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Believe it or not, that trinket has been nerfed from it's original version, where it did around 2,500 damage.
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It used to do 500 dmg, on 5 crit procs. It was recently buffed in the 2.0.3 patch, to increase damage to 1000, and lower required crits to 3. In my opinion, the 500 dmg, 5 crits maybe was marginally underpowered, but still probaly closer to balance than the current version.
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The 'accepted' theorycraft in my guild for how much it still provides is around 46 DPS
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On a frost mage, typical 800-850 damage, it will be giving around 44*3/3.5 / 2.5 = 12.7 dps base, plus the hit, and with avg DPS around the 800 mark, the 1.4% ish hit will be around another 11.2 dps. Roughly 23-24 dps at most. No way is Nelth Tear pumping out 46 DPS, not even close.