Feral Druid Megathread - Page 76

unitsinc · 02/14/08, 6:17 AM

I'm really new, as in I just registered, and I was looking over everyone's thoughts on the best DPS gear setup and I had some thoughts on the best neck.

Hard Khorium Choker(+58 AP, +29 Haste, +150 Pen, Y (+4 AP)

Clutch of Demise(64 AP, +25 Agi, +30 Haste) seems superior.

The way I'm seeing it is:

Using a Glinting Pyrestone in the HKC, the Clutch has
+2AP(counting socket bonus)
+1 Haste
+24 Agi
-150 AP
-5 Hit
Just using Toskk's gear calc it seems that 150 armor pen and 5 hit just doesn't offset the agility.

Sorry for not linking, I don't know how.

• Falk · 02/14/08, 7:00 AM

The armor values may not be final for the druid tanking pieces, seeing as how most of the other items have armor values that do not correspond to their correct item level. The values seen currently may be <armor item budget points> + lv141 instead of the item's actual value.

edit: "budge points" = "i need coffee"

Edenfall · 02/14/08, 7:12 AM

Patch 2.4

This patch brings some interesting new alternatives to Feral Tank itemization, socket- and enchanting.

Currently, these enchants are the most used enchant for feral tanks:
[Glyph of the Defender]
[Formula: Enchant Chest - Exceptional Stats]
[Formula: Enchant Chest - Major Resilience]

Patch 2.4 introduces these interesting new enchants:
[Glyph of the Gladiator]
[Formula: Enchant Chest - Defense]

15 Defense Rating on Chest is a very good alternative to 6 to all stats and 15 Resilience if one would only need 2/3rds to remain crit immune. 15def/resilience is a good relief for those struggling.

18 stamina + 20 resilience is an even greater relief for replacing any defense enchants or gems. However the avoidance lost is huge. I am currently working on some numbers and seeing how my current gear would look like with it - whether I would gain or lose overall survival/mitigation regarding the replacements.

I am interested in hearing what thoughts you others may have about these new alternatives.
Numbers and opinions are appreciated.

Carlos · 02/14/08, 7:28 AM

Originally Posted by oldmandennis

Thinking abit more about the ideal cat set, it seems almost silly to count Kil'Jaden items in it. He is the big target - he is the one you should be planning your gearset around beating.

If you discount his loot (the Guise), then 2T4/4T6 (4: hat/shoulders 6: belt/bracer/boot/hand) takes a slight (10dps) lead over 4T6 (hat/belt/boot/bracer).

Simply going best in slot would be noticeably behind (40dps).

This is based on hand jamming stats into rawr - I haven't gotten around to doing trinkets/jewelry. I don't think that would change the relative value of the gearsets.

Do you have a list of items you used in the setup of the gearsets you mention. I would be interested in seeing those and start work with them in rawr as well.

Inaiwae · 02/14/08, 8:07 AM

Originally Posted by Edenfall

Patch 2.4

This patch brings some interesting new alternatives to Feral Tank itemization, socket- and enchanting.

Currently, these enchants are the most used enchant for feral tanks:
[Glyph of the Defender]
[Formula: Enchant Chest - Exceptional Stats]
[Formula: Enchant Chest - Major Resilience]

Patch 2.4 introduces these interesting new enchants:
[Glyph of the Gladiator]
[Formula: Enchant Chest - Defense]

...

I am interested in hearing what thoughts you others may have about these new alternatives.
Numbers and opinions are appreciated.

Head: 18 stamina 20 resil = 32 item points, 16 defense r. 17 dodge r. = 33 item points. 20 resil gives you ~ 0.5% crit reduction, 16 defense ~ 0.27%.

Chest: 15 defense rating = 15 item points, 6 agi 6 stam = 10 item points (considering only the tank-related stats).

Real value of these enchants depends on your gear setup, so it is not possible to say that they are better / worse than current ones. They bring more options for us when setting up crit-immune gear, which is very good. We will be able to dump the PVP wrists for the new T6 ones (i am currently using vindicator bracers with def enchant and 5def/7stam stone).

Enoon · 02/14/08, 9:14 AM

Originally Posted by ironwolfw

Has anyone done empirical testing to determine the proc rate on [Shard of Contempt]? Using Rawr and manually entering this into the itemCache.xml I originally assumed 1ppm which makes this trinket ridiculously good (i.e. Better then [Berserker's Call] the previous best DPS trinket for me).

I'm assuming I didn't completely fail at math since Mijae also has this trinket in the proposed end-game DPS set using the same assumption. The only data on the proc rate I've found is one unsupported post on Wowhead asserting that it has a 45-sec internal cooldown.

A few Enhance Shaman have been testing the Shard in this thread(I tried to link the exact page showing his test results...pg282 IIRC) and are indeed seeing a 45 sec cooldown.

raffy · 02/14/08, 10:44 AM

Originally Posted by Inaiwae

Head: 18 stamina 20 resil = 32 item points, 16 defense r. 17 dodge r. = 33 item points. 20 resil gives you ~ 0.5% crit reduction, 16 defense ~ 0.27%.

Chest: 15 defense rating = 15 item points, 6 agi 6 stam = 10 item points (considering only the tank-related stats).

Real value of these enchants depends on your gear setup, so it is not possible to say that they are better / worse than current ones. They bring more options for us when setting up crit-immune gear, which is very good. We will be able to dump the PVP wrists for the new T6 ones (i am currently using vindicator bracers with def enchant and 5def/7stam stone).

Are your values for defense "druid" values or traditional values? (ie. only 1/2 value considering we don't get benefit from parry and block)

For a primary tanking helm, [18 sta, 20 resil] seems pretty nice.

Inaiwae · 02/14/08, 10:50 AM

Traditional values. I guess when comparing defense and resilience it does not matter, we get only half benefit from both, but it might change the comparison of chest enchants.

Nevertheless, setting up tanking gear at high-end level is basically shuffling with the "mandatory" crit reduction stats so that you waste as little important stats as possible depending on the gear you currently have. Item values of these enchants are not that important imo.

Aganti · 02/14/08, 10:51 AM

Originally Posted by Edenfall

Patch 2.4

This patch brings some interesting new alternatives to Feral Tank itemization, socket- and enchanting.

Currently, these enchants are the most used enchant for feral tanks:
[Glyph of the Defender]
[Formula: Enchant Chest - Exceptional Stats]
[Formula: Enchant Chest - Major Resilience]

Patch 2.4 introduces these interesting new enchants:
[Glyph of the Gladiator]
[Formula: Enchant Chest - Defense]

15 Defense Rating on Chest is a very good alternative to 6 to all stats and 15 Resilience if one would only need 2/3rds to remain crit immune. 15def/resilience is a good relief for those struggling.

18 stamina + 20 resilience is an even greater relief for replacing any defense enchants or gems. However the avoidance lost is huge. I am currently working on some numbers and seeing how my current gear would look like with it - whether I would gain or lose overall survival/mitigation regarding the replacements.

I am interested in hearing what thoughts you others may have about these new alternatives.
Numbers and opinions are appreciated.

I think the addition of the resilience head enchant allows some great flexibility for your bear gear and would make the [Vengeful Gladiator's Dragonhide Helm] a very viable option for a high-end tanking set as it would allow 49 resilience to be obtained via one item.

It would then only take a [Shadowmoon Insignia], [Slikk's Cloak of Placation],[Violet Signet of the Great Protector], and [A'dal's Signet of Defense] (4 more slots) to reach the uncrittable mark.

This would give maximum flexibility for the other 7 T6 items or any non-set sunwell drops (and also make items like the [Vestments of Hibernation] more viable for lower tier tanks) , while at the same time allowing you to avoid making compromises on enchants for potential dual purpose items (such as enchanting the chest with resilience or bracers with defense).

ironwolfw · 02/14/08, 11:26 AM

Originally Posted by Enoon

A few Enhance Shaman have been testing the Shard in this thread(I tried to link the exact page showing his test results...pg282 IIRC) and are indeed seeing a 45 sec cooldown.

Great, that just leaves the proc rate as a relative unknown. I've seen a couple of references to a 10% proc rate. Using that and figuring the probability of 1 - probability of getting no proc [ 1 - (.90)^x where x is the number of hits] gives:

10 hits = 65.13%
15 hits = 79.41% - One minute mark for kitties (assuming no haste).
20 hits = 87.84%
25 hits = 92.82%
30 hits = 95.76%
45 hits = 99.12%

So it seems like 1ppm might be a little generous and it's closer to .75 ppm? (I'm not sure what the cut off would be). Even so it still comes out just below [Berserker's Call]. Looks like I'll be farming MGT as soon as 2.4 comes out for Bear and Cat.

p.s. The empirical data in that thread averaged out at 1 proc every 53.7 seconds but since it's such a small sample set I didn't include it as part of the calculations.

Allev · 02/14/08, 12:23 PM

Originally Posted by ironwolfw

So it seems like 1ppm might be a little generous and it's closer to .75 ppm? (I'm not sure what the cut off would be).

First, I'm pretty certain procs of this type can proc off of yellow attacks as well. Let's just say you have around 4 attacks in those 15 seconds (approximately one cycle, plus a little bit). So you're up to around 19 attacks at the break-even point.

Also, while you show there is a significant chance to proc late (i.e. almost 5% by the 30th swing, about 10 seconds late), you've got to realize from your numbers that it's got around 7/10 of a chance of proccing at least 5 seconds earlier than 1 minute. Modeling it as 1 PPM might actually be a little slow, and the empirical data is probably closer to reality.

raffy · 02/14/08, 12:58 PM

Oops, I made a mistake in my gear compilation on the previous page -- I forgot to add in armor from agility (Feral Druid Megathread).

This puts the new armor value at a much more respectable 35k using the new gear from Sunwell.
=> 35302 armor, 24764 hp, 71.54% dodge, 2.12% miss

ironwolfw · 02/14/08, 1:34 PM

Originally Posted by Allev

I'm pretty certain procs of this type can proc off of yellow attacks

I wasn't sure they could so I didn't include it in my calculations. Assuming they can obviously makes it even better.

Originally Posted by Allev

while you show there is a significant chance to proc late (i.e. almost 5% by the 30th swing, about 10 seconds late), you've got to realize from your numbers that it's got around 7/10 of a chance of proccing at least 5 seconds earlier than 1 minute.

Yeah this is where my math was failing me. While I know how to calculate the chance of proccing it for a given amount of time after the cooldown expires I'm not at all sure how to use that data to average out how long it will take to proc. Looking at it again I would tend to agree with you that (purely based on gut instinct) 1ppm or slightly more is a more accurate model.

• Astrylian · 02/14/08, 2:39 PM

Originally Posted by ironwolfw

I wasn't sure they could so I didn't include it in my calculations. Assuming they can obviously makes it even better.

Yeah this is where my math was failing me. While I know how to calculate the chance of proccing it for a given amount of time after the cooldown expires I'm not at all sure how to use that data to average out how long it will take to proc. Looking at it again I would tend to agree with you that (purely based on gut instinct) 1ppm or slightly more is a more accurate model.

Think of it this way. We know that Tsunami Talisman and Hourglass of the Unraveller have a 45sec cooldown and... I think it's a 15% chance to proc on crits. With a 45% crit rate, that's a 6.75% chance to proc on each hit. This one is also a 45sec cooldown, and is a 10% chance to proc on each hit, almost 50% more likely to proc on each hit. And we normally describe Tsunami/Hourglass as 1ppm, so this is at least 1ppm, if not faster.

Allev · 02/14/08, 4:08 PM

The formal way of doing it has to incorporate misses and haste, which depends on the gear set.

time to proc = chance of first hit proccing * time till first hit + chance of second hit proccing if 1st didn't * time till second hit + ...

Assuming a yellow attack every 3 seconds (two ticks, 40+ energy) would be a safe low-end estimate, so it's 4 attacks every three seconds (with no haste). Chance of xth hit proccing is .1 * (1-misses-dodges) * (1-(sum of proc chances from 1 to x-1).

Is anyone up-to-snuff on solving arithmetic series?

Edit: Or is it sum(1-(chance to hit * .9^x)) for x= 1 to infinity, then seconds to proc is that number times 4/3? Silly math.

charriu · 02/14/08, 5:41 PM

Originally Posted by Allev

Assuming a yellow attack every 3 seconds (two ticks, 40+ energy) would be a safe low-end estimate,

Wouldn't two ticks be 4s?

Feorthas · 02/14/08, 6:38 PM

Originally Posted by Allev

The formal way of doing it has to incorporate misses and haste, which depends on the gear set.

time to proc = chance of first hit proccing * time till first hit + chance of second hit proccing if 1st didn't * time till second hit + ...

Assuming a yellow attack every 3 seconds (two ticks, 40+ energy) would be a safe low-end estimate, so it's 4 attacks every three seconds (with no haste). Chance of xth hit proccing is .1 * (1-misses-dodges) * (1-(sum of proc chances from 1 to x-1).

Is anyone up-to-snuff on solving arithmetic series?

Edit: Or is it sum(1-(chance to hit * .9^x)) for x= 1 to infinity, then seconds to proc is that number times 4/3? Silly math.

Actually, the best way of finding the chance of X occurring in Y independent trials, you compute the chance that it wouldn't happen and then swap that.

So, in this case we look at:

%Chance of proccing in N hits = 1 - (chance to not proc)^N

Cat swings in N seconds = N * (1+%Haste) + INSTANTS

INSTANTS = 15s of typical cycle (150--ok, 154--energy nets us 4, in this case; however, I don't
                    think rip counts as it does no instant damage. Correct me if I'm wrong)

Caveats:
-Everything hits
-Cycle has a 1 mangle, 2 shreds, 1 rip; uses 152 energy (dont care about CP, just energy usage)

So, rough numbers, ignoring haste, give us 18 hits in 15 seconds; that's 18 chances for the proc to occur. That yields the following:

Likelihood of Proccing in N hits = 1 - (1-procrate)^18

If the procrate is somewhere in the ballpark of 10%, we get an 85% (ok, 84.99) chance to proc every minute.

If anyone on the PTR wants to load up procwatch (or whatever proc-tracker addon is popular these days) and beat on some of the invincible mobs in blasted lands, we can get the exact %chance, within a small error term, but I'd be willing to guess that 10% is, in fact, pretty close.

Malazaar · 02/14/08, 7:39 PM

I may be off since my last statistics lession is a bit far behind, but isn't the expectation value in a 10 % proc chance scenario (what comes out on average) simply 10 attacks / proc ?

Akhtal · 02/14/08, 8:30 PM

Very funny since I took my stat exam this morning...

You're looking at a Bin- type law, where r is the number of "success" you want to have, in our case, 1

Expectation is r/p, so 1/0.1, so it will procs on average at every 10th attack, a little over 1 ppm...

spartakos · 02/15/08, 4:35 AM

Don't forget that the new trinket lasts for 20secs!!! (All other trinkets with ~1ppm last 10sec even Tsunami)

seminarca · 02/15/08, 5:37 AM

[Commendation of Kael'thas] was nerfed from 380 dodge rating to 152, duration remains the same.
http://static.mmo-champion.com/mmoc/...ionchanges.jpg

• Daboran · 02/15/08, 6:22 AM

Originally Posted by seminarca

[Commendation of Kael'thas] was nerfed from 380 dodge rating to 152, duration remains the same.
http://static.mmo-champion.com/mmoc/...ionchanges.jpg

I don't think a nerf was really necessary - although on the face of it it looked good, the proc is still very situational - I dont see my health below 35% enough to make me rush out and farm for it.