As a note to that dps comparison.
The first 3 specs, so 2H unholy and blood, are all VERY close together. The difference in that area is really gonna be made between which spec fits you better.

Frost was slightly behind. Not by a huge margin, but enough to make the difference (4-5%).

Tests were done by Methods

Because, if you read his post, the data is from the unholy thread. Its also not his test (although we can actually blame Valtiel for not mentioning his source).

The test wasn't originally done to test frost builds.

It was to compare the 2 unholy builds versus the blood build of which people were expecting it would outscale other frost and unholy.

Ah, they're sims, not actual fights/parses. At this point in time, I'm extremely hesitant to accept the results of sims, given the volatility of the PTR, the inherent error in modeling dynamic rotations and the variability associated with each fight.

Yeah, I took these consideration in account in my original post. However I need to point out that spreadsheet evaluation was pretty spot on in past PTR comparisons.

The only prediction that seems to be off target at this point is Frost scaling.

May I just say that I'm fully with Darkside (and many others) on the relative value of Sims/spreadsheets when it comes to small gaps between tests. Real fights mean more no matter what. Larger gaps are another story. Yes Sims/spreadsheets assume a lot. Averages only really make sense over long periods of time.

However, we predicted Frost's lag behind (fairly accurately might I add) before the proper gear was even available. I really don't see what Blizzard is seeing. Frost has always been behind.

-Maybe it's the 'goodwill' of Killing Machine ambiguity that has partially distorted figures (I think we've got a much better grasp on it now however).
-Maybe it's something as simple as the Razorice KM proc glitch. If I punch in double the KM procs Frost dps jumps to nearly equal blood (give or take 1%).
-Perhaps because of DW's taint? Now, DW is nearly dead/preference based and Frost 2H is better than before but not by enough IMO.
-Maybe they are compensating for the possible AOE burst available to frost through Rime.

The problem comes in when extensive error checking cannot reveal why a seemingly good spec would lag behind so much (4-5% is huge in e-peen world). Yes, Frost talents and skills are solid. Blood and Unholy just have more throughput. One major problem is Frost doesn't have a Gargoyle/DRW equivalent. Rime procs are now working in the right direction for 2H but it's still no DRW/Garg.

What could be done?:
-Increase high end talents so that frost has a top heavy spread like Unholy.
-Increase the haste given (DK only) on Imp Icy Talons
-Give more punch to Annihilation (and maybe give blood a reason to do 51/20/0 type builds)
-Create a frost damage proc similar to shaman frostbrand (or a frost Necrosis) to increase the value of Haste for frost.
-Talented skills like FS are already bursting for more than enough but Maybe shift some more damage into Blood of the north.
-Make merciless combat ~20% instead of 12%?
-Increase the PPM of Killing Machine?

Any combination of the above or better ideas would easily make up for the 5% missing. Most of the above changes would not be possible for 3.1 besides percentage tweaks.

I want to see what Blizzard is seeing. I wish I could see their models. They will never share it though. This is all we have and that is how they (GC at least) like it and honestly I can understand.

Frost is the last one left. Everything else has been done to near perfection. I'm very happy with what blizzard has done with all three of our specs. I just hope that Blizzard is taking a really good look at how the next week goes with frost specifically.

PS: I would have posted this on the suggestion forms but I haven't been able to post on Blizzard forms since before BC. Too bad for me/them but I guess there are plenty of others out there with the same or better ideas.

Here are some DPS numbers for example (I usually speak in percentages but here are some realistic high end numbers):
Lets say none of the specs can have the ghoul survive in any given fight (3 minute averages):

-Unholy DPS would be sitting around ~5.8-5.9k dps (with gargoyle but not ghoul) for 12/0/59 and similar with 0/10/61
-Blood would be at ~6.1 DPS (with DRW obviously) as 51/2/18 and similar with 51/0/20
-Frost DPS would ALSO be around ~5.8-5.9k as 17/51/3 (which means practically 0 dps with the ghoul anyway)
-Frost DPS for 0/51/20 would be ~5.5-5.6k (so maybe 30-55% of a ghoul on top?)

This seems odd to me. Add on the massive dps of the ghoul for Unholy and the partial Ghoul for Blood and you start to see Frost get swallowed. It would make more sense to see Frost dps on par with Blood sans Ghoul (at least for 17/51/3). If you then add on the extra Utility/Survivability you can't help but feel sorry for frost. Big numbers are fun right?

We can always hope I'm wrong though.

I perfectly agree, on all points.

Frost is my specc of choice, but it's a pain to see that Blizzard still didn't figure out what they want to do with it.

The core problem, as you outline, is that while frost has a very solid core system, it lacks controllable, cooldown based buffs that can be utilized in the same way Garg and DRW can.

The new UA was close to be that - on a 1 min cooldown, it would have provided a smaller dps increase over longer periods of time. On a 2 min cd, it's so minor compared to the other 2 cooldowns that's pointless to even compare them.

I don't have time to post my proposed solutions, but it's an interesting topic nonetheless.

Blizzard devs admitted that they messed up with Rogue balancing a few months ago due to a crit bug, so if they always tested Frost with bugged RI enchant procing KM that may have messed up their balancing (it was fixed on live a few days ago, no idea if the PTR got the fix as well).

I like your possible ideas to buff Frost up that last 4% or so. It sounds worthwhile to repost those in the PTR forum as a bug.

Question on Strikes mechanics in 3.1

"Instantly strike the enemy, causing 40% weapon damage plus 305.6, total damage increased by 12.5% for each of your diseases on the target."

How would you interpret the above? Say you have 2 diseases on your target

Is the formula

(Total Damage) x (1 + 12.5% x 2)

or

(Total Damage) x (1 + 12.5%)^2

?

Total Damage) x (1 + 12.5% x 2)

Put another way, having one disease on the target increases damage by 12.5%, while having two will increase damage by 25%.

[e]: Copy/Paste failure, thanks for fact checking me.

What you have written and the equation you presented are not the same.

(1 + 12.5%)^2 = 1.265, a 26.5% increase.

Just some quick math backing up the numbers

Ran all spec's with 4000ap/25crit/hitcap/expcap/220dps wep + raid buffs +1000ap,lotp/scorch,misery,coe,kings etc

These numbers only account for single target dps, so due to aoe in the fights there would be some variaton.

0/45/26 G=OB/FS/Ghoul

IT-PS-OB-BS-BS-FS-FS-FS (85rp cycle)
OB-OB-OB-FS-FS-FS (105 rp cycle)

White = 700 dps
6 FS ~7k in 21 seconds =2kdps
4 OB ~6k in 21 seconds =1.15kdps
2 BS ~2.5 in 21 seconds = 240 dps
IT ~2.2k in 21 seconds = 110 dps
PS ~2.5k in 21 seconds = 120dps
FF ~ 3k in 21 seconds = 150 dps
BP ~ 3k in 21 seconds =150 dps
Necrosis = 200 dps
BCB 2k in 21 seconds = 95 dps
Ghoul avg = 500 dps
-10% movement
total 4900 dps

Thing about this spec is that its short 2 rp every 21 seconds to keep that 3rd FS going. So basically its req to cast HOW every 105 seconds and also this cycles first rotation should look like HoW-IT-PS-OB-BS-BS-BT/UA-FS-FS-FS.

0/10/61 G=ghoul,DD,IT

IT-PS-BS-BS-SS-UB-DC
SS-SS-SS-DC-DC and 1/2 DC

white 700
4 SS ~5335 =1067dps
3.5 DC ~4000 = 700
2 BS ~2800 = 280
IT ~2150 = 108
PS ~3150 =158
UB ~276dps
FF ~215dps
BP ~215dps
WP~150dps
Ghoul ~500dps
Garg ~750dps
Necrosis ~200 dps
BcB ~125 dps
-8.5% movement (unholy aura)
total 4981

I skipped glyph of SS for this build as it just doesn't seem very good IT+PS =5300dmg where as SS =5335, i prefer having a tighter rotation +5rp per cycle over +35 dmg per cycle.

Now i did these numbers with out any sigils so lets run dps w/ awareness and with vengeful.

Awareness
+189 SS = 189*4*1.15*1.05*1.02*1.1*1.1*1.13 = 1273 *crit/crit bonus(53.56%) = 1954dmg/20sec =97dps
+336 OB = 336*4*1.15*1.042 =1610 *crit/crit bonus(75%) =2817/21sec =134 dps
Vengeful
+380 FS = 380*6*1.15*1.15*1.1*1.2*1.13*1.042 = 4686 *crit/crit bonus(135%) =6326/21sec = 301dps
+380 DC = 380*3.5*1.15*1.15*1.15*1.13*1.1*1.1*1.05*1.02= 2962 *crit/crit bonus(33%) =3939/20 =196dps

So adding these into the dps numbers above 0/45/26 will come out just slightly ahead.

As always open to debate.