Sorry, I didn't mean to start discussion about 1% differences in UR uptime, but to point out that since we are concerned with various kinds of modelling, we want to be as accurate as possible. Some might feel it's unnecessary nit-picking, but when wording statements, it's better to say e.g. "nearly 100% UR uptime" than "100% UR uptime", as mathematically a pure 100% UR uptime is only possible with 100% crit rate.
I mean if you are constantly picking on that point I think I should have to add that you are still wrong, no matter what.
If you want it academically correct you definitely have to factor in the length of the Fight you are talking about. Once we have that we can calculate how likely it ist that during that time you will have a Streak of Dodge/Misses/Noncrits which must be longer then 10 seconds. This is simply done by multiplying the chance for a noncrit hit * the number of hits you do in 10 seconds. For sake of argument just take 0.7*0.7*0.7 ...
If you have the length of the fight you can then calculate how improbable it is you get anything else then 100% UR uptime...
It wouldn't surprise me if WoW's PRNG is coded to eliminate really "unlucky" streaks and/or really "lucky" streaks, so I think all this discussion would be purely academic in nature.
It wouldn't surprise me if WoW's PRNG is coded to eliminate really "unlucky" streaks and/or really "lucky" streaks, so I think all this discussion would be purely academic in nature.
Making it not a random number generator.
Also to make such a system you would have to store all the previous values you got out of the random number generator and look for patterns in them and try to even those out. Which all would take far too much effort when you can just have your random number generator be normal and streaky.
Last edited by Darkmantle : 12/19/07 at 12:22 AM.
Reason: Awkward phrasing
+ Added Expertise support. It's weight is calclulated based on increasing expertise rating by 39 (= 10 Expertise = -2.5% dodge)
+ Changed export string to Enhancer addon as it now supports 3 digits and expertise rating
+ Added DPS value of 1 EP
+ Added Stonebraker's totem option. Proc modelled with 50% on each shock outside 10 sec hidden cooldown
Originally Posted by Karok(EU)
Yo,
Will "use" trinkets be added aswell sometime? Currently they are ignored.
Yes I do understand that replacing on-use procs with averages is not absolutely correct so I do plan to add them, low priority though.
Originally Posted by SentinelBorg
There must be a bug in the UR calculations. Disabling it, only decreases my DPS by a small value. Also it would be nice if the nerfed proc chance of Ashtongue Talisman (50%) could be implemented.
Thanks for reporting the bug - it is high-priority now. Will update talisman too.
Originally Posted by Atren
I keep forgetting to ask one addition to Yo simulator -- could you add 4-set bonus of Arena set (9 sec SS) to it?
It was there long time ago: Procs&Stuff tab -> 4-piecs set bonus -> Earthshaker (PvP)
Originally Posted by Malan
Yo!, are you using the same PPM for Executioner as for Mongoose?I did a lot of short run sims this morning trying to figure out if I wanted Mongoose/Executioner or double Executioner with my new weapon setup (Syphon/Tide) and was showing Executioner/Mongoose as about equal with Mongoose/Mongoose, but Executioner/Executioner was a 10-20 DPS drop.
Yes it uses same PPM. Your result with double Executioner being a drop is expected because Executioner does not stack with itself. So, when two executioner procs "overlap" that part is wasted opposite to when Executioner and Mongoose are up at same time providing synergetic result (crits and flurried strikes on less armor).
It wouldn't surprise me if WoW's PRNG is coded to eliminate really "unlucky" streaks and/or really "lucky" streaks, so I think all this discussion would be purely academic in nature.
I've thought about this too, but wouldn't it be very easy to disprove? For example, parse combat logs for instances where there were 6 or more non-crits in a row with a huge dataset and check the next attack for crit rate to see if it is consistant.
Any computer generated series is only pseudo-random, this would certainly be a PRNG but just not one you'd want to use for cryptography.
Also to make such a system you would have to store all the previous values you got out of the random number generator and look for patterns in them and try to even those out. Which all would take far too much effort when you can just have your random number generator be normal and streaky.
It wouldn't take too much effort to keep a queue of the last N attack results and if none of them were the desired result, make the next attack a crit and make the next attack after that your desired result.
There is one very good reason I believe the PRNGs in WoW might not be 100% random.
Undesirable quest drop streaks. If there are millions of WoW players and hundreds of quests you do from level 1-70 you are going to have a nontrivial number of people who are in that 0.01% of "super unlucky" on quest item drops. If you have a 20% drop rate for some [Bear Ass] then it will take 5 kills on average to get 1 [Bear Ass] but over 1% of the people are going to kill 20 bears before getting your first [Bear Ass]. (1-.2)^20 = .0115 This is not a desirable outcome for Blizzard, because people get confused and think they are in the wrong spot for the quest, or get frustrated and sick of the game.
Given that Blizzard might be adjusting the drop rates on quest items to prevent "unlucky" streaks, it's not a far leap to wonder if they are adjusting the combat resolution mechanics similarly to prevent an "unlucky" run of misses (which would surely be equally frustrating and occur equally often. If you have a 24% chance to miss, then there's a 0.000000634*100% chance you'll miss 10 times in a row. If a level 20 rogue misses 10 times in a row, the mob he's fighting probably just killed him. How many mobs do you fight while leveling up? How many characters do you have? How many players are there? At some point, Blizzard may say there's only a certain level of unluckiness they are willing to tolerate and take the quest drop algorithm over to combat resolution as well.
Originally Posted by Sancho
I've thought about this too, but wouldn't it be very easy to disprove? For example, parse combat logs for instances where there were 6 or more non-crits in a row with a huge dataset and check the next attack for crit rate to see if it is consistant.
Yeah, I've thought a bit about doing that. It would be doable if you had a big enough data set but there are a lot of complicating factors to deal with (higher crit vs. lower level mobs, lower crit vs. higher level mobs, resilience on PvP targets...) so you'd also need a very clean data set, which makes it slightly tougher. Maybe once WoW's combat log 2.0 is out.
Originally Posted by Yo!
+ Added Expertise support. It's weight is calclulated based on increasing expertise rating by 39 (= 10 Expertise = -2.5% dodge)
+ Changed export string to Enhancer addon as it now supports 3 digits and expertise rating
+ Added DPS value of 1 EP
+ Added Stonebraker's totem option. Proc modelled with 50% on each shock outside 10 sec hidden cooldown
Would it be completely unreasonable to assume that AP on yourself would yield similar DPS gains to that of AP on similarly geared melee DPS, and therefore equate it into EP?
I'm talking, of course, about the T4 2-set bonus. If that assumption is at least somewhat accurate, I can't see giving up my bonus anytime soon with my current EP values
Typical group setup:
myself - 26.4 EP
warrior - 26.4 AP
ret pally - 26.4 AP
rogue - 13.2 AP
rogue - 13.2 AP
----------------
total - 105.6 "EP"
Even with the shoulderpads of the stranger (200ish EP) I already have, I can't see replacing my T4 head (225ish) and shoulders (150ish) with anything I have available. With the T5 head (280ish) it's about even. Did any of of you T6 players keep the bonus until MH/BT gear?
I know this has been touched on before, but I'm honestly surprised there isn't more discussion on it. It's really an incredible set bonus.
Also to make such a system you would have to store all the previous values you got out of the random number generator and look for patterns in them and try to even those out. Which all would take far too much effort when you can just have your random number generator be normal and streaky.
Store only number of "quest item not dropping" event and if it is more than unwanted xxx - set chance for next item to 1. This adds only 1 hidden field and 1 additional check for event. (Compare it to efficiency nightmare of implementing Darkmoon Card: Wrath). I think that this system is in place in WoW.
+ Fixed bug that prevented Unleashed Rage from being properly switched off when UR radio button was unchecked
Even with the shoulderpads of the stranger (200ish EP) I already have, I can't see replacing my T4 head (225ish) and shoulders (150ish) with anything I have available. With the T5 head (280ish) it's about even. Did any of of you T6 players keep the bonus until MH/BT gear?
I know this has been touched on before, but I'm honestly surprised there isn't more discussion on it. It's really an incredible set bonus.
Yeah, I didn't replace my 2-piece T4 until I got both the T5 helm and Shoulderpads of the Stranger, FWIW. (This was back before there was expertise on the Shoulderpads, though.)
Yeah, I didn't replace my 2-piece T4 until I got both the T5 helm and Shoulderpads of the Stranger, FWIW. (This was back before there was expertise on the Shoulderpads, though.)
Even taking into account the expertise I still only get about 200 EP for the shoulderpads of the stranger with my EP values ( using only 8 exp rating since I don't have any other expertise rating), which puts those about even with T4 using my T4 2-set "EP value".
Problem for group wide buffs is that AP is not of same value to others as it is for us. In fact we have one of the lowest AP of melee classes imo. So actual value of T4 2-set is very hard to decide, and could use some input from those respective classes: rogues, warriors and retribution paladins.
The reason why other classes values applies to it is that because AP is the base of evaluation for other stats so if for example shamans have highest value for AP then will overvalue the bonus considerably probably.
EDIT:
If you get such buffs and individual boost setups equal then always go for individual boost. This is based on cold reality -- if someone in group dies then group buff value diminishes while individual will not. And well if you die yourself, it wont matter as group buff gone as well.
It wouldn't take too much effort to keep a queue of the last N attack results and if none of them were the desired result, make the next attack a crit and make the next attack after that your desired result.
There is one very good reason I believe the PRNGs in WoW might not be 100% random.
Undesirable quest drop streaks. If there are millions of WoW players and hundreds of quests you do from level 1-70 you are going to have a nontrivial number of people who are in that 0.01% of "super unlucky" on quest item drops. If you have a 20% drop rate for some [Bear Ass] then it will take 5 kills on average to get 1 [Bear Ass] but over 1% of the people are going to kill 20 bears before getting your first [Bear Ass]. (1-.2)^20 = .0115 This is not a desirable outcome for Blizzard, because people get confused and think they are in the wrong spot for the quest, or get frustrated and sick of the game.
AFAIK it's been "proven" that loot generation is at mob creation - i.e. the Blasted Land mobs with the different visible weapons or various boss spawns killed multiple times. Check out the relevant threads in this forum.
Quest drops just aren't visible when you aren't on the quest (see examples of having completed a quest while your party member hasn't yet and him being able to loot your mob corpse).
Originally Posted by Rob
Given that Blizzard might be adjusting the drop rates on quest items to prevent "unlucky" streaks,
Check out thottbot et al for quest drops or "random" drops like BOP enchanting recipes. You'll see people bragging about getting items on the first kill versus people complaining about having killed multiple 100s to 1000s of a creature and not getting the drop.
Look how many write stuff like " I got the first 4 in the first 4 kills, but the fifth/last one took me another 25 kills".
Originally Posted by Rob
it's not a far leap to wonder if they are adjusting the combat resolution mechanics similarly to prevent an "unlucky" run of misses (which would surely be equally frustrating and occur equally often. If you have a 24% chance to miss, then there's a 0.000000634*100% chance you'll miss 10 times in a row. If a level 20 rogue misses 10 times in a row, the mob he's fighting probably just killed him. How many mobs do you fight while leveling up? How many characters do you have? How many players are there? At some point, Blizzard may say there's only a certain level of unluckiness they are willing to tolerate and take the quest drop algorithm over to combat resolution as well.
How many times have you died while leveling up? Without checking why you died?
Let's see: 0.000000634*100% * 9'000'000 players => 63.4% chance that this happened to someONE somewhere (although this math is probably wrong ...). And that someone could have died easily anyway, because he had two mobs on him or something. Or he might have been in a party, got some heals and survived. Another one killed the mob, and his unlucky streak might have been distributed over two mobs (e.g. 5misses on first mob, first mob gets killed by party member. 5 misses on next mob). Or he might have died after the first 5 misses, rezzed, and died again (another 5 misses) and just decided it wasn't his day?
hrm, actually this is pretty much offtopic for this thread.
AFAIK it's been "proven" that loot generation is at mob creation - i.e. the Blasted Land mobs with the different visible weapons or various boss spawns killed multiple times. Check out the relevant threads in this forum.
They have concluded that it's impossible for us to know when loot is generated, and the old bug where thorns/etc. getting the tap on bosses with loot tables that were different for each faction resulting in no loot proves that at some point, some mobs didn't generate loot on spawn. Also, the Blasted Lands mobs are almost certainly just different mobs with the same name that share a spawn.
They have concluded that it's impossible for us to know when loot is generated, and the old bug where thorns/etc. getting the tap on bosses with loot tables that were different for each faction resulting in no loot proves that at some point, some mobs didn't generate loot on spawn.
Hmm, didn't know about that bug. I could easily think that the boss mobs just had two different loot tables associated at their creation and chose which table to use (alliance vs horde) on first damage. (although admittedly this doesn't make much sense from a logical point of view)
Originally Posted by Shalas
Also, the Blasted Lands mobs are almost certainly just different mobs with the same name that share a spawn.
You mean they specifically coded a mob there which could drop [Glowing Brightwood Staff] AND showed it beforehand? Because the first time I heard about these mobs was because someone saw one of them walking around with this huge glowing staff, killed him and got that specific loot.
And they also coded other mob spawns with hardcoded loot table of a grey dagger AND showing it in his hands?
Anyway, until some kind of "proof"* is shown that Blizzard is doctoring with the RNG against extremely lucky/unlucky strings, I won't believe in it.
* And as this is most likely on the order of "proving a negative", I don't think there will be any proof.
Originally Posted by Pitbuller
1 - (1-0.000000634) ^ (9'000'000 * avarage number of player killed mob)
Chance that 10miss streak has happen least once.
yeah, looks much better, but I can't really be bothered to find out what kind of value this gives back But assuming that a player has at least killed 1 mob, this is already above 99.99%. I.e. it's virtually certain it's happened to someone. Poor bastard
With this new feature I'd love for someone to modify Pawn so that it would show the DPS potential of items in the tooltips.
@the above discussion, there are plenty of threads in general that discuss the randomness of loot and they all end up closed by the mods. Lets not get into that here.
I severely doubt Blizz does any monkeying with the RNG -- too many variables to maintain in a system that has to at least have the appearance of being realtime. In fact, I'd guess that all their random numbers are either pre-generated to a list that's read in a loop or done on a separate chip -- true PRNGs are just too processor intensive for a system that must no doubt make millions of random determinations per second.
Of course, systems being what they are the most random thing about ANY MMO RNG will be the order in which the numbers are requested by clients, making the actual distribution of randoms or existence of patterns less meaningful.
For those of you wanting to use Yo!'s sim with a Leopard Mac, Apple just put out a developer preview build of Java 6 for Leopard 10.5.1. If my memory serves me, no Java 6 was the problem with the sim and Macs before. I haven't tested it yet, though.
I apologize if this is a bit off topic. However, I can't seem to throw up a new post on this topic since I seem to have restrictions. Just registered to this site so still a little noobish with how this forum operates =P I have browsed through the forums but more or less haven't found much information to what I have been looking for.
I am a raid specced 2/45/14 Enhancement Shaman and fairly geared. Only reason some of my gear is arena gear is because I have not come across or has dropped anything better for me. My guild and I are currently in SSC for only bout 6 days or so in total and we are already 1 boss away from Vashj. Without downtime (due to fights which benefit more through ranged attacks and AOEs) I am usually in the Top 3-5 highest dps in our raids. Much of my itemization and gear/weapon choices are based on this threads theory craft on maximum dps in raids. As far as gear, itemization, weapon selection, etc. are concerned, I am very satisfied with how detailed this thread has come. Furthermore, it has helped me jump from a middle dps'er (in raids with damage meters) to a high dps'er competing with epiced out rogues for first place.
My interest beyond this now is in terms of PVP as enhancement. I have looked in the PVP topic in the other section but it has not answered much of my questions since it pertains to arena team setup. I do have a good amount of PVP experience as I have dueled all classes numorous times. Therefore, I know my class; his strenghts; weaknesses as well as which class I do or do not have an advantage over. I have a fair amount of PVP (2 Vengeful and 2 Merciless pieces) gear with veteran writs, waists, & Vindicator boots. I also have Dory's Ebrace and more soon to come. My 2h weapon of choice is Stormherald and for DW'ing I use Dragonstrike & Fury. As far as weapon choice used in pvp, from my experience it all breaks down to what class I am fighting. For example, for dueling a arms warrior I would use Stormherald and dueling paladins/elem shams I would DW in increase hits and attempt to increase their cast times.
Lets look from a fair dueling 1v1 rather than arenas (regardless of pvp or pve gear) Classes I am confident in taking down:
1. Mages
2. Other Shamans
3. Paladins
4. Priests
5. Arms / fury Warriors
Classes I currently have problems with (regardless of pvp or pve gear)
1. Rogues (no dought singlely the most OP class against enhance shamans regardless of their gear. A good rogue in mixed blues and greens can still give me a hard time. Providing they keep me stunned)
2. Druids - whether they are feral or moonkin. Feral druids stun off first attack and once you get out he/she switches to bear form. Moonkin = root, kite, HOTs, star/moonfire and my frost shocks are easily removed with them switching in/out of forms.
3. Warlocks - aka. Fear ftw! lol All they need to do is fear, bolt grounding/tremor totems and continue fear and dots. Oh and mind you a felguard is slapping you silly at the same time.
4. Hunters - Frost trap, scatter shot, aimed shot oh and mind you their pet is also nibbling away at you.
Not to say these classes can't be beaten by an enhance shaman; each of these classes have weaknesses as well. Locks/hunters I can take out providing I can get close. Rogues can't survive my burst dmg if they can't keep me stunned. Druids eat Windfury hard if you catch them in normal or cat form. Just majority of the time these classes give me much more difficulty.
Now getting to the point (finally! =P) I am not questioning PVP gear as it is specifically designed by Blizzard for these kind of encounters. There is only so much you can do about stun, fear, etc. I do find however a heavy weakness and I beleive it's really got to do with the types of gems I have socketed. At the moment, all my gear is socketed with +8 strengh and or +4 crit & +4 strength. I realize these are the best gems to socket in PVE but how bout PVP? Past research has told me to stock heavily on resiliance. However, I've beaten a good number of epiced out gladiator/merciless gladiator enhancement shamans and warriors with 400+ resil. Meanwhile I myself only have about 225 resil due to a combination of pve/pvp gear. But I dueled a friend who is a feral druid with tier 4 dps gear in tank form seems to dodge 5 or 6 of 10 melee attacks including Stormstrike/WF. and what normally hits for 800 reg white dmg now hits for 300ish; as well as, dodged or small WF hits. In my PVP gear i currently have 81 hit rating. I swapped out with my PVE gear and upped it to 101 (2handed) to 122 (DW) hit rating and saw a large improvement in the amount of attacks landing. So does that mean I should be stacking on +8 hit rating and +4hit / +4agility gems? Mind you I have already capped the 9% hit rating for DW throught talents (3%) for 2 h. I have the same problem with rogues and hunters but i realize that is due to the high agility and rogue evasion. Furthermore, this brings me to the Mongoose vs. Executioner question as well. I have read on how it works for rogues and fury warriors but very vaguely on enhancement shamans. Should I be enchanting my offhand with executioner and keep mongoose on mainhand? With executioner procing and when i get my S3 leggings, it would total to 1204 ignore armor.
I apologize if this topic has been covered before and I may have missed it. If it has, please direct me to the right place to find it. Your feedback would be greatly appreciated! =) I chose to post on this website because I feel this is the most informative. aka - elitistjerks lol. Please don't reply harshly if you may find these questions kinda noobish, we all go through a learning process sometime =) Thanks in advance!
12/18/07, 8:32 PM
But assuming that a player has at least killed 1 mob, this is already above 99.99%. I.e. it's virtually certain it's happened to someone. Poor bastard 
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