Moonkin Raiding - Page 117

• Hamlet · 07/08/09, 8:24 PM

Originally Posted by ehakam

Your math is solid, but I believe you have some typo's. Here's what I'm seeing (high-lighting typo's with <-).
Intuitively, this makes sense, as total damage done should be your crit $D_C$ + mean damage of your non-crits $D\frac{1-C}{C}$

Yeah, thanks, was kind of sloppy copying that from paper into Latex.

Erdluf · 07/08/09, 10:31 PM

Originally Posted by Xerophyte

For Wraths at max distance I'd expect 2-3 extra casts after the proccing cast before you swap, at least going by my own logs.

I think in 3.2 you may want to switch to SF as soon as you see NG. Of course you'll still have one extra Wrath (the one you'd queue'd before you noticed NG).

By switching to SF on NG, you're probably giving yourself something like a 60% chance that each Lunar Eclipse will gain an extra SF cast. You are also more likely to get the full benefit from Glyph of Starfire. The penalty is an average of a couple of extra non-Eclipse SF's during each cycle.

The big difference is that in 3.2, there is no danger that casting SF will cause you to proc the "wrong" Eclipse.

• Hamlet · 07/08/09, 10:37 PM

Originally Posted by Erdluf

I think in 3.2 you may want to switch to SF as soon as you see NG. Of course you'll still have one extra Wrath (the one you'd queue'd before you noticed NG).

By switching to SF on NG, you're probably giving yourself something like a 60% chance that each Lunar Eclipse will gain an extra SF cast. You are also more likely to get the full benefit from Glyph of Starfire. The penalty is an average of a couple of extra non-Eclipse SF's during each cycle.

The big difference is that in 3.2, there is no danger that casting SF will cause you to proc the "wrong" Eclipse.

On the face of it, probably a good idea, I think.

Xerophyte · 07/08/09, 11:42 PM

Nifty idea. The 3ish seconds it takes to cast 1 Wrath + 1 SF under NG can be very close to your Wrath travel time so you'll probably need to cast 2 SFs before concluding anything, at least for some encounters and ranges. On the other hand, with both Wraths given a chance to proc you'll only fail to get Eclipse somewhere between 25%-30% of the time (0.4 - 0.24*C for chance to crit C).

Quick and dirty ballpark assumptions for the SF on NG strategy: You do 4 seconds of SF after you see Wrath proc NG. Cycle length is 50s. Average cycle DPS is 6000. Eclipse SF spam is 6000 DPS. NG'd Wrath and Starfire Spam out of Eclipse are 4000 DPS. 50% of cycles go into Lunar from the final Solar Wraths.

50% probability: No gain or loss from your change of strategy.
37.5% probability: You gain 1s of Lunar Starfire DPS instead of Wrath DPS. (6000-4000)/50 = 40 DPS gain.
12.5% probability: You lengthen your cycle with 4ish seconds of non-Lunar Starfire DPS. You go from 6000 DPS per cycle to (6000*50 + 4000*4)/54 = 5850 DPS, a 150 DPS loss.

So, average of a 5 DPS loss, which is well within the margin of error of my simplifications. If we instead assume you can consistently determine if you got a proc or not after the first SF it's a 7.5 DPS gain, also not conclusive. More rigorous analysis would be nice, but I think we're very unlikely to see more than a 20 DPS difference between the strategies under an accurate model unless I'm overlooking some major effect, or around 0.3% of your total DPS. I doubt that it's worth the hassle of watching for NG buffs.

Poromu · 07/09/09, 12:26 AM

Originally Posted by Xerophyte

So, average of a 5 DPS loss, which is well within the margin of error of my simplifications. If we instead assume you can consistently determine if you got a proc or not after the first SF it's a 7.5 DPS gain, also not conclusive. More rigorous analysis would be nice, but I think we're very unlikely to see more than a 20 DPS difference between the strategies under an accurate model unless I'm overlooking some major effect, or around 0.3% of your total DPS. I doubt that it's worth the hassle of watching for NG buffs.

For .3%, it's worth it to me. I like the Power Aura's addon for things like this, at the moment i've only been using it to watch trinket procs and encounter specific things such as Storm Power/Shadow Crash.

• Hamlet · 07/09/09, 12:40 AM

Originally Posted by Xerophyte

We're also going to have some fun if not very significant distance-to-mob related effects at the end of our Solar Eclipses in 3.2. If we're at a distance then the last couple of Wraths we cast in Solar will be able to proc Lunar by the time they hit, which is good for Lunar's time to proc. If the last casts in Solar fail to proc Lunar then our time to proc following the dot refresh is increased by the current Wrath travel time, which is bad for time to proc.

Specifically assuming a 50% crit chance and a 2.5 second travel time causing the 2 last Wraths in Solar hitting late enough to proc Lunar gives:

Early Lunar (average TTP = 0s after dot refresh): 51% of the time
Late Lunar (average TTP = 1/.3 +2.5 $\approx$ ~5.8s after dot refresh): 49% of the time.
Average TTP: ~2.9s.

Assuming no Wrath travel time and no Wraths from Solar hitting late enough to proc Lunar -- melee range, in effect -- gives a TTP of ~3.3 seconds in the same scenario. It's not a very significant difference, but it might be worth taking into account when designing a model.

Looking back at this, I don't think it matters. One way to look at is that all the Wrath travel-time terms will cancel.

Another way to look at is that the following three things are always true:
1) You get a constant amount of Solar uptime regardless of distance. It's simply as many casts as you can fit before it fades. They might hit the boss earlier or later, but total damage done by the Solar Wraths won't vary with distance.
2) TTP is independent of travel time. Solar is going to fade and Wraths are going to keep hitting the boss. The split between Eclipsed and uneclipsed Wraths that arrive during this phase varies with travel time, but that doesn't affect proc chance.
3) You spend [TTP] time casting uneclipsed Wraths, all of which will hit the boss eventually. So total damage done in pre-Lunar is again independent of travel time.

So distance shifts the application some of your damage forward in time, but won't affect the total damage you "do" with your Solar and pre-Lunar execution time.

This isn't taking into account the Nature's Grace-watching idea, which may theoretically favor short travel times.

Xerophyte · 07/09/09, 1:16 AM

Originally Posted by Arawethion

So distance shifts the application some of your damage forward in time, but won't affect the total damage you "do" with your Solar and pre-Lunar execution time.

Well, you're right in a world that only has Wrath and Starfire in it. However, I can use travel time to attempt to substitute the un-Eclipsed Wraths you'd cast after the proccing Wrath for more damaging dot refreshes if I'm at range, without affecting my TTP. In melee this would be impossible.

I was specifically and admittedly not very clearly trying to account for the benefit of getting Lunar procs in the final Solar Wrath casts that would trigger during the dot refresh phase, thus randomly making your post-Solar dot refreshes replace un-Eclipsed Wraths. NG watching follows the same principle; come to think of it the optimal strategy is probably to wait to refresh dots specifically in your first NG following Solar Eclipse ending.

• Hamlet · 07/09/09, 1:44 AM

Originally Posted by Xerophyte

Well, you're right in a world that only has Wrath and Starfire in it. However, I can use travel time to attempt to substitute the un-Eclipsed Wraths you'd cast after the proccing Wrath for more damaging dot refreshes if I'm at range, without affecting my TTP. In melee this would be impossible.

I was specifically and admittedly not very clearly trying to account for the benefit of getting Lunar procs in the final Solar Wrath casts that would trigger during the dot refresh phase, thus randomly making your post-Solar dot refreshes replace un-Eclipsed Wraths. NG watching follows the same principle; come to think of it the optimal strategy is probably to wait to refresh dots specifically in your first NG following Solar Eclipse ending.

Yeah. Even now, I've developed a sort of semi-conscious habit of alternating Wrath with instants during pre-Eclipse for a similar reason. Waiting for NG procs actually makes that a more sound idea even in 3.1. I think the same principle works in 3.2

Will have to think about how to work this idea into the modeling at some point.

Check the question I just posted on embarAssed--I should move that haste discussion here from the BB as soon I can sum it up in some coherent way.

Lord BEEF · 07/09/09, 12:29 PM

I think with our nuke damage increased to due much higher eclipse time in 3.2, there will probably be quite a few fights where it makes sense to only cast dots while moving.

This is hard to model but take a fight where you have to move roughly every 10-15 seconds (it's not hard to think of a few of these on existing content) and I could see it coming out on top.

• Hamlet · 07/09/09, 12:48 PM

Originally Posted by Lord BEEF

I think with our nuke damage increased to due much higher eclipse time in 3.2, there will probably be quite a few fights where it makes sense to only cast dots while moving.

This is hard to model but take a fight where you have to move roughly every 10-15 seconds (it's not hard to think of a few of these on existing content) and I could see it coming out on top.

This is somewhat true now on fights with very predictable interrupts (Flame Jets, Ground Tremor). If you keep an eye on the timers, you can hold off DoT's if a more convenient time to cast them is coming up.

• Hamlet · 07/11/09, 1:53 AM

New spreadsheet update. I'm just going to start putting them here: http://elitistjerks.com/f73/t59457-m...dated_3_1_3_a/ .

Reflected some of the thinking I've been doing about haste. There are two delay factors you can specify now, "queue delay" and "instant delay." For practical purposes, assume that the former affects Starfire and the latter affects Wrath and instants.

There is a bit of a kludge right now where instants are given the same average cast time as Wrath (for purposes of estimating the effect of NG). I'll think about a better way to go about it, but I wanted to give some first-order estimate on NG uptime for instants, because it has an important effect on haste scaling (as NG'ed instants are subject to the 400 haste cap). This is actually going to overestimate NG uptime slightly (on the other hand, NG from Starfall isn't taken into account, so who knows), so it might be a bit conservative of the value of haste.

Overall, the value of haste isn't much lower that it was before. Still stronger than crit in 3.1 and slightly weaker in 3.2 (over the 400 mark--below that it's stronger than even spellpower). Have more confidence in these values after this update.

Notes:
--Still no modeling for 4T8
--4T9 assumed to be additive with Moonfury
--Idol of Lunar Fury is a flat 200 crit rating
--3.2 DoT modeling uses a "fixed" rotation where you refresh DoT's after every Eclipse ends. MF is slightly clipped and IS uptime is low.
--Doesn't incorporate any Lunar proc clairvoyance related to watching for the Nature's Grace buff.

Flamedor · 07/11/09, 10:14 AM

It appears that the cool down on Eclipse is now not functioning correctly/has been stealth changed.

I gained a Lunar eclipse twice within a 30 second frame. You can see this in this combat log extract:

15:09:10> [Flamedah's] Wrath hits [Heroic Training Dummy] for 5265 Nature.(259 Resisted) (Critical)
15:09:11> [Flamedah] gains [Flamedah's] Eclipse.
15:09:12> [Flamedah's] Wrath hits [Heroic Training Dummy] for 2409 Nature.(533 Resisted)
15:09:13> [Flamedah's] Wrath hits [Heroic Training Dummy] for 2704 Nature.(266 Resisted)
15:09:14> [Flamedah's] Starfire hits [Heroic Training Dummy] for 5781 Arcane.
15:09:17> [Flamedah's] Starfire hits [Heroic Training Dummy] for 11199 Arcane.(Critical)
15:09:19> [Flamedah's] Starfire hits [Heroic Training Dummy] for 5736 Arcane.
15:09:21> [Flamedah's] Starfire hits [Heroic Training Dummy] for 9312 Arcane.(1030 Resisted) (Critical)
15:09:23> [Flamedah's] Starfire hits [Heroic Training Dummy] for 5310 Arcane.(522 Resisted)
15:09:25> [Flamedah's] Starfire hits [Heroic Training Dummy] for 11578 Arcane.(Critical)
15:09:26> [Flamedah's] Eclipse fades from [Flamedah].
15:09:30> [Flamedah's] Wrath hits [Heroic Training Dummy] for 2764 Nature.(272 Resisted)
15:09:31> [Flamedah's] Wrath hits [Heroic Training Dummy] for 3286 Nature.(323 Resisted)
15:09:32> [Flamedah's] Wrath hits [Heroic Training Dummy] for 7233 Nature.(Critical)
15:09:32> [Flamedah] gains [Flamedah's] Eclipse.

If you note the timings, I gain a Lunar Eclipse twice in 22 seconds, which, from the tooltip should not possible. It's likely this is probably just a bug linked to the recent proc issues, however it could be something else. Not entirely sure how good this would be, given the recent Eclipse change (most likely just on par with it), but it's interesting nonetheless.

Altiris · 07/11/09, 11:00 AM

Probably just a PTR workaround. Eclipse has had a 15 sec CD on the PTR for the last couple of builds.

Europe · 07/11/09, 10:49 PM

Just looking over the coliseum itemization, do my eyes deceive me? I see...spiritless SP leather! and a spiritless caster staff. It seems like Blizz is finally acknowledging that this is the moonkin's preference. But if so, why the hell does our set gear still have so much spirit?

raidingmail · 07/12/09, 3:59 AM

I was looking at some of the new items as well I'm curious if anyone has taken the time to sit down and break the new items down stats wise and throw them into a Bis list for the future of if people are still waiting for everything to be released.