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Old 10/19/09, 3:37 PM   #2251
 Hamlet
<Druid Trainer> Emeritus
 
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Tauren Druid
 
Mal'Ganis
It's not just the variance in start time, it's the minor variance in delay between each cast. It's small due to spell queueing, but nonzero.

So you if you want to be really pedantic about this, you'd have to take the the distribution in starting delay for the first Starfire, and then convolve it with the delay distribution 7 times (or invoke the Central Limit Theorem). Regardless, I don't see any reason why the mean continuous DPS isn't a perfectly good estimate.

Links: Moonkin Resto WoWMath Twitter YouTube
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Old 10/19/09, 3:48 PM   #2252
janrael
Von Kaiser
 
Tauren Druid
 
Dunemaul
Originally Posted by Arawethion View Post
Regardless, I don't see any reason why the mean continuous DPS isn't a perfectly good estimate.
I'd say it is! The only problem here is that the sim has symmetric and normal timing distribution curves for all of the timing values (and I'm not sure it uses any variance in travel-time at all), which causes the simulated value of haste to have a larger step function component than the real value should, which in turn pushes people to value marginal haste improperly. It's the kind of artifact you get in a lot of physics simulations as well, people just have to learn to work around it.

I suggest that people trust the spreadsheet for their marginal haste values instead.

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Old 10/19/09, 10:41 PM   #2253
nesf
Von Kaiser
 
Tauren Druid
 
Argent Dawn (EU)
Originally Posted by janrael View Post
No. You cannot 'model it discretely' if you're using *average values* for your timing unless the distribution curve you're averaging is symmetrical, and it's not.

You're missing my central point - the 'random time before the first Starfire cast' is distributed over an interval, and fairly loosely. If you want to calculate the expected number of starfire casts, you have to calculate it for each value in the interval and multiply by the probability of that value - it's a weighted integral. This is only possible if you have a good distribution curve for that initial cast time, which implies *very* complete data, and would only be correct for the person you're using data from.

It's not that it's entirely a useless idea, it's just that the conclusion would vary from fight to fight, and we're talking a *lot* of math for each fight. You'd need something that gathers the average delta between 'gains eclipse' and 'starts casting starfire'; I don't think that's in the logs, so you'd really need a mod that records how much time wiseeclipse cuts off on each lunar phase, that resets whenever your haste-from-gear changes.. If anyone wants to make something like that, do publish it. I'll be impressed.
Apologies for the improper use of discretely, it's a very bad habit I've picked up from talking too much about modelling with non-mathematicians. I was thinking along the lines of the messy approach, draw initial delays from a few different kinds of distributions and seeing if there was an obvious favouring between one type of distribution and real datasets but you're quite correct it'd be entirely useless as it would automatically fit the data you had and not necessarily give any insight into the problem.

Originally Posted by Arawethion View Post
It's not just the variance in start time, it's the minor variance in delay between each cast. It's small due to spell queueing, but nonzero.

So you if you want to be really pedantic about this, you'd have to take the the distribution in starting delay for the first Starfire, and then convolve it with the delay distribution 7 times (or invoke the Central Limit Theorem). Regardless, I don't see any reason why the mean continuous DPS isn't a perfectly good estimate.
You're entirely correct, I think. Too much liking of an idea before I've thought through the obstacles on my part I'm afraid.

Actually, just to expand why I was so taken with the idea: I geared up fairly quickly and saw my dps change strangely as I got from far under to hitting the haste soft cap. One raid I was reliably doing X, I got 100 haste ish increase in gear and the next it my dps had ratcheted up by far more than I'd have expected given continuous modelling of dps (it was going from 3.5 to 4.2K on average or something like that). It was strange and stuck with me and I attributed it intuitively to some haste threshold being passed for me on my connection etc for total casts within an eclipse or similar. I never properly discounted other factors though at the time so it could just be "noise".

Last edited by nesf : 10/19/09 at 11:21 PM.

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Old 10/20/09, 2:05 PM   #2254
Giada
Glass Joe
 
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Tauren Druid
 
Skywall
On the subject of haste, in 3.3 [Formula: Enchant Weapon - Black Magic] is being changed to a haste proc (250 haste for 10 seconds, on a 35-second internal cooldown). The theorycrafting for other nuking classes indicates that this may be an improvement on 63 spellpower or even 81 spellpower for a staff. Would it be an upgrade for moonkins as well? Given how much time we spend in Solar Eclipse, it seems like it would be less beneficial for us.

Edit: Supposedly the ICD is a maximum of 35 seconds. It's being modeled elsewhere at approximately 30 percent uptime. Wouldn't that be closer to around 83 average haste rating?

Last edited by Giada : 10/20/09 at 5:07 PM.

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Old 10/20/09, 2:41 PM   #2255
janrael
Von Kaiser
 
Tauren Druid
 
Dunemaul
Originally Posted by Giada View Post
On the subject of haste, in 3.3 [Formula: Enchant Weapon - Black Magic] is being changed to a haste proc (250 haste for 10 seconds, on a 45-second internal cooldown). The theorycrafting for other nuking classes indicates that this may be an improvement on 63 spellpower or even 81 spellpower for a staff. Would it be an upgrade for moonkins as well? Given how much time we spend in Solar Eclipse, it seems like it would be less beneficial for us.
It's won't be an upgrade. Since the proc is random, we can average it out as 50 haste rating - it'll be distributed over wrath casts and starfire casts in the same ratio that regular haste rating is (almost. Since the first proc will most likely be for a lunar phase, it'll have slightly higher average value for shorter fights). 50 haste rating is nowhere near 63 spellpower at modern gear levels.

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Old 10/20/09, 3:27 PM   #2256
Erdluf
Great Tiger
 
Night Elf Druid
 
Echo Isles
In principle it could be on a second weapon swapped in just before a short burn phase (if your Eclipse status is right), or a Hurricane phase.

A 10 second proc makes the timing on that extremely tricky. Swap too early, and you may waste half the proc. Swap too late and rng may waste the entire proc.

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Old 10/20/09, 10:33 PM   #2257
 Adoriele
Save Greendale!
 
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Night Elf Druid
 
Dragonblight
Originally Posted by Erdluf View Post
In principle it could be on a second weapon swapped in just before a short burn phase (if your Eclipse status is right), or a Hurricane phase.

A 10 second proc makes the timing on that extremely tricky. Swap too early, and you may waste half the proc. Swap too late and rng may waste the entire proc.
This doesn't work. Around the time that they introduced Val'Anyr, they forced all equipment swaps to trigger that item's ICD.

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Old 10/21/09, 1:17 PM   #2258
Beargarden
Glass Joe
 
Troll Druid
 
Sargeras
Item - Icecrown 25 Normal Caster Trinket 2 - Each time one of your spells deals periodic damage, you have a chance to gain 918 spell power for 10 sec.

If there's a low ICD on this trinket, hopefully I will be able to pick this one up quickly.

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Old 10/21/09, 1:28 PM   #2259
 Hamlet
<Druid Trainer> Emeritus
 
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Tauren Druid
 
Mal'Ganis
Will almost certainly have the standard 45s ICD.

Links: Moonkin Resto WoWMath Twitter YouTube
Please don't PM requests for advice on UI or specific gear choices.

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Old 10/21/09, 1:33 PM   #2260
Kirbie44
Piston Honda
 
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Night Elf Druid
 
Magtheridon
Edited.

Last edited by Kirbie44 : 10/21/09 at 1:34 PM. Reason: Above Post.

Artificial Intelligence usually beats real stupidity.

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Old 10/21/09, 3:10 PM   #2261
jtalaimo
Banned
 
Tauren Druid
 
Durotan
Wow 10 man heroic trink same as illustration, that's kinda... Horrible?

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Old 10/21/09, 3:47 PM   #2262
Bogeywoman
Piston Honda
 
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Tauren Druid
 
Gorgonnash
It's not horrible, the trinket is still really good if not BiS, and not everyone has access to Illustration. Think of it as a levelling out of the playing field.

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Old 10/21/09, 4:19 PM   #2263
jtalaimo
Banned
 
Tauren Druid
 
Durotan
any given 10 man raid can go into sarth 25 and kill him no drakes. You can 5 man it if you want to spend the time, so I'd have to argue that it is available for everyone, plus I don't like the fact that it's a heroic trinket, and the exact same that's been out since the expansion.

I've been using illustration, until this past week but still, it's just the fact that it's not original.

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Old 10/21/09, 10:00 PM   #2264
Nassir
Glass Joe
 
Tauren Druid
 
Scilla
When is it time to move out of the t8.5 4p?

Right now I'm sitting on [Helm of the High Mesa] and [Robes of the Shattered Fellowship]
and I also have a Trophy of the Crusade to buy something.

Is it worth using these and letting go of the 4p?

Last edited by Nassir : 10/21/09 at 10:22 PM.

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Old 10/21/09, 10:30 PM   #2265
Zifrelm
Von Kaiser
 
Night Elf Druid
 
Burning Blade
Originally Posted by jtalaimo View Post
any given 10 man raid can go into sarth 25 and kill him no drakes.
I don't think I'd have an easy time convincing 9 other people to go farm it with me just so *I* can get a trinket.
Originally Posted by Nassir View Post
When is it time to move out of the t8.5 4p?
It's time when you have 2T9, go with 2T8/2T9. If you don't expect to get a second trophy soon, buy a 232 piece with badges.

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Old 10/22/09, 12:16 AM   #2266
nesf
Von Kaiser
 
Tauren Druid
 
Argent Dawn (EU)
Originally Posted by Zifrelm View Post
I don't think I'd have an easy time convincing 9 other people to go farm it with me just so *I* can get a trinket.
I could do it very easily, except 5+ of those who would come would also be after the trinket. It's a 20% drop rate, so every 5 weeks or so one of us could get one. Then convincing that person to stay doing the raid for the other 4 to get one would be difficult at best.

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Old 10/22/09, 12:38 AM   #2267
qae
Piston Honda
 
Night Elf Druid
 
Kirin Tor (EU)
Originally Posted by jtalaimo View Post
Wow 10 man heroic trink same as illustration, that's kinda... Horrible?
I remember that for the Coliseum they only listed the "proc" effect on trinkets like Death's Choice / Verdict, and some raw stats were added later.

Considering the Ilvl gap between [Illustration of the Dragon Soul] and the new trinket, we will probably see a "+80~ crit/haste/hit" in addition of the stacking spell power.

I just hope it will be crit

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Old 10/23/09, 5:22 PM   #2268
Isenn
Glass Joe
 
Orc Shaman
 
Arygos
Thoughts on New T10 4Pc Bonus

"4 pieces - Your critical strikes from Starfire and Wrath cause the target languish for an additional 5% of your spell's damage over 4 seconds."

I am curious how this will play out, wouldn't it be getting overwritten regularly thus negating the full value of the dps gain?

EDIT: Sorry I see this was answered a couple pages back. Please ignore.

Last edited by Isenn : 10/27/09 at 5:45 PM.

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Old 10/24/09, 3:07 AM   #2269
jtalaimo
Banned
 
Tauren Druid
 
Durotan
Anub 25 Heroic

Okay, so recently my guild is doing 25 anub on heroic. Unlike most fights, I think it requires a bit of tweaking because it's so unique. And when i say unique, I mean a lot of AoE and little time for dots/eclipses. I've done a bit of tweaking as far as Moonkin changes,

Inscect Swarm Glpyh for Starfall glpyh - also i'm in charge of 3% miss on this particular fight
Gale Winds and Typhoon - also glyph for typhoon (minor )

I'm finding myself little to no time to dps main boss atm, in terms of maybe going through one lunar/solar cycle

I'm thinking it's going to be best to always keep dots on main boss -
a) for the hit debuff for tank
b) for the crit uptime

My question is - for trinket choices and some gear/gem choices

Obviously straight SP is really good, but would haste be a stat that might be increased more than crit, to speep up hurricanes?

Also trinks - I'm goign to rule out any stacking trinkets (illustration and others) Maybe trinks like scale of fates with haste benefits on lunar eclipses will help

Any other information or trinks you guys think would be useful, I'm seeing myself on the low end of all this AoE madness, we ain't the best AoE, but I think I can be better than what i'm doing.

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Old 10/24/09, 5:17 AM   #2270
Poromu
Piston Honda
 
Night Elf Druid
 
Windrunner
Inbetween Hurricanes is a bad time to DoT, you can waste Omen of Clarity procs that are much more vital to maintaining Hurricane spam. I basically reserve every cast after a Hurricane to be either Starfall or Hurricane, until adds die anyways.

I also found that the Starfall glyph isn't really much better than IS glyph. You have to occasionally force yourself to single target Anub, either for mana reasons or JoL reasons or in that burn part of p3 where you switch off adds to kill Anub.

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Old 10/24/09, 12:00 PM   #2271
bodvarbjarki
Von Kaiser
 
Night Elf Druid
 
Kul Tiras
I've had decent luck on heroic Anub with stacking trinkets. You have enough time before the first set of adds to get full stacks, or close to it. Whether you do after burrow phases depends on the individual details of how your guild moves and kills scarabs.

Anub doesn't really hit that hard. It's nice to have IS up for the debuff, but I wouldn't take AOE breaks to do it. I gave a higher priority to keeping up the debuff in P3.

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Old 10/24/09, 12:09 PM   #2272
druidi
Glass Joe
 
Night Elf Druid
 
Ravenholdt (EU)
I've been raiding as moonkin for sometime and wondering about the best rotation for togc10? Any ideas, mainly on last boss.

Last edited by druidi : 10/24/09 at 12:30 PM.

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Old 10/24/09, 4:45 PM   #2273
Dameron
Glass Joe
 
Tauren Druid
 
Dethecus
Originally Posted by druidi View Post
I've been raiding as moonkin for sometime and wondering about the best rotation for togc10? Any ideas, mainly on last boss.
Anub depends a lot on your raid makeup and whether you have to shoot down Orbs. If you have 2 or more good Warrior/DK/Rogue, the adds will die fast enough you're probably best served by Moonfiring each of them once and then continuing the regular single-target rotation on Anub, adding in Starfall and Typhoon (if specced). They're just not a big deal. If you do have to DPS the adds, I would lean towards single-targeting them while keeping DoTs on Anub, but I have no math or anything beyond a gut reaction to stand that on.

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Old 10/25/09, 11:23 AM   #2274
Royalite
Von Kaiser
 
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Night Elf Druid
 
Aggramar
I am surprised by the mention of glyphed Typhoon for the ToGCs.

I am currently raiding in ToC10/25 and working through ToGC10 up to the twins. The initial impressions I had of typhoon was that typhoon is not a dps boost but more situational talent.

Since my group has better control over the factions fight, I removed typhoon from my talents but as I am understanding in ToGC10 it is worth talenting in for with the glyph? Or only if you have the points to spare?

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Old 10/25/09, 11:45 AM   #2275
Diba
Von Kaiser
 
Tauren Druid
 
Vashj (EU)
It's pretty much only for Anub, as you have 5 targets and you want to keep NG up for Hurricane.

It's also semi-nice when moving and when you have dots rolling, that's pretty much it.

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