Ok let's use first the accurate scale for my gear set.
-----------
Focused mana bindings

19spellhit
42 dmg
~= 75 dmg

Bracers of Nimble thought

28 spellhaste
32 dmg
~= 69 dmg

2 hit gems
20 hit
~= 34 dmg
2 dmg gems

[top] 24 dmg

thusly swapping out SPINELS would net me 4 spelldmg. Please keep in mind most everyone used halfcast in 2.2 and was all spinels.
-----------
Now using your hit scale

focused manabindings ~

61 dmg
Bracers of nimble thought ~= 69 dmg

2 hit gems ~= 20 dmg
2 dmg gems = 24 dmg
-----------------

I hope you can see that your faulty equivalence of 1 dmg = 1 hit would throw you off quite significantly and in fact makes you think backwards about gear - in your scale you end up looking at which HIT pieces are the smallest dps loss - when in fact it's the other way around and of course would lead someone to believe they needn't get hit capped - another falsity.

Again, you continue to make the assumption that the lost hit will be regained through gemming. It is not the job of the spreadsheet to assume that you will always make a specific sort of tradeoff, as the various tradeoffs have different cost/benefit ratios.

I already said I'm assuming you ARE capping hit. I don't see how you could come to the conclusion that it's ok to NOT cap hit. When you're under the hit cap you get the hit in the place where it would cost minimum spell damage. Now that you have it, getting additional hit is as good as the dmg you'd get from swapping your other hit gear (gems) to dmg.
I never said that "go blindly with 1 dmg = 1 hit", but that once you cap your hit it's quite a good approximation for looking at additional gear, assuming you're making up for lost hit elsewhere. If you ignore the lost hit and leave yourself non-hit-capped then sure you'll screw your dps over.

And I also said that when you're using epic gems it's 1 hit = 6/5 dmg due to no rounding error, which would make 2 hit gems = 2 dmg gems, except you use the hit gems if you're not capped and use the dmg gems if you are.

This response was addressed above, but to clarify: you're kind of missing the point. The purpose of this sheet is to compute the relative value of each stat at your current gear level, to give you an easy way to mentally evaluate items. The sheet doesn't know what particular items you're contemplating and what tradeoffs you have to make. You do know that, however, and can use the values to help evaluate whether a particular tradeoff is worthwhile.

A lot of times, if you're looking to decide on a close item comparison with everything else fixed, it's best to simply look at one of the more elaborate sheets like Vontre's. I made this tool, however, because knowing your stat equivalances is a useful thing for any DPS player. A lot of people fall into a pattern, now that these elaborate DPS spreadsheets exist, of relying on them for nearly everything. And that's not only inconvenient, but it lessens your understanding of your class.

In fact, the tendency of the average player to not habitually think in this manner (marginal gains of different stats), is probably significantly responsible for the incredible general reticence people seem to have towards accepting spell haste as a very strong new stat.

-----

As to the hit argument:
What he's saying seems reasonable. If you're at hit cap (like many Mages), and are working under the assumption that you will be hit-capped with either of two potential items, then the meaningful effect of any hit difference they might have is determined by orange<->red gem swaps. That said however, it's important to keep track of the real value of +hit for your character. And regardless, that's the whole point of the sheet in the first place--to provide that information. The fact is, any Mage gearing decision involves a bit of a problem-solving exercise involving the hit cap. The sheet just gives you a good metric to evaluate your available options.

My first post here, please be gentle folks.

I currently have a 41/0/20 frost spec that results in me getting a 150% dmg bonus when I crit with a frostbolt.

My post is to ask two questions:

One: If, because of this 150% value for the "C" variable on Arawethion's formula-

(http://elitistjerks.com/567618-post102.html),

I should in effect be valuing crit higher than +dmg or +hit, as each time i crit, i get the effect of
one and a half additional frostbolts? I am mostly able to follow the math, but my confidence
in my understanding of it is shaky.

Two: If I am not hit capped(currently I am far from it), can I effectively counter that by itemizing for
crit? I suffer a 16% chance for my spells to be resisted, thus losing the 2.5sec window (no spell haste
unless icy veins is active) for the casting of that frostbolt... however, my crit rating is almost 20%,
meaning that I get 1.5x dmg more often than I get 0 dmg per casting. It seems to me that at my
early Karazhan gear level, it is much easier for me to itemize for +crit and +dmg than +hit, but from
what I have been reading, people would think me a retard for taking this route, or perhaps even
being frost in the first place.

I was considering itemizing for straight dmg with whatever hit and crit I could easily pick up,
but this seems counter to the math presented, though that math seemed based on variables that are
slightly less applicable to my spec.

In short: No. You have to be able to hit to be able to crit, so hit rating will always be better, period. Be sensible of course (1 hit rating isn't worth 32 crit rating, but it's certaintly worth 3 or 4, I'd say)

Also, people won't call you retarded for being frost, but for being Arc/frost.

My apologies. I dont have access to Excel, so I dowloaded the viewer to look at the spreadsheet, and as it comes, most of the charts are over my head which is frustrating. I would like to plug my values in a check out some options I have, but am unable to do so at this time... and also, I would just be blindly trusting the computations of the tool rather than understanding them, and I would rather understand.

I have been trying to search and poke around to find an explanation I can fully understand about why spell hit is superior to other stats while you are under the cap, but sadly it hasnt been clicking for me. Im going over the math
shared in the mage informational thread, and it still isnt clicking for me.

Maybe I really am just a monkey brained loser, but before I accept that pathetic title, I would like to try and explain
in my own simple(?) words what my understanding is using an example with some basic (and probably oversimplified) math. I would very much appreciate it one of the gurus here would look it over, and try to understand my train of thought enough(at all?) to point out to me where I'm missing something critical.

For my example, I would like to make the following assumptions for the purpose of keeping the math simple for me:

Minimal/negligible lag.

The spell in use is improved Frostbolt (2.5 sec cast)

The time span is 25 seconds. (10 castings)

The chance to "miss" is 10% (assumes a combination of gear and talents to reduce base chance to miss by 6%- ie.
1 out of 10 frostbolts will 'miss')

Chance to crit is 20% (2 out of 10 frostbolts will crit)

Crit dmg bonus is 150% (so 2 crits equals the dmg of 5 non-crits)

So 10 Frostbolts total. 1 misses, 2 crit, 7 hit normally.

Over the 250 seconds, we have the equivalent of 12 frostbolt hits.

The total dmg lost over the 25 second window by one 'missed' frostbolt could be regained by +126 to spell hit.

(ie 12.6 +hit = 1% to hit)

That lost frostbolt 'hit' could be countered and then some (an extra half a frostbolt) by an extra crit, requiring 10% additional crit to get said extra crit within the 25 second window, or +221 crit. So if we aim to get +6.6% crit for the 25 second window, it would theoretically even out over a 75 second window... requiring an additional +145 to crit.

(ie. 22.1 crit = 1% to crit)

So for this example it seems that 1 spell hit equals 1.15 crit roughly.

(145 +crit / 126+hit) = 1.15crit/hit


This proves that point for point in the above example, hit is greater than crit up to the cap...however the reality I have seen is that to get +hit on gear, you lose more than 1.15 crit per point of hit... sometimes around double or triple. (ie. I could swap gear with the same int/stam/+dmg to get +12 spell hit, but i would end up losing +24 crit) So I am not likely to ever see a point for point exchange between hit and crit...

I am not sure how to structure my example to compare +dmg effectively, but I am working on it. Advice or relevant links would be awesome...

Now I know I am probably missing some critical factors or elements in these calculations, and I would very much appreciate being informed/enlightened as to where and what they are. I do apologize for 'not getting it', I very much want to.

Simplified explanation:
When you're close to the hit cap, 1% hit is 1% dps increase (slightly more, but doesn't matter).
For 1% hit you need 12.56 rating or something.
For 1% DPS you need somewhere in the area of 20 spell dmg (this varies a bit depending on your gear but just to give you an idea).
12.56 hit rating in itemzation cost 12.56~15 spell dmg. So in most items dropping 20 spell dmg (1% DPS) would increase your hit rating by more than enough to increase your dps by well over 1%.

Do similar math for crit rating and you'll see how it's even weaker.

All ratings have same cost on items, if you need to drop a lot of crit rating/dmg for little hit rating, you're probably not using good hit items. Look up wowhead or whatever to see where better ones drop, or better, just gem your gear with dmg/hit gems as those only lose 1 dmg per hit rating gained - very very good deal if you need hit rating. If you're losing a 5 dmg 4 crit gem for a 5 dmg 4 hit gem you gain even more as 4 crit is even weaker than 4 dmg.

My understanding of the (piercing ice? ice shards? Sorry, not frost) talent that increases your frostbolt crit damage is that it's +100% of the spell critical bonus, which is 50%. In other words, not:

but rather the crit damage bonus is 100%. Two crits is equal to four frostbolts. (Of course, it's been a long time since I was frost, and I could be horribly, horribly wrong. At which point I reccomend you point and laugh.)

That issue alone will normalize your math a bit, but also, you're oversimplifying the calculations. There's a chance you will miss a frostbolt that would otherwise have crit (1/10 CRIT frostbolts will be lost with a 10% miss chance). If others haven't replied more thoroughly, I'll break out some more math when I get home. (I'm currently slacking off from filing at work. :P)

average dmg/cast = (base spell dmg + spell dmg from gear * (base coefficient + talent coefficient bonus)) * (1 + sum of talent dmg bonuses) * (1 + crit chance*crit coeff) * (1 - base miss + hit from gear + hit from talents) * (1 + sum of debuff dmg bonuses)

Note that percentages should be put in as a fraction (aka 3% = 0.03). Base miss for a boss is 17%, hit from talents is 6% for frostbolt and 3% for fire spells, 10% for arcane spells. Crit coeff is 0.5 untalented, 1.1 for fire, 1.45 for arcane+fire, 1.25 for arcane/frost. Talent coeff bonus is the exact % you have in your talents. Frostbolt base coefficient is 0.95*3/3.5, fireball base coefficient is 1.
Remember that there's more than just the average dmg/cast for your dps, such as cooldown uses etc, but that formula is the basis for all spreadsheets.

You are correct about the Ice Shards alone being only 100% bonus to crit dmg. I am Arc/Frost(spec is in my profile), so I also have Spell Power, which gives my all my spells a 50% crit dmg bonus on top of Ice Shards. So 2 crits should be 5 frostbolts, as what I have seen from testing is, with my piddly ~700 +dmg, my frostbolts hit for about 1200 normal, and
crit for 3k.

Also, from reading another thread which I cannot remember at the moment, it was apparently discussed that % to hit and % to crit are factored into a single roll. (ie. 1-100 roll, if 10%chance to miss, and 20% crit, then if roll is 1-10 = miss, 11-79 = normal hit, 80-100 = crit)

If that is correct, a spell need not hit first in order to subsequently crit on a separate roll... if the roll is within crit range, the spell has hit by default and does crit dmg, assuming that info was accurate, otherwise i need to go back and do a 27.5 second window with a 9.1% chance to miss(1 out of 11 will miss).

Somewhat simplified explanation:
Mage spells use a two-roll system. The first roll is either a resist or a hit. If you get a hit the second roll occurs and this is where the type of hit you get is determined.

Basically, you can't crit until you hit and this is why (among other things) hit rating is so much powerful than crit rating.

You got your facts wrong.

Binary spells (any spell that either does not deal damage or applies a non-damaging debuff that isn't a proc or generated from talents) use a 1-roll system. This typically will mean frostbolt and counterspell for the most part.

Any other spells will fall under a non-binary spell, which uses a 2-roll system. Basically, the way binary spells work is that since the debuff you apply cannot be partially resisted (ex: it doesn't makes sense to resist 50% of a frostbolt debuff), then the entire spell will fall under the clause of a binary spell. Also, if you spec with 5/5 impact then that won't work even though you can't half-resist an impact-proc, but the fact that impact is not part of your spell, but more like a server-side event, it will not be registed as a binary spell.

This doesnt match what I have seen from play experience.

My FB hit for 1200. When I crit it is over 3k.

Ice shards increases crit dmg by 100%. Spell Power increased crit dmg by 50%. Add them together, 150%.

See... this is where Im going to prove to you all that Im a retard... I have tried every spec I can imagine. Full arcane, Full Fire, Full Frost, Deep Arcane with some fire, Deep Arcane with some frost, Deep Fire with some arcane and frost, Elementalist, Deep Frost with some arcane, etc...

Every time I have been fire, it has been new and fun for like a week, and then I start getting irritated with it. Between fire immune mobs kicking my tookus(doesnt happen often, but to me is extremely irritating), partial resists, my inability to properly maximize my DPS with it, and the longer cast time throwing my timing off, I just dont have fun with it... and I was thinking after my first post that this might come under scrutiny, so I started trying to figure out the main reason why...

From thinking it over, the best main reason I can give will sound trite, but... in the end, I have to admit, the extra .5 second on the cast time for improved fireball compared to improved frostbolt just plain straight out pisses me off. I mean it actually makes me angry. I know, I know, its half a frigging second... but my internal timer just hates it... and that seems to be the main reason I cant enjoy being fire for extended periods. Right up along side that is the fact that I get pissed when im casting a fireball or a scorch while the mob is <20% and it dies before I can reap the extra dmg from molten fury. So yeah... my confession is that Im just a frost loving hippie freak... with some closet arcane tendencies....

That's correct. It just proves a crit does 225% of a hits damage though.

The base crit is 150%. This means the critical bonus is 50%. Increasing that by 100% gives a bonus of 100% (50 + (50*1)), and increasing it by 150% gives a critical bonus of 125%(50 + (50*1.5)), meaning your crits do 225% damage of a normal hit.

Then its bugged. Im not kidding.

Test it if you don't believe me.

Based on your math, my frostbolt crits should only be doing 2.7k dmg.

They Always do 3k+

Great tool thx

Oh sure, I was thinking about that. I have to admit Im doubting myself a bit because the math presented makes more sense to me now (assuming it is accurate that the crit dmg bonuses are additive), but I am at work so unable to test it myself right now... but unless my memory is going out the window, Im all but certain my FB almost always normally hit for a little bit over 1200... no CDs, no buffs, items, normal gear, etc... and that my crits always do over 3k... but now Im gonna have to go run something, and get a screenshot of my combat log.

In the end, its only a difference of a .25 in the multiplier, so maybe the numbers will work out to 2.25 on average... maybe my FBs hit harder than I think normally... or maybe Im not crazy and the crit dmg bonuses are multiplicative?
(.5 * 2 * 1.5)x = 1.5x

I apologize in advance for wasting people's time if I am incorrect. Its happened plenty of times before

Edit: Well I still havent been able to get home and test, but I went back to my armory profile, and checked base FB dmg. I have 752 +dmg when in my DPS gear, and FB base is 630-680. So, 630+680/2 = 655 base. 655+752=1407.
1407*(.95*(3/3.5))=1145. With Arcane Instability (+3%) and Piercing Ice (+6%), I get 1145*1.09=1248. So for a crit, I get 1248*2.25=2808. This would seem to support my theory that the bonuses are multiplicative, as I am very certain my crits do 3k+... however, I may have misapplied the formula Galzohar was kind enough to share. Can anybody double check me?

So I went back and checked, and my results showed that you all were correct. Ice Shards+Spell Power = +1.25 crit dmg bonus. Apparently my FB were hitting for slightly over 1.3k...

I am very sorry to have wasted folks time on that situation. I was ignorant, and had to learn the hard way.

I am now more able to comprehend the general avg dmg/spellcast formula, and I thank you for indulging me.

I have been trying to use said formula to manually compute values for avg dmg based on my stats for various specs to compare them... I have come across something else that boggles me. I am certain I am applying the formula wrong, as I am either computing an *average* result of more than 1000 dmg per tick of empowered arcane missles, or only 468 dmg per tick, depending on how I apply my +dmg. I was hoping to share my math, and have it refuted by someone more knowledgeable.

Here goes:

base damage of arc. missiles = 260/tick/cast
my base +spell dmg from gear = 690
Base Intellect = 528
Bonus Intellect from talents = 1.15(528) = 607 total intellect
Bonus +spell dmg from intellect = 1.25(607) = 151
Total +spell dmg = 841
base coefficient = 1/3.5 = .28
talent coefficient bonus = .45
sum of talent dmg bonuses = .03
crit chance = .255
crit coefficient = .75
base miss = .17
hit from gear = .0785
hit from talents = .10

So... using these numbers I was able to leave out spell resist due to level differential, as it seems at 99 spell hit from gear, my talents bring me all the way up to 100% spell hit.

(260 + 841(.28+.45)) * (1 + .03) * (1 + (.25*.75))

(260 + 841(.73)) * (1.03) * (1 + .1875)

(260 + 613.9) * (1.03) * (1.1875)

873.9 * 1.223125 = 1068.8889 average dmg/tick/cast

That cant possibly be right, so I was thinking maybe I should be dividing my total +spell dmg between each of the 5 ticks... that seems to make the math seem more like:

(260 + (613.9 / 5)) * 1.223125

(260 + 122.78) * 1.223125

382.78 * 1.223125 = 468.1877 avg dmg/tick/cast

This definitely seems more reasonable, but it also seems abysmally low to me... so low that Im doubting it can be correct.... Did I perhaps mess up the base coefficient?

I would very much appreciate any assistance.

As far as I know the empowered arcane missiles talent adds to the "over 5 seconds" coefficient. So +45% would actually be +9% per second. Or you could calculated the damage done over 5 seconds using 5/3.5 base coefficient (1/3.5 per second) and add the 45% coefficient to this (result will be the same).

Just for comparison with fireball scaling, fireball gets 1.13*1.15/3=0.433 coefficient/second, while empowered arcane missiles gets (1/3.5+0.09)*1.03=0.387 coefficient/second. This isn't even considering molten fury and gain from crits and +crit talents which make fireball scale even better. They start out with very similar mana efficiency and dps on a naked untalented character, it's the talents that make fireball scale that much faster and be more mana efficient. Heck AM even starts slightly ahead but then again the stats on wowhead I was looking at don't include the extra dmg spells get as you level up, since fireball is a lvl66 and AM is a lvl69 spell so at 70 fireball would've gained more over wowhead's stats. Not that any of this matters as all these minor differences are dwarfed by the massively better scaling of fireball which is significant even at lower levels of spell damage.

My guild is venturing into SSC/TK We have VR on farm, however, as a 2/48/11 Fire mage, I must admit i'm rather clueless about Arcane/Frost...Ive searched thru these posts for more than an hour now but can't find any answers post 2.3 and the MSD nerf.

With 2.3 and the nerf to MSD is Arcane still a viable spec for raiding? From what iv'e read Arcane performs better in SSC while Fire and Frost take the lead with buffs to thier spec. And Fire remains the best single target dps spec.

Guess my question is for SSC/TK content should I balance my mages spec between Fire/Arcane (I dont see alot posted about frost as a top dps spec)

And if so what spell rotation should arcane be using now? Straight up AM or AB/AM and how much of each?

You forgot to include level based resistance into this. According to WoWWiki, for a level 73 mob, that should be .031, so you need to multiply all that by (1 - .031) = .969. What I do not know, however, is if frostbolts are affected by that. I should be getting a miss rate of ~4%, but it's always under that (it feels closer to 1%, sometimes I get 0 misses, sometimes I get 1-2%... almost never above that).