First thread on EJ forums. I'd like to point out a couple of things before I continue. For one, I am not normally a theorycrafter. I generally do not like the concept of trying to predict what will be the best based on numbers alone. The second thing is, this is ALL a theory based on recent changes, itemization in 2.4, and the general new stats that have been introduced into the game, not numbers. And lastly, I will admit I am now a casual raider due to real life issues, so a good majority of this theory is based on what I've already experienced in raiding, and from what I notice regarding the changes.

The Sunwell items I'm referencing come from
http://static.mmo-champion.com/mmoc/...well_loots.jpg

The Theory
The +healing stat is going to be capped out soon, and regeneration is going to be the new focus for late TBC content, and perhaps into WoTLK. It's been pushed harder in TBC than in vanilla WoW, and it will soon become the primary reasoning to healing.

The Reason
If you don't feel like reading all of this, there's a TLDR version down a bit.


A bit of a history lesson here. We'll start out with early vanilla WoW, and I'll bring it all the way up until where I've experienced raiding. The rest of this may be up to other healers who've experienced raiding beyond the content I've been to.

When beginning raiding in WoW, healers were pretty much itemized very specifically. The stats to have were +healing, and Mp5. Intellect and Spirit were far behind secondaries, due to the fact that there were 40 raiders, usually 11-15 healers per raid, and in general it was mostly single tank damage per mob. There were some AoE damage fights, but nothing a simple strategy of organized healing could overcome. Potions were a necessity for the majority of "harder" progression bosses (Ragnaros, Executus, Razorgore early on, Nefarian etc). Flasks and elixirs were stacking, the average guild flasked up for any end-instance boss, etc. Downranking healing was extremely effective due to the lack of scaling prior to (Patch 1.7? Writing on the fly here), HoT's were unstackable ("Don't overwrite my ______"), etc.

We'll start with Molten Core. It was horribly itemized for the most part. Everyone knows that. The class-specific sets were usually minor upgrades to non-set items, bonuses were ridiculous, etc. The non-class specific items, however, had a specific focus. Mp5 and +healing. It was vastly noticable. Spirit was considered a "lulzy" stat, the people who stacked it were considered inferior healers.

With the release of BWL and ZG, we noticed the same pattern coming about. +Healing, Mp5, and enough spirit/intellect on items that hunting down the stat wasn't a worry. We saw the Rejuvinating Gem, a trinket that was probably ahead of it's time in term of itemization. Mp5 became a bigger focus, with Druids seeing alot more spirit coming from their class specific set. Fights up until Nefarian were usually short duration, focused on spike damage, and focused alot more on direct healing due to the fact that HoTs were unstackable. This trend continued for quite a while.

With the release of Ahn'Qiraj, we noticed a shift in the healers. Fights were a bit more gimmick and enduranced based. AQ20 saw encounters such as Ossirian and the Rajaxx encounter where endurance was key. Popping potions every two minutes was damn near required for survival on these fights. Items began to have spirit pushed a bit more, sometimes sacrificing +healing. Itemization was still horrible.

AQ40 saw even more of this. Gimick fights were common, but the change in healing styles was noticable. High spike damage from fights such as Twin Emps, C'thun, Princess, and depending on how intelligent your raid was, Sartura and the Bug Trio. Endurance fights such as C'thun and Twin Emps were the first of their kind, for the most part. Regeneration became a prime. Itemization (except the tier 2.5 sets) began to push a combination of stats. The average healing item for Druids/Priests contained Spirit, Intellect, Mp5, and +Healing cramed onto an item. Paladins saw Crit out the ass, +Healing. Shamans saw some mp5 and +Healing. Regeneration was being pushed.

Then, one of the biggest change to healers came. HoT's became stackable, downranking was nerfed.
The issue of this change was conservation was no longer easily obtainable through just downranking. Mp5 was pushed hard, +healing began to see a slight decrease, spirit became a focus for druids/priests.

Itemization in Naxxramas saw the same style of stat increments, focus on (in this order) Mp5 (Crit for Pallies), +Healing, Spirit (Priest/Druid only), Intellect. There WERE no more stats. Stamina came and went as gear got upgraded, it was pretty cookie-cutter.


Then TBC came out. Everything changed.

I'm going to skip some timelines here due to the shear amount of changes that came through.
Everyone saw talent changes. New stats were introduced. In short, druids saw Tree form, giving spirit a new existance. Paladins lost effectiveness for Crit. Paladins and Shamans became available to both factions. +Healing took to new levels, the average mid-raider seeing 1400-2000 healing bonus. Lifebloom was brought into the game. Prayer of Mending, Binding Heal, and some others brought new healing skills.

Itemization changed dramatically as well.
Around level 65, most epics from 60 were replaced. Items in TBC were loaded with +healing, mp5, and int. Spirit was abundant for druids and priests. Crit is still there for paladins, but not as much. Shamans, not much has changed.

Focusing in on +healing was *the* way to go. Mp5 came in as a close secondary, but the fights were a lot of damage all around the raid, 25 man raids were introduced, and it became essential to quickly raid patch (Magtheridon, Gruul, High King, Hydross, Voidreaver (early on)) or there'd be a chain reaction from deaths. With less people, there became a focus on keeping the entire raid up more. Losing 5-10 people pre-TBC meant it was just going to be a drawn out fight, but it was possible. Losing 5-10 people in TBC meant a wipe was imminent. HoTs became the staple heal for keeping MT's up. Spamming Flash of Light was a Paladins primary duty (for the most part), and Chain Heal became to best damn raid-patching heal in the game. Priests kinda did a combination duty.

TLDR Version Here
TLDR version: Healing changed dramatically. Itemization began focusing on +healing a ton with TBC release, regeneration became a prime focus, but with the introduction of viable Shadow Priests and Mana Tide/etc, regeneration from items was usually not as a massive influence. We saw the demise of a majority of downranking, the introduction of HoT stacking, and the massive beenfits of +healing.

End TLDR for history. Another at the end of the post.

And now, we flashforward to today. The new stats and general healing changes here.

Intensity and the Priest Equivilent got a boost.
Tree Druids and Priests use spirit effectively, but it isn't a primary stat (ToL Aura is an exception, but there's debate on that.) Spirit is nonexistant to shamans and paladins. (+crit to paladins, mp5/int to shamans.)
Priests focus more on +healing still, but mp5 is a close second. Shamans follow this general rule as well.
Tier Gear is itemized efficiently for stacking healing and keeping regen in check.

New Stats/Effects
Spell Haste: Now reduces global cooldown. We're seeing it itemized on healing gear a bit more (BT, Hyjal) and in Sunwell. Potentially makes Druids a completely HoT-based healer (due to itemization on end-game gear), allowing more effectiveness on rolling lifeblooms/etc. Paladins get to spam FoL and Heal easier. Priests gain all-around benefits. Shamans can mash out more heals. (This is ignoring current itemization, but merely theory.)

Sockets introduced in TBC allowed for the PLAYER to decide how they want to itemize themselves. +Healing stacking became common, as did a balance of Regen/+Healing.

Set Bonuses bonuses became very potent (for the most part).

And now, the biggest change recently: Intellect affecting spirit regen. Currently, regen has been pushed as a major aspect of healing, especially now for priests/druids being affected by spirit. Paladins have *many* ways to conserve mana outside of spirit regeneration. Currently, shamans are one of the only classes without any signifigant non-gear source of (improved) regeneration rates.

We're seeing a new style of item coming out as well. Going back to the Sunwell loot list, there's the channeled mana regeneration trinket. Why would such an item be introduced if with enough int/spirit regen/mp5 you could easily outpower it? Same with BT items. The Crystal Spire has the extra proc effect, something healers haven't had before.

Basically, I'm wondering/theorizing if the next wave of raiding is going to be long, drawn out boss encounters. With new ranks of spells coming out with WoTLK (confirmed), and odds are more "improvement" talents, why would we need a ton more regen? Either +healing is soon to be capped and we're going to start seeing a ton more raid-damaging fights (Gruul, Solarian, etc), or we're going to be entering a phase where spike damage (along with scaling stamina) is going to go through the roof.

TLDR Version
With HoTs currently able to outheal a majority of damage in game when stacked up with a paladin/shaman healer, will we start to see the end of massive +healing stacks, or just the beginning? Stamina has dictated how much +healing has come out in TBC. We all saw it. Bear tanks with 25k health, "last stand" trinkets, etc. TBC has been all about massive numbers (when relating to hp/damage/healing), but are we going to start to see the decline (or rather, the same) massive numbers we do now, but with a future on regeneration/etc? Will spellhaste become a new stat to be focused on for say, druids ("paladin with curse of tongues", jokingly reffered to by some)? Or will the same trends just continue on, with the number ever rising?


Why?
The reason I'm bringing this up is to just get a rough idea on other peoples thoughts on this change. I will crunch numbers down when PTR's are up on a druid and the amount of change with intensity/etc. I'd also like to hear some more outlook/opinions on whether or not +healing seems to be going to a cap-point due to regeneration becoming much more useful. Thoughts/suggestions/opinions/criticisms are highly welcome.

I don't understand your premise. If people are getting more mana regen from talents now and base gear why would a healer stack more mana regen on their gear? People have the regen with current gear plus mana pots and shadow priests to go forever in many cases. People are still limited by the GCD, spell haste changes not withstanding. Even moderate amounts of spell haste will not change the GCD to any large degree. Healing I don't think will be capped. People will have more health, bosses will hit for more, healing will need to scale to match it. If anything I just see people stacking healing gems in places as much as possible since mana pots are still so powerful.

I agree with Kasi. I don't see the relevance between the style of raid Blizzard creates encounter and the itemization Blizzard gives players. We have seen time and time again that it is the exception when an item makes ideal use of item budget, not the rule. My best stab at why Blizzard decided to change intellect is the same reason they changed agility in 2.0, they like to give players multiple options when making gear decisions. Also, from a game development standpoint it doesn't make sense that one of the classic RPG attributes should be far inferior to other stats, it is confusing to new players. In hindsight I now know that three years ago, while leveling my first character, a shadow priest, I picked up far more greens "of intellect" than what was advisable. I considered myself to be fairly analytical of my play style right from the start, and by the time I actually began to raid I had long since improved the methods with which I chose gear, less analytical players however, have and still do fall victim to the item budget trap that intellect is in its current state.