Elitist Jerks Enhance Shaman: The Collected Works of Theorycraft, Vol I

11/07/07, 11:11 AM   #4591
Stopokingme
Don Flamenco

Orc Shaman

Azjol-Nerub (EU)
 Originally Posted by Atren I was thinking more in line of single enchant comparison. Like if no enchant on other weapon which would show it individual worth. As it stands other weapon will definetly be mongoose if dont stack, question is what should first one be? If we had mongoose simulated as enchant on one weapon and then cycle the effect of mongoose/executioner in stats would that show accurate description for dual mongoose vs combo of executioneer and mongoose? Imo this can be done as long as their proc rate is same and they have no inner cooldowns.
Well, this would be as simple as just comparing the values of 120 agi and 2% haste worth of haste rating, with 840(? not sure if this was the actual value of the proc or not) armor penetration.

Using the middle raid values that comes down to (2*120 + 31.6*1.48) versus (840*0.28), so 296,8 for Mongoose versus 135,20 for Executioner, pretty easy to say which is superior now, unless I screwed up majorly on my calculations here.

Gonna be hard to say if or when Executioner finally surpasses Mongoose, run the math with your own AEP values to see if it's actually worth getting for you or not.

 11/07/07, 11:15 AM #4592 Malan Mike Tyson     Malan Tauren Shaman   No WoW Account When you start getting into T6 values and -Armor starts to get better they'll begin to equate. My armor pen value when I ran the sims (before recent upgrades) was 0.3 which would value Execution at 252 AEP, much closer to Mongoose at that point (assuming that the values of Agi/Haste held constant of course). Eyeballing it and generalizing some figures in my head, it would appear that as long as your value of Agility is less than 2 (with kings) any value of -Armor greater than 0.35 or so will probably make Executioner worth as much or more than Mongoose.
 11/07/07, 12:24 PM #4593 Dukanull Von Kaiser     Dukanull Orc Shaman   Nathrezim Simple question on mechanics, does dual wielding axes give a 2.5% parry/dodge reduction, or does it not work like that. Alternatively, if you are using a RT in MH and OH'ing a syphon, will the 1.25% be between both hands or just the axe? Vindication-wow.com
 11/07/07, 1:00 PM #4594 Malan Mike Tyson     Malan Tauren Shaman   No WoW Account If you're only using one axe, it should in theory only reflect the dodge rate for that weapon, so for SS purposes you'd want the axe in your MH to get that little extra edge. Kind of depends on how they implement it though.
11/07/07, 1:09 PM   #4595
Rob
Paid \$25 To Raid

Draenei Shaman

 Originally Posted by Stopokingme Using the middle raid values that comes down to (2*120 + 31.6*1.48) versus (840*0.28), so 296,8 for Mongoose versus 135,20 for Executioner, pretty easy to say which is superior now, unless I screwed up majorly on my calculations here.
840*0.28 = 235.20, not 135.20. So they're closer than you suggest, but Mongoose still looks better on paper.

At T6 gear levels, we might expect:
(120*2 + 31.6*2) versus (840*0.35)
303.2 AEP (Mongoose 100% uptime) vs 294 AEP (Executioner 100% uptime)
Pretty close. At this point I'd think about picking up Executioner on one of my weapons since it's close in raids and superior in PvP.
 Originally Posted by Dukanull Simple question on mechanics, does dual wielding axes give a 2.5% parry/dodge reduction, or does it not work like that. Alternatively, if you are using a RT in MH and OH'ing a syphon, will the 1.25% be between both hands or just the axe?
We can expect that you will get the full parry/dodge reduction, but only for the hand you are wielding an axe in. Rising Tide (or a VG Cleaver) should still be the best MH for Orcs in 2.3 -- reducing the number of dodged WFs and SSs is a huge win.

Edit: It appears that the Human expertise skill is currently bugged and applies a +5 expertise aura, so you can DW Mace/Sword and get +10 expertise (+5 from sword spec and +5 from mace spec). Discussion here. The implication is that Orcs will currently get +5 expertise as long as they are wielding any axe. I'd expect this to get changed once they figure out how to code it properly.

Last edited by Rob : 11/07/07 at 3:38 PM. Reason: new axe spec info

 11/07/07, 1:23 PM #4596 titanrazor Glass Joe   Mesius Night Elf Rogue   Bloodhoof weap combo Curious as to what would be best weap combo between: Dual Syphon's and Rising tide MH/Syphon OH Anyone?
11/07/07, 1:28 PM   #4597
Malan
Mike Tyson

Malan
Tauren Shaman

No WoW Account
 Originally Posted by titanrazor Curious as to what would be best weap combo between: Dual Syphon's and Rising tide MH/Syphon OH Anyone?
I see that this was your first post ever on this forum. We like to encourage people to read a lot, if not all, of the thread they are responding to, before posting questions like this. Since this thread is obscenely long at this point, I'm sure you can imagine why we might not like people popping in and asking things without reading the earlier material first.

 11/07/07, 5:18 PM #4598 Krom[Fenris] Von Kaiser     Dregor Orc Death Knight   Fenris Or, in other words. RTFM!
11/07/07, 6:10 PM   #4599
Skiace
Don Flamenco

Troll Shaman

Dalaran
I have a minor comment about the Stonebreaker Totem section of the OP.
 Comparison of these 2 items provided by Panny. A: Astral Winds AEP = Percent_of_WF_Swings * Astral_Winds * Elemental_Weapons B: Stonebreaker AEP = Uptime + B1 + B2 + B3 B1: Stonebreaker AEP to WF = Percent_of_WF_Swings * Stonebreaker * Elemental_Weapons B2: Stonebreaker AEP to SS = Percent_of_SS_Swings * Stonebreaker B3: Stonebreaker AEP to white damage = Percent_of_white_Swings * Stonebreaker * (1 - MissRate) Physical Damage breakdown: Assuming two 2.6 speed weapons, flurried to 2.0 speed, means you get around 10 white swings per SS cooldown. 40% of those swings will be WF, meaning 10 white swings, 2 SS swings, 4.8 WF swings. 10+2+4.8 = 16.8 Percent_of_WF_Swings = 4.8/16.8 = 0.286 Percent_of_SS_Swings = 2/16.8 = 0.119 Percent_of_white_Swings = 10/16.8 = 0.595 A: 32 B1: 44 B2: 13 B3: 65 * (1 - Missrate) A = Stonebreaker_Uptime * (B1 + B2 + B3). 32 = 0.52 * (44 + 13 + [ 65 * (1 - Missrate) ] Missrate = 0.93 So against a standard mob, if your miss rate is less than 93%, Stonebreaker is better with a 52% uptime. Changing some values for boss mobs and assuming you have Nature's Guidance for 3% spell hit, we find that against a boss if your Miss Rate is better than 77% the Stonebreaker is better. These figures assume however that you are able to maintain a ~50% uptime, which means you must be able to shock on nearly every available cooldown.
I agree with the math and the general approach, but I think this is a less than useful way to present the result. The final comment tells people that Stonebreaker is better under two conditions:

1)miss rate is less than 77%
2)uptime on the buff is ~50% or better

Looking at the math, it's clear that as miss rate goes down, the required uptime to break even with Astral Winds also goes down. That being the case, why choose to present such an unrealistic data point as 77% or 93% miss rate, when none of us see this in game? The base miss rate against bosses is something around 26% isn't it? Furthermore, we all have 9% hit from talents, so realistically no raiding shaman is seeing miss rates worse than 20%.

Why not pick a conservative but more realistic value of 25% miss rate, and then solve for the required uptime? Doing so results in a required uptime on Stonebreaker of only 30%. Furthermore, if we go to the extreme and solve for a theoretical 0% miss rate, the required uptime is about 26%. This gives us a fairly narrow window of uptime requirements for the whole range of miss rates one would see in game, and one that certainly does not require perfect shock spam. (Edit: In fact, a 30% uptime requires an average of 1 shock per 17 seconds, by my math.)

The way the section is currently presented, the conclusion may lead some shaman to assume that Stonebreaker is only good if they can maintain constant shock spam. The math tells a different story, and I think it would be better to rephrase the conclusion and sample values used to more accurately reflect this.

Last edited by Skiace : 11/07/07 at 6:48 PM.

 11/07/07, 7:28 PM #4600 Mengus Piston Honda   Mengus Orc Shaman   Zul'Jin It's the miss rate of your SHOCK spells, doesn't have anything to do with melee hit rate.
11/07/07, 7:33 PM   #4601
Rob
Paid \$25 To Raid

Draenei Shaman

 Originally Posted by Skiace The way the section is currently presented, the conclusion may lead some shaman to assume that Stonebreaker is only good if they can maintain constant shock spam. The math tells a different story, and I think it would be better to rephrase the conclusion and sample values used to more accurately reflect this.
I agree that this section is confusing as written. I took a different route to solving this problem, and determined that you need ~30-35% buff uptime for Stonebreaker's to be better than Astral Winds. Shock miss rate would obviously impact this buff uptime but it's not required to be considered as a separate variable unless we know the mechanic by which Stonebreaker's procs (PPM? Percent chance? Internal cooldown, if any?) Unfortunately, although I recall posting that analysis to EJ, and getting a response, I can't find my post, and I'm too lazy to re-do the math... feel free to search for it, but I think I must have been sleepy while posting, hit the wrong thread, and gotten my post deleted.

Last edited by Rob : 11/07/07 at 7:38 PM.

11/07/07, 7:45 PM   #4602
Skiace
Don Flamenco

Troll Shaman

Dalaran
 Originally Posted by Mengus It's the miss rate of your SHOCK spells, doesn't have anything to do with melee hit rate.
I guess that's yet another unclear aspect of the section then, cause I obviously misinterpreted it as melee miss rate, not shock miss rate. Still, what kind of shock miss rates can we expect as enhance shaman? Surely it's much closer to 25% than 77%, no?

Edit: Anecdotally, WWS shows my personal shock miss rate to be somewhere in the ballpark of 10%.

 Originally Posted by Rob ...unless we know the mechanic by which Stonebreaker's procs (PPM? Percent chance? Internal cooldown, if any?
I was under the impression that this showed it's a simple 50% chance. Elemental Strength - Spells - World of Warcraft

 11/07/07, 7:49 PM #4603 vorda Bald Bull     Dalhia Blood Elf Paladin   Jaedenar (EU) You have 17% base chance to resist a spell vs a lvl 73 mob (of which 16% can be mitigated by talents/spell hit rating). With Nature's Guidance, you reduce your miss chance to 14% .
11/07/07, 7:52 PM   #4604
Skiace
Don Flamenco

Troll Shaman

Dalaran
 Originally Posted by vorda You have 17% base chance to resist a spell vs a lvl 73 mob (of which 16% can be mitigated by talents/spell hit rating). With Nature's Guidance, you reduce your miss chance to 14% .
Ok, so back to my original point then. A 14% miss rate on shocks leads to a required uptime of around 28%, so we're still in the general 30% uptime range.

Edit: Furthermore, the shock miss rate for enhancement shaman is going to be much more consistent from one person to the next than the melee miss rate, so it seems even more logical to use a realistic value here (i.e. 17-14% instead of 93% or 77%).

 11/07/07, 7:58 PM #4605 Rob Paid \$25 To Raid   Kungfoo Draenei Shaman   Burning Blade OK, here's a quick and dirty replication of my math. Last time I did it, I accounted for white misses but said that 50% of WF procs were MH and 50% were OH. This time, I'm too lazy. The net result of these two exclusions from the model is a higher required uptime. Real number should be closer to 30%. In a 30 second period, we get at most 10 MH WF procs, 3 stormstrikes, 15 MH attacks, and 15 OH attacks (weapon speed = 2.6, 100% flurry uptime). Astral Winds applies to 10x MH WF attacks. Include "Elemental Weapons" talent 40% multiplier. 10 procs*2 attacks/proc*80 AP/attack*1.4 = 2240 bonus AP. Stonebreaker applies to everything, but it's halved on the offhand. 10*2*110*1.4 + 18*110 + 18*110*0.5 = 3080+1980+990 = 6050 bonus AP. Solve for uptime p such that 2240 = 6050p p = 37% Stonebreaker is therefore superior if uptime exceeds 37%. Complicating factors not accounted for: * Increased white miss/glance rate (vs. yellow) * Increased critical strike chance of white attacks (vs. yellow) * This is a best case scenario in WF procs (you will not get 10 MH procs) * This is a best case scenario in Flurry uptime (you will not have 100%) By far, the largest of these factors is the exceedingly small probability of getting exactly 10 MH WF procs in a 30 second period. Therefore, this is an overestimate of the required uptime for Stonebreaker to be superior. Last edited by Rob : 11/07/07 at 8:04 PM.

 Elitist Jerks Enhance Shaman: The Collected Works of Theorycraft, Vol I