Originally Posted by Alarron
I've been studying the outputs of both Mew and Simulationcraft: currently, they differ significantly on their estimates for feral DPS. One of the big discrepancies I've noted is the estimation of crit%. Using my current gear with all buffs, Mew estimates a 37.43% crit rate for melee, 37.40% crit rate for specials, and 10.15% miss/dodge chance. SC estimates a 36.4% crit rate for melee, 32.9% crit rate for specials, and a 9.6% miss/dodge chance.
Thoughts?
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Hmmm, checking over my character: (520 hit rating, 188 expertise rating)
Hit: 520 / 120.109 = +4.329401 %
Expertise: 188 / 30.0272 = 6.26099 Expertise = -1.565248% Dodge
Base mob avoidance at 85 vs a raid boss is -8% hit 6.5% dodge.
14.5 - (4.329401 + 1.565248) = 8.605351
Mew Formulation: Chance Miss/Dodge (%): 8.60535
Mew Simulation: Chance Miss/Dodge (%): 8.60535
Taking the lazy way of working out if crit is handled properly:
Character sheet crit rate (w/MotW, in cat form): 41.11%
I'm no where near the white crit cap, so I would expect 41.11 - 4.8 = 36.31% White Crit.
Mew Formulation: Crit % for White: 36.31453
Mew Simulation: Crit % for White: 36.34242 (10k iterations), 36.31799 (50k iterations)
There's actually 2 yellow crit rates to consider. One which factors in yellow attacks being two roll, one which does not (periodic effects, can multiply this by 1 - (pMiss + pDodge) to get the former). For historical reasons Mew reports the latter, thus reported white crit ~= yellow crit (though internally it is doing the right thing). It's fairly obvious that the figure you give for Simcraft's yellow crit is the former (0.364 * (1 - 0.096) = 0.329056).
As of right now I don't think Mew is doing the wrong thing when calculating combat table probabilities (though I only compared things without procs or raid buffs to in game, I *could* be grossly mishandling those, however I don't have any major reasons to suspect so at the moment).
Edit: Bleah. There's a discrepancy in auto attack damage self buffed between a Simcraft profile that only white swings and a Mew one that does the same. So there's differences in any one of armor mitigation (formula or value), deriving cat form AP, or deriving weapon damage. That's about as far as I can go looking into it today.