Originally Posted by InSaen
Someone correct me if i'm wrong:
[Darkmoon Card: Blue Dragon] procs 2% of the time with no internal cooldown. So a druid with a one sec GCD casts ~50 times a minute. So it takes 50 casts (100/2 =50) to get the trinket to proc and we cast 50 times in 60 secs. So (15secs/60secs)*100% = 25% uptime. So using one of the spirit trinkets like [Majestic Dragon Figurine] for example, you would have ~1400mp5 out of 5 second rule, subtracting what we get from intensity that leaves 980mp5. So Blue dragon gives you 980mp5 inside the 5 second rule when it procs. With a 25% uptime that comes out to 245mp5 passively. So blue dragon alone is worth 245mp5 and the other spirit trinket is worth ~60mp5. Meaning from this combo alone we're sitting on 305mp5 just from trinkets.
Is this correct?
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I don't think it's correct InSaen because I believe you are overestimating the proc rate of the trinket. With a 2% chance to proc & no ICD, you would not expect 1 proc every 50 casts. In fact, unless my probability calculation is way off, the chance of no proc in 50 casts would be 0.98^50 = 36.41%, going to 13.2% in 100 casts and 1.7% in 200 casts.
Hopefully I'm not too far off base but I would expect a realistic proc for the trinket is more likely once every 3-4 minutes. Obviously though, it has the possibility of going off multiple times in a fight.
At any rate, given spam casting with zero oFSR time where the value of Blue Dragon would be highest, the maximum benefit would be 2% of 100%/30% of Spirit. With 1000 Spirit, that equates to 66.67 which would put it quite firmly below other regen trinkets.