I agree that there is a point where extending the length of diseases would be devalued but I don't think even at 21 or 24 seconds we are close to it. Why over-complicate it? With the glyph your concern is simply IT+PS less and SS more. With an extra 3 seconds we will most definitely be SS'ing more. If anything the value of both the glyph and the talents have gone up.

Also, even if you aren't using the SS glyph you are guaranteed 100% uptime if you are playing properly and so you won't have to worry about EP dropping off and losing raid dps.

I'm on the other side of the fence with your theory. As the length of diseases increases and gives you greater # chances to refresh it, then the value of the SS glyph increases. Until the % chance of the diseases not being refreshed is < 1-2%, then longer duration is better. With 5 SS (the number you can squeeze into 21 seconds), there's still a 23.7% chance that the diseases won't be refreshed. It wouldn't be until 8 SS (~30 seconds) that you get down to a 10% chance of the diseases not refreshing. So, until we have 40 second diseases, the SS glyph is gtg.

Why 1-2%? Why not 3%?

Point being that there isn't a threshold...it's an asymptote. Yes, the longer the diseases the last the greater the chance that SS Glyph will proc, but there's an even greater chance that the extra disease time will be wasted. If you were to graph the distribution of "SS's until refresh" you would find that although the average value was a few SS's, the single largest category was 1 SS. Why? Because of all the SS's you make, only 75% make it to the 2nd SS. Only 75% of those make it to the 3rd SS. Etc.

So if you extend your disease duration out, say, to 10 SS's, the chance of actually getting to the 10th one is 0.75 ^ 10, or about 4%. So 96% of the time you get no benefit from extending your diseases past 9 SS's.

I just ran some terribly basic simulations for 1040 SS's per scenario.

The assumptions were a SS every 4 seconds so 5 SS's every 20 seconds. 25% chance on each SS to proc the length of diseases.

I then got the average uptime for each possible situation:

TOTAL UPTIME:

15 seconds: 68.96%
18 seconds: 75.86%
21 seconds: 80.47%
and if they ever add that third point...
24 seconds: 84.21%

Therefore, for:
1 point in Epidemic you gain 10% more uptime
2 points = 6.08%
and the hypothetical
3 points = 4.65%

So you are absolutely right that each point depreciates in value at least in this basic simulation but how that translates into DPS I'm still not sure.

One possible way to figure this out would be this:

TOTAL DAMAGE =UPTIME%*SSdamage + DOWNTIME*(IT+PSdamage)

That would mean that with an average of 5300dmg for SS and an average of (1511+2105)3616 PS+IT Damage you would get the following average per FU pair...

0 points = 4777.32 or (*5 FU pairs /20 seconds = 1194.33dps)
1 point = 4893.411 or (1223.353)
2 points = 4971.134 or (1242.784)
3 points = 5034.095 or (1258.524)

... how that translates into REAL dps I'm not sure yet. I'm tired now.

Like I said, it's a very basic simulation. "Uptime" is in fact the amount of time the debuffs are up on the mob. It's not very realistic because you would never 'let' less than 99% uptime occur if you are playing properly. However, it does help show how often your FU pairs would need to be shifted from SS's to PS+IT. Another inaccuracy is the spacing of FU pairs being 4 seconds exactly.

Until I can actually model the SS glyph on a spreadsheet properly, I'm fairly confident that this is the best I can contribute to the discussion. I'll give it some more thought though.

I totally forgot about the BCB nerf. As for necrosis, recount doesn't show it's damage per say (it lists necrosis as ~0.1% of my damage), so I calculated 0.69% per talent point by looking at the damage done by melee attacks. So either I made a mistake or you have something funky going on with yours (I'm more inclined to go with the former).

As far as I see it, unless they change the cost of Ghoul Frenzy to either RP or to 1U+1F (and up the damage from it), it will end up being a worthless talent.

So now we need to wait and see what the jury decides on IUP. If it turns out that IUP isn't worth the point, then the filler points in BcB does seem like the best option. Something like:

17/0/54

I'll caveat the math below with my feeling that Epidemic has more value than simply increasing the probability SS will proc, such as keeping diseases ticking for longer when you have to run out or there's an air phase (which is going to be magnified if you're the only 13% magic debuffer), giving you more globals to play around with, and simplifying your rotation.

That said, purely on the gained dps from the increased chance SS will proc, the best method I can think of to calculate expected dps gain is to look at the probability we have to refresh diseases each span of disease time. Multiply the probability you have to refresh at least once in that span by the damage you lose when you're forced to refresh, and divide by the span of time to get the expected dps loss. You can then do the same thing with one step higher of disease length, look at the difference, and the decrease in expected dps loss is what that talent point gains you. I'm using the same numbers as Methods for consistency's sake; 5300 average SS, 3616 average PS+IT (aka 1684 less damage), an SS every 4 seconds. I'm also ignoring RP for the moment.

Probability of SS failing to proc at least once in Y casts of SS = (1-.25)^Y. On average you'll SS 3.75 times in a 15 second disease window, 4.5 times in a 18 second disease window, and 5.25 times in a 21 second disease window.

15 seconds = 34.0% = 573 expected damage loss = 38 expected dps loss
18 seconds = 27.4% = 461 expected damage loss = 25 expected dps loss
21 seconds = 22.1% = 372 expected damage loss = 17 expected dps loss

With this math, Epidemic point 1 appears to give you 13 dps and point 2 appears to give you 8 dps.

I like this ptr spec


http://talent.mmo-champion.com/?deat...6&version=9626

my rotation has been,


PS-IT-BS-BS-SS-DC
SS-SS-SS-DC-DC-REPEAT

Im the good old fashion 17/0/54 spec so i only get 5 expertise from my spec. I have also have not been very lucky when it comes to expertise item drops so i only have [Ruthlessness] equipped at the moment. The other day i was tired of only having 8 expertise so i dropped 6 [Bold Scarlet Ruby] and replaced them with 6 [Precise Scarlet Ruby].
When i consume a expertise elixer i am at soft cap (26 expertise). My question is....is it better to sit at 20 expertise and close to 3600ap or is it better to have 8 expertise have over 3800ap and a lot more strength for my base stats?

Modeling expertise's worth is still not completely agreed upon. There are many ways to look at it and even more ways to model it. In some of my builds I've seen expertise worth as much as 3.5 AP where other times I've seen it as low as 1 ap in equivalent points. The main source of variation has been addressing how to model the delay caused by a miss/dodge. I'm confident that expertise is far less valuable for 17/0/54 than say 51/0/20. We have room to miss as unholy and therefor shouldn't be worried about DPS loss from a dodge or two unless they happen in succession of each other. Maxing Exp is a bit too costly IMO and so you should just be aiming for the smallest amount of dodges without sacrificing anything else generally accepted as 'rock solid'.

What isn't hard to model and has been pretty consistent throughout all spreadsheet builds and specs has been Strength.

Strength, depending on gear level, is generally worth between 2.7 and 3 AP. As a rule of thumb for Unholy I would say that you should gem nothing but STR no matter what your gear is like. There are far too many factors in it's favor to say otherwise. This has also been discussed in great detail since the launch of WotLK.

Has your runic power intake been lowered so much in 3.1 that you can't get a 2nd DC off in your first rotation.

My rotation at the moment is

PS-IT-BS-BS-SS-DC-UB
SS-SS-SS-DC-DC-REPEAT(if diseases are about to fall off)