Talent spec estimates, round two
So, I've been polishing my calculations, fixed some things, and added cooldowns as flast multipliers.
I basically looked what kind of an increase a certain combination of cooldown talents in a certain spec was in Rawr.
That included one heroism and two clicky trinkets, and I obviously did some manual adjustment to account for new talents.
Most specs see a 4-10% increase from cooldown talents, so the error margin should be 1-2% at most for cooldowns.
Raid debuffs/buffs
I assumed Misery and 13% CoE as raid buffs and disregarded partial resists. They don't actually matter as they affect all specs the same way.
I did not assume
Frozen Rune Weapon - World of Warcraft either for now. It's an 11-point talent in the frost tree, the tanking tree, and frost damage seems near irrelevant for DPS specs (1-2% of total damage is frost). Tanks will probably have it, but they claim it's not too exciting for them. With the windfury change, the imbue would only compete with a sharpening stone and not windfury.
It's probably worth it for 1 Death Knight to respecc into it if you have at least 2 mages. That's pretty dumb design though, to rely on a buff from a talent of another class that they wouldn't take otherwise.
Whatever, add +10% to Frost/Frostfire damage if you think it'll be up permanently on boss fights that matter.
Winter's Chill and Winter's grasp can prove useful for Death Knight tanks, but have very little impact on DPS specs right now. The whole class is under constant retuning, so it can change every day.
I did assume Earth and Moon, the 6% Arcane/Nature debuff from a Balance Druid in the raid, they look desirable enough.
The values without Earth and Moon are added as well.
Winter's Chill/Fire Vulnerability are up if the spec has it.
I did assume a CSD Meta and Elemental Oath (Shaman in the group) to determine crit damage.
I didn't consider (Improved) Moonkin Aura, since that's a mess to model and the Moonkin might be in another group.
I disregarded Mana for now. Many raid mana abilities were cahnged and probably see more tuning, we have no idea what it'll finally look like. I'd expect everything (barring Arcane Blast spam) to turn out sustainable. I used everything with Molten Armour for equal grounds.
As for buffs, Wrath of Air is 10% spell haste, Retribution Aura is 3% haste, 2% damage, Totem of Wrath is 3% crit and 3% hit, Judgements add 3% crit, Faerie Fire adds 3% hit. Flametongue and consumables are rolled into "buffed spell power".
I assumed 50ms cast dealy, which is the standard setting for Rawr.
I assumed 350ms cast delay for the Water Elemental, which is quite generous I think. Seems to be more like 500ms from what I saw in raids.
The gear setup
A haste-heavy get of Sunwell gear has 1.6k spell power raid buffed. We expect a blue set to be half a tier above that in power. Add new gems, enchants, consumables, and 1.8k spell power seems a conservative estimate.
With some unavoidable intellect, 13% crit from base, intellect and crit rating sounds conservative to start with.
Assuming 5% haste from gear, and hit capped. 800 intellect with AB/MotW, without BoK.
That was the first set of gear.
The second set assumes 2.6k spell power, 20% crit, 15% haste.
For Arcane Blast spam with 2T5, I removed 80 intellect and spell damage from the first gear set, 130 from the second.
The specs, spells and numbers
Listed values are always damage per cast time. The first value is for the lower gear, the second one for the higher gear.
We don't have a base value for Waterbolt, I took 750 as a guess.
Arcane Specs with 51-53 in Arcane. I didn't include Icy Veins at all because it will mess with Cycle. Add it as 2.5%-3% DPS over time if you can fit it in the spec.
Arcane Barrage : 3973 / 5792 (Damage per Cast Time)
Arcane Missiles : 2479 / 3688 (Without Missile Barrage)
Arcane Blast : 3490 / 4955 (Spammed at 3 stacks)
Arcane Blast 2T5 : 4198 / 5946 (Spammed at 3 stacks)
Frostbolt : 2494 / 3778
Fireball : 2856 / 4350
Frostfire Bolt 53/10/10 : 2448 / 3810 (Overestimating with 2 points too many in Arcane)
Frostfire Bolt 53/0/18 : 2119 / 3237
Barrage rotations are simplified with 1 Missile Barrage every 7 casts.
They are modeled as (ABar-X)3-ABar-AM-Y, X as generic filler, Y as Fire Blast to cover the gap due to haste.
Fire off-specs use Y for Scorch to keep up the debuff. If Scorch is about to run out and MB doesn't proc, 1 Fireball can be replaced by Fire Blast + Scorch with nearly the same damage.
ABar-FrB : 3045 /4390 (It runs into the haste cap with higher gear)
ABar-FB 3234 / 4839
(ABar-FrB)3-ABar-AM-FiBl : 3570 / 5140
(ABar-FB)3-ABar-AM-Sc : 3635 / 5423
(ABar-FFB)3-ABar-AM-FiBl : 3485 / 5221 (As 53/10/10, see comment above)
Without the Earth and Moon debuff, Barrage roations lose around 3% damage and scale down to:
(ABar-FB)3-ABar-AM-Sc : 3521 / 5255
Frost Specs can get 13 Arcane when omitting PvP/control talents.
Percentage values are Winter's Grasp uptime, calculated from the listed amount of mages.
The Water Elemental has up to 50% uptime in a 6 minute fight, so half of it's listed DPS should be the sustained value. Assuming that it actually survives, best case.
Ice Lance spam is given for mobility fights.
Waterbolt: 758 (379) / 894 (447) (Pet scaling is bad)
Frostbolt (lower gear) : 2468 (0%), 2702 (1 mage, 22%), 2884 (2 mages, 39%), 3026 (3 mages, 53%), 3521 (100%) /
Frostbolt (higher gear) : / 3713 (0%), 4074 (1 mage, 22%), 4349 (2 mages, 39%), 4556 (3 mages, 53%), 5205 (100%)
Even with 10 mages, you'd only have 90% uptime at with low gear, 93% with high gear.
Ice Lance (lower gear) : 849 (0%), 1725 (1 mage, 34%), 2313 (2 mages, 56%), 2714 (3 mages, 71%), 3488 (100%)
Ice Lance (higher gear) : / 1166 (0%), 2488 (1 mage, 36%), 3341 (2 mages, 58%), 3893 (3 mages, 73%), 4890 (100%) /
The value at 100% is the value for tossing an Ice Lance on a fading Winter's Grasp debuff. It seems worth doing for frost specs.
With 10 mages spamming Ice Lance, you'd have 98% / 99% uptime of Winter's Grasp.
Fire Specs go 51+ fire and pick Icy Veins, rest utility. I think you can go 0/50/21, adds ~1% for CS'ed IV.
Hot Streak is modeled of your crit rate.
I didn't model any Hot Streak + Combustion interaction. I'm not even sure what the best way to use Combustion is when you have Hot Streak. It depends on Ignite bugging, cast count and crit count issues.
The value in brackets is the chance that Ignite bugs on a Fireball + Fire Blast double crit.
Spell casting without Hot Streak:
Fireball : 2978 / 4543
Fire Blast : 3516 / 4903
FB3-FiBl : 3056 (0%), 3037 (50%), 3018 (100%) / 4595 (0%), 4557 (50%), 4519 (100%)
Spell casting with Hot Streak (first part is the spammed spell, second the cast on the 100% crit buff):
(FB3-FiBl)+(FBFiBl): 3120 (0%), 3081 (50%), 3042 (100%) / 4759 (0%), 4674 (50%), 4588 (100%)
(FB)+(FBFiBl) : 3086 (0%), 3068 (50%), 3050 (100%) / 4769 (0%), 4725 (50%), 4680 (100%)
That means the Hot Streak adds 64 (0%), 44 (50%), 32 (100%) / 174 (0%), 168 (50%), 137 (100%) DPS on average.
An Arcane/Fire spec like 33/38/0 performs as follows:
Fireball : 3281 / 5012
Fire Blast : 4102 / 5740
FB3-FiBl : 3400 (0%), 3372 (50%), 3344 (100%) / 5118 (0%), 5063 (50%), 5008 (100%)
Frostfire Bolt specs should use frost and fire talents. Who would have guessed!
I'm using 0/34/37 as standard spec since Water Elemental damage looks quite bad.
You'd have to drop 1% crit, Combustion and Molten fury for an unimproved Elemental, which looks like a sidegrade and more headache.
Those are the conservative values. Add 13% if you want FFB to double-dip from CoE, and another 10% if you want to have a laugh with Frost Vulnerability.
Frostfire Bolt (lower gear) : 3182 (0%), 3532 (1 mage, 19%), 3817 (2 mages, 34%), 4046 (3 mages, 47%), 5026 (100%) /
Frostfire Bolt (higher gear) : / 4888 (0%), 5423 (1 mage, 20%), 5858 (2 mages, 36%), 6186 (3 mages, 49%), 7499 (100%)
Frostfire Bolt with double CoE, Frost Vulnerability and 100% Winter's Grasp : 6246 / 9321
With 10 mages, you would reach 87% / 89% Winter's Grasp uptime.
Frostfire Bolt without Ignite (lower gear) : 2328 (0%), 2514 (1 mage, 19%), 2664 (2 mages, 34%), 2787 (3 mages, 47%), 3305 (100%) /
Frostfire Bolt without Ignite (higher gear) : / 3500 (0%), 3783 (1 mage, 20%), 4008 (2 mages, 36%), 4188 (3 mages, 49%), 5148 (100%)
I figured I'd add the oh-so-great 34/23/14 style specs if Winter's Grasp gets scrapped, which can't bring their own Winter's Chill, and compare with 0/37/34:
Frostfire Bolt : 2822 (no WC), 3200 (WC from another mage) / 4405 (no WC), 4939 (WC from another mage)
Frostfire Bolt 0/37/34 : 3256 / 4993
Conclusions for now
Arcane Barrage does what Arcane Blast was supposed to do:
Provide high DPS, but requires rotation with other spellls.
Barrage rotations provide the highest baseline sustainable DPS, they are even above normal Arcane Blast spam and only beaten by Blast spam with 2T5, which is probably not sustainable.
Frostbolts before WG are at ~2/3 of the power of Barrage rotations. With 3 mages and pet use, you get to ~90% of Barrage rotations.
With 10 mages, you reach ~90% WG uptime. Even if you could reach 100% uptime and your pet never died, you'd only be at most 5% above Barrage.
Seeing that you need absurd stacking in order to simply break even with Barrage, Winter's Grasp looks very balanced in conjunction with Frostbolts.
Pet scaling is pretty mediocre, for a lack of euphemisms.
Ice Lance spam in mobile fights on the other hand seems very powerful if you have ~3 mages.
Fire talents simply lack power. Hot Streak is a very cool idea, but it needs some retuning becausee it adds negligible damage. Burnout's issues have been named as well. And juggling around Ignite bugs and Combustion issues doesn't make it any easier.
Being stuck in BC mode, Fire is ~15% behind Barrage. Arcane/Fire specs peform a bit better, they are ~10% behind Barrage.
Elemental Frostfire Bolt specs are broken and overtuned beyond hope, that's nothing new.
But it's not just the fault of Winter's Grasp. Even without Grasp/Shatter in 0/37/34, one-button-FFB-spam is very competitive.
With Winter's Grasp, even if it was changes to only affect the original caster, Frostfire Bolt competes with Barrage Rotations and outscales them.
Arcane variations like 34/23/14 are strictly inferior for FFB.
The major issue that unbalances Frostfire is the powerful crit scaling with Ice Shards and Ignite, two easily reachable powerful talents that are not additive but multiplicative. Winter's Grasp then amplifies exactly that scaling by increasing the amounts of crits you can attain.
If Ignite wouldn't work with Frostfire Bolt, it would be pretty much in line with Frostbolt and quite balanced.
Yes, that means with Winter's Grasp.
One thing that is pretty awkward is
Frozen Rune Weapon - World of Warcraft. It's an outside debuff that isn't really appealing to Death Knights and yet yes to be considered by us.
If it was made either useful and attractive for all Death Knight specs, or changed into something else like a self buff for tanking, it would be easier to balance around.
Disclaimer
The numbers given are not to estimate what our DPS will be, they are give to estimate how our different specs and talents compare with each other.
Because spec performance will largely depend on gear, I have given two gear guesses for low-end and high-end gear.
Their purpose is to give a comparison and find out if a certain spec performs well due to scaling or due to base values.
Comparing their relative performance on two levels of gear helps finding those scaling differences.
[Edit]: Fixed wrongly scaled FFB values.