Evidence for 1: Celestial alignment causes moonfire to also apply sunfire, which wouldn't make sense if they were mutually exclusive (though this still could be a special case).

Evidence for 2: The new eclipse causes starfire to refresh moonfire. On live, every mechanic that "refreshes" a DoT also takes a new snapshot of your stats.

No, glyph of starfire uses a different mechanic: it extends moonfire. Every "refresh" mechanic renews the DoT at full duration with a new snapshot. Every "extension" mechanic increases the existing duration by some stated amount with the old snapshot.

The new eclipse, as worded, uses the "refresh" mechanic, not the "extension" mechanic.

Nevertheless, no other class has an Eclipse-style mechanic. I will stick to the assumption that a Starfire or Wrath-driven extension will not change the tick damage due to a gain or loss of Eclipse until it is proven or disproven in beta.

What is "eclipse-style"? Many classes can gain a temporary damage bonus, which is the relevant aspect of eclipse in this case. Feral has an ability (tiger's fury) that increases physical damage by 15% for 6 seconds. Meanwhile, their main DoT (rip) has both extension (glyph of bloodletting) and refresh (blood in the water) mechanics and these behave exactly as I described above with respect to this 15% damage increase.

Leaving aside that question and switching tacks slightly, I put together a rough first-order approximation of Shooting Stars being 20% chance on dot crit. If I invalidate my earlier assumption that Moonfire and Sunfire are mutually exclusive, the proc rate will then be similar to live for a 20% crit chance, with increased crit raising the proc rate slightly. However, crit will still be far and away our worst stat thanks to the mastery scaling change.

Edit: I reprogrammed the simulator to follow your interpretation of the second scenario, with the dot effect gaining/losing Eclipse on refresh, and using Erdluf's original cast sequence of Sunfire when you hit Solar and Moonfire when you leave it, and our secondary stat order now goes to Crit > Mastery > Haste. It makes me think that my first-order approximation isn't correct, but the increased dot uptime definitely increases Shooting Stars procs, as originally conjectured.

Edit 2: I completed a higher-order approximation, and the Crit > Mastery > Haste stat order stands, but they're actually really close. In particular, haste will surpass mastery below the NG GCD cap. It's definitely a lot more interesting than the current stat spread on live.

In it's actual implementation
Dream of Cenarius is always worse than Disentaglement.

- Using Cataclysm numbers for healing spells and health pool.
- Assuming we take Nature's swiftness and increase an healing touch effect by 50%

Best Healing Touch = 55k (37k crit +50%)
With Dream of Cenarius (+30%) -> 55k+16k(30% of 55k) = 72k
With Disentaglement (20% of max hp) -> 55k+30k (20% of 153k health pool) = 86k

Any amount healing touch will heal, paired with Disentanglement you will always get +10k vs Dream of Cenarius.
The only possibility to take the talents on par is to have a maximum health pool of 80k because:
80k/100*20 = 16k + 55k Healing Touch gives a 72k healing spell.

This lead to the problem that an Healing Touch must heal a lot less because 72k means full health with a spell.
Reducing the Healing Touch power once again make Disentanglement better...etc..etc..

They can't change Dream of cenarius to be a stacking effect because it would require multiple spell casts to benefit from it.
So, expect them to remove one of the two talents or to buff Dream of Cenarius to +55% instead of +30%

nephyron,

Disentanglement is only a self heal. DoC can apparently buff any heal. 30% stronger Tranquility, or perhaps 30% stronger Swiftmend (including Efflo) should beat Disentanglement if you are using Cata numbers. Even 30% of WG could be close to 20% of your health.

DoC has a higher opportunity cost (unless auto-attack counts as a melee ability), but for Resto DoC looks like a clear winner, unless you need to break roots (so Disentanglement for PvP, but DoC for most PvE).

So I did a little math on Incarnation and our Chosen of Elune form. Because of the way it currently affects our energy regen, I discovered that it is actually a DPS loss at face value due to the loss of Nature's Grace uptime. If, however, we shift to casting Starsurge only in Eclipse during the time that Chosen of Elune is up, it comes out as a very small (~1%) DPS increase overall. A bit underwhelming, to be sure. I haven't yet mathed Soul of the Forest, but I would guess that whatever flavor our new treants take, they would be a bit stronger than that.

I wrote almost the same in the previous page: Mists of Pandaria: All Specs
To make the talent incarnation valuable they should remove the "half power while in eclipse" part and maybe add back the +x% damage modifier (to make it worth for pvp cause you would still have to cast)
The balance spec continues to lack an execute phase mechanic and i hope they will pick one of the proposed talents i posted on the official forum: [Feb 15] Druid - new talents feedback - Forums - World of Warcraft

So I went back and revisited Incarnation (finally). I operated on the assumption that the Chosen of Elune form would simply double all the time while active. I also programmed Soul of the Forest into my simulator. It came out at a ~2.5% DPS increase, as compared to the revised Incarnation's ~1.6%. I haven't yet checked the possibility of doubling only outside of Eclipse, but I figure it might have a similar effect to halving during Eclipse, but of lesser magnitude. Either way, it looks like SotF is the superior option unless our treants turn into something reasonably strong.

No, I didn't set it to do that. How exactly is it going to move us instantly from Lunar to Solar with no uneclipsed casts? The way I'm reading it, when our Eclipse bar crosses 0, we get an additional 20 energy once. That leaves us a long way from the next Eclipse. How did you read it?