Now go ahead and do the math for Molten Fury which is also difficult to model in a DPS-spreadsheet.

It's already modeled in Vontre's spreadsheet, i believe. Just modeled as flat 4%.

Nope. This is with all tailoring, arena1 & kara loot.

I think with AP+PoM used once with bloodlust and once with AB spam (if you have the mana to maintain it) will pull dead even with 40/18/3.

Then you're just left with range vs. threat issues (e.g. range is nice for prince, but -threat is even nicer, range is king on gruul?, etc.)

This is correct. I do not model combustion, AP or pom->pyro. What's not considered in this analysis is the increased mana consumption from arcane power. Since the AB cycling model assume 100% mana consumption, you would lose a small bit of dps here.

Considering this and the difficulty of modeling combustion I decided to write them off as insubstantial modifiers to dps. I am fairly certain, just from imaging numbers in my head, that arcane power and pom->pyro combined make the stronger of the comparatively miniscule effects.

My calculations on Molten Fury are 4% overall dps increase, which is amazingly simple to model. This does not account for synergy with trinkets/bloodlust/combustion, then again neither does AP/PoM->Pyro or somesuch. This what I mean when I say I believe flexibility is an advantage, perhaps too difficult and varied to be worth modeling but significant to some small degree. Certainly small things like instructing your shaman to wait until the water elemental is out to use bloodlust matter. Or cold snapping a water elemental. I don't model any of these things (though I should probably consider the latter as it's rather more significant than any of the aforementioned... hmmm).

On this note, I'm preparing a new spreadsheet version that has options for trinket procs. Nexus-Horn beware, now we can all see how broken you are. Damn.

Mostly i was trying to get to the point that we can say, in general, Arcane is approximately equal to Fire in paper DPS.

If AP, PoM & Combustion are insubstantial modifiers to dps (and I agree they may be), then the difference between Arcane and Fire dps is also insubstantial (being on the same scale)....even w/o tier5 (on paper ).

Arcane and fire are indeed rather close on my spreadsheet too, but they're still far enough to not justify speccing arcane without some kind of heavy AB usage, and even then, see TBC Mage Theorycrafting
With all the stuff taken into account for the 33/28 or 40/20 specs the AP on AB spam might really bring the arcane up there. But it's still going to be close, and you're losing even more mana efficiency, which is an area where 10/48/3 clearly and greatly beats arcane (including 33/28 fireball spam). Add to that the fact you lose your range and most fights don't have something that gives AP a significant boost in its power over combustion, and there's no real reason to spec into arcane.
Granted, the difference is very small though. Maybe once you break 45-50% crit the spell power talent will be enough to make 33/28 better ;p (I model crits as a (1+crit*1.1) multiplier for ignites, (1+crit*0.75) for arcane spells and (1+crit*1.45) for ignite+spell power).

The point i was trying to get to is general acceptance that Arcane and Fire are close enough that people should decide on other factors. By your own calculations, 40/18/3 with 3xAB & 2xFireball -> (1516+1250)/2 = 1383 > 10/48/3 1333 DPS (with 2/5 tier5). Factoring in stuff like AP+ABspam+trinket+proc+bloodlust and such, even non tier5 arcane is approximately equal to fire.

The paper DPS (and now even parsed WWS DPS) are close enough that spec decisions really should be and are made on other factors:

Arcane
Flexibility - more knobs to turn when tuning for various encounter mechanics, lack of spriest, etc.
Less Threatening - having a 30% higher threat ceiling is nice.
Depth - some people like the focus arcane requires. mages choose arcane over fire for the same reason rogues choose mutilate over combat: fun

Fire
Range - Time not moving is time you're dps'ing. Distance also == safety in some encounters.
Simplicity - Stand and spam; less moving, fewer buttons to press, less mana management, fewer debuffs to watch. Not doing all that leaves time/focus/energy to lead raids, to watch your environment, to monitor the performance of others, or even to eat a sandwich.

AP was already factored as 2.5% DPS increase. Granted you can somehow get more, but how much more really? While combustion was really ignored altogether. All in all those factors not taken into account don't clearly favor one spec over the other.

I agree that arcane has the clear advantage of lower threat, and can use more mana if you have more mana with a shadow priest and a short fight.
However when you don't have a shadow priest, you can only LOSE DPS vs the fire spec - fire spec does more DPS and more DPM if you choose any arcane spec rotation that gives more efficiency than ABX3-scorch-fireballX2. Therefore if mana is an issue, fire spec will always come on top.
Range=survivability and flexibility. Granted it's possible to argue for days how much, but with 2 specs being equal DPS, I'll take the one with the range and efficiency over the spec with lower threat unless my tanks really really suck. And I really don't see myself or anyone getting 2/5 T5 with crappy tanks.
Last thing is since I don't think that proper AP use can REALLY turn the tide in the favor of the arcane spec (since combustion was completely ignored on the fire spec and can also boost trinkets more or less the same), so without 2/5 T5 arcane is completley pointless as it WILL do less DPS unless you're AB spamming.

So:
Arcane
flexibility - it's actually less flexible as you're stuck with a very fixed rotation. If your rotation gets fucked over during your fireballs (while still letting you get a scorch off) - fine. But if it gets fucked right before you're supposed to cast an AB, you just lost the whole purpose of your spec and it wasn't worth speccing into it.
Depth - Well if you like a harder to play spec, try 0/0/0. Takes lots of skill to top meters with that!

I agree with arcane having the threat advantage and fire having range and simplicity advantages ;p