PvP armor is decent because of the slightly higher ilvl for a given tier than the PvE equivalent piece making it better in many cases (but not all!) but you lose so much itemisation to Resilience which is now completely useless for bears that they'll only ever be a stopgap on the way to better gear and never BiS.

That said, the PvP blues especially are very easy to get and make good pre-raid pieces for slots you're having trouble getting drops for.

I MT with 10 expertise. I'd happily trade that 320exp rating for 320 dodge rating (or even better, 320agi) in a heartbeat. You don't need any exp at all, it's just 'nice to have'.

I currently have 0 exp rating on my gear. And I am doing just fine. The only problem you might have threat wise is right on the pull. And to counter that you have Berserk. That's all you really need to stay ahead of the dps. Sure, the extra expertise will help smooth out the rotation and slightly increase the SD uptime, however it's quite hard to do this in the current tier. You will simply lose too much survivability.

As for the 4pT11... I got a bit lucky with the TB drops and already have the 4 pieces. Yes, there are a lot better itemised off-set pieces ([Tsanga's Helm], [Poison Protocol Pauldrons], [Sark of the Unwatched], [Double Attack Handguards]) but with reforging I am not sure it's worth using those over the set items.
The problem is that all the encounters on normal are so easy, that none of them really pushes the tank survivability to the limit. They are not even getting close. Sure, for all those encounters I'd wear off-set items and put agility gems and enchants to make our healer's job even easier. However, I'd never go with agility gems/enchants or without the 4pT11 to a heroic encounter. So far I have only done Halfus, but damn, that is one crazy fight. The tank damage (especially on the tank taking two of the drakes at the same time) is really insane. And I wouldn't be surprised if the rest of the heroic content proves just as difficult. And maybe the biggest clue for this is the fact that the majority of the tanks in the top guilds are using survivability oriented gems and enchants (stamina) instead of mitigation ones (avoidance).

Fair point. I will add a latency factor to my spreadsheet and see how that works out. In any case expertise will probably still be the preferred stat over crit if the mitigation loss is minor, simply because as a threat stat it is at least 3x better.

I was quite sure that formula takes into account >1 previous dodge, although it wasn't described by Anothriel as doing so. I've tested the formula with Monte Carlo simulations and the results seem correct, but I'll need to check in more detail. There are other issues with the SD formula's assumptions I've highlighted in the thread, but they are pretty minor. I'm not too keen on Anothriel's 'sim-within-a-spreadseet' solution, because eventually I want to port the whole spreadsheet into a Mew formulation (which is supposed to be fast).

As the poster above stated, stamina is only needed for heroic raid content. Stick with AGI for gems and trinkets and dodge for reforging. Tanks just don't get 2 shot anymore. For 5 mans try and keep some kind of expertise set around otherwise group pulls can get really hectic. I just swap in trinkets.

Rawr is pretty messed up still for trinkets. They're fixing them, just really slowly.

This is no longer true. Almost all trinkets are modeled properly in Rawr now. You might have an old version of the item cache, so use Options > Reset All Caches to get the latest version.

I've reforged everything properly, I believe. Almost all my gems are Agility (I still have a few Stamina gems in there.) But since I'm starting to figure out Rawr now, it's telling me to gem almost completely for Stamina. Why is that?

Yes, I've buffed myself with everything I typically have in a guild 10 man.

I'm quite far off the 450k survival soft cap. I'm at just over 400k, but with over 570k mitigation. Is this normal?

Use Rawr to improve your gems and enchants. You're missing some pretty important enchants (staff enchant, head enchant) and using sub-par gems/enchants in other slots. Using Rawr I was able to get you to 450k pretty easily.

I know you stated you did, but double check your buffs again, Demo Roar, Priest Inspiration, etc will make a large difference.

Looks like I found the problem! I wasn't including Priest Inspiration since it isn't a 100% uptime buff. (You could argue that the others aren't either, but if, for example, a Shaman was refreshing their Stoneskin totem appropriately, then it is a 100% uptime buff.)

Thanks.

I'd think there'd be a lot more physical than magical damage overall. I think 60% of the damage is physical at most on the tank or something like that. Just a guess. Besides we now have perseverance if you need it.