So, two things:

1) I admit I am conjecturing a bit here, but it is my impression that most people overestimate the benefit gained via extra combo points due to higher crit rate. It helps, to be sure, but I'm reasonably sure that the majority of the damage gained via a crit is from the damage itself and not from the combo point.

2) Increasing crit rate by 15% doesn't give 15% more crits; in reality, the number is more like 10% assuming a typical crit rate (with a 30% crit rate, expected combo points per Mutilate is 2.51; with a 45% crit rate it's 2.7, which is less than 10%). Regardless: you gain an extra .2 combo points per Mutilate. That's 1 combo point every 5 finishers, and thus ~20 Mutilates to get enough combo points for an extra finisher - assuming you don't waste any of those procs, which you likely do (unless you're doing 3+ cycles, anyway). So best case scenario, you get an extra Eviscerate every 2 minutes or so. An Eviscerate does, what, 2400 average damage at the absolute maximum? If so, we're gaining 2400/120 = 20 DPS from the combo points, and in reality I'd be willing to bet that that estimate is generous. So is it negligible? No. It does have an effect. But it's maybe a quarter the benefit of the raw crit damage and thus doesn't really change the underlying point.

Thinking about it more and doing a little back of the envelope math it looks like you're definitely going to end up wasting more CPs with the new talent, at least with a 4+ cycle. Basically, there are 2 sequences that can cause a wasted combo point:

no ruthlessness proc -> mut crit -> mut crit

and

ruthlessness proc -> mut non-crit -> mut crit

Assuming 30% base crit, the chance of wasting a combo point on any giving cycle is:

without Puncturing Wounds
.4*.51*.51+.6*.49*.51 = 25.4%

with Puncturing Wounds
.4*.6975*.6975+.6*.3025*.6975 = 32.1%

I wonder if the change is enough to justify switching to a 3+ cycle (ensuring 0 wasted CPs)?

edit -- hm, I didn't take into account that you generate 0 CPs if neither Mut swing hits....that'll actually increase the the proportion of hits that generate 3 CPs, and thus means even more wasted CPs.

edit 2 -- if this change goes through, perhaps Mut is competitive enough that modeling it correctly should become a higher priority? *wink*

Maybe I'm behind the times -- I haven't been able to keep up for a bit now -- but isn't the inability to adequately model Seal Fate a big part in modeling Mutilate?

Well, none of the existing spreadsheets do a 100% accurate job of it, but that's not so much because you fundamentally can't as the fact that it's a pain so no one has done it yet. I have no particular doubt in my mind that if I had a week or two and nothing better to do I could get a good Mutilate/SF model built. It's just that I don't have that sort of free time, and I have lots of better things to be doing.

Now, if people are seriously interested, I might be able to throw together some rough (very rough) approximation of what's going on for those of you who might be interested in some ballpark figures. The level of accuracy would definitely be below what's possible for Combat Swords right now, but it might give a rough idea of stat priority and scaling. I haven't done so already mostly because I'd rather see it done right at some point.

It's actually not that hard to model. The hardest part of a perfectly accurate modeling is the disruption to one's cycle based on so many possible outcomes and cycle lengths. Much of that can be mitigated by intelligent adaptation of one's cycles on the fly.

Much of the myth of Seal Fate being difficult to model arose from an earlier spreadsheet error in the DPS spreadsheet. Many people called it difficult to model because the DPS spreadsheet was showing unachievable DPS amounts. What really happened was the the spreadsheet was adding instant attack damage to every Seal Fate procced combo point. When this bug was fixed, the displayed DPS values look to much more closely match reality.

In fact, the current Seal Fate modeling (even for non-Mutilate builds) is looking pretty good now that the bug was repaired.

Realistically, it might also be best to just go the simulator route with this - it'd be a lot easier to do comparisons between cycle strategies with a simulator.

Sorry to sway from the current mutilate discussion, but imo it's time for another look at the rogue tank theorycraft.

Goal: To hit 103+% avoidance, and thus be immune to melee while still providing great anti spell in CloS, enveloping shadows, and cheat death. We already know how this works and there isn't a cap(like the 99% spell hit)due to the lv10 dodge rating sploitz - YouTube - Level ten twink SOLOS VanCleef and thus now all we need to know is it possible to get to that gear level.

We can technically be under that, and allow for mongoose procs, ghostly strike, cheat death, evasion and various other active models, the more under we get the more odds that in a 10 minute fight we'll eventually go down due to bad luck. So I went on to warcrafter and put up a demo char, with the max possible gear. It was shockingly close to the goal, once you add in motw/grace/kings/agi elixir/agi food. Here it is~

70 Troll Rogue

Better yet, so far the 2.4 gear is only going to make it better. ~+45 extra agility(mostly due to t2 eng and leggings of immortal beast) is easily putting it into imba range.

Secondary issue being threat. The biggest advantage a rogue tank brings to a raid is that "healers" now all of a sudden actually DPS. So while a few classes might have to slow down some, even more are actually DPSing, or if there is lead up time(like on a high king maulgar based encounter) it doesn't hurt whatsoever. Better yet, on a fight like VR you would simply dodge all the knockbacks and not be harmed whatsoever ^_^.

Thoughts? Anyone willing to transfer some spinels to the PTR to try it out? Will this be nerfed 5 seconds after it is perfected?

That stage is almost ready to be rolled out actually. Ashtongue is currently modeled in the new format and is currently adjusted post-estimate. The same is coming for all other proc models. The stage after that will have a Macro iteration where the estimated values will be determined by the results, iterated a few times (in fact one could pop the Macro again and be as scientifically accurate as one desires).

What I am saying is there is a pretty reasonable model currently available which does adjust well vs. stats. Many procs are still hit estimated, at least as they were modeled before, the rest are coming in the next update or two.

(edit) Never mind, apparently insanity reins on these forums. Just keep it out of this thread, as this thread is about rogue DPS, not tanking.

Thanks for the link, can't believe I missed it. And Vulajin, how rude. It's clear by the topic title that its overall stat-crunching, why else would it be here over the 5 other dps threads?

If you can explain to me the practical application of rogue tanking, I'm very interested to hear about it. Otherwise, you're wasting space in a raiding-oriented thread to discuss something that will most likely be used once in a gimmick 10-man run.

I realize this has probably already been asked an answered already, but im lazy. I just wanted to know about how much passive armor pen. does it take for executioner to be worth it? I am currently at the T6 level(well my guild is but im way under geared). Any sound advice would be greatly appreciated. Thanks

PS:First Post!

The current section on Executioner is based on flawed evaluation of the enchants due to a bug in the Rogue Gear Spreadsheet. Executioner still surpasses Mongoose at a certain level of gear; however, because of the Warp-Spring Coil and extremely high amounts of passive armor penetration on Sunwell gear, having Executioner on top of those things would result in wasted armor penetration much of the time on low-armor bosses. (A fully debuffed raid boss with 6200 armor goes down to 2190.)

Considering that it'll be pretty difficult to avoid the armor penetration on Sunwell gear no matter what you do, it's probably the best bet simply to ignore Executioner and keep Mongoose, using Warp-Spring Coil until you have over 1190 passive armor penetration and then swapping it in on fights against high-armor bosses.

Sure thing.

Assuming one can get to the unhitable status.. it trivializes the majority of the fights in the game. Not only does it improve DPS of the raid by swapping your prot spec warrior to a rogue, you also clearly don't need as many heals. Thus you can swap out healers for more DPS, which simplifies any 'we lose if he isn't dead by 6 minutes' encounters. Speaking of which, it also allows the raid to bring in extra healers in encounters where there is a great need for raid healing that also needs DPS to beat an enrage timer, as since you never get hit the enrage does nothing.

You completely ignore the actual realities of encounters because you're so fixated on this idea that you can dodge every attack. This isn't Final Fantasy XI. What about threat? Your DPS will be terrible with this spec, and you already have a built-in 29% threat reduction that you can't negate. You have no high-threat attacks or abilities either. Your DPS will be so threat-capped that encounters will take longer regardless of how many healers you leave behind.

Let's look at some actual raid encounters.

High King Maulgar - Yes, this is trivialized.
Gruul - Your threat problems will make this fight take forever. By the time it ends, most likely Gruul's grown enough to one-shot your Hurtful tank. Or do you plan to tank the Hurtfuls too?
Magtheridon - This is trivialized as well.

Hydross the Unstable - Your threat problems will essentially make this impossible due to transitions.
The Lurker Below - Geyser is not your friend. Additionally, if you tank any of the adds, better not expose that rear arc of yours.
Leotheras the Blind - Since most of the damage is done during demon phase, the first 85% are doable. The last 15% will be hell due to your threat issues.
Fathom-Lord Karathress - Not sure which one you're fixing to tank here. Priest would be essentially impossible, so I'd have to imagine Karathress himself, but I'm pretty sure Tidal Surge suppresses avoidance, so you'd be killed during that. If not, then this is trivialized.
Morogrim Tidewalker - Your threat problems will make this take FOREVER. Your healers will run dry because you have forgotten that people other than the main tank sometimes take damage.
Lady Vashj - Completely impossible unless you can hit 100% miss+dodge, because parry won't save you on her ranged attacks. Also better hope your shaman never misses grounding a single Shock Burst.

Al'ar - No taunt, no Intercept, no Intervene, you're pretty much screwed after every Dive Bomb. On the bright side, though, you can tank even with Melt Armor.
Void Reaver - An already trivial fight is further trivialized, grats.
High Astromancer Solarian - Yeah, um.
Kael'thas - A single uninterrupted Fireball will kill you. To the best of my knowledge, his spells can't be cloaked, but I certainly may be mistaken.

Rage Winterchill - Again, an already trivial fight is further trivialized.
Anetheron - Same deal.
Kaz'rogal - Your threat problems will ruin any attempt. Also, I don't think his War Stomp can be dodged, it can only be resisted, so the first one that hits you will wipe the raid.
Azgalor - Might be trivialized, though the Rain of Fire will make things fun for you if it happens during his Howl.
Archimonde - Unless you have 3+ Fear Wards to be used exclusively on you throughout the fight without fail, this is completely impossible.

High Warlord Naj'entus - Might be trivialized.
Supremus - Your threat problems will force the raid to deal most of its damage during the Gaze phase, which greatly increases the threat of volcanoes.
Shade of Akama - Another trivial fight further trivialized.
Teron Gorefiend - Your threat problems will make this fight impossible.
Gurtogg Bloodboil - Can't speak to this fight, as I haven't done it.
Reliquary of Souls - Impossible due to lack of Spell Reflect.
Mother Shahraz - Can't speak to this fight, as I haven't done it.
Illidari Council - Can't speak to this fight, as I haven't done it.
Illidan Stormrage - Obviously impossible.

Considering that most of the fights you're "trivializing," you're also making take much longer due to your terrible threat, what do you really think is gained by going to the immense effort and expenditure to gear up a complete gimmick tank?

(edit) Oh, how could I forget, the wonders of Cheat Death mean that in several of the situations I identified, you would not immediately die, but rather survive by the skin of your teeth. Still not buying that as a justification.

And just to add, you're talking about this being possible now with the addition of Sunwell gear. If you're getting sunwell gear (and passing Brutallus), I don't think your raid group is concerned with a SINGLE enrage timer in the entire game. Same kinda goes for all the T6 gear that you've got listed - by the time you've collected the set of gear to be able to do this, it's not in any way useful.

Okay, I think the truth of the matter with rogue tanking is somewhere in between the two perspectives put forward in the previous posts. Is it a broadly applicable topic of use to all rogues, and thus deserving of a place in the Roguecraft 101 thread? No. It is primarily a gimmick, and it's only going to be useful to a few people. But, on the other hand, as things currently stand, there are some fights that would be significantly eased through use of a 100% avoidance tank. The aggro issues are a concern... but they're not insolvable. Your DPS is probably 30% lower than a typical rogue's... but since you won't have salv (because you're tanking), you gain some aggro back. Doing 70% as much damage without salv means your aggro is exactly the same as it usually is, which, while less than that of a tank (obviously) is not ridiculously much lower.

In terms of which fights this is actually useful on - admittedly, it's not a lot of things. In BT alone I can definitely see it working on Teron and Naj'entus, and Gurtogg, Reliquary, Mother, and Illidan aren't totally out of the question. In Hyjal, Anetheron, Rage, and Azgalor are all possibilities.

So, again: yes, it's something of a gimmick. But it's a potentially useful gimmick (at least until someone actually does it, in which case a minimum avoidance chance will be rapidly hotfixed in), so it's a valid discussion topic. But as a gimmick topic, it doesn't belong in the general rogue thread.

At end-game stage one has around 40% raidbuffed crit, which would mean a 55-60% on mutilate.
As for how much this can actually help mutilate raiding... Note that we haven't seen s4 weapons, so it's too early to tell, but by the looks of it, unless sporting Crux+Shiv it's not going to change much.

Now if they'd change it a selfbuff that's active for 10 seconds after a Backstab or Mutilate...
Although that would probably be break more things than just fixing daggers.

On the 100% avoidance tanking... It would make Kalecgos quite easy, although I won't spoil it, banhammer I like not.
I need to get my avoidance gear done before 2.4 goes live for that though.

Ok so, tonight I snagged Boundless Agony and Tracker's Blade for when they buff Mutilate (finally!), and since the daggers look so awesome, and combat daggers can be just plain fun sometimes, I decided to give it a shot in the Rogue Gear Spreadsheet. Now, I plugged in cookie cutter 15/41/5, and for kicks decided to take out two points from Opportunity and put them in Murder and saw about a fifteen DPS increase (on the sheet). I'm not sure if there's a discrepancy in the sheet or something, but do you think that 17/41/3 might be a bit better than what is the currently accepted combat daggers cookie cutter? Again, going Combat Daggers kind of nerfs you as it is, but it is kind of fun.

Well, so the key about that is that the Murder estimate in that spreadsheet does not make any assumption about what fraction of mobs you face are Murderable. It's certainly true that 17/41/3 will do more damage than 15/41/5 against the targets Murder effects - but against everything else, it'll be significantly less. So which is better? Sort of up to you. But with the lack of Murderable mobs in BT/Hyjal, I'd someone lean towards skipping Murder for more general-purpose damage.

Yeah, that does make alot of sense. I totally overlooked that. Thanks =)