Gumibear

Haste is still better than crit for us. (You'd never argue Bane is bad for SB because it makes us life tap more, right?) 25% just seems to come with the stats we actually care about, and it's the number that most believe is the magic number to be at for ISB (I don't believe in this since 25% doesn't mean you always crit every 4 bolts). Even before my Sunwell gear, I had about 28% crit after devastation in gear that focused on spell damage and spell haste, with no crit from gems other than the 12 on my CSD.

25% looks like a good, if conservative, place to start for people going into Sunwell. I'd expect a drop off as we move toward 80. If crit that's not from talents loses about 40% of its effectiveness as it did from 60 to 70, I'd expect our crit rates to hit about 18% before we start getting new raid gear.

 

Nota

I'm actually thinking of haste's effect on it in comparison to fireball or frostbolt. In the case that you spec for barrage it becomes your new primary nuke that you will be weaving in spells to make up for the time waiting on its cooldown. Arcane isn't exactly well known for it's impressive dps/dpm scaling and this will probably be made more noticeable through the use of this spell. In the case of frostbolt you won't lose any time while not casting but you will be losing casts on barrage. Now it's to your advantage to do this because you end up causing more damage by weaving in the frostbolt than you do losing the cast of barrage.

In the case of AB I don't think that'll be feasible since AB costs 355 base at rank 4. The change to VT, the scaling of int, and not knowing whether or not druids will need their innervates back makes me want to be cautious about whether this rotation is even possible to keep up. Besides, frostbolt would probably work out better anyways due to ice shards and a higher coefficient than AB.

In the case of fireball, frostbolt, or ffb I still think barrage would fall behind those due to them having better multipliers deeper in their trees. Its only 2 advantages that I see it having over the other 3 main nuke builds is that it gives arcane mobility, may become important since we don't know about future encounters, and that it doesn't open up the arcane school to lockout which is something that arcane has needed for a very long time. I don't see netherwind presence really helping either since AB can already be done in the window given as long as you have it stacked already and it would still be weaker than using a frostbolt anyways. Frostbolt would work since you're probably specced for ice shards and piercing ice and it will help you pick up on the barrage that you would've missed but it's not likely to make any significant difference.

The main thing about haste in the other builds is that you can chain cast your primary nuke and the cast times become shorter with haste while it's your secondary nuke that becomes shorter with haste when specced for barrage. We'll have to see how it plays out but I don't currently see it being all that great for raiding. As for pvp, that's a whole other matter we'll have to wait and see since mobility is massive in a pvp environment and the addition of an instant main nuke might turn mages to speccing deep arcane for 2v2 and 3v3.

 

Althor

According to reports from the alpha (and thus it's of course subject to change etc) the effectiveness of +spellhit (now of course +hit) has gone down around 30% from 70 to 75. i.e. the cost of 1% of spellhit has risen from 12.62 at level 70 to 17.58 at level 75 (40% increase). There's still another 5 levels to go.

With these sort of numbers (assuming Blizzard don't adjust the scaling of them before Wrath hits) then we're possibly looking at one of the following scenarios:
1) ilvls of level 80 gear are high compared to TBC gear so that WotLK gear can still maintain equivalent amounts of +% stats but pay for it by lacking in other stats so things still meet the budget.
2) ilvls of level 80 gear are not overly high compared to TBC gear and normal stats (and linears values like +dmg) improve but you'd barely have any +crit%, +haste% or +hit%.
3) ilvls of level 80 gear are *very* high compared to TBC gear so that WotLK gear can maintain equivalent amounts of +% stats as seen in TBC and still retain the same sort of balance of stats as seen in TBC (but maybe with more +spi seen?).

If it's the third option then expect to see ilvls of around 270 for T7 gear and stam,int,spi,+dmg etc all being increased by a factor of 2.3 or so while the % values of +hit, +haste and +crit remain steady.

If it's the second option....prepare to live with low levels of +hit%, crit% and haste%

Again, it's alpha. All subject to change.

 

Deedre

Two points to consider with regards to AM as a filler spell for ABar:

1. You're not required to complete a full AM cast. Hit your stopcast ABar macro whenever the cooldown is up. This is admittedly rather expensive in terms of mana.

2. At very high levels of haste AM is going to be near 3s cast time. If such haste sounds unlikely to occur frequently in practice, let's not forget our new Boomkin friends. (Yes, I'm obssesive on this subject, sue me.)

These other spells mentioned as filler just seem rather awkward to me and from a design elegance perspective, I'd much prefer to see arcane match with arcane, excepting NP procs.

 

Nota

You wouldn't want to weave AM into a barrage rotation for 2 reasons. You mentioned the first being the mana cost the second is the channel time. I'll use 20% haste from gear for this since most endgame mages have at least that much. With 20% haste that would make the GCD 1.25 seconds. This gives a 1.75 second window in which you can cast another spell. The goal is to get as close to 1.75 seconds as possible so as not to waste time before your next barrage cast. For this frostbolt would be ideal because it has a cast time of 2.083 at this point. With the use of improved moonkin aura it's the spell that gets closest to 1.75 seconds. AB could be used as well if you cast 2 of them and are capable of sustaining the mana cost but I really doubt that as a possibility.

You'll never really see arcane match up with arcane very well since the tree is pretty clunky.

 

Deedre

The problem with these other spells is that NP is largely wasted on them, whereas AM possibly gets more mileage out of it. (Still unconfirmed, alas.) I can't see NP ever being worthwhile with frostbolt as a filler.

I'm really wondering if it's worth going all the way down the tree just for arcane barrage, at least for pve, since neither AB nor AM come into play in these mixed school rotations.

 

Nota

Even with an AM rotation NwP seems more like a gimmick for speccing that far down than as something that's really beneficial. The arcane tree just doesn't seem to have anything going for it past mind mastery and even then I'm not so sure. AP/SP might actually be the last good talents come WotLK. We're still in alpha so we'll have to probably wait till beta before any real changes to the tree but it's not looking to hot right now.

 

Lileith

But wouldn't that be way too strong for pvp?

 

Pintofbrew

It's hard to evaluate PvP. The roles/mechanics change almost weekly; even if it is a load of damage output, it's horribly expensive and mandates at least 51 arcane. Short of Incanter's Absorption and Prismatic Cloak there's nothing in the Arcane tree that's particularly good for PvP. There is of course Magic Abs, but that'll be the staple 10 (or even 11, or 13) arcane points for every build come 3.0. Also maintain, an arcane mage will want to spend as little time as possible channeling/casting arcane spells to keep themselves from being locked out. With a little haste and poly down to 1.3-1.4sec it's relatively safe to use often, but risking an AM is just asking to have your whole school locked out. Chucking a hefty though expensive ABarr every so often doesn't seem too hard-core.

 

Nota

Not necessarily. Arcane doesn't have anything below AP and SP that would make it desirable for pvp except for maybe this spell and in order to get this you would have to give up cold snap or blastwave. Giving up cold snap is fine since most mages who spec deeper than 17 into arcane for pvp end up going arc/fire anyways. Giving up blastwave on the other hand could be a problem, especially since barrage isn't much stronger than scorch in arc/fire when it comes to pvp. As I said though, we'll have to wait to see how this plays out because the mobility is massive in pvp but I don't think it's anywhere near overpowered.

 

Morganoth

Sorry to bump this, but it seems to have been skipped during the druid/CC debate. If anyone thinks this has merit I'd like to flesh it out further, but if the consensus is that it isn't feasible then it can be dropped. With mages agreeing that the Arcane tree has little pvp viability, and that there hasn't been too many spells to get excited about so far in alpha, I thought this might rectify those problems.

 

Lhivera

Well, we already know that we'd have killed for a spell like this in TBC. Loss of DPS during high-mobility encounters was one of our biggest complaints. It's not a question of this becoming important, it's just a question of it remaining important.

Fireball is still going to be your highest damage instant with an NP proc, I think, even when completely untalented. I'll need to work out the numbers for Frostbolt vs. Fireball on an instant cast with a 51/0/20 build to be sure, but the math I've done up to this point says you use Fireball, and it provides both a DPS and a DPM increase to your rotation, simply because you're effectively casting it with 133% haste.

Don't think of it that way -- think of it as making your rotation shorter. If you're casting 1x Arcane Barrage, 1x Frostbolt with 10% haste, the total time for the rotation is going to be (1.5 + 2.5) / 1.1 ~= 3.64 seconds. In fact, you're getting more benefit out of haste than a Frost mage does, since about 10% of his damage output is entirely unaffected by haste.

 

Niv

Yes, hopefully it will be the same as TBC in that regards. With Vampiric Touch being nerfed, I'm hoping that Brilliance Aura will be our new arcane spell. Seems like they're spreading out some of the support roles in WoTLK. Mages being able to bolster mana regen for their group, in place of a shadow priest, wouldn't be too far fetched.

 

Deltrus

That would be leet

 

Nota

I'll give you that, many mages including myself would've loved a mobile nuke that we could regularly use. Granted I'd rather have it as part of the fire tree but it's still nice that it gives mobility.

This part on the other hand is something I see differently on. I won't disagree that on a pure nuke basis that fireball is stronger than frostbolt. It gets about 19% more from spell damage than frostbolt does. The thing I'm looking at differently though is that many raids will still have a frost mage and that will give winter's chill and winter's grasp. With improved moonkin aura, shatter, ice shards, and piercing ice I can easily see a frostbolt outperforming a fireball when both can be cast instantly.

After doing some rough math on this I've already decided to change my stance on that rotation.

 

Deedre

Crazy thought: is it viable to go with pure instant casts as fillers for arcane barrage in a rotation? Fireblast, maybe even icelance if WG is in play. I mean in pve, not pvp.

 

Nota

You can use ice lance if WG is up. In fact you should unless you know you can get off a shatter combo before WG goes away. As for fireblast I wouldn't recommend it once spell haste starts to factor in. As I stated the idea is to be as close to 3 seconds as possible and about 33% spell haste is the sweet spot for the rotation. I don't think that number can be obtained through gear alone without giving up other key stats though. The closer you get to it the more frostbolt becomes a better spell to cast than fire blast. If you have 10%, you really should start to switch to frostbolt and ignore fireblast altogether if possible.

 

Lhivera

OK, here's what I've got for Arcane now, again using my estimates of +2000 spell damage (including arcane talents) and 25% crit (before talents). Bear in mind this is just a straight infinite-mana calc. Vontre's calculator is going to produce more accurate results for actual fights, but this'll show where the individual numbers on spellcasts are coming from. I'm assuming a deep Arcane build with Piercing Ice, Ice Shards, and Icy Veins here. The regen rates are a wild guess based on the level-by-level changes of the regen coefficient I pasted upthread somewhere.


ARCANE STUFF

Target debuffs (arcane): 1.1 (CoS) * 1.06 * (Nature's Fury) * 1.05 (Misery) * 0.949 (partial resists) = 1.1618607
Target debuffs (fire): 1.15 (Imp Scorch) * 1.1 (CoE) * 1.05 (Misery) * 0.949 (Partial Resists) = 1.26050925
Target debuffs (frost): 1.1 (CoE) * 1.05 (Misery) = 1.155
Casting mod (all schools): 1.03 (Arc Instability)
Casting mod (frost): 1.03 (Arc Instability) * 1.06 (Piercing Ice) = 1.0918
Mod for all Arcane spells: 1.1618607 (target) * 1.03 (cast) = 1.196716521
Mod for all Fire spells: 1.26050925 (target) * 1.03 (cast) = 1.2983245275
Mod for all Frost spells: 1.155 (target) * 1.0918 = 1.261029
Crit: 25% (base) + 1% (arc mind) + 3% (arc instability) + 3% (arc potency) + 3% (potent spi) = 35%
Crit Multiplier: 1 + 0.35 * 0.75 = 1.2625
Regen: (0.001 + sqrt(845) * 550 * 0.007910) * 0.6 = 75.88/sec while casting


Arcane Barrage
Base dmg: (936 + 1144) / 2 = 1040
Gear dmg: round(3.0 / 3.5 * 2000) = 1714
Avg dmg: (1040 + 1714) * 0.99 * 1.2625 * 1.196716521 = 4119.28
Avg mana: round(610 * 0.97) * 0.9 - 1.5 * 75.88 = 414.12
DPS: 4119.28 / 3.0 = 1373.09
DPSCT: 4119.28 / 1.5 = 2746.19
DPM: 4119.28 / 414.12 = 9.95

Arcane Blast
Crit: 35% + 6% (arc impact) = 41%
Crit Multiplier: 1 + 0.41 * 0.75 = 1.3075
Base dmg: (912 + 1058) / 2 = 985
Gear dmg: round(2.5 / 3.5 * 2000) = 1429
Avg dmg: (985 + 1429) * 0.99 * 1.3075 * 1.196716521 = 3739.43
Avg mana: round(1088 * 0.97) * 0.9 - 1.5 * 75.88 = 835.68
DPS: 3739.43 / 1.5 = 2492.95
DPM: 3739.43 / 835.68 = 4.47

Arcane Missiles
Base dmg: 1800
Gear dmg: round(5.0 / 3.5 * 2000) = 2857
Avg dmg: (1800 + 2857) * 0.99 * 1.2625 * 1.196716521 = 6965.69
Avg mana: round(1135 * 1.06 * 0.97) * 0.9 - 5 * 75.88 = 670.9
DPS: 6965.69 / 5.0 = 1393.14
DPM: 6965.69 / 670.9 = 10.38

Fireball (on Netherwind Focus proc)
Base dmg: (888 + 1144) / 2 = 1010 (+116 DOT)
Gear dmg: 2000
Avg dmg: ((1010 + 2000) * 0.99 * 1.2625 * 1.03 (cast mod)) + 116) * 1.26050925 (target fire mod) = 5030.68
Avg mana: 655 * 0.9 - 1.5 * 75.88 = 475.68
DPSCT: 5030.68 / 1.5 = 3353.79
DPM: 5030.68 / 475.68 = 10.58

Frostbolt
Crit mod: 1 + 0.35 * 1.25 = 1.4375
Base dmg: (799 + 861) / 2 = 830
Gear dmg: round(3 / 3.5 * 0.95 * 2000) = 1629
Avg dmg: (830 + 1629) * 0.99 * 1.4375 * 1.261029 = 4412.93
Mana: round(505 * 0.8245) * 0.9 - 2.5 * 75.88 = 184.7
DPS: 4412.93 / 2.5 = 1765.17
DPM: 4412.93 / 184.7 = 23.89

Rotation: 1x Arcane Barrage, 1x Frostbolt, 0.3859x Fireball
Arcane Power: 10.71% uptime * 30% increase = 1.03213 multiplier
Icy Veins: 14.29% uptime * 20% haste = 1.02858 haste divisor
Total dmg: (4119.28 + 4412.93 + 0.3859 * 5030.68) * 1.03213 = 10810.07
Total time: (1.5 + 2.5 + 0.3859 * 1.5) / 1.02858 = 4.46 seconds
Total mana: (532.8 + 374.4 + 0.3859 * 589.5) * 1.03213 - 4.46 * 75.88 = 832.72
DPS: 10810.07 / 4.46 = 2423.78
DPM: 10810.07 / 832.72 = 12.98

 

Deedre

.3859 Fireball? Is that a TC way of saying one NP every 5-6 casts or so?

 

Nota

Has it been released what the frost vulnerability debuff does?

 

Lhivera

Yes.

Not so far as I know.

 

◊ Vontre

Oh and if I didn't mention, NP only works on the initial AM cast, not individual missiles.

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Deedre

Well that kills AM for good. And probably arcane pve along with it, unless you want to bring along one arcane mage for utility purposes. (Imp amp magic in particular.) I just cannot see going deep into arcane from a pure dps standpoint solely for arcane barrage.

 

MyrddinE

I saw this problem too, but here's what I suspect the answer is: we're going to have a notably higher int/spirit, and that will bleed over into our pets. So at level 80, moderately geared, I suspect our WE will never run OOM... perhaps when fully buffed with 2/3 increased duration, it will run out near the end. That's why I suspect it's balanced the way it is.

 

Lhivera

I'm frankly not sure how you can be seeing it that way. Barrage/Frostbolt rotation appears to be quite competitive DPS with only slightly lower efficiency and the advantage of higher mobility. The way it looks to me, you'll be able to spec deep into any tree and come out on top in some fights, but not all.