This thread is for collaborating on Bear theorycraft. I'd like to have one central thread for intelligent discussion that advances the realm of theorycraft for bears. I'm striving to have Rawr.Bear as accurate and complete as possible for Cataclysm release, and have been doing significant research on the formulae involved. This thread is for sharing and peer-reviewing that theorycraft, and seeing what others are doing. While the focus is on Bear, some other specs' data that's closely related will creep in. Please do not post unless you have something useful to contribute.


Damage and Threat Formulae
I'll start with the damage and threat formulae that I've reverse engineered so far. This is all based on extensive testing, not just looking at tooltips (which are frequently wrong). This is up to date as of build 13195:

	Ability	Rage Cost	Average Damage	Affected by Mangle	Affected by Armor	Affected by Master Shapeshifter	Threat (Bear=3.0)	Notes
Non-Damage Abilities	+3 Rage (on Dodge)	-3					15/TargetCount	(5 per Rage gained)
	+5 Rage (on Crit)	-5					25/TargetCount	(5 per Rage gained)
	Enrage Initial	-20					100/TargetCount	(5 per Rage gained)
	Enrage Tick	-1					Bear*5/TargetCount	(Bear*5 per Rage gained)
	Primal Madness (Enrage or Berserk)	-12					60/TargetCount	(5 per Rage gained)
	iLotP Heal	0					0
	Clearcast	0					Bear*10/TargetCount
	Furor	-10					0
	Demoralizing Roar	10					Bear*12/TargetCount
	Skull Bash	1					0
	Feral Charge	5					Bear*40
	Bash	10					Bear*96
	Challenging Roar	15					Bear*98/TargetCount
	Barkskin	0					Bear*58/TargetCount
	Survival Instincts	0					Bear*20/TargetCount
	Berserk	0					Bear*60/TargetCount
Damage Abilities	Melee	0	(AP/14 * 2.5) + (WeaponDPS * 2.5)	No	Yes	Yes	Bear*Dmg
	Fury Swipes	0	Melee*3.1	No	Yes	Yes	Bear*Dmg
	Thorns	0	214 + (BearFormAP or SP of casting druid) * 0.168	No	No	No	Bear*Dmg	Yes, it actually uses the AP you would have in bear form.
	Shroom	0	718 + (SP*0.464)	No	No	No	Dmg	You *can* equip caster gear, then macro /equipset bear gear after Detonate, and get the SP multiplier
	Shroom+BearForm	0	718 + (SP*0.464)	No	No	No	Bear*Dmg	You *can* macro bear form after Detonate, and get the bear form multiplier
	Shroom Detonate	0	0	No	No	No	85	Yes, it's weird, but Detonate gives 85 threat to all mobs you're in combat with, regardless of whether they're hit by a shroom explosion. Does not get the bear multiplier
	Faerie Fire	0	1+AP*0.15	No	No	No	Bear*(Dmg+774 + (48*FeralAggression))	Oddly, you don't get the Feral Aggression bonus when you initiate combat with the Faerie Fire. In the formula, FeralAggression is the number of talent points in FeralAggression
	Avalanche	0	~500	No	No	No	Bear*Dmg
	Mangle	15	Melee*3.6 + 667	No	Yes	Yes	Bear*Dmg
	Lacerate	15	295 + AP*0.115	Yes	Yes	Yes	Bear*(Dmg+2269)
	Lacerate Tick	0	StackSize * (23 + AP*0.00776)	Yes	No	Yes	Bear*Dmg
	Maul	30	8+AP*0.36	Yes	Yes	Yes	Bear*(Dmg+30)
	Pulverize	15	Melee*1.2 + 451*StackSize	No	Yes	Yes	Bear*Dmg
	Thrash	25	225 + AP*0.16	Yes	Yes	Yes	Bear*Dmg*1.5	Hard to test this one; the tooltip says a static damage, but the actual damage isn't static, it's got a range of roughly 65-80ish.
	Thrash Tick	0	189 + AP*0.033	Yes	Yes	Yes	Bear*Dmg*1.5
	Swipe	15	2710 + AP*0.073	No	Yes	Yes	Bear*Dmg*1.5

Stat Functions

Stat	Benefit
Str	2 AP (Strictly inferior to Agi, however, it looks like we'll still use Str on tank jewelry.)
Agi	2 AP while in Cat or Bear Form, 1% Physical Crit per 324.85, 1% Dodge (pre-DR) per 243.58281085
Sta	10 Health
Int	15 Mana, 1% Spell Crit per 648.91
Spr	Useless to a Feral

Base Stats

• The first 20 Str gives 1 AP each.
• The first 20 Agi gives 1 AP each (but gives crit normally).
• The first 20 Sta gives 1 Heath each.
• The first 20 Int gives 1 Mana each (but gives crit normally).
• Bear Form grants 25% Sta and 120 AP, and Cat Form grants 170 AP.

Base stats of a level 85 Druid are (Health/Mana are without health/mana from Sta/Int):

Race	Str	Agi	Stam	Int	Spr	Health	Mana
Night Elf	92	93	106	156	173	39533	18635
Worgen	99	91	106	152	172	39533	18635
Tauren	101	85	107	152	175	41509	18635
Troll	97	91	106	152	174	39533	18635

Stat	Base Value
Physical Crit	7.4755%
Spell Crit	1.8515%
Miss	5%
Dodge	4.9510%

Stat Conversions
Stat conversions for a level 85 druid are:

Rating	Rating Per %/Point
Dodge	176.71899
Hit	120.109
Spell Hit	102.446
Crit	179.28
Resilience(Player Damage Taken)	276.12299
Haste	128.05701
Expertise	30.0272
Armor Penetration (removed)	48.09952
Mastery	179.28

Dodge Diminishing Returns
Dodge from Agility beyond base agility, and all dodge rating, is subject to diminishing returns. (TODO: Double-check that base agility's dodge still isn't diminished) The formula for DR for Bear Dodge is as follows:



Where is the avoidance % from DR-subject sources, after DR.
And is the avoidance % from DR-subject sources, before DR.
In both cases, x and x', use the % of dodge, not the fraction (ie, 30, not 0.30)

The post-DR value should then be added to the non-DR-subject dodge, to find your total dodge. As before, bosses negate 2.4% of your dodge (TODO: Double-check that 2.4%).


Feral Combat Perks
Choosing a Feral spec grants the following additional benefits:

• Mangle
• Aggression: Grants a passive 25% AP bonus, at all times, regardless of form, stacking with everything.
• Vengeance: Increases your AP by 5% of the damage you take, up to a maximum of 10% of your HP. See Below.
• Feral Instinct: Reduced chance to be detected while stealthed.
• Mastery - Razor Claws: While in Cat Form, bleed damage is increased by 20%. Each point of Mastery increases bleed damage by an additional 2.5%. Partial points of mastery are counted.
• Mastery - Savage Defender: Increases the damage absorbed by your Savage Defense ability by 32%. Each point of Mastery increases the absorb by an additional 4%. Partial points of mastery are counted. See Below.

Vengeance
Vengeance increases your AP by 5% of the damage you take. Here's how it works in more detail:

1. When you first take damage, you immediately gain Vengeance, equal to 5% of the damage taken. From then on, Vengeance 'ticks' every 2 seconds.
2. When it ticks, it checks how much damage you've taken since the last time it ticked, and does either step 3, or step 4:
3. If DamageTaken > 0, new Vengeance is set to: [OldVengeance*0.95 + DamageTaken*0.05]
4. If DamageTaken = 0, new Vengeance is set to: [OldVengeance - MaxVengeance*0.1] (Where MaxVengeance is the highest this stack of Vengeance has ever been)

Some analysis of this:

• This has the interesting effect that when you're taking steady/constant X damage per tick (2sec), your Vengeance stack approaches X AP.
• This also has a concerning effect that if you're fighting a boss that attacks slower than 2.0 (ie, they're a standard 2.0 attack speed, and you've slowed them with Infected Wounds or similar), then some of the ticks are going to line up between melee attacks, and you're going to suffer that large -10% decay. That's going to significantly lower the average Vengeance AP on any slow-attacking bosses.
• Another concern: assuming the boss isn't incredibly fast hitting (1sec or faster), every time you dodge/miss, that's a tick of no damage taken, so -10% decay. That means that avoidance will be detrimental to threat by a small amount. (However, remember, avoidance also increases your rage income, so that may be offset somewhat/all)

Savage Defense
Savage Defense procs 50% of the time on crits, granting a shield of 35% of AP. With feral spec, that is increased to 46.2%, and mastery rating increases that further. This amount is very significant in dungeons.
Melee, Mangle, Maul (Init), Maul (Cleave), Lacerate (Initial), Thrash (Initial), and Swipe are able to proc Savage Defense.
Lacerate (Tick), Thrash (Tick), Feral Faerie Fire, and Fury Swipes are not able to proc Savage Defense.


Wild Mushroom
Finally, a bit about our level 85 spell, Wild Mushroom. While not typically regarded as a feral ability, it does have some uses, and is a rather complex pair of spells.

• It's made up of two spells, "Wild Mushroom" and "Wild Mushroom: Detonate".
• When activated, turns your cursor into a small AoE targeting circle, which you can click to cast.
• Wild Mushroom has a 40yd range, 0.5sec cast, 0.5sec GCD, no cooldown, requires LoS, and costs 2049 mana at lvl85. Cast is affected by haste, unsure if GCD is.
• Wild Mushroom: Detonate has 40yd range, instant cast, NO GCD, 10sec cooldown, does not require LoS, no mana cost. You cannot cast it if you have no Mushrooms out.
• Mushrooms are immediately visible, targetable, but do not aggro hostile mobs (this is a change since beta). Visually, there are 3 different models of 'shrooms: short purple, medium green/orange, and tall red. You can hide gnomes under the medium and tall ones.
• After 6 seconds, the 'shroom turns invisible.
• You can have up to 3 mushrooms out. If you place more, the first one just disappears.
• After 5min, they will despawn, without exploding.
• The explosion hits everything within 10yd.
• They explode only from casting Detonate; mobs getting close to them or killing them will not make them explode.
• Wild Mushroom benefits from, but does not consume (probably a bug) Clearcasting.
• Wild Mushroom: Detonate does not consume Clearcasting (since it's free).
• Wild Mushroom will not proc Clearcasting. However, Wild Mushroom: Detonate will.
• Damage: 718 + (SP*0.464). Does not scale with AP. Crits at 150% for Feral, based on spell crit rate. Damage is based on spellpower at the time that you cast Detonate. It will not miss/resist.
• When Detonated, immediately makes all of your mushrooms within 40yd explode, both visible and invisible.
• Detonation seems to happen a split second after you cast Detonate, allowing for some trickery with macros: Plant some 'shrooms while out of combat. Equip Caster gear. Macro /cast Wild Mushroom: Detonate, /cast Bear Form, /equipset Bear. 'Shrooms will explode, doing damage with your caster gear spellpower, you'll equip your bear gear, and enter bear form, plus threat from the 'shrooms will benefit from your bear form threat multiplier. In my (mostly 264/277) boomkin gear, with 2000 spellpower, this results in about 20k threat on all mobs in a pack, to start combat. Some convoluted setup, but it doesn't actually take long in practice.

Important Topics Still TODO

• Dissection of All Bear Abilities
• Talents
• Ability Damage/Threat Per Rage/GCD at Different Gear Levels

Stamina now gives 14 hp per for all classes at level 85. Why? My guess is bug, but I'm gonna make it a feature for the next Toskk's TTL patch since its persisted for well over a month after my bug report on the beta about it. Haven't extensively looked into it but I think you get a +0.8 hp per stam from every level between 81 and 85. As a result of this, and presumably beta tweaks, the base hp of classes is now off. I'm getting 41249 for tauren and 39273 for trolls (I'll double check but I believe all non tauren druids have the same base hp) if you subtract out base stam * 14. I think the OP did something a little different on value of base stam, but his formula is still using outdated beta info.

In the original post:
"...Mushrooms are immediately visible, targetable, and aggro hostile mobs. ..."

The tooltip states they become invisible after 6 seconds. But I also remember reading somewhere that they will be invisible to enemy mobs, only when detonated will they agro them. Which is why I started using them to cause some initial threat on mobs in normals and heroics. (build 4.0.3b)

I have just double checked if this still works in the latest hotfix (dec 13th) and it still does.
On a level 84 mob a single mushroom generates 791 threat with my current gear and stats. Using 3 shrooms generates 2414 threat. I will do some more testing tomorrow to see the threat generated on a naked/ unspecced bear.

I can confirm as well. This is not the current behavoir of the mushroom ability. I am able to cast three mushrooms on patrols, bosses, etc without aggro-ing. Detonation of the mushrooms will cause aggro.

As I understood although I haven't tested it that the six second invisibility is a pvp/arena/BG type behavoir related more to PCs than NPCs.

Further if professions are up for consideration, I saw Avalanche on the list. I was trying to look into the numbers and the behavoir of a Grounded Plasma Shield failure with triggers Plamsa Misfire and Painful Shock. Even the failure might be worth looking into. It is 40 yards. The shock does no damage, but will taunt all targets to attack you for 4 sec. The Plasma Misfire tooltip says it lasts 10 seconds. I assume the Painful shock triggers when a mob is within the 40 yards.

The less the mobs dodges the more SD procs we get. In a way expertise & hit equal mitigation.

Not at all, crit is totally independent of hit and expertise. If you have 50% crit and the enemy has a 50% change to dodge, then half of your swings will be crits and the other half will be dodged. If you then eliminate the enemy's dodge change, half your swings will be crits and the other half will be hits. Either way, half your swings are crits, so you get no extra SD procs.

EDIT: typo

I'm not positive but aren't most yellow attacks on a 2 roll system?

If Expertise is higher valued that expected you have probalby enabled "Taget Parry Hastes" on Options tab.

Using my own stats and gear to work things out, this is to answer a fellow tank's question about whether it was better threat wise to build three stacks of Lacerate and then automatically Pulverise or whether it was better to let the stacks runs, use Lacerate or Mangle as filler, and apply Pulverise only to keep the buff up. Hopefully some others here might find this useful.

Using threat values from first post in this thread:

Lacerate: 1298 + 457 dps
Lacerate Threat: 8105 initial + 1371 per tick

Pulverise: 2543-3053 x 1.2 + 564 x 3 (2798 avg melee hit) (4490 dmg assuming 3 stacks)
Pulverise Threat: 13,470


6 second window:

Lacerate tick x 6 = 24,678 Threat
Lacerate tick x 6 with Lacerate applied every GCD = 57,098

Pulverise followed by Lacerate x 3:

0: Pulverise
1.5: Lacerate
2.5: Lacerate Tick
3: Lacerate
3.5: Lacerate Tick x 2
4.5: Lacerate + Lacerate Tick x 2
5.5 Lacerate Tick x 3

13,470 from Pulverise
10,968 from Lacerate Ticks
24,315 from Lacerate Applications

48,753 Threat



Lacerate on initial application and Mangle provide almost identical levels of threat so I've assumed 4 x Lacerate over the 6 seconds.


Leaving Lacerate run and spamming Lacerate/Mangle seems to provide 17% more threat than Pulverising every 3 stacks of Lacerate. Letting Lacerate run and spamming Lacerate even generates more dps, never mind if Mangle is being used as well. So quite clearly, using Lacerate/Mangle as filler and only refreshing Pulverise when the buff is close to dropping off is the better single target rotation. Assuming enough rage of course.


Edit: Of course, this completely ignores the issue of rage generation and is purely a simplistic analysis of threat per GCD/rage since both options cost the same amount of rage. It assumes that 10 rage per second is being generated on average during the fight to allow our basic single target abilities to be spammed every GCD.*

*Not strictly the case since most of the time we'll get a free Mangle proc during the 6 seconds of Lacerate ticks meaning we'll need (at a guess) only about 8-9 rage per second to sustain the spam Lacerate/Mangle rotation.

Just noticed that the OP hadn't been updated for the buff to Mangle Bear. It's so strong now that it's never a good idea to delay Mangle usage at all. Also, Rawr will currently compare different rotation priorities like that.

Rawr can tell you this. There is no 'point', as it depends on a wide multitude of factors (primarily how hard the target is hitting you.