Is melee hit cap really 9%? - Page 5

PSGarak · 12/09/08, 7:56 PM

We don't know that the reduction is exactly 1% to n decimal places. That's just the closest nice round number we've gotten. Likewise, someone stated mob dodge is around 6.35% or so, but since anywhere between 6.25% and 6.5% doesn't make a difference for us we just say 6.5%. We know these values to a ballpark, don't take them to be exact, and don't take their exactness as implications of the underlying mechanics.

Revart · 12/10/08, 11:59 AM

So I have a prediction and this may only apply to paladins (I'm not familiar with other class talents). I think that maybe passive haste buffs are bugged and somehow increasing your chance to hit a little math could prove this.

So if you have a 3.6 speed weapon in 60s you'll attack roughly 16.6 times at 9% to miss you'll miss about 1.4 times
Now with the 3% passive haste from imp ret aura, your attack speed would be about 3.49 allowing for about 17.1 attacks but if the game is still only missing 1.4 attacks you would only be missing 8.1% of the time. Further if you had imp windfury totem with you and this held true, you would only miss 6.4% of the time. I'm thinking this only goes for direct % in attack speed.

Now lets use this vs. the crit problem
Same 60s with 3.6 speed weapon and 30% to crit you should crit 4.9 times
But if you are still only critting 4.9 times with your weapon speed at 2.77 your crit chance would be a mere 22.6%

these are rough numbers I just pounded out on a calculator I have no real evidence to prove this but I have a 5% passive buff on my DK and I notice fewer misses and crits than expected as well.

Maahk · 12/10/08, 2:08 PM

Originally Posted by Revart

So I have a prediction and this may only apply to paladins (I'm not familiar with other class talents). I think that maybe passive haste buffs are bugged and somehow increasing your chance to hit a little math could prove this.

So if you have a 3.6 speed weapon in 60s you'll attack roughly 16.6 times at 9% to miss you'll miss about 1.4 times
Now with the 3% passive haste from imp ret aura, your attack speed would be about 3.49 allowing for about 17.1 attacks but if the game is still only missing 1.4 attacks you would only be missing 8.1% of the time. Further if you had imp windfury totem with you and this held true, you would only miss 6.4% of the time. I'm thinking this only goes for direct % in attack speed.

Now lets use this vs. the crit problem
Same 60s with 3.6 speed weapon and 30% to crit you should crit 4.9 times
But if you are still only critting 4.9 times with your weapon speed at 2.77 your crit chance would be a mere 22.6%

these are rough numbers I just pounded out on a calculator I have no real evidence to prove this but I have a 5% passive buff on my DK and I notice fewer misses and crits than expected as well.

I also am a DK with passive haste. I don't have any additional information as to whether haste is the source of the reduction in hit % needed to become unable to miss, but I can confirm that I have been melee hit capped at below 9%.

My WWS from last night, sitting at 290 hit shows 0 misses: WWS - Naxx Spider through Gothik (Note: my armory doesn't reflect the gear worn during this parse.)

vytautas · 12/10/08, 2:17 PM

12k white hits vs the boss level testing dummy.

Fairly standarad Arms raiding spec explaining the 15.05% crit on character screen rather than 5.05%. Vast majority of the information seems within accepted levels other than the Miss Rate, I have no head for maths so I couldn't tell you whether that being off .3% or .7% is off by any unusual level for that sample size but hopefully it helps people out in some way.

About to raid now, after I'll try and get another 10k hits in with a 2H weapon and I'll spam some specials too.

Bloodvalor · 12/10/08, 6:46 PM

Here is the testing I had done. Blood Elf Ret Paladin, had precision pre patch 3.0

http://elitistjerks.com/f76/t36972-r...p5/#post989919
http://elitistjerks.com/f76/t36972-r...p6/#post990246
http://elitistjerks.com/f76/t36972-r...p7/#post991085

The last one pretty much proves IMO that Ret Paladins ARE NOT getting any banked +hit from CURRENT talents.

Revart · 12/10/08, 9:10 PM

Ok so after some testing I have some interesting results!

At lvl72 I tested against the level 75 target dummy in Ebon Hold with no gear and a white 3.8 speed Axe according to (Miss - WoWWiki - Your guide to the World of Warcraft) I should have a 9% chance to miss

If there is a bug from the removal of the 1% spell miss and melee is capped at 8% my original predictions hold true

after testing 100, 200, then 300, totaling 600 hits My miss rates were as followed (on average)

At 3.62 Weapon speed I missed only 7.1% of the time
At 3.15 Weapon speed I missed only 6.3% of the time

3.62 weapon speed is from the passive 5% from imp icy talons
3.15 weapon speed is from the passive 5% from imp icy talons plus 15% from unholy aura

Now lets test this against my earlier math in 60s a 3.8 speed weapon should hit 15.7 times and at 8% miss, miss 1.2 times
If for some reason WoW is only calculating misses at 3.8 speed my miss chance should be....

7.2% at 3.62 weapon speed
6.3% at 3.15 weapon speed

Amazing! This is showing that passive haste effects increase your chance to hit!

heres my maths
(60/3.80)-(8%)=1.2 (Number of Misses in 60 seconds rounded down)
1.2*100/16.5= 7.1 (percent of misses in 60 seconds at 3.62 weapon speed)
1.2*100/19.04= 6.3 (percent of misses in 60 seconds at 3.15 weapon speed)

If this is somehow true that means that a shamans windfury totem would be worth 1.7% to hit as well

This is on the assumption though that there is currently bug making the hit cap 8% my numbers get skewed a little(but not much) at 9%

Writhe · 12/10/08, 10:18 PM

Originally Posted by Revart

Ok so after some testing I have some interesting results!

.......

heres my maths
(60/3.80)-(8%)=1.2 (Number of Misses in 60 seconds rounded down)
1.2*100/16.5= 7.1 (percent of misses in 60 seconds at 3.62 weapon speed)
1.2*100/19.04= 6.3 (percent of misses in 60 seconds at 3.15 weapon speed)

.......

This is on the assumption though that there is currently bug making the hit cap 8% my numbers get skewed a little(but not much) at 9%

We don't know if it is a bug, no blues have confirmed this, it may very well be intended. I assume they are watching and probably trying to figure out a hot fix if it is in fact a bug.

WWS?

Could you also explain your math a little more. For the life of me none of it makes any sense.

Your sample size is highly suspect. As is why you rounded 1.26 down to 1.2. I may just be dumb, but I don't have a clue where this 16.5 and 19.04 came from, why are you using 1.2 in the lower speed weapons 'calculations' when they will have a different number of misses / hits per minute purely because they hit more often.

Revart · 12/10/08, 10:56 PM

Originally Posted by Writhe

We don't know if it is a bug, no blues have confirmed this, it may very well be intended. I assume they are watching and probably trying to figure out a hot fix if it is in fact a bug.

WWS?

Could you also explain your math a little more. For the life of me none of it makes any sense.

Your sample size is highly suspect. As is why you rounded 1.26 down to 1.2. I may just be dumb, but I don't have a clue where this 16.5 and 19.04 came from, why are you using 1.2 in the lower speed weapons 'calculations' when they will have a different number of misses / hits per minute purely because they hit more often.

Basically in 60 seconds with a weapon swinging at 3.8 speed you will get 15.4 weapon swings and if you miss 8% of those swings you will miss 1.2 swings

at 3.62 weapon speed you will swing 16.5 times in 60 seconds
and 3.15 you will swing 19.04 times in 60 seconds

if the game calculates your miss rate at the original speed of you weapon you would still only miss 1.2 times in 60 seconds my test data supports this

Basically if you have a 3.8 weapon and no hit rating you will miss 1.2 times every 60 seconds equaling 8%

If you reduce the speed to 3.15 through a passive haste talent and/or ability (such as unholy aura+ imp icy talons) you should miss 1.52380... times in 60 seconds equaling an 8% chance to miss but that is not the case you still only miss 1.2 times equaling 6.3%

it would work the same with 10000 seconds at 3.8 you would hit 2631.6 times and at 8% to miss you would miss 210 times.

In the same 10000 seconds with a weapon hasted to 3.15 seconds you would hit 3174.6 times and with no hit rating you should miss 253.9 times but data is showing you would still only miss about 210 times I'm working on a long term test of this.

Writhe · 12/10/08, 11:24 PM

Ah right, thanks, like proc per minute mechanics. Makes sense.

Oh yea I was meant to test this wasn't I better go set Boo attacking while I'm working.

Revart · 12/10/08, 11:27 PM

one of the first series of test currently preforming a very prolonged test but this shows the lower miss % with the increased weapon speed

[EDIT]: so I logged in and there was a patch with no notes...hotfix? Because now I'm sitting at 9% miss. and my SS which is one of around 9 totaling around 2000 hits average the same results but now after...692 and counting exactly 9%. Huh.

Writhe · 12/10/08, 11:55 PM

I'm at around 400 hits currently, and around 10% miss rate on auto attack, keep going I don't see these low number tests being very conclusive. 7/100 misses is an entire percentage different to 8/100..

Easiest way to test would be to throw on 270-280 (well passed the 8%) hit rating and seeing if you miss ever.

Also I noticed a download yesterday, don't think it was related. A hotfix of this nature is server side (changing boss stats, game mechanics and calculations).

Update:
600, closing in on 9% now.

Update:
800 Back up around 10% now

Update:
1000 Back down to 9.1%

• Aldriana · 12/11/08, 12:32 AM

Please note that it takes thousands if not tens of thousands of hits to get the margin of error on a miss right to a level that's significant, so I would hesitate to drawn any conclusions about the mechanics until such largescale tests can be performed.

Writhe · 12/11/08, 1:20 AM

I would say closer to the 100's of thousands if not millions if you want to nit pick, but I don't have that much time to test this without running some sort of anti-afk bot. Averaging out everyones small results is probably the best we can do without breaking the ToS.

kbranch · 12/11/08, 1:57 AM

The game actually won't log you out if you're in combat, I was able to run a roughly 9 hour test (link) a few weeks ago on a heroic target dummy. Your gear will break after a few hours, but you should be able to let a naked test run for as long as you want.

• Aldriana · 12/11/08, 2:57 AM

The game has started logging me out in combat in the past week or so - I don't know if it's just me, but it may be the case that AFKing overnight isn't as viable a technique as it used to be.

That said, it's also perfectly reasonable to take a few parses with identical gear on consecutive nights (or whatever) to get the necessary data size. And yes, hundreds of thousands would be better, but I think we could make some pretty good initial estimates off 25000 swings, which isn't too unreasonable to put together.