My apologies, I just found multiple sources citing 200%, I must have been mistaken this whole time. Was it ever 150% for melee?

Thank you, in my mind my dps just went up by around an average of 15%! =p

I'm not sure this makes any sense at all. You are claiming that your chance to crit increases if you've missed an attack? You are realizing that if you havea 30% chance to crit, and you miss, you've potentially (about 1/3rd of the time) missed a critical strike.

I would equate this to purchasing lottery tickets. If you have a 1 in 1,000,000 chance to win the lottery, and you've purchased 999,999 tickets, the next ticket you purchase still has a 1 in 1,000,000 chance to win. Basic statistics. Think of it this way: if you miss, you lose energy. If you hit, you might hit or you might crit. I don't think there's any way you can dice the numbers to prove that +hit reduces your DPS, it might appear you are doing so, but all things factored in you will break even, even if you get 2 chances to crit on the same "chunk of energy".

*IF SPECIALS WERE ON THE "ONE ROLL" SYSTEM* (which they aren't) hit *could* reduce damage done. Although the numbers only really made sense for dagger rogues.

Round numbers here:

Say your special costs 40 and hits for 1000, and you have a 90% crit rate. Combat lasts 400 seconds, giving you 100 swings. To make things even, assume a 10% miss rate and that a missed special refunds 80% of energy.

With 10% hit, you no longer miss. You crit 90 times for 180000 damage and hit 10 for 10000, for a total of 190000.

With no hit gear, you crit 90 times for 180000 damage, then miss 10 times. Those 10 misses refund enough energy for 8 more swings, which connect and crit 7 times for 14000 damage. Total is 194000.

That said, specials are on a "two roll" system, so all that is just me wasting everybodies time.

That's a fair point, to be honest I'd only taking a passing glance at Tunah's spreadsheet so I wasn't aware that it went into so much depth. Apologies for this. Admittedly it was a bit hasty to suggest that hit > strength or agi as I can't really get a feel for the relative value of the latter. What I do definitely notice though is that dropping +hit, even just a couple of percent, really hurts my overall dps. I'm not suggesting that World of Warcraft runs on a Gut based calculation system, but the way I choose to itemise does and until I'm fully satisfied that the model is thorough and accurate I'll continue to rely on my own observations.

About the model, I'm having some problems with the .xls - my excel skillz aren't exactly amazing and I'm too tired to figure out what's up right now, but there are some errors coming up on the spell ranks tab and it's putting the whole thing out. I noticed a couple of things from the HTML version though.

- You have PI down as a +10% damage multiplier on white crits. As far as I'm aware (and I could be wrong, can anyone confirm?) it effects all melee attacks including specials so the crit multipliers for shred and mangle may be incorrect. Also I'd be surprised if the PI and Relentless Earthstorm bonuses were multiplicative rather than additive, it makes marginal difference but total crit damage modifier should read 226% for all melee attacks.

- As I'm sure you're aware, with a 2 roll system increasing +hit also increases crit% on yellow attacks by (%hit gained * crit%). For example, neglecting dodge and with a base 40% crit and 2.6% hit actual crit % on specials would be 38% so adding 5% hit would increase this by 2%. Point is that with less than 8.6% hit and -5.6% chance to be dodged the value of agility and crit rating (and therefore strength/ap?) is diminished. I can see that you've accounted for a 2 roll system on the attacks tabs but I don't think the stat values tab reflects this, although it's hard to tell from the html version.

- I don't really understand where you get the values for "energy" on the attacks tab. From what I gather you're averaging out the net gain (so to speak) in energy from missed attacks and ooc procs and deducting it from the energy cost of specials. The values seem way too low though, if I'm reading it right the table reflects a ~20% reduction which seems alot more than could be attributed to 0.8E from 7.4% missed/dodged specials and the occasional ooc proc. Not to mention misses which consume ooc and missed finishers recouping zero energy.

- The percentages in the ooc fields, I'm not even going to begin to try and understand the formulae you're using (although they do seem a little over complicated to me) but what do those percentages actually represent? I'm guessing it's the chance that a special will consume an OOC proc based on ~15 specials and 2 ppm? Would be good to know how you're modeling this.

Then there are human issues which aren't easy to estimate as there are alot of factors. What it comes down to is that no-one can follow a cycle with 100% efficiency. I'd argue that +hit, besides anything else, makes cycles alot more predictable which reduces the energy wasted and hence dps lost. How much by is anyones guess, for me it depends on fatigue and how focused I am on pure dps. As I tend to tend to get stuck with leading quite often and even when I'm not I habitually keep an eye on health bars, healer mana, damage meters, threat meters and so on, I place alot more emphasis on having a predictable dps cycle than I might otherwise. Hence I personally tend to value +hit over other dps stats.

By the way, thanks for the hard work you've put into the spreadsheet Tunah it's much appreciated.

Fenwrath: Your spreadsheet demonstrates the point I was making - IF specials WERE on a 1 roll system, a crit + miss COULD in some circumstances return a higher DPE value than a hit + hit or hit + crit. This is exactly why they work on a 2 roll sytem

Yeah, I've been hearing the excel export doesn't work, seems to be a combination of bugs in google docs and in excel (the export crashes excel on my work machine). I don't own a copy of office so I'm kinda stuck. Simplest way seems to be to upload the export to google docs.

Hm, when I added this i was reading 'melee' as 'white', but it's the same wording as OOC which definitely procs off yellow, so will change this in the absence of data one way or the other.

Is there any evidence one way or the other? How does spellpower stack with ice shards?

Across swings, yes.

I'm not sure what you mean, the stat values tab simply allows you to modify your input stats (e.g. add +10str), measure the output DPS, and divide the difference by the size of the input to find the marginal gain. It's as accurate as the overall model.

You underestimate the value of OOC.
Roughly: to mangle i need 40 real energy. It takes me 4 seconds to accumulate this energy. During this 4 seconds I have 4 white attacks, any of which can proc OOC. My previous yellow attack could also have procced OOC. Since double-procs don't gain me anything (and indeed, as soon as OOC procs I can mangle), i only care whether it proced at least once in 5 chances.
This has probability 1 - (1-3.33%)^5 = 15.6%.
This ignores misses (both in that the white attacks can miss, and in that if my previous yellow was a missed mangle then i'll only get one white attack as I start with ~31 energy). The spreadsheet's calculation takes this into account.[1]

Yes, it's the chance the special will consume an OOC proc. Not sure what the 15 specials is about, but yes the assumed proc rate for OOC is 2 ppm (talents tab).
The complication is in calculating the number of white attacks that could have proc'd OOC for this yellow attack, which is a cyclic calculation, as above.

Yes. This is a definite benefit of +hit that is not and will not be modeled here

This is too much of a leap. I tend to copy the pawn scales as-is and choose in favour of +hit for close sidegrades. Alternatively you could increase the scale value of +hit, good luck working out how much by though! However, to push the numbers to one side and say '+hit > str' is (IMO) a mistake.

Glad it's at least interesting! I'm mixed irritated and guilty it doesn't work with excel.

I believe there were complaints when the original rogue 41pt combat 'your X attacks cannot be dodged' talent was released, people calculated (assuming single roll for yellows) that it reduced their damage output.

[1] There's various cyclic dependencies here - e.g. (# of white attacks per special) depends on (mean energy cost of special) depends on (chance special is ooc'd) depends on (# of white attacks per special). The dependency is inverse (more attacks -> more chance -> less energy cost -> less attacks) and the resulting sequence of estimates converges. In lieu of a closed-form solution I'm taking the mean of two consecutive estimates.

Has anyone tried equating Haste to AP yet? I've come out with a (very) borderline figure of ~0.5% dps from 1% haste (0.35% per 1% from white damage increase, ~0.15 as an increase to procs for yellow damage). Obviously this is just some random calculations I did quickly yesterday at work, and doesn't have any significant maths behind it (and I can't really work out how to equate that to an AP value either per haste rating).

Anyone fancy trying to work it out? If it's a lot better than 0.5% then the swiftstrike bracers and the belt from akama may actually be the best items for those slots as far as I can work out (at the moment the Insidious Bands and Belt of Deep Shadow beat both slightly with that value for haste).

Just added an initial version to sheet. Added a new stat 'attack speed' = 1/(1 + hasterating/1577). Changed all calculations of 'how many white attacks while waiting for X energy' from X/10 to X/(10*attack_speed). Number of white attacks per cycle was one case of this. Is this a sufficient treatment of haste effects?

In my (kara) gear, I get:
Haste = 1.41
STR = 2.60 (I'm using 5% 'half kings')
AGI = 2.83
AP = 1.00
Hit = 1.93
Crit = 1.81

EDIT: for me, this gives 1% haste = 0.41% dps. The AEP numbers are more direct for making item comparisons.

Of course remember AP also adds to specials while haste doesn't, so the calculation becomes even more complicated. There's really no escape from calculating your white DPS, special DPS, and how their sum changes as you add more of one stat VS another stat and find the break-even points for different stats.

Very interesting valuation. A couple things that are missing that makes hit more valuable are:

1. Post OoC proc specials that Miss and consume OoC. This is a 100% loss of the effective energy, rather than the normal 20%.

2. Procs, mangle up time, harder power shift rotations (both from more time spent in global cooldown and unreliable energy management),

Obviously these things are hard to calculate in a static formula but they definitely are important for overall dps.