Originally Posted by Yubble
Having a hard time wrapping my head around why crit is valued higher, at all, than mastery. Here's a post I made on the battle.net dk forums with some maths I jotted down - please take a look:
2h Frost: Mastery vs. Crit - bad napkin math - Forums - World of Warcraft
Overall, I'm wondering if anybody else can provide a clear explanation as to why (considering the amount of frost damage we do, as well as how much KM devalues crit) crit should ever be rated above mastery for 2h frost.
And - yes - I'm basically saying that I don't believe the sims.
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1% of crit rating (600 rating) allows everything you do that does damage a 1% chance to do double damage, so it's basically a 1% dmg increase. However, it's a 1% increase to your base damage before crits. If 1% of the time you do 100% extra dmg, it's the same as doing 1% extra dmg 100% of the time. Let's say you do 1 dmg per hit, and 100 hits every fight with no crit chance. If you increased the crit chance to 1%, you would crit once, and do 2 dmg for that hit, bringing your total to 101 dmg, or a 1% increase. Likewise, if you do 100% extra dmg 50% of the time, it's the same as doing 50% extra dmg 100% of the time. While going from 0-1% crit rating is a straight up 1% dmg increase, going from 50-51% is a 0.67% dmg increase. Back to the first example, doing 100 hits for 1 dmg each in a fight, but this time with a 50% crit chance to start with. Your dmg would be 50 hits of 1 and 50 hits of 2, or 150 total. Going up another 1% would give you one more crit, and increase your dmg by 1, to 151 total, or a 0.67% overall dmg increase.
The formula to find out how big an increase 1% extra crit chance would be is
(crit % +101)/(crit chance+100)
However, this doesn't take 3 special abilities into account. The first of which is howling blast, which, being our only ability that takes the spell crit rate instead of the melee crit rate, crits 5% less of the time compared to every normal ability. Now, howling blast accounts for about 7.5% of 2hand's total dmg. To adjust the above formula, we simply split the HB dmg and the rest of the dmg into
((crit % +101)/(crit chance+100)*.925) + ((crit % +96)/(crit chance+95)*.075)
Now we need to take KM procs for both FS and oblit into account. A 50k iteration sim tells us that, on average, 19.1% of FS's crits and 25.3% of oblits crits come from KM.
Frost strike accounts for 26.2% of the overall dmg, with 170.2 total casts. With 19.1% of those casts being KM crits, that's 32.5 crits from KM, each worth 120200 dmg. That means 33.3% of FS dmg is from km procs, and that's 8.72% of the total dmg from frost that doesn't benefit from crit rating.
Now the same thing with obliterate.
Oblit is 32.2% of frosts total dmg, with 105.7 total casts. With 25.3% of those being KM crits, that's 26.74 crits, each worth 226972 dmg. Which leaves 35.6% of oblit dmg being caused by KM, and 11.46% of frosts dmg not benefiting from crits.
That's a total of 20.18% of frosts dmg not benefitting from crit rating, which gives us the below formula for the value of crit.
((crit % +101)/(crit chance+100)*.723) + ((crit % +96)/(crit chance+95)*.075)
The BiS melee crit chance is 14.5%, which when plugged into out little formula, gives us a
0.631% + 0.068%, or 0.699% dmg increase per 600 crit rating. This is multiplied by 1.06, to account for the meta gem, giving us a final value of
0.741% increased dps.
Keep in mind this doesn't take skull banners into account, which would increase the value slightly but are very difficult to model.
2% more frost dmg (600 rating) is similar to crit in how we can model it. Going from 0 to 2% is a 2% increase for frost dmg, and going from 50-52% is a (152/150) (1.01333%) increase for frost dmg.
Which gives us a similar formula
(mastery% + 102)/(mastery% +100) *(% of dmg total that is frost/100)
Frost damage sources for 2hand are howling blast, frost strike, and frost fever. These total at 37.5% of frost's dmg for the default BiS profile on simcraft.
Raid buffed, BiS lists put us at 36.54% mastery.
Plugging that into the formula says that frost gets 0.549% increased dps for 600 mastery rating.
Sims have crit at 1.4, and mastery at 1.09, so crit's about 29% higher according to the sims. My evaluation puts crit at about 35% higher. Seems about right.
TL;DR
So crit > mastery
Because crit effects more than twice as much of your dmg than mastery, for twice the rating per %.
All numbers taken from BiS 2hand T14 sim 510-9, feel free to sub in a logs numbers if you want. However, I didn't use the scaling feature at all, only pulling numbers like average oblits and crit%s and km procs, and so on and so forth. Formulas also provided, if you want to use them for your gear setup.
Edit: math mistake throwing off crit numbers, old math below for reference, OP updated.

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Now we need to take KM procs for both FS and oblit into account. A 50k iteration sim tells us that, on average, 19.1% of FS's crits and 25.3% of oblits crits come from KM.
Frost strike accounts for 26.2% of the overall dmg, with 170.2 total casts. With 19.1% of those casts being KM crits, that's 32.5 crits from KM, each worth 60100 dmg. That means 14.1% of FS dmg is from km procs, and that's 3.69% of the total dmg from frost that doesn't benefit from crit rating.
Now the same thing with obliterate.
Oblit is 32.2% of frosts total dmg, with 105.7 total casts. With 25.3% of those being KM crits, that's 26.74 crits, each worth 113486 dmg. Which leaves 17.8% of oblit dmg being caused by KM, and 5.73% of frosts dmg not benefiting from crits.
That's a total of 9.42% of frosts dmg not benefitting from crit rating, which gives us the below formula for the value of crit.
((crit % +101)/(crit chance+100)*.831) + ((crit % +96)/(crit chance+95)*.075)
The BiS melee crit chance is 14.5%, which when plugged into out little formula, gives us a
0.725% + 0.068%, or 0.793% dmg increase per 600 crit rating. This is multiplied by 1.06, to account for the meta gem, giving us a final value of
0.841% increased dps.
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