http://www.gurgleblaster.net/forum/i...hp?topic=167.0 had the code for Emmerald's Sheet but the spreadsheet was removed recently. Not sure if its being added back.

http://forums.worldofwarcraft.com/th...sid=1&pageNo=1 has the link to Lolaan's spreadsheet, though it seems to be giving inflated values for Agi and Crit. Unsure if it has to do with gear setup or what though.


Ok the crit part seems consistent with what the patch notes said ("The player will gain 0.1% to their critical strike rating per weapon skill against monsters above their level.") though it doesnt specify that it stops at 15 points since it simply says mobs above your level (kinda academic since getting more than 15 weapon skill is not optimal in any case).

The hit part is what I am unfamiliar with. I dont know for sure but having a skull boss mob compared to a regular 73 mob, you end up with different hit tables (at least it seems that way). As such I didnt think that the extra miss chance on boss mobs came from extra defense but rather something attributed to the fact that it was a skull mob in and of itself. From what you have written it would appear that the extra miss chance (that brings it to 8.6 %) is due to odd mechanics of defense vs. weaponskill for higher level mobs. If ya have any reference for that I'd certainly appreciate reading it since it makes weapon skill far more valuable than I had considered.

Nor am I modeling a two-roll system for either yellow or white attacks; maybe we should see what the rogues have decided with regards to that at some point in the near future.

Ok, an increase in hit will increase your damage output by a fixed percentage; however, because percentages are scalars, this will increase the utility of your other stats (just how having no hit ~decreases~ the utility of your stats by 8.6% simply because 8.6% of the time you miss and a miss with a billion AP is the same as a miss with 0 AP).


Point.

Omen was just an example; you could be attempting to proc ~anything~ really. My point was more that missing makes nothing proc whereas a hit means you have a chance to proc something.


I don't and my valuation of hit is still higher than yours and I really don't think that my math is simply that horrible; I may have a formula wrong somewhere but I'm fairly sure that I'm not all that far off of the mark.

Statistics. If you want to know how likely it is that a random event will occur over a sequence of effects that could trigger it, you go about it in the following manner:

• Take the %Chance and generate the likelihood of the event NOT occurring (1-%Chance).
• Chance to not Occur over N Hits = (1-%Chance)^N
• Chance to Occur over N Hits = (1-Chance to Not Occur)

Thus, over 5 hits, we had a 36% chance to miss once, reducing the chance to proc OOC once, which was ~8%, by that amount (yielding an expected procrate of 5.1%).

It all depends on how exactly +Skill is modeled; again, we should probably refer to rogue spreadsheets to find out how they've decided to do it so that we can save time on that debate.

That's something else I haven't taken into account; still, it costs a good deal less and does it really do 50% less? Are you taking the lost hit into account when you turn a hit into a crit?

Hit (100%) -> Crit (210%(?)) yields a 110% increase in damage.
Miss (0%) -> Hit (100%) yields a 100% increase in damage.

So if hit costs 29% less and does 90.91% of the damage, that's pretty good in my book.

Nor can I to be honest; just presenting my PoV on the situation.

Pred Instincts states that it increases the bonus damage by 10% (as opposed to the net damage).


22 from my pair of Shattrath leggings (legguards?) (either 5.58 Skill or 5.8 skill; can't remember which).

Pretty much; I'm glad our models agree on ~something~ ;D.

As a side note, I wonder if our differing valuations for the stats are generated from using a different testing methodology & definitions (and my generally weaker tests, which are pretty much doomed to have poorer accuracy by definition); for example, I refuse to call something a 'cycle' unless I start and end at roughly the same point, especially when energy & debuffs are concerned whereas everyone else seems to use the 1 Mangle, 3 Shreds, & Rip 'cycle' (with excess energy just kinda going into the void?).

This is not correct. The text from Predatory Instinct reads: While in Cat Form, Bear Form, or Dire Bear Form, increases your damage from melee critical strikes by 2% [per point] and your chance to avoid area effect attacks by 3% [per point]. Originally it had SAID it only increased the bonus damage but it always functionned by increasing the total damage. One or two patches ago they updated the tooltip to the text I posted above.

Usually for those doing a mangle/3 shred/rip cycle end up dividing by the total energy used for this to determine DPS. As such the "extra" energy isnt wasted or anything its just taken into account in terms of decimals. Due to the fact that varying crit rates and different energy returns on a miss/dodge, finding an optimal true cycle seems extremely difficult and far too time consuming since it would need to be redone for every different crit/hit chance.

Due to the complex nature of modelling the yellow attacks I think a simulator using a RNG and thousands of seconds of attacks is probably a simpler way to get the desired results. I dont have any experience coding such things except in basic C so I wont be able to make a pretty interface or anything for it but I am working on a program to do this so hopefully I can get that done soon and post the code which may help some.

For white damage, no doubt, hit is better, point for point, than crit and that shows it. Its just for yellow where it the opposite is true due to not losing the full amount of energy on a miss (except on finishers).

Can we be certain without running a few thousand tests?

Admittedly, we don't lose 100% of the energy cost on a missed skill but, aside from that, we still have the 16.7%:29% less damage:cost ratio. Admittedly, this depends on Pred. Instincts being applied after every additive modifier; multiplication is commutative (ie x*y*z = z*x*y) so we don't care where the scalars go as long as they're all at the same level (x*(y+z) == (y+z)*x != x*y+z).

So, discounting energy entirely, hit will be better than crit. What would be a good way to model this energy loss or, if you felt like modeling it this way, bonus energy in order to determine how much it is worth?

? Which one are you referring to as the 'generally accepted best'? Surely not the Haste one? Relentless blows every meta I've used out of the water, hands down.

As for the topic, I found this kind of odd:

http://www.juggernautguild.com/wws/2...13/arkadu.html

My tooltip says 8.86 chance to hit. I didn't get a single miss the whole fight, until the instant she transformed into the Void Walker, and immediately got 5 consecutive misses; 3 melee, 2 shreds. I have no explanation for this, aside from my theory that NPCs have dynamic combat ratings, but even then, I don't see how that could have affected my miss rate like that.

Well as I posted earlier suppose you have a situation where *some* amount of hit will allow 2 hits and if instead we have crit (same %) we get 1 crit and 1 miss.

In this case, with mangle we get:

2 Hits: 2x mangle damage, 2 combo points, 2 chances at procs, 80 energy used
1 crit 1 miss: 2.2x mangle damage (2.26 with relentless earthstorm), 2 combo points, 1 chance at procs, 48 energy used.

Neglecting to the procs for a moment we have:

2*dmg / 80 energy vs. 2.2*dmg/48 energy

0.025*dmg/energy vs. 0.0458 dmg/energy

which means hit is worth 54.58% as much as crit here since as was shown in a previous post, damage is energy limited not time limited (so even if the miss makes you wait another energy tick, that extra 20 energy is not LOST but will be used at the next time). Even if we add procs here, it seems unlikely that it will make up the difference despite hit costing much less than crit.

Yup, and I model omen. If you have other things that proc off hit, then these need to be modeled. Some classes have items that proc off misses. The modeling for these belong on the item itself, and +hit will show an increased benefit if you have them in your gear set.

Right, what i quoted was a 10% raw reduction in damage plus a 36% reduction in OOC procs.
The raw reduction in white damage is under 7%, and the raw reduction in yellow damage is around 2%, so 10% is off by more than a factor of 2.
A 40 energy attack can be OOC'd by the 4 preceding white hits or the 1 preceding yellow, overlaps give no benefit. With a 3% proc chance the chance of it being OOC'd is 1-0.97^5 = 11.4%, with 8.4% to miss the proc chance becomes 2.748% (OOC and hit are independent i.e. 2 roll) giving an 11.2% chance of being OOC'd. The 0.2% difference is a 7.9% difference in OOC procs, that is, 1% hit scales extra damage to OOC by a little under 1%. Apologies if you didn't mean 36%, but it's what you said

Yes.

It's 120% not 110%, and that's white damage only. With yellow damage, crits give you combo points, and hits give you very little (100% for 40 energy vs 0% for 7 energy. Think of it as a bet, but if you win you bet 40 energy and if you lose you only bet 7).

There isn't any excess energy, because your cycle is over as soon as your energy has let you perform all the moves. Having rips overlap by enough that you lose energy ticks if you wait is rare, and an extra shred is 'close enough' to your average DPE in such cases. (and thus doesn't affect your DPS because energy is used to measure time).
If you're talking about the 5 energy leftovers, we're modelling a discrete probabilistic system continuously, so we assume continuous energy regen except when there's good reason not to. Since the exact timing of attacks mostly doesn't matter, and you've got flexibility to delay attacks to maintain the relationships you do need, this works as long as we don't use a cycle that assumes 11 shreds in 12 seconds or equal silliness.

I'd suggest a spreadsheet that models white DPS as damage-per-attack and yellow dps as damage-per-energy. Oh wait... =P

Haha, good catch - I was referring to the haste one which has been niggling at the back of my mind - I got relentless and then thought I read thundering was better. I think I got my druid/hunter threads confused.
That astromancer scenario is definitely weird. I can't think of an explanation, and I've never seen the encounter so I won't speculate. (EDIT: other than to say I don't know of any mechanic other than a visible debuff on the player, or a defense increase on the mob, that increases the player's chance to hit the mob. To give a 1% chance of missing 5 attacks in a row when you're hit capped would require a ~1000 defense increase. There's been suggestions in the past that the combat log returns dummy results when something weird happens server side. Now i'm speculating.)

Definitely, and I've run into a few more thanks to this discussion. I guess I didn't understand the logic behind the assumption that you should be hit capped. The answer seems to be threefold
* it's partly an unfounded assumption (I think this is important for people to know)
* it helps you manage your cycles more accurately, which often helps dps more than a spreadsheet would show
* +hit isn't as terrible as I thought it was, although it is the worst of the common DPS stats.

I wish they would change the system to be that logical

Calculate the chance of the attack right before you run out will miss and then calculate how much a certain amount of hit rating will help that chance... Then compare with other stats that work all the time.
Yes if you miss the first attack right before an energy tick you'll lose an energy tick instead of whatever you were supposed to lose. If you miss right before the mob dies and you can't attack another before your energy fills back up you lost the attack. And I bet you can come up with some more rare examples of where missing is worse than what it was made to be above. But those cases are few and insignificant in the long run if they even exist in the fight you're working on beating.