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For items with 45 second internal cooldowns and 15% proc rate a fair approximation is to assume it procs about 1/minute, or perhaps a bit faster. This in my case anyway matches what I see in WWS parses for uptime of the buff for Sundial vs total time recorded.
The napkin-math theory goes like this.
What you've got is 45+(function based on how fast you cast/% chance to proc) = average seconds between procs.
With a 15% proc rate it takes betwen 4-5 castings to get a 50% chance of proccing.
If you cast ~3 second spells/effects then you're looking at 57-60 seconds, if you cast ~1.5 second spells/effects you're looking at 51-52.5 seconds for a 50% chance to proc. You'll never get 100% chance to proc the way statistics works most of the curve for a typical rotation, including haste and other crap speeding individual casts will get the median proc time a bit under 15 seconds. How far depends on your rotation and how the day went.
A 10% proc rate would widen the gap, probably more like "a bit over a minute" rather than "a bit under a minute". The fixed 45s cooldown keeps these trinkets fairly predictable for long term dps.
Items like mirror of truth that proc on crit obviously depend on your crit rate and are going to be more variable than items like Sundial that proc on hit. Blizzard seems to compensate for that somewhat with higher proc rates after cooldown, at least according to wowhead comments. I have yet to get such an item to play with it myself.
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