You're forgetting the gcd after the fireblast. With 0 haste, its 3 sec fireball + 1.5 sec scorch/fireblast + 1.5 sec gcd. Whether or not you can beat the fireball flight time with 0 haste i do not know.

For me with 275 haste, its 2.55 sec fireball, 1.3 sec scorch/fireblast, 1.3 sec gcd = 5.15 secs, so less then a second of waiting.

Critting every cast might be a threat issue anyways. Being able to simply stop casting and regen mana while reducing threat, then going right back to 100% crit might be a positive of hot streak.

Has anyone actually calculated out how close together two spells have to hit to both benefit from effects like shatter? It would probably have to be torn from a very accurate combat log as milliseconds but it might be possible to figure out. If we had a good idea of how close two things had to hit, and maybe how long it would take a fireball and even an ice lance to get to a target from different ranges, we could find how much haste is needed at different ranges to pull it off. I guess user latency would need to be a third variable, and that's no fun for anyone to try to include.

You're right it is feasible, for some reason I was remembering fire blast at an 8 seconds cooldown improved instead of 6 seconds.

Your dps routine on a boss fight would look something like this:

Step 1. Do your normal dps routine.
Step 2. Invis after 30-40s or when appropriate to the fight.
Step 3. Pop combustion, build it up, and get 2 crits.
Step 4. Fireball/Scorch/Fire Blast to proc HS.
Step 5. Pause 0-3 seconds based on haste
Step 6. If you're running low on mana, or topping out on threat let HS drop and restart.
Step 7. Goto Step 4.

or if pausing isn't desirable, and Ice Lance can benefit from HS in a Fireball/Scorch/Ice Lance combo

Step 5. Fireball/Scorch/Ice Lance

Am I wrong?

Update - Information we need:
How much haste is required to make Fireball/Scorch/Fire Blast HS combo possible?
Is a Fireball/Scorch/Ice Lance HS combo possible at any level of haste?

The problem with this test is you are assuming scorch will break the nova.

I think you're misunderstanding what I mean. I'm basically trying to see if shatter mechanics could work on two spells that hit at the same time when the first is an instant but the second is a very fast missile fired as the instant hits. I'm not trying to break the nova, I'm trying to hit with both spells while the target is still in the nova (after the scorch).

That will tell us if it is possible to use ice lance in the fireball/scorch/FB rotation (because it will crit after scorch just the same as the fire blast would if the test works).

Ok, I have your answer then. Yes, you can hit with two spells while a target is in nova. You can hit with as many spells as you'd like, and as long as they don't break the nova, timing has nothing to do with any of it.

Your test relies on that scorch breaks the nova and that ice lance get 3 times the damage anyway. If scorch doesn't break the nova ice lance will get the extra damage even if it hits "too" late because the nova will still be up.

edit: I did some tests. I saw multiple times on close range scorch break nova and ice lance hit as if the target was not frozen.

I think you're mistaken on the bolded part.
You also have to exclude that the first cast of the chain must not be part of another chain.
Cast1-Cast2-Cast3-Cast4-Cast5.
Cast5 is a Hot Streak crit if either Cast2 was a Hot Streak crit and Cast2/3 were both normal crits, or if Cast2/3/4 are normal crit and Cast1 was a ... normal hit I think, because otherwise Cast4 would have been a Hot Streak already.

I made a little chart, with m/n/o/p being the chance that the last 0/1/2/3 casts were crits.
You then draw little arrows to see how your chances are to go from which state to which.
0/1/2 have a (1-c) chance to go to 0 and a "c" chance to go to 1/2/3.
From 3, you always go to 1 if you spam fireball, or to two if you FB/FiBl on Hot Streak.

Take those relations and add m+n+o+p=100% and you can solve it.

In the case of Fireball spam, it's p = c^3/(1+c+c^3).
That means 1-p of your casts are normal fireballs and p of your casts are guaranteed crits.
You gain p*(1-c) crit chance.

If you do Fireball/FireBlast combos, p = c^3/(1+c^3).
That means 1-p of your casts are Fireballs and p of your casts are (FB+FiBl) crits. Damage depends on your Ignite buggyness.
You cannot really express that as added crit chance. You can approximate FireBlast as half a Fireball and add roughly 1.5*p*(1-c) crit chance.
For exactness, you should however compute the damage and castime of your combos.

It's quite possible that I made some mistake there, feel free to point when it contradicts sims.


For the FB-Sc-FiBl constant crit, you're essentially locked into a 6 second cycle, with Scorch scaling badly.
Compared to normal play at high gear, you gain ~12% DPS if you have no haste on gear - only WoA+Ret.

If you have 12% unavoidable haste on gear (like in Sunwell), you don't really have a gain from this.

Setup
Get a friendly neighborhood Mage to help you.
Just you get NAKED!
Pop Combustion, stack it up to 100% or as near as you can before the 3rd crit.
Have your friendly neighborhood Mage gather up 3 mobs for you.
You Frost Nova them, then Flamestrike them proc'ing HS, and your buddy Frost Nova's them.

Testing
With 0 Haste @ 26 yards:
Fireball->Scorch->Fire Blast - Did the Scorch and/or the Fire Blast crit?
Fireball->Scorch->Ice Lance - Did the Scorch and/or the Ice Lance crit?

With 20% Haste(Icy Veins) @ 26 yards:
Fireball->Scorch->Fire Blast - Did the Scorch and/or the Fire Blast crit?
Fireball->Scorch->Ice Lance - Did the Scorch and/or the Ice Lance crit?

Analysis
Was the Fireball->Scorch->Fire Blast HS combo possible @ 0% haste, how about 20%? Word on whether the Fireball->Scorch->Ice Lance HS Combo is possible?

Edit: Ah that's what I wanted to know:

Ah, ok I see what you were saying. That's a good point, but you can still use the test to find your answer with repetition. The rare case would be the ice lance NOT getting triple damage (which would show that the overall test fails), unless scorch (with fire talents to make the break more likely) would never break a nova, which I don't think is the case. It's definitely a pretty terrible test all around though, because if you never saw an ice lance not getting triple damage it could mean any number of things, like the nova possibly not breaking instantly.

edit: Ok Pallandor crapped on the ice lance parade

The dps is still potentially higher. Napkin math at current level:

Fireball crit for 5000 (ignite 2000 more) + scorch crit for 2500 (ignite 1000 more) + fireblast for 3000 (ignite 1200 more) = 10500 (ignite 4200 more)

10500/6 seconds = 1750 dps if you get no damage from ignite (who knows, its buggy)
14700/6 seconds = 2450 dps if you get full ignite bonus

Fireball spam for me = (3400 + 5000*.33) / 2.55 seconds = 1980 dps

If you get some of the ignite damage, the dps will be higher. You also get 30% of your spell cost back every cast. So even though haste doesnt really help, its still potentially better then straight fireball spam. I'm also not including burnout, which would make the hotstreak rotation even better.

I posted something about this in the Warlock thread a day or two ago, but I thought it'd be interesting here too as we debate the value per talent point of Hot Streak. Let's take a quick look at Empowered Imp.

Every time the Imp crits, the Warlock's next crittable spell also crits. So let's say the little guy has 5% base crit. With totem, boomkin and Frost Mage, he now has 23% chance to crit with his little Firebolts. If the Warlock's chance to crit is currently 35%, including these same buffs, the Imp increases his crit rate to:

1 - (0.65 * 0.77) = 49.95%

Let's be really pessimistic and say that due to the Imp's really fast casting speed, you're going to miss 1 out of 3 of these bonus crits because you fail to use one before you get another proc. That's still better than 13% crit for 3 talent points...plus, of course, the +15% on the Imp's own DPS.

I very much do not expect it to stay this way, but still...pretty amusing when compared with Brain Freeze, Hot Streak and Netherwind Presence.

http://talent.mmo-champion.com/?mage...50320122000000

Anyone tried some DPS calculations with a build similar to this? Trispecc with heavy Arcane with Arcane Flows and IV + Ignite.
Didn't know where to put a few points so got some utility but well I think you know where this is supposed to head.

Edit: http://talent.mmo-champion.com/?mage...50320122000000

Another version with Imp Scorch and MoE loosing Cold Snap and Frost Channeling.

Living Bomb is now a targeted spell: "The target becomes a living bomb, taking 612 Fire damage over 12 sec. After 12 sec or when the spell is dispelled, the target explodes dealing 336 to 337 Fire damage to all enemies within 10 yards and knocking all targets up in the air. Only one target may be affected by this spell at a time."

Living Bomb changed
Arcane Shielding increased
Torment of the Weak
Incanter's Absorption moved
Missile Barrage switched w/Netherwind Presence
Spell Power moved to Tier 10
Burnout increased to 50%
Frozen Core still friggin' unchanged
Imp. Water Elemental now restores mana rather than health (1/2/3% per 5 secs)

Depending on Coefficient, Living Bomb may now be a viable DPS-increasing DOT vs. raid bosses.

Arcane Shielding means you now lose 1.4 mana per point of damage absorbed.

Torment of the Weak makes little sense. 3% increased damage to slowed targets for 3 points, but you can get it long before Slow. Does it mean generic "slow" as in snared?

Incanter's Absorption, Missile Barrage, Spell Power shuffle better reflects the value of both Incanter's Absorption and Spell Power, I think, and is a big part of fixing Fire -- Spell Power is now well out of reach of a build that includes Empowered Fireball.

Missile Barrage is now a tier lower than one might expect given its power, but if you're that deep you're going all the way to the top anyway, I guess.

Burnout doubled in effect. As we discussed upthread, that's not enough to save Fire. We need to find out more about the new Living Bomb and see if it helps fill the rest of the gap.

Improved Water Elemental is now infinitely more suitable: the mana regen is not only more useful to the raid, but it also effectively increases the Water Elemental's casting endurance by 36%, better than matching the 33% increase in duration.

Definite progress.

New talent trees
WorldofWarcraft.com -> Info -> Classes -> Mage -> Talent Calculator

Spell Power moved way up (to not allow fire specs to get it)
Burnout is 50% now (same as spell power)
Living Bomb is usable. (targettable + knockup)
Torment of the weak (+3% dmg done to slowed targets)

Hope it goes live the next days to find out the coefficients.

Epic Fail

Seed of Corruption Rank 3
1525 Mana 30 yd range
2 sec cast
Imbeds a demon seed in the enemy target, causing 1518 Shadow damage over 18 sec. When the target takes 1518 total damage or dies, the seed will inflict 1633 to 1897 Shadow damage to all other enemies within 15 yards of the target. Only one Corruption spell per Warlock can be active on any one target.

vs

Living Bomb Rank 3
980 Mana
1130 damage over 12 secs, 759 fire damage upon explosion
The spell can only affect one target at a time


1518 shadow damage over 18 secs, can be detonated almost instantly with a 1897 explosion on multiple targets

vs

1130 damage of 12 secs, cannot be detonated instantly (have to wait out the 12 secs), with a 759 explosion and can only be used on one target.

Sure...kings of aoe.
No thanks, the spell is faaaar from usable.


EDIT:
The change to spellpower is a complete insult. Instead of fixing the fire tree so that player would NOT want to get spellpower and instead get some other GOOD fire talent. They nerf the living daylights out of the 40/0/21 spec. Preposterous.
I really am very disgusted with what i'm looking at

That doesn't seem right. Let's suppose the imp's spells have the same cast time that you do with the stats as above. Then, the chance that the imp's spell converts a non-crit to a crit is 0.65 * 0.23 = 14.95%.

Now, let's say the imp has a spell that casts 33% faster than your warlock's main nuke... let's say a 1.5s cast for the imp versus a 2.25s cast for the warlock. Hypothetically speaking.

Then, two in three spells have one chance for the imp to change a non-crit to a crit. One in three spells have two chances for the imp to convert a non-crit to a crit, so the total chance that the imp converts a non-crit to a crit is:

2/3 * .65 * .23 + 1/3 * 0.65 * (1 - 0.77^2) = 18.79%

What we get from this is that Emp. Imp scales negatively with Haste rating as well as with Crit rating. The faster your spells are relative to the imp's, the less gain you get from Emp. Imp. Also, with normal application of haste buffs, including Backdraft, it probably will still end up giving more than 5% crit per point in Emp. Imp. You'd need sufficient haste uptime to lower your average spellcast to below the imp's spellcast to get significantly less than 5% crit per point.

You can cast living bomb and AE/BW/DB like hell at the same time... don't compare the two spells directly.

How much aoe dps is lost from other raid members while the living bomb targets are "knocked up in the air"? With an effective 12 second cooldown, it doesn't seem the dps of the spell itself will have much impact on your total AoE damage. If the flying targets are not available for aoe from other raid members for even a short period of time, I cannot imagine the talent in this form having any value in raids.

Burnout becoming 50% makes the talent itself acceptable, but i don't see how it makes single target fire dps competitive.

You PVP guys realise that ice lance can now proc impact ?