Elitist Jerks [Feral-Bear] Theorycraft (Rawr.Bear)

09/20/10, 2:18 AM   #1
Astrylian
Rawr

Night Elf Monk

Stormrage
[Feral-Bear] Theorycraft (Rawr.Bear)

This thread is for collaborating on Bear theorycraft. I'd like to have one central thread for intelligent discussion that advances the realm of theorycraft for bears. I'm striving to have Rawr.Bear as accurate and complete as possible for Cataclysm release, and have been doing significant research on the formulae involved. This thread is for sharing and peer-reviewing that theorycraft, and seeing what others are doing. While the focus is on Bear, some other specs' data that's closely related will creep in. Please do not post unless you have something useful to contribute.

Damage and Threat Formulae
I'll start with the damage and threat formulae that I've reverse engineered so far. This is all based on extensive testing, not just looking at tooltips (which are frequently wrong). This is up to date as of build 13195:
 Ability Rage Cost Average Damage Affected by Mangle Affected by Armor Affected by Master Shapeshifter Threat (Bear=3.0) Notes Non-Damage Abilities +3 Rage (on Dodge) -3 15/TargetCount (5 per Rage gained) +5 Rage (on Crit) -5 25/TargetCount (5 per Rage gained) Enrage Initial -20 100/TargetCount (5 per Rage gained) Enrage Tick -1 Bear*5/TargetCount (Bear*5 per Rage gained) Primal Madness (Enrage or Berserk) -12 60/TargetCount (5 per Rage gained) iLotP Heal 0 0 Clearcast 0 Bear*10/TargetCount Furor -10 0 Demoralizing Roar 10 Bear*12/TargetCount Skull Bash 1 0 Feral Charge 5 Bear*40 Bash 10 Bear*96 Challenging Roar 15 Bear*98/TargetCount Barkskin 0 Bear*58/TargetCount Survival Instincts 0 Bear*20/TargetCount Berserk 0 Bear*60/TargetCount Damage Abilities Melee 0 (AP/14 * 2.5) + (WeaponDPS * 2.5) No Yes Yes Bear*Dmg Fury Swipes 0 Melee*3.1 No Yes Yes Bear*Dmg Thorns 0 214 + (BearFormAP or SP of casting druid) * 0.168 No No No Bear*Dmg Yes, it actually uses the AP you would have in bear form. Shroom 0 718 + (SP*0.464) No No No Dmg You *can* equip caster gear, then macro /equipset bear gear after Detonate, and get the SP multiplier Shroom+BearForm 0 718 + (SP*0.464) No No No Bear*Dmg You *can* macro bear form after Detonate, and get the bear form multiplier Shroom Detonate 0 0 No No No 85 Yes, it's weird, but Detonate gives 85 threat to all mobs you're in combat with, regardless of whether they're hit by a shroom explosion. Does not get the bear multiplier Faerie Fire 0 1+AP*0.15 No No No Bear*(Dmg+774 + (48*FeralAggression)) Oddly, you don't get the Feral Aggression bonus when you initiate combat with the Faerie Fire. In the formula, FeralAggression is the number of talent points in FeralAggression Avalanche 0 ~500 No No No Bear*Dmg Mangle 15 Melee*3.6 + 667 No Yes Yes Bear*Dmg Lacerate 15 295 + AP*0.115 Yes Yes Yes Bear*(Dmg+2269) Lacerate Tick 0 StackSize * (23 + AP*0.00776) Yes No Yes Bear*Dmg Maul 30 8+AP*0.36 Yes Yes Yes Bear*(Dmg+30) Pulverize 15 Melee*1.2 + 451*StackSize No Yes Yes Bear*Dmg Thrash 25 225 + AP*0.16 Yes Yes Yes Bear*Dmg*1.5 Hard to test this one; the tooltip says a static damage, but the actual damage isn't static, it's got a range of roughly 65-80ish. Thrash Tick 0 189 + AP*0.033 Yes Yes Yes Bear*Dmg*1.5 Swipe 15 2710 + AP*0.073 No Yes Yes Bear*Dmg*1.5

Stat Functions
 Stat Benefit Str 2 AP (Strictly inferior to Agi, however, it looks like we'll still use Str on tank jewelry.) Agi 2 AP while in Cat or Bear Form, 1% Physical Crit per 324.85, 1% Dodge (pre-DR) per 243.58281085 Sta 10 Health Int 15 Mana, 1% Spell Crit per 648.91 Spr Useless to a Feral

Base Stats
• The first 20 Str gives 1 AP each.
• The first 20 Agi gives 1 AP each (but gives crit normally).
• The first 20 Sta gives 1 Heath each.
• The first 20 Int gives 1 Mana each (but gives crit normally).
• Bear Form grants 25% Sta and 120 AP, and Cat Form grants 170 AP.

Base stats of a level 85 Druid are (Health/Mana are without health/mana from Sta/Int):
 Race Str Agi Stam Int Spr Health Mana Night Elf 92 93 106 156 173 39533 18635 Worgen 99 91 106 152 172 39533 18635 Tauren 101 85 107 152 175 41509 18635 Troll 97 91 106 152 174 39533 18635
 Stat Base Value Physical Crit 7.4755% Spell Crit 1.8515% Miss 5% Dodge 4.9510%

Stat Conversions
Stat conversions for a level 85 druid are:
 Rating Rating Per %/Point Dodge 176.71899 Hit 120.109 Spell Hit 102.446 Crit 179.28 Resilience(Player Damage Taken) 276.12299 Haste 128.05701 Expertise 30.0272 Armor Penetration (removed) 48.09952 Mastery 179.28

Dodge Diminishing Returns
Dodge from Agility beyond base agility, and all dodge rating, is subject to diminishing returns. (TODO: Double-check that base agility's dodge still isn't diminished) The formula for DR for Bear Dodge is as follows:

$\frac{1}{x'} = \frac{1}{116.890707}+\frac{0.9720}{x}}$

Where $x'$ is the avoidance % from DR-subject sources, after DR.
And $x$ is the avoidance % from DR-subject sources, before DR.
In both cases, x and x', use the % of dodge, not the fraction (ie, 30, not 0.30)

The post-DR value should then be added to the non-DR-subject dodge, to find your total dodge. As before, bosses negate 2.4% of your dodge (TODO: Double-check that 2.4%).

Feral Combat Perks
Choosing a Feral spec grants the following additional benefits:
• Mangle
• Aggression: Grants a passive 25% AP bonus, at all times, regardless of form, stacking with everything.
• Vengeance: Increases your AP by 5% of the damage you take, up to a maximum of 10% of your HP. See Below.
• Feral Instinct: Reduced chance to be detected while stealthed.
• Mastery - Razor Claws: While in Cat Form, bleed damage is increased by 20%. Each point of Mastery increases bleed damage by an additional 2.5%. Partial points of mastery are counted.
• Mastery - Savage Defender: Increases the damage absorbed by your Savage Defense ability by 32%. Each point of Mastery increases the absorb by an additional 4%. Partial points of mastery are counted. See Below.

Vengeance
Vengeance increases your AP by 5% of the damage you take. Here's how it works in more detail:

1. When you first take damage, you immediately gain Vengeance, equal to 5% of the damage taken. From then on, Vengeance 'ticks' every 2 seconds.
2. When it ticks, it checks how much damage you've taken since the last time it ticked, and does either step 3, or step 4:
3. If DamageTaken > 0, new Vengeance is set to: [OldVengeance*0.95 + DamageTaken*0.05]
4. If DamageTaken = 0, new Vengeance is set to: [OldVengeance - MaxVengeance*0.1] (Where MaxVengeance is the highest this stack of Vengeance has ever been)

Some analysis of this:
• This has the interesting effect that when you're taking steady/constant X damage per tick (2sec), your Vengeance stack approaches X AP.
• This also has a concerning effect that if you're fighting a boss that attacks slower than 2.0 (ie, they're a standard 2.0 attack speed, and you've slowed them with Infected Wounds or similar), then some of the ticks are going to line up between melee attacks, and you're going to suffer that large -10% decay. That's going to significantly lower the average Vengeance AP on any slow-attacking bosses.
• Another concern: assuming the boss isn't incredibly fast hitting (1sec or faster), every time you dodge/miss, that's a tick of no damage taken, so -10% decay. That means that avoidance will be detrimental to threat by a small amount. (However, remember, avoidance also increases your rage income, so that may be offset somewhat/all)

Savage Defense
Savage Defense procs 50% of the time on crits, granting a shield of 35% of AP. With feral spec, that is increased to 46.2%, and mastery rating increases that further. This amount is very significant in dungeons.
Melee, Mangle, Maul (Init), Maul (Cleave), Lacerate (Initial), Thrash (Initial), and Swipe are able to proc Savage Defense.
Lacerate (Tick), Thrash (Tick), Feral Faerie Fire, and Fury Swipes are not able to proc Savage Defense.

Wild Mushroom
Finally, a bit about our level 85 spell, Wild Mushroom. While not typically regarded as a feral ability, it does have some uses, and is a rather complex pair of spells.
• It's made up of two spells, "Wild Mushroom" and "Wild Mushroom: Detonate".
• When activated, turns your cursor into a small AoE targeting circle, which you can click to cast.
• Wild Mushroom has a 40yd range, 0.5sec cast, 0.5sec GCD, no cooldown, requires LoS, and costs 2049 mana at lvl85. Cast is affected by haste, unsure if GCD is.
• Wild Mushroom: Detonate has 40yd range, instant cast, NO GCD, 10sec cooldown, does not require LoS, no mana cost. You cannot cast it if you have no Mushrooms out.
• Mushrooms are immediately visible, targetable, but do not aggro hostile mobs (this is a change since beta). Visually, there are 3 different models of 'shrooms: short purple, medium green/orange, and tall red. You can hide gnomes under the medium and tall ones.
• After 6 seconds, the 'shroom turns invisible.
• You can have up to 3 mushrooms out. If you place more, the first one just disappears.
• After 5min, they will despawn, without exploding.
• The explosion hits everything within 10yd.
• They explode only from casting Detonate; mobs getting close to them or killing them will not make them explode.
• Wild Mushroom benefits from, but does not consume (probably a bug) Clearcasting.
• Wild Mushroom: Detonate does not consume Clearcasting (since it's free).
• Wild Mushroom will not proc Clearcasting. However, Wild Mushroom: Detonate will.
• Damage: 718 + (SP*0.464). Does not scale with AP. Crits at 150% for Feral, based on spell crit rate. Damage is based on spellpower at the time that you cast Detonate. It will not miss/resist.
• When Detonated, immediately makes all of your mushrooms within 40yd explode, both visible and invisible.
• Detonation seems to happen a split second after you cast Detonate, allowing for some trickery with macros: Plant some 'shrooms while out of combat. Equip Caster gear. Macro /cast Wild Mushroom: Detonate, /cast Bear Form, /equipset Bear. 'Shrooms will explode, doing damage with your caster gear spellpower, you'll equip your bear gear, and enter bear form, plus threat from the 'shrooms will benefit from your bear form threat multiplier. In my (mostly 264/277) boomkin gear, with 2000 spellpower, this results in about 20k threat on all mobs in a pack, to start combat. Some convoluted setup, but it doesn't actually take long in practice.

Important Topics Still TODO
• Dissection of All Bear Abilities
• Talents
• Ability Damage/Threat Per Rage/GCD at Different Gear Levels

Last edited by Astrylian : 01/20/11 at 11:19 PM.

Rawr!

 12/06/10, 9:32 PM #2 ♦ Carebare ::stare::     carebare Tauren Druid   Mal'Ganis Bumping this just so that it's first page for responses. (Then I'll delete this post). i miss raiding with carebare :< she makes me feel like i am not the only person that hates everyone Aldriana: I am an asshole, it just so happens that some of my colleagues are even *bigger* assholes. [R] [85:Neux:2]: i hear if you die on Good Friday they are going to make it where you can't get rezzed until easter sunday Khazal: Yeah, I don't know about Magic Rainbow Unicorn Land, but here in Reality, Rhyolith is the worst encounter Blizzard has ever designed.
 12/11/10, 11:31 AM #3 dorkasaur2 Glass Joe   droodalt Tauren Druid   Bloodscalp Stamina now gives 14 hp per for all classes at level 85. Why? My guess is bug, but I'm gonna make it a feature for the next Toskk's TTL patch since its persisted for well over a month after my bug report on the beta about it. Haven't extensively looked into it but I think you get a +0.8 hp per stam from every level between 81 and 85. As a result of this, and presumably beta tweaks, the base hp of classes is now off. I'm getting 41249 for tauren and 39273 for trolls (I'll double check but I believe all non tauren druids have the same base hp) if you subtract out base stam * 14. I think the OP did something a little different on value of base stam, but his formula is still using outdated beta info.
 12/14/10, 7:26 PM #4 Moopies Glass Joe     Thoaee Tauren Druid   Twisting Nether (EU) In the original post: "...Mushrooms are immediately visible, targetable, and aggro hostile mobs. ..." The tooltip states they become invisible after 6 seconds. But I also remember reading somewhere that they will be invisible to enemy mobs, only when detonated will they agro them. Which is why I started using them to cause some initial threat on mobs in normals and heroics. (build 4.0.3b) I have just double checked if this still works in the latest hotfix (dec 13th) and it still does. On a level 84 mob a single mushroom generates 791 threat with my current gear and stats. Using 3 shrooms generates 2414 threat. I will do some more testing tomorrow to see the threat generated on a naked/ unspecced bear.
12/15/10, 10:14 AM   #5
Royalite
Von Kaiser

Night Elf Druid

Aggramar
 Pulling with 'shrooms like that can be difficult, due to them aggroing the mobs when they're cast. If the pack is a patrol, you can just lay them in the patrol path. If not, and you're a night elf, you can do the following: Cast 4 shrooms at the pack, within their melee range. The first one will get meleed immediately, and the mobs will will aggro on you. After the 4th one is cast, Shadowmeld. Mobs will reset and run back to their spots, but 'shrooms will be invisible by then. Proceed as above.
I can confirm as well. This is not the current behavoir of the mushroom ability. I am able to cast three mushrooms on patrols, bosses, etc without aggro-ing. Detonation of the mushrooms will cause aggro.

As I understood although I haven't tested it that the six second invisibility is a pvp/arena/BG type behavoir related more to PCs than NPCs.

Further if professions are up for consideration, I saw Avalanche on the list. I was trying to look into the numbers and the behavoir of a Grounded Plasma Shield failure with triggers Plamsa Misfire and Painful Shock. Even the failure might be worth looking into. It is 40 yards. The shock does no damage, but will taunt all targets to attack you for 4 sec. The Plasma Misfire tooltip says it lasts 10 seconds. I assume the Painful shock triggers when a mob is within the 40 yards.

Last edited by Royalite : 12/15/10 at 10:37 AM.

 12/15/10, 6:53 PM #6 Kintoun Glass Joe   Kintoun Tauren Druid   Blackrock Finally was able to sorta use the new Rawr. Still cannot load my character but thats a separate discussion. I hand selected all my gear from scratch and noticed Rawr sets expertise as a VERY high value. Higher than AGI actually. And equal too after dodge cap is hit. Does anyone know the reasoning for this? Parry haste no longer exists and threat is a non-issue. I reforged everything on my bear to dodge, and gemmed completely for stam and felt like a god tanking. And had no threat issues other than up to 2s into the pull. Maybe the threat weight is too high in Rawr? And how is expertise 75% a mitigation stat? My best guess is that Rawr still has parry haste enabled.
12/15/10, 11:37 PM   #7
Esfera
Glass Joe

Night Elf Druid

Gorgonnash
 Originally Posted by Kintoun Finally was able to sorta use the new Rawr. Still cannot load my character but thats a separate discussion. I hand selected all my gear from scratch and noticed Rawr sets expertise as a VERY high value. Higher than AGI actually. And equal too after dodge cap is hit. Does anyone know the reasoning for this? Parry haste no longer exists and threat is a non-issue. I reforged everything on my bear to dodge, and gemmed completely for stam and felt like a god tanking. And had no threat issues other than up to 2s into the pull. Maybe the threat weight is too high in Rawr? And how is expertise 75% a mitigation stat? My best guess is that Rawr still has parry haste enabled.
The less the mobs dodges the more SD procs we get. In a way expertise & hit equal mitigation.

12/16/10, 12:43 AM   #8
Nosajtpno
Glass Joe

Troll Druid

Dalaran
 Originally Posted by Esfera The less the mobs dodges the more SD procs we get. In a way expertise & hit equal mitigation.
Not at all, crit is totally independent of hit and expertise. If you have 50% crit and the enemy has a 50% change to dodge, then half of your swings will be crits and the other half will be dodged. If you then eliminate the enemy's dodge change, half your swings will be crits and the other half will be hits. Either way, half your swings are crits, so you get no extra SD procs.

EDIT: typo

 12/16/10, 2:35 AM #9 Esfera Glass Joe   Esfera Night Elf Druid   Gorgonnash I'm not positive but aren't most yellow attacks on a 2 roll system?
12/16/10, 2:40 AM   #10
MatsT
Don Flamenco

Night Elf Druid

Frostmane (EU)
 Originally Posted by Nosajtpno Not at all, crit is totally independent of hit and expertise. If you have 50% crit and the enemy has a 50% change to dodge, then half of your swings will be crits and the other half will be dodged. If you then eliminate the enemy's dodge change, half your swings will be crits and the other half will be hits. Either way, half your swings are crits, so you get no extra SD procs. EDIT: typo
This is only true for white auto swings, not special attacks. Expertise's impact on SD is still very marginal though, crit and mastery would affect it much more to be sure. The value of expertise as a survival stat comes almost solemnly from an assumption that bosses do parry haste. Since most lvl 85 bosses appears to not parry haste and none have been proven to do so we might want to change the simulations.

Expertise is probably still the best threat stat, and has the added bonus of helping against awkward double parry pulls.

 12/17/10, 7:05 AM #11 Conq[SUN] Von Kaiser   Zewoc Tauren Druid   Ravencrest (EU) If Expertise is higher valued that expected you have probalby enabled "Taget Parry Hastes" on Options tab.
 12/25/10, 2:41 AM #12 nesf Von Kaiser   Uilliam Orc Warlock   Argent Dawn (EU) Using my own stats and gear to work things out, this is to answer a fellow tank's question about whether it was better threat wise to build three stacks of Lacerate and then automatically Pulverise or whether it was better to let the stacks runs, use Lacerate or Mangle as filler, and apply Pulverise only to keep the buff up. Hopefully some others here might find this useful. Using threat values from first post in this thread: Lacerate: 1298 + 457 dps Lacerate Threat: 8105 initial + 1371 per tick Pulverise: 2543-3053 x 1.2 + 564 x 3 (2798 avg melee hit) (4490 dmg assuming 3 stacks) Pulverise Threat: 13,470 6 second window: Lacerate tick x 6 = 24,678 Threat Lacerate tick x 6 with Lacerate applied every GCD = 57,098 Pulverise followed by Lacerate x 3: 0: Pulverise 1.5: Lacerate 2.5: Lacerate Tick 3: Lacerate 3.5: Lacerate Tick x 2 4.5: Lacerate + Lacerate Tick x 2 5.5 Lacerate Tick x 3 13,470 from Pulverise 10,968 from Lacerate Ticks 24,315 from Lacerate Applications 48,753 Threat Lacerate on initial application and Mangle provide almost identical levels of threat so I've assumed 4 x Lacerate over the 6 seconds. Leaving Lacerate run and spamming Lacerate/Mangle seems to provide 17% more threat than Pulverising every 3 stacks of Lacerate. Letting Lacerate run and spamming Lacerate even generates more dps, never mind if Mangle is being used as well. So quite clearly, using Lacerate/Mangle as filler and only refreshing Pulverise when the buff is close to dropping off is the better single target rotation. Assuming enough rage of course. Edit: Of course, this completely ignores the issue of rage generation and is purely a simplistic analysis of threat per GCD/rage since both options cost the same amount of rage. It assumes that 10 rage per second is being generated on average during the fight to allow our basic single target abilities to be spammed every GCD.* *Not strictly the case since most of the time we'll get a free Mangle proc during the 6 seconds of Lacerate ticks meaning we'll need (at a guess) only about 8-9 rage per second to sustain the spam Lacerate/Mangle rotation. Last edited by nesf : 12/25/10 at 3:03 AM.
 12/25/10, 12:54 PM #13 Astrylian Rawr     Celestrylian Night Elf Monk   Stormrage Just noticed that the OP hadn't been updated for the buff to Mangle Bear. It's so strong now that it's never a good idea to delay Mangle usage at all. Also, Rawr will currently compare different rotation priorities like that. Rawr!
 12/25/10, 6:20 PM #14 Lazaren Glass Joe   Agamarn Night Elf Druid   Uther I know this is a difficult question to answer, but at what point does mastery become better than dodge? Any math wizards willing to tackle this question?
 12/25/10, 7:21 PM #15 Astrylian Rawr     Celestrylian Night Elf Monk   Stormrage Rawr can tell you this. There is no 'point', as it depends on a wide multitude of factors (primarily how hard the target is hitting you. Rawr!

 Elitist Jerks [Feral-Bear] Theorycraft (Rawr.Bear)