I would definitely trust simulation results over estimations (assuming the simulator is correct). Any application that does not perform full simulations is just an estimator. They are not expected to be exact. Some mechanics are assumed super-human (like zero latency). Usually most mechanics are averaged out, so RNG differences for specific cycles are not accounted for (like crits, OoC, and procs). Even a simulator cannot accurately account for specific fight mechanics and non-stationary encounters. Do raid buffs actually have 100% uptime? Total stats can drastically change relative values. Most people already accepted that hit/expertise is undervalued in estimations. The biggest question is if it is always worth capping (and possibly going over) or if just getting close to cap is good enough. I'm not sure it can ever be answered mathematically.

It is also difficult to weigh stat values based on any "average encounter". For example, it could very well end up that ArP is best for a stationary fight like Patchwerk, but not for a fight with high movement. There are already encounters where I'll swap between Idols. I'll also swap in a little more expertise for Thaddius since I usually end up attacking from in front very often. Yes crit gives higher average CP, but AP gives more consistent damage (similar to avoidance vs armor). So stacking crit could lead to your damage swinging by a large amount from one attempt to the next even on the same boss. What is more important? Yes, it's fun seeing big numbers in SCT and damage meters, but for progression content consistency is probably best IMO. If you had great dps the first 5 attempts, but RNG sucked on the kill shot.. which meter will be looked at?

Hopefully people know to not take any numbers as law. For any items that come close in value, relative worth can change from fight to fight and overall stats.

Sotf gives 6% stats on both live and ptr

I can confirm the bug. The tooltip still says 20%, but it is only giving 10%. I tried a few old items with low stam and some new ones.

Base stamina in bear form: 148

[Drakefire Amulet]: 162 sta (10*1.06*1.02*1.1*1.25 = 14.8665 + 148 ~= 162)
[Silent-Strider Kneeboots]: 192 sta (10*1.06*1.02*1.1*1.25 = 44.5995 + 148 ~= 192)
[Staff of the Plague Beast]: 348 sta (135*1.06*1.02*1.1*1.25 = 200.69775 + 148 ~= 348)
[Pattern: Polar Vest] (stam gems/patch): 533 sta (259*1.06*1.02*1.1*1.25 = 385.04235 + 148 ~= 533)

It's almost certainly intended, and needed as well. The health advantage of druids was always going to make balancing encounters almost impossible without giving druids a huge advantage (see Sarth3d - druids and DK's had massive advantages, and I wouldn't expect that to continue). We may get more changes to compensate, but I'd be amazed if they let the health difference stay as it is (and get to be a bigger and bigger problem).

On stam nerf: Actually there are many blue post were they said that high hp druid is fine, and they want warr/pala to have different things. Also they stated that having one tank better for progress on a single boss it's fine. What if they introduce a 0.1 swing timer boss? Block will rock and a warrior or paladin will be the choce. There are many ways to balance encounter without taking off our high stam values.

For Mijae: I completly agree with you. For istance there are many piece of gear for tank near in value but usually the second or third best has an high expertise. I usually choce expertise vs. other stats because not being parry gibbed is one of the best things for me. It's not only a fight vs. fight choce but at least for me it's also a matter of personal flavor. A 50 or also 100 dps difference on overall will not make the recount, from fight to fight you can easly see 10% dps difference due to RNG.

Except that a 0.1 swing timer boss is a gimmick and not really lethal to any tank. Burst is what kills tanks and if you want to have a boss burst with a 0.1 swing timer you are seriously going into the gimmicky terrain (read: nearly every other boss will still burst you with a big melee hit or melee/magic combo).

Would be nice to see the new Effective Health Druids have on PTR after the 10% stamina nerf (unintended or not) and the armor loss. Just to compare to the other tanks and bears on live in the same gear.

Let's say:
Boss A. Hit for 80k pre armor every 2 seconds.
Boss B. Hit for 6-7k pre armor every 0.1 seconds.

I think you can easy die from both, healers cast time is the same. But boss A will be a druid boss while boss B will be a pala/warr boss.

Well, looking at World of Warcraft (en) Forums -> [Updated] 3.1.0 PTR Patch Notes it (the HotW-nerf) seems to be intendet. And so Feral-hybridism goes down and down and down...

I very much dislike this. What makes a druid better then a warrior then?

I think they want druids again to be the perfect offtank. Soaking blows and not a tank really. More a dpsser that can tank if needed rather then a tank that can dps is needed.

Given that the updated patch notes also removed all references to Savage Defense, my hunch is that they're in the process of reverting SOTF to 66% bonus armor, scrapping the Savage Defense idea, and nerfing the Stamina from HOTW instead.

As it stands right now, my gear set has managed to lose both a ton of armor and about 2k HP on the PTR.
vs.

(Patch notes for reference: World of Warcraft (en) Forums -> [Updated] 3.1.0 PTR Patch Notes )

Edit: Fixed gearsets to be actually identical
Edit2: Also, just realized that I have 2/2 in the new Imp Mark on the PTR, so I have 2% more of everything. Apparently that 2% gain isn't from the Buff, but from the talent? Strange. I thought they were trying to turn it into Almost-Blessing-of-Kings.

Oh well, it's way to expensive to roll it on more than 1 tank now