Is melee hit cap really 9%? - Page 2

Xerophyte · 12/03/08, 8:29 PM

Originally Posted by frmorrison

With 0 hit and normal Ret raiding spec, with max weapon skill and 0 hit rating after 2000 attacks I had a 6.5% miss rate.

Since other classes are seeing ghost hit like Shadow Priests, the only way I can make sense is the hit cap is lower and/or hidden hit is being banked into talents.

With that data set you have a standard deviation of about 0.5% and 9% is a little less than five standard deviations away from your result. That is, the probability that an actual miss rate of 9% or more randomly resulted in 6.5% (130) out of 2000 swings missing is around 0.0001%. An actual miss rate of 8% is unlikely at less than 1% probability of yielding your result, but I suppose it's not completely impossible.

A Blelf Paladin guildie of mine just spend half an hour hitting the dummy and got a single miss at 7.2% hit, after doing 700 swings. He's not as rigorous as you and simply verified that he could miss at that level of rating, but based on your results and his I'm inclined to estimate that the actual value is closer to 7.5% base miss than 8% base miss for (Retribution) paladins.

brutalbovine · 12/04/08, 4:10 AM

Originally Posted by Travor

The white hit cap for a TG should be 19% (DW malus) + 5% base miss + 5% TG miss + 3% each lvl above + 1% boss -
so 33% overall or 32% when the cap has changed.

But keep in mind that every point of hit beyond 14% (or 13%) is kind of wasted.

You seem to be assuming TG affects the white hit cap, which it does not.

Titan's Grip only affects yellow hits, so the miss rate for TG specials against a boss is (base 7% + 5% for TG) + (Defense Skill - Weapon Skill - 10)*.4%, or 14%. This is assuming nothing has changed (which it seems like it has, judging by the above tests).

The hard cap for hit (white) is 28% against a boss. The formula for a mob that has more than 10 defense skill higher than your base weapon skill is 7% + (Defense Skill - Weapon Skill - 10)*.4% (substitute 26% for 7% if dual-wielding), again assuming they haven't modified the formula for WotLK.

Kinmaul · 12/04/08, 7:58 AM

I have done hours upon hours of raiding with my Ret paladin @7.01% hit and out of thousands of attacks the only misses I've seen recored on Recount were a few from Hammer of Wrath. I was specced 3/3 precision before they removed the talent in 3.0, but again no one really knows if that has anything to do with it. Unfortunately given my luck with drops I cannot really go much lower hit-wise unless I want to go find 5-man blues to replace my Naxx epics. Once I get a better selection of gear I plan to continue to drop hit until I start seeing evidence that I've dropped below the cap.

Sydane · 12/04/08, 11:24 AM

One fundamental aspect of the calculation is the assumption of the mob's defense level. Have people done testing using player defense levels to see if the calculation remains the same? Is there any way to test a mob's defense level other than with misses? Perhaps the new diminishing returns calculations on avoidance are actually affecting mob's levels of miss from defense.

Montegomery · 12/04/08, 11:57 AM

Originally Posted by Gleithan

Wild speculation here, but perhaps when they removed the inherent 1% resist chance for spells, they lowered the ranged/melee hit cap as well. The data in the hunter thread is indeed convincing; as it is I'll be aiming for 263 hit until someone somewhere reports a miss with over 8% hit.

I like wild speculation, but this really doesn't make too much sense. That last 1% resist chance wasn't outright removed, the ability for spell hit to remove that last 1% miss was added. I suppose it's possible.

What's more, or at least equally, likely is that this is related to the change to crushing blows.

Rhaegal · 12/04/08, 12:32 PM

Originally Posted by Darian_TruBlade

What's more, or at least equally, likely is that this is related to the change to crushing blows.

How? Crushing blows were able to be toggled on and off for specific bosses prior to WotLK, presumably (though there's no hard evidence, and now never will be) without effecting miss rates. Why would turning them off for all bosses effect a (theoretically) independent attribute?

I keep hoping someone will answer my earlier question about whether the DW miss rate seems to have been affected, or if it's still 28%. Unfortunately none of my characters capable of DWing are 80 yet, so I can't test on the boss dummies. If it's still 28%, then what we're seeing is a change/bug with just the 9% physical miss. If it's lower than 28% now, then I'd be more inclined to believe the possibility that Blizzard changed something else and it had some unintended consequence to physical hit. That said, Daronsk's post about having just over 13% hit as a TG warrior and still seeing special misses makes me inclined to think that's not the case... I'd just rather have more than a single report of it.

slipey · 12/04/08, 1:35 PM

I'm curious about this as well, although my findings have been a bit different. Here is a parse from Naxx. The ret pally Bronsson has 296 hit rating, however, he is still getting a significant number of misses on melee swing attacks. What could account for this?

Wow Web Stats

Rhaegal · 12/04/08, 2:02 PM

Originally Posted by slipey

I'm curious about this as well, although my findings have been a bit different. Here is a parse from Naxx. The ret pally Bronsson has 296 hit rating, however, he is still getting a significant number of misses on melee swing attacks. What could account for this?

Wow Web Stats

There's definitely something odd about his data. If you split the report to only include trash, he had melee swing misses on that, too. Considering there's no level 83 trash, either he wasn't wearing the 296 hit rating that he's showing on his armory, or is somehow seeing misses on lvl 80-82 mobs when wearing enough hit to be capped against lvl 83.

LodeRunner · 12/04/08, 2:12 PM

Here's 3 hours of Sartharion +3 drakes attempts and kill from last night. I was 0.05% under the hit cap, 359 rating instead of 361, and you will see there are misses. I'm inclined to believe it's still 9% for melee.

ithecho84 · 12/04/08, 2:16 PM

Originally Posted by Rhaegal

There's definitely something odd about his data. If you split the report to only include trash, he had melee swing misses on that, too. Considering there's no level 83 trash, either he wasn't wearing the 296 hit rating that he's showing on his armory, or is somehow seeing misses on lvl 80-82 mobs when wearing enough hit to be capped against lvl 83.

Perhaps his weapon skill was not up to par?

Rhaegal · 12/04/08, 2:22 PM

Originally Posted by LodeRunner

Here's 3 hours of Sartharion +3 drakes attempts and kill from last night. I was 0.05% under the hit cap, 359 rating instead of 361, and you will see there are misses. I'm inclined to believe it's still 9% for melee.

Whether or not Titan's Grip was affected by this is something that's still unknown, hence several of my previous posts. As mentioned above, if TG special miss is hard coded at 14%, not as physical miss + 5%, then a change to base physical miss wouldn't affect it, and TG would effectively be +6% miss on specials. Your example is another in favor of 13.x% being insufficient for TG warriors. However, the evidence in favor of 8% physical miss is extremely compelling right now, which leads me to believe TG giving +6% is the case, and needs to be brought to Blizzard's attention.

@ithecho: That's definitely a possibility. A little sad for him to be raiding without maxes weapon skill, but I'd be lying if I said I hadn't done it once or twice.

It would invalidate the report though.

[edit] The alternative conclusion from the tests favoring 8% physical miss is that the boss level dummies are not actually acting like boss level mobs, and all the hunter, etc., data from raids is just too small of a sample set. Certainly possible, but also an issue that needs to be brought up.

[edit2] I just looked through the WWS report, and all the misses I see on specials are parries. Did I miss something?

LodeRunner · 12/04/08, 2:23 PM

Woops Wow Web Stats

Montegomery · 12/04/08, 2:47 PM

Originally Posted by Rhaegal

How? Crushing blows were able to be toggled on and off for specific bosses prior to WotLK, presumably (though there's no hard evidence, and now never will be) without effecting miss rates. Why would turning them off for all bosses effect a (theoretically) independent attribute?

I may be wrong about the following, but I'm fairly certain it was clearly established during the beta that Blizzard didn't simply turn crushing blows off for bosses, but modified the fundamental game mechanics. Whereas previously a mob would have to be 3 or more levels higher to be able to land crushing blows, it was changed to be 4 or more levels.

That kind of mechanics change can conceivably have affected the melee hit cap, given that it directly involves the resolution of the melee hit tables.

Avin · 12/04/08, 2:56 PM

Originally Posted by Rhaegal

[edit2] I just looked through the WWS report, and all the misses I see on specials are parries. Did I miss something?

(Quoted to clarify this is in response to LodeRunner's WWS in the post after)
I only see Parries on specials too, easy to miss though as they show up in the confusingly named composite missed/avoided column "Missed%".

Of course that doesn't eliminate the possibility of Titan's Grip being hardcoded at something else than normal melee special miss + 5, but I'm happy enough with not getting evidence pointing directly towards that being the case.

Rhaegal · 12/04/08, 2:56 PM

Now that you mention it, I do remember reading that crushing was changed to 4+ level difference. The melee hit table is different for NPCs attacking PCs than it is for PCs attacking NPCs (e.g., crushing only ever shows up at any level difference in the former, and glancing only shows up at any level difference in the latter), but I see what you're saying. All the more reason to see if this is affecting hit tables other than just generic melee 9%!