Ah yes, Glancing Blows, 6.25 Adjusted Attacktable factor (100-28+20-5-6.25+40)/100 = 1.202

This explains the missing 0.06.

0.71*1.5*1.202*1.254*1.1*(2500*1.1/14+100) = 523 DPS

Still missing 30 dps somewhere.

There are two important questions that I'd like to ask:

1) Yo, the way your simulator is currently set up, I am getting a measly 47 DPS from Flameshock/Earthshock with CoE, Scorch, and Misery selected, and the 30% AP -> spell damage deselected (if I select it, I'm only getting 87 DPS). This seems very low to me, and so I was wondering if the default values for boss resistances are incorrect at 365. Am I simply overestimating how much DPS shocks should contribute? I'm using 5.4% spell crit and 3% spell hit. Normally, since there is nothing you can really do to change how much DPS the proper shock rotation does, I'm not too worried. I am, however, using a second pawn string to show me the AEP values of items after the 2.3 change, so that I can make good long-term decisions now. The accuracy of shock damage values essentially affects the relative weight of AP and Strength, and determines by how much the value of the other stats decreases.

2) There has been some discussion of the benefits of waiting until you're outside the 3 second internal WF cooldown to Storm Strike. I have yet to find any good math that would help me determine just how long it might be worth waiting. I also have the Ashtongue Talisman, which would seem to complicate this some. Disquette, I'm loving DisqoDice for this, but would just love to know how to use this information to its fullest. I was thinking that Yo's simulator could probably help us arrive at some good math if it were changed to allow the simulator to optimize a "maximum time to wait for SS" kind of output.

Krish, I know what you mean. Pretty much If I have 1/2 a red bar or less, I'm waiting for it. Half a red bar or more, I SS anyway. It's largely dependent on global cooldowns also, though.

If I have 2/3 of a red bar when WF is expiring, I'm redropping the totem, and the global CD takes me most of the way through the red bar anyway.

I know the OP asked not to discuss builds, I've gone through the entire OP and searched various threads and could not find a Shaman builds discussion. While I would be interested in finding different builds (such as 0/42/19, 0/44/17, etc.) contrasted, I have some specific questions about enhancement builds not answered in the OP.

This note from drats implies that even the last point is needed in mental quickness in order to totem twist and rotate shocks. But the typical builds I have seen for enhancement (e.g. 0/42/19: WorldofWarcraft.com -> Info -> Classes -> Shaman -> Talent Calculator) do not assign any points at all to mental quickness.

What would be considered a basic, no-frills build for totem-twisting enhancement shamans?

Depending on your mana constraints, the main thing you're going to want is 5 points in Totemic Focus, which drops the mana cost of the totems much more than MQ does. With the 2.3 notes out in the wild, there will probably be a fair amount of discussion about what what the new 'staple' build is.

I've been 45/16 for as long as I can remember, totemic focus is a definite must and mental quickness is an added boost. I'd call that the basic build right now for, as much as I hate the phrase, totem twisting.

I think Healing Focus is pretty much a waste of 5 talent points for an enhancement shaman.

For a raid it's definitely a waste, but for world or unorganized BG PvP and solo grinding it can be extremely useful.

This is probably the purest enhancement PvE build post-2.3.

The only time I have even remotely wished I had Healing Focus was on rare occasions on Archimonde where I've somehow gotten doomfire + airburst, there was no healer in range of me, and I wanted to keep myself topped off after my absorb pot wore off before running back in closer to Archimonde. Even then, though, I've never died to not having Healing Focus, and I certainly wouldn't waste 5 points on it.

From 2.3 PTR notes (taken them from WoR as forums ones are cut off)

First Weapon Skill change?

- Expertise: We have added a new stat and associated rating called expertise and expertise rating. Expertise rating converts to expertise at the same rate that weapon skill rating formerly converted at. Each point of expertise reduces the chance for your attacks to be dodged or parried by 0.25%.

Weapon Skill: All items and abilities that granted weapon skill have been changed. In most cases, they were converted to expertise or expertise rating. Ranged attacks do not benefit from expertise, so ranged weapon skill has generally been replaced by critical strike bonuses or hit bonuses. In a few cases, talents have been changed to other effects to avoid granting players excessive amounts of expertise.

And then shamans --

Shaman
- Chain Lightning cast time reduced to 2.0 (from 2.5), mana costs reduced, benefit from spell damage reduced appropriately.
- Cure Poison and Cure Disease range increased to 40 yards.
- Elemental Focus (Elemental) now reduces the mana cost of the next 2 damage spells by 40%.
- Frost Shock is no longer subject to diminishing returns.
- Grounding Totem: This totem is now destroyed upon redirecting any spell to itself.
- Lightning Bolt cast time reduced to 2.5 (from 3.0 where applicable), mana costs reduced, benefit from spell damage reduced appropriately.
- Lightning Mastery (Elemental) cast time reduction reduced to .1/.2/.3/.4/.5 seconds.
- Lightning Overload (Elemental) now has a 4/8/12/16/20% chance to occur and the additional spell causes half damage and no additional threat.
- Mana Spring Totem effect increased.
- Mental Quickness (Enhancement) now also increases spell damage and healing equal to 10/20/30% of your attack power.
- Two-Handed Axes and Two-Handed Maces are now trainable by all Shaman at the appropriate weapon masters. The Enhancement talent has been replaced by Shamanistic Focus.
- Shamanistic Focus (New Enhancement Talent): After landing a melee critical strike, you enter a Focused state. The Focused state reduces the mana cost of your next Shock spell by 60%.
- Shamanistic Rage (Enhancement) now also reduces all damage taken by 30% for the duration.
- Spirit Weapons (Enhancement) threat reduction increased to 30% from 15%.
- Rockbiter Weapon: For ranks 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 the increased damage resulting from this enchantment has been reduced slightly to match the intended numbers given in the tooltip. Ranks 1, 2, 3, and 9 are unchanged.
- Water Shield: This spell no longer costs any mana to cast and its duration has been shortened. At the end of its duration, it now grants mana for any remaining globes. In addition, the mana granted per globe has been substantially increased.
- Windfury Weapon: This enchantment can no longer be triggered while you are disarmed.

You have 1 free talent point!

So.. depending on skill->expertise conversions this could be a buff!

My bet:
~1.25% less dodge and parry.

So you should only notice the difference while attacking from front (parry) and if you hit any +hit cap (be it 9% for yellow or 28% for dual wield)

But I guess we'll need to reevaluate the whole +Hitcap story again, since without weapon skill anymore we cannot really explain the 24%-28% values anymore. But i guess it is just replaced with higher dodge. Atleast we can assume now that any boss has 5.94% dodge and 5.94% parry (if applicable). Maybe they changed the whole miss thing anyway and this is actually a buff and not just some name change.

Unless we get something like 2 expertise rating per 1 skill rating, it sounds like a PvE nerf for Enhancement Shamans. Our only option was 100 Deaths and with a 1:1 conversion, we're now getting 1.5% fewer dodges instead of 3% more hits. (Parry reduction is only marginally useful on boss fights.)

I would bet that +5 to Axe weapon skill will be changed to something like +2% hit and +2% crit when wielding an axe, but I'm not really sure. It sounds like weapon-specific expertise is no longer something that Blizzard is interested in, but if they are, then maybe you'll get 5 expertise out of it (unknown # of rating).

Yeh if they changed the 100 death belt to something different (like +crit/hit) we can easily assume that weapon expertise rating is primarily for tanks.

So far it sounds like the second big Orc-nerf to me and I'm upset about it. Two years ago I decided to create an Orc because of his racials, not because of his look or something...

From the 2.3 Patch notes:
The AEP of the [Ashtongue Talisman of Vision] will likely need to be recalculated.

Anticipation is by far the worst PVE talent out of all of those that you listed. I don't see why anyone would drop points anywhere to max anticipation. I also have 0 desire to click through a dozen different allocations of the third tier of enhancement talents, I'll swap out a point in anticipation for shamanistic focus when it's released and it'll still be the best raid DPS spec.

Ugh. Unless the AP got buffed, if it's really down to 50% per SS, DST, Madness, and TT all beat it -- even before considering that SS can be dodged or parried. Oh well, we knew this was coming.

Bah, I knew the change to the Ashtongue trinket was coming, but seriously it was quite nice having it, so I'm rather annoyed about it, especially considering due to my reroll from Resto to Enhancement came recently; so I never really got a chance at getting a DST or a Tsunami Talisman, so I'm left out a bit in the cold if the nerf is harsh enough =/.

Oh well, just have to play the DST lottery every week I guess!

Well, we can hope that the chance to proc on SS debuff application was removed but the chances to proc on each weapon hit still exist so we get a 75% proc chance if the SS isn't dodged or parried. That would yield something like 275*.75*.944 ~= 195 AEP when attacking from behind.

I was trying to illustrate a point to the person I was replying to. He had no points in Totemic Focus, was missing the last point in Mental Quickness, and wasn't able to maintain a totem twisting rotation because of this.

Depending on your gear, it's possible to skip that last point and put it somewhere else. I just can't imagine a better return for 1 talent point once you've filled out the rest of the tree.

Rava said it already, but just to eliminate any confusion (and so people can refer back to it) I'll say it again. When speaking of maximizing group and personal DPS, you need all of those talents except anticipation. Two points in anticipation is the lesser evil when picking useless talents at the earlier tiers of enhancement, due to the fact it can save you in a jam.

Thanks for responding to my post, but I have a slight beef here. Mr. "Math Crazed Spider Monkey" OP talks a lot about numbers and precise values, but he doesn't have anything that lists the range for hit rating, and "what you can manage" doesn't tell me anything.

I know the argument is that slightly more misses are acceptable if the hits themselves do enough damage to compensate for the misses, but there's no data on what AP should be to compensate for those misses, or what range hit should be to at least be effective in a raid situation.

I wish I could go and test this solo, but we all know I can't. So the only option is going into a raid untested and watch the performance while my miss rate could severely hurt the overal DPS of our melee group.

Again, I appreciate your reply, but this is supposedly the "bible" on enhancement mechanics -- according to people on the official forums and here -- and I can't get a straight answer from either place.