Moonkin Raiding - Page 174

Blades · 12/11/09, 11:13 AM

World of Logs - Real Time Raid Analysis

For anyone interested in seeing the proc on Nibelung, a log of Saurfang + ToC25.

I've tried to see if it proc's off of dots put as yet haven't been able to get a proc, I spent about 5mins DoTing 5 dummies and just letting them tick then repeating.

Huskar · 12/11/09, 12:50 PM

Originally Posted by feior

(1-0.1)^x = 0.5
x = log0.5 / log0.90 ~= 6.5 spell casts on average to have a 50% chance to not proc
(i.e., after 6.5 spell casts, you're expected to have had a 50% chance to proc the trinket - so average proc is after 6.5 spells)

I think you are trying to find the expected value for the number casts needed to proc. This is just the expected value of the number X of Bernoulli trials needed to get one success.

E_X = 1/p where p is chance to proc
E_X = 1/.1 = 10 casts

• Hamlet · 12/11/09, 12:58 PM

Originally Posted by Huskar

I think you are trying to find the expected value for the number casts needed to proc. This is just the expected value of the number X of Bernoulli trials needed to get one success.

E_X = 1/p where p is chance to proc
E_X = 1/.1 = 10 casts

This is right.

I also think a correct analysis of NIC is somewhat more complicated than the above, due to the interaction between the buff (+crit) and the condition for ending it. Maybe I'll try doing it sometime, but it seems pretty clear it's not that good anyway.

Huskar · 12/11/09, 1:33 PM

Does anyone know if the 3 minute cooldown on [Nevermelting Ice Crystal] starts after the crit buff has completely dropped off or immediately when the proc begins?

Lord BEEF · 12/11/09, 1:37 PM

Nevermelting Ice Crystal really just seems useful for shadow priests and warlocks who can continuously roll a corruption or shadow word pain with the extra crit.

feior · 12/11/09, 1:47 PM

Yeah I know my analysis is a bit weak. I simply just treated the crit buff and not as a "crit buff" which actually modifies would sway numbers around. Sorry I should have said I was trying to find an upper bound on the average case, not the average best case. However the code I've provided seems to be correct. The numbers I draw at the end there are from the code itself. As for the Sundial of the Exiled, I'll have to study some more on the Bernoulli trial. It was pretty quick of me to assume that my calculations worked for Sundial.

Huskar · 12/11/09, 3:24 PM

Originally Posted by feior

As for the Sundial of the Exiled, I'll have to study some more on the Bernoulli trial. It was pretty quick of me to assume that my calculations worked for Sundial.

The difference in the final value for sundial wouldn't change much, as the biggest factor is the 45 second cooldown. It's going to be about 100 average spell power.

aceofsween · 12/12/09, 11:52 AM

Going through the loot tables, has anyone else noticed a lack of Sp/crit weapons in the form that a Druid can actually use? I noticed the Frozen Bonespike, but that's all I've noticed, not counting the Quel'delar mace. So then, is that... it? Arthas will probably drop a caster weapon, but until then our pickings are kinda slim.

That sorta brings me to another point, which is Nibelung. The staff summons a Val'kyr guardian when you cast a spell. Do we have any data on the proc rate and the damage done by this weapon?

Malpercio · 12/12/09, 1:07 PM

Originally Posted by aceofsween

Going through the loot tables, has anyone else noticed a lack of Sp/crit weapons in the form that a Druid can actually use? I noticed the Frozen Bonespike, but that's all I've noticed, not counting the Quel'delar mace. So then, is that... it? Arthas will probably drop a caster weapon, but until then our pickings are kinda slim.

That sorta brings me to another point, which is Nibelung. The staff summons a Val'kyr guardian when you cast a spell. Do we have any data on the proc rate and the damage done by this weapon?

Proc rate is apparently 1%, with no cooldown. Each proc does about 30k damage. It's rather lackluster, unfortunately it seems to be the only properly itemized (no spirit) weapon on there.

I was also disappointed with the lack of leather crit/haste gear. It seems we're going to be fighting tooth and nail with clothies once again.

• Hamlet · 12/12/09, 1:38 PM

Well, the leather set items are good. 3 crit/haste, 2 crit/hit. In the off-set slots:

Wrists: Leather has spirit/haste, Cloth has spirit/haste and crit/hit (so potentially a cloth bis, depending on other good hit items).
Waist: Leather has spirit haste, but Cloth has crit/haste (so bis cloth)
Feet: Leather has crit/spirit in 25m and crit/haste in 10m, but Cloth has nothing yet (?)

Going by items on Icecrown Citadel Loot

aceofsween · 12/12/09, 4:31 PM

The tier pieces are extremely well itemized, I'll give you that.

But the weapons just really make you scratch your head and wonder. None of the staffs seem properly itemized at all. Nibelung is likely our best choice, as the other two non-spirit staffs have over 100 hit on them and the Aether staff has 136 even. Considering we get 164 hit just from our tier set and another 51 from the Exalted ring, I fail to see how anyone needs that much hit on a weapon. For having so greatly itemized the tier pieces it really makes you wonder about why the weapons are so out of proportion.

Also, Arawethion, the emblem belt is crit/haste.

• Hamlet · 12/12/09, 4:34 PM

Originally Posted by aceofsween

Also, Arawethion, the emblem belt is crit/haste.

Yeah, but I was trying to focus on 25-man drops, since they have 278 versions.

klüger · 12/12/09, 4:52 PM

Originally Posted by aceofsween

The tier pieces are extremely well itemized, I'll give you that.

But the weapons just really make you scratch your head and wonder. None of the staffs seem properly itemized at all. Nibelung is likely our best choice, as the other two non-spirit staffs have over 100 hit on them and the Aether staff has 136 even. Considering we get 164 hit just from our tier set and another 51 from the Exalted ring, I fail to see how anyone needs that much hit on a weapon. For having so greatly itemized the tier pieces it really makes you wonder about why the weapons are so out of proportion.

Also, Arawethion, the emblem belt is crit/haste.

I too am very disappointed with the itemization on the spell-weapons, though very pleased with the tierpieces.
What I plan to do is just bite the rancid apple and make room for hit on a weapon. Prolly through using crafted clothlegs as my offpiece.

Anyways, it seems very odd with the caster-weapons, anyone with abit "broader" knowledge of the classes have an estimate if the melee-weapons suffer similarily?

Hoedown · 12/12/09, 5:05 PM

I have found myself changing up my talents to adjust for all the hit on current gear itemizations. I dropped a point in Balance of Power and saw significant gains in overall DPS. There appears to be a ton of hit on gear...and judging from what I see on most of the loot lists i may have to drop another point in the future. Just an idea if it comes to that in your current gearings.

kaytie · 12/12/09, 5:38 PM

Originally Posted by Crook

Does anyone know if the new idol is worth getting first? Or should you wait to get tier gear now that its all itemized better?

It's apparently only a very minor upgrade over Lunar fury, so most are advising to buy it last: tier pieces first, then belt/cloak/whatever if you haven't got a drop somewhere, then the idol.