Well we certainly could do an average and work an AEP from that, but it would be pretty damn inaccurate.
I wouldn't say an average between 1.8 and 2.04 would be that big of a deal, it would certainly be more accurate than just ignoring the stat or treating it as some mysterious voodoo that can't be quantified.
I understand that the windfury totem is still the best totem to use for melee groups BUT my group recently has been shaman, rogue,druid, hunter and usually an OT protection warrior. This particular rogue usually is the highest dps'r in the guild and I drop windfury for him. I was wondering if the dps of the singular rogue outweighs the rights of the others in the group. I usually twist the totems in the raid anyway but I want to know if windfury or agility should be the totem to drop in this type of group if i am unable to twist for a few seconds.
Also if i do get a fury warrior in the group how can i educate them on the windfury change. I've looked at the totem change page and I get lost in the details of rogues and warriors and conflicting information.
In the group you described I'd probably say GoA unless that prot warrior is particularly rage/threat starved. If you're getting a fury warrior he won't need to change too much, I believe the totem change thread mentioned using heroic strike a lot more.
I currently have t3 Mainhand axe, i was wondering if its worth the effort to switch over to the tier3 mace.
My guild is working on kael'thas with SSc on farm. So theres an idea on loot available to me.
Not sure if the t3 mace with the haste proc is worth getting when there are things like syphon in my sorta-near future.
I'm not sure, but I reckon that that decision is up to you.
If you have all the cash in the world I'd say that you should go for it since that weapon will last quite a while.
(besides getting merc offhand lol)
No
[04:04:29] <Malan> Kaubel just laid the smack down in the the blizzcon thread
[04:05:07] <Kaubel> fucking idiots. i need to go on a banning rampage and put things right once and for all.
[04:05:20] <Kaubel> our forums are infested with pussy.
from a raiding stand-point, the mace's proc makes it much better than the stun from the axe, not to mention looking better.
What axe are you speaking of? I assume you thought he was talking about the 2handed mace?
[04:04:29] <Malan> Kaubel just laid the smack down in the the blizzcon thread
[04:05:07] <Kaubel> fucking idiots. i need to go on a banning rampage and put things right once and for all.
[04:05:20] <Kaubel> our forums are infested with pussy.
Just wondering what sort of proc rate is on this ring, I think im still about 8 full clears from getting it, due to slackness in hyjal over the last few weeks.
Hey everyone, im new here to EJ forums but I've been browsing them for a few weeks now. My guild isn't very progressed(Only downed Mag a few days ago >.<) so I only have limited resources, but here is my gear / stats:
Scaled Breastplate of Carnage - +6 Stats Enchant (This is until I can grab the leather one or t4 if I get lucky)
Stalker's War Bands - 24 AP Enchant (Getting the Enchant changed to 12 Str soon)
Gloves of Centering - +4 Str +6 Stam / +20 AP Gems - 15 Str Enchant
Archery Belt of the Broken
Skulker's Greaves - +8 Str x2 / +4 Str +4 Crit Gems - Soon to have 50 AP / 12 Crit Leg enchant
Veteren's Linked Sabatons - Boar's Speed Enchant
Kaylaan's Signet
Band of Ursol
Core of Ar'kelos
Hourglass of the Unraveler
The Decapitator - 20 Str (Im getting mongoose when I can get back on WoW, I also intend on replacing this with Dragonstrike when I get my blacksmithing up, hopefully within the next few weeks.
Runic Hammer - 20 Str (Until I get my Merc Gladiator Axe in 2 weeks, Axe will have mongoose on it)
With that gear my AP / Crit / HR is around 1500+ / 24 or 25 / 125 HR
Im not on a computer able to run WoW atm so I couldn't tell you my exact stats but they are somewhere around there spec'd enhancement. I just wanted some of your guys input on how good or bad my stats are before I actually do respec.
Thanks in advance to all that do respond, I do intend on checking back here later on in the day.
EDIT: I could also swap my Violet Ring of the Grand Restorer for of the Master Assassin gaining some hit that I don't need from what I've seen and a few AP, while losing some crit.
Just wondering what sort of proc rate is on this ring, I think im still about 8 full clears from getting it, due to slackness in hyjal over the last few weeks.
Interesting ring. It seems that more and more they've settled on using procs as a way to differentiate PvE from PvP gear. That way they can boost the stats on PvE without having it effect the way PvP plays out, due to usually having to spend extended amounts of time in an attack cycle to get all your procs up.
I'd imagine the proc is enough to make it worthwhile, as shamans usually make 1 PPM items (Crusader) proc at 2, and going off of dual wield, probably almost 4. Which would point at about a 50% uptime, as there's very few things less then 1 PPM.
Look at the pretty line I get when I look at AP in steps of 400, against larger steps of the increased hit and crit rate
Out of the 36 datapoints, we had:
Mean: 0.23 Dps/AP
StDev: 0.02 (9% of the mean)
This is dps/AP not (Dps/HIT)/(Dps/AP) wich is local AEP value.
Dividing something with a trend by something with another trend will yield you interesting result
Originally Posted by Disquette
It looks like we have a really great model for AP
Good, but how it is making static AEP good? This model can be used to calculate AEP values at different stat combos and that result should be evaluated. Furthermore, this graph shows (which is logical) that the more AP one has, the more important hit becomes, not static ratio hr= 1.3 ap. In other words, at every given AP value the worth of adding Hit instead of further adding AP is different.
Originally Posted by Disquette
Furthermore, since 30% is being accepted as the "close enough" barometer for values by Yo!, I'll use that to test the 36 datapoints I have. Exactly 0 of them fall outside 30% of the mean, so I guess I have a perfect data set.
Again - you are referring to the wrong data (dps/ap). This is not AEP.
30% is too much by my sense, I used it specially to show how many points are way off, not just off. Even 90% confidence is bad because it becomes (1 - 0.1^(attributes)) if used as an input of several weights, by for one by one comparisons 10% is ok with me.... almost
Originally Posted by Disquette
It even works out like we'd expect, with increasing returns on AP as our hit and crit rate increase (shown by the upward trend in the graph).
Exactly - which proves that static AEP value can not be used.
Originally Posted by Disquette
Now, back to the big_test.xls
My biggest mistake, probably, was making the steps too small. If you use larger steps, you get nicer numbers to look at. They make pretty graphs like the one above. It has so much variation between runs (that's how shaman work), that sometimes you get flukey things. When you were going through the result data, did you really think that increasing hit rating should decrease dps?
There is nothing wrong in taking small steps - you can always smooth them later. There were of course, some numbers that were negative, that should not happen at all. They occurred when AP was so small that increase of it by some percentage was providing not enough increase to dps to overcome random nature of the test. It did not happen at big numbers of AP and AP increase always resulted in dps increase (so if you are nude get big bad weapon first dont worry about gear with hit or crit). From the look at histogram you could see that there were about dozen of such negative points out of 600+.
Originally Posted by Disquette
Here's an example. I took three of the AP levels (I chose 900, 1700, 2500, because they're evenly spaced and are WAY out of each other's range, so they should satisfy your complaint about gear levels resulting diff APE ratings). I then eliminated half of the hit rating steps (increasing them by 100 instead of 50). This should give me a better picture, and again, should address your notion that APE are not valid across gear ranges.
Smoothing (increasing steps) is ok but too some extant, in order to calculate local AEP small steps are needed. Too much soothing resulted in creating static AEP that is evil.
Originally Posted by Disquette
Now let's look at the pretty picture:
No, it's not nearly as nice as the AP graph, but it's still pretty consistent. Much more than the 70% variability you were discussing. In this case, the average dps/hitrating = .275. The stdev = 0.084 (for a stdev 31% of the mean). This time, using your "30% variation is ok" concept, 71% of data points fall into the acceptable range. If I look across all gear levels, and say that each hit rating is worth just a little bit more than one AP, I'd be pretty accurate, based on the two charts I have posted above, which cover almost the entire range of gearing choices.
Again, you are referring to the wrong data. AEP is NOT dps increse/per hit increase. It is "AP equivalence" and there is no AP at dps increse/per hit increase formula. You should use (dps increase from increasing hit/ by what number hit was incresed)/(dps increase from increasing AP/by what number AP was increased)
Originally Posted by Disquette
Statistics can say what ever you want them to, pretty much. I could probably argue on Yo!'s side and say that all this theorycraft in here is utter garbage, at best meaningless to the shaman community, and at worst ill-advising people. I just need to find the right data that makes graphs that appear horrendous or beautiful.
That's why I'm glad that the theorycraft has been born out in actual game scenarios, with multiple people of varied gear-levels saying "i changed out my hit gems for AP or crit gems, started focusing more on crit and AP, and my dps went up significantly".
I don't know how shaman dps works in many instances. There's all sorts of things that are hard to account for. But just like looking for a coin at night, the first places you check is where it's already light, and you hope you find it there.
I am not saying theorycrafting is garbage in any way. I addressed very specific question "usefulness of static AEP values for gear choice" and showed that it is so limited that should be avoided because AEP is not static by it's nature - it is different for every possible combo.
I may have missed this somewhere... I just finished catching up on all of the posts, due to the recent change to the WF totem.
While raiding my typical group consists of 3 rogues and a feral druid (sometimes subbing a Rogue for a Hunter). Very recent developments actually allowed for 3 rogues and a dps war, but that is infrequent at best.
With these recent chanegs to the dps a Rogue and a Warrior recieves, what is better now? I saw one model earlier showing a Rogue with Poisons + GoA being very very close to a WF combo. And it seems that warriors gain nowhere near the benefit they once did. Which if you then add in my extra dps and the extra gained by a hunter or a druid...it may very well be possible it is no longer the correct answer to place a WF totem down.
I understand the basic mentailty to not using a WF totem is, "OMFG the world is ending!!!" but I'd like to be able to look past that and explain to my my GM and my melee dps'ers why I'm changing my totems up. And from some things I'm seeing, changing them up is the right way to go now. In the most recently posted model/example in this thread, it seems that if you have 2 class who do benefit from GoA, but cannot from WF, that GoA is now the superior totem in an Enhancement Shaman's party.
WF Totem or GoA? When to use in what combos?
1) 2 Rogue, 1 Fury War, 1 Feral Druid, 1 Sham
2) 3 Rogue, 1 Feral Druid, 1 Sham (this happens in my guild the most often)
3) 3 Rogue, 1 Fury War, 1 Sham
4) 2 Rogue, 1 Feral Druid, 1 Hunter, 1 Sham (this is the 2nd most common makeup in our raids)
The real answer would be for them to make flametongue totem's damage for the party scale in a reasonable way with the shaman's spell damage in conjunction with the upcoming changes to enhancement spell damage.
There would be a really nice synergy of another group buff that scales with the Shaman's gear there. Then you could do GoA+Flametongue totem and hopefully have comparable damage to windfury.
But then again, I've learned to stay away from "I wish" theorycraft because it's too painfull.
It would be nice if they provided an alternative outside of all windfury all the time for melee though.
Yo! can you please give us an example of some items that you think are being valued wrong across the board for all shaman? I'm just not understanding this - to me its like your saying that the Liar's Tongue gloves off Mag are only good if you're sitting at certain values of hit/crit/ap, and otherwise you should take item X - even though item X might be worse later on?
Maybe you just need to simplify what you're saying a bit.
I feel like I understand the gist of Yo!'s argument:
1) AP equivalencies are not 100% accurate.
2) Doing two simulations is theoretically a more accurate way to compare items.
3) Therefore, AP equivalencies should not ever be used.
I don't think he's getting disagreement on points #1 and #2. But point #3 is where he's getting disagreement from. Frankly, even though we are min-maxers, simulations still exhibit errors on individual runs. In fact, looking at the info Yo! referenced above, 2% (12/600) sims showed a decrease in DPS when increasing AP. Now, I'm far from an expert on statistics, but this would cause me to believe that there is a significant standard deviation on DPS when comparing multiple simulations at a single AP value. For comparison, Disquette's info showed a standard deviation of 9% for the DPS-value of AP. Unless we know that the comparison of any two sims will have a standard deviation of less than 9%, #3 is not supported; indeed, even if the standard deviation of those sims is far less than 9%, say 1%, AP equivalencies still are valuable for the sole fact that they make it very easy to compare two items.
And finally, Malan and I have requested an example of a case where an item is an "upgrade" by AP-equivalency metrics but a "downgrade" by either simulated or in-game testing. Such an example has not yet been produced, so until it is, I will continue to support AP equivalency evaluation.
1) 2 Rogue, 1 Fury War, 1 Feral Druid, 1 Sham
2) 3 Rogue, 1 Feral Druid, 1 Sham (this happens in my guild the most often)
3) 3 Rogue, 1 Fury War, 1 Sham
4) 2 Rogue, 1 Feral Druid, 1 Hunter, 1 Sham (this is the 2nd most common makeup in our raids)
I feel comfortable giving these answers:
1) WF
2) Questionable, needs math and/or further testing to back up an answer
3) WF
4) GoA
Everwatch, you may want to look into totem twisting if your group is that much into goa. All in all the WF nerf cries have been a little exaggerated. I see two combat fist/sword rogues in your guild, so for them WF would certainly still be worth it.
Well, I was actually assuming Combat Swords...
Rogue = 1% crit/40 AGI, 1 AP/AGI -> 2.3% crit, 92 AP, can apply Instant Poison. Probably less than the benefit of WF. But:
Hunter = 1% crit/25 AGI, 1 AP/AGI -> 2.3% crit, 92 AP, ~2% more Kill Commands and Feral Inspiration or Expose Weakness applications (unknown to me: crit/AGI and AP/AGI for pet; I here assume it scales consistently with the Hunter's)
Cat = 1% crit/25 AGI, 1 AP/AGI -> 3.68% crit, 92 AP
Shaman = 1% crit/25 AGI, 0 AP/AGI -> 3.68% crit, increased Flurry uptime by roughly 3.68% * 25% Flurry downtime = ~1% increased damage? (WF and white should both scale with Flurry uptime.)
If hunter DPS = 1x rogue DPS, cat DPS = 0.75x rogue DPS, and shaman DPS = 0.75x rogue DPS, then we have 2.3% + 2.76% + 2.76% = 7.82% rogue DPS (crit contributions) + some constant DPS from aforementioned AP contributions + some intangible DPS from increased Kill Commands and Ferocious Inspiration or Expose Weakness applications... if we estimate this as 2.18% (yes, chosen for convenience, but on the surface seems reasonable supposing the power of FI and EW) then Rogue DPS with Windfury must be at least 5% greater than Rogue DPS with GoA and Instant Poison.
Any testing with the new WF to show that still holds true? From the anecdotes I have seen on these boards, GoA/IP is nearly a wash with WF now for rogues. The other thread is mostly focusing on the fact that it's a huge nerf to 2H 33/28, and a reasonable nerf to DW... which are true but not useful for this particular investigation.
Last edited by Rob : 08/16/07 at 8:25 PM.
Reason: forgot to include our increased Flurry uptime
Btw speaking of AEP, can someone verify that I'm not crazy, lootzor keeps saying a pair of blue crafted gloves are some of the best available. Agree/Disagree? [Fel Leather Gloves]
Yo! can you please give us an example of some items that you think are being valued wrong across the board for all shaman? I'm just not understanding this - to me its like your saying that the Liar's Tongue gloves off Mag are only good if you're sitting at certain values of hit/crit/ap, and otherwise you should take item X - even though item X might be worse later on?
Maybe you just need to simplify what you're saying a bit.
Sure. Lets look at a guy with 5 empty gem slots, 2400 AP, 12% + hit, 18% crit.
Such guy performed 776 DPS that was recorded in big_test.xls
He is given an option to choose between 2 gems: +20 AP and +10 Hit rating assuming that color bonus does not matter for him (+1mana/5 sec). "Average AEP" says that 5*20 AP is much more favorable: 100 points against 70 points assigned to 5*10 hit rating. However, in a big_test.xls this guy with 2400+100 AP, 12% hit, 18% crit scored 790 DPS (3% increase), while the same guy with 2400 AP, 12% hit + 50 hit rating, 18% crit scored 813 DPS (4,7% increase). So, by choosing what average AEP suggested, he lost 1,7% of his initial total dps on gems alone.
So, yes, "the Liar's Tongue gloves off Mag are only good if you're sitting at certain values of hit/crit/ap, and otherwise you should take item X - even though item X might be worse later on".
@ Malan:
Seems reasonable because those gloves don't have any item budget invested in STA or INT so they have a comparatively large pool of points for AP, Crit, and Hit; additionally, the stat allocation is spread out between these three statistics and a red and yellow socket, so they aren't penalized as much by the rule that raises statvalues to the power of 1.5. (Item Values on WoWWiki for the uninitiated.)
@ Yo!:
OK, but what's the margin of error for each of those tests? Maybe the one at 2500 AP, 12% hit was under by 5% while the one at 2400 AP, 14% hit was over by 5%. Then the 20 AP gems would still be better. Focusing on the error in AEP while ignoring the error in simulations strikes me as odd.
I will also note that your example considered a person with high AP (2400) and very low hit rating (12% = only 47 hit rating), which is far from what the majority of shamans operate at. Does resocketing to hit gems still make sense at 100 hit rating? 125 hit rating? 150 hit rating? These are values more commensurate with a value of 2400 AP (even raid buffed -- and remember that you should not include UR when figuring how much base AP is needed to obtain 2400 raid AP since UR was modeled as a proc in Disquette's sims).
Last edited by Rob : 08/16/07 at 8:33 PM.
Reason: point out how far situation is from typical