Moonkin PvE Discussion, 3.3.3

• Hamlet · 03/04/10, 8:38 PM

Starting a new discussion thread that's patch-current (old one will be locked shortly). All topics related to current Moonkin raiding go here.

My Moonkin raiding guide is maintained here:
http://elitistjerks.com/f47/t66856-m...ted_3_3_3_ptr/

Anyone posting should have good familiarity with the current state of Moonkin theory, either from this guide or from anywhere else. At the very least, do not ask questions that are directly answered in the guide; they will be infracted.

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To get started, the old thread was talking about the incoming 3.3.3 changes (I should have started this one a little earlier to avoid breaking it up). The main issues are:
--Which Glyphs should be used in addition to Starfall--Starfire/Moonfire/Insect Swarm/Focus?
--When in the cycle should DoT's be refreshed?

aceofsween · 03/04/10, 10:24 PM

These questions have several underlying questions that need to be answered first.

What is your goal?
Is highest possible DPS your priority?
Are you required to keep unglyphed IS up?
Should we use 1 DoT or 2 (unless moving)?
Is it feasible to stand within 18 yards of the boss?

That being said, I think striking the best balance comes with the Starfall/Starfire /Moonfire combination. It provides the highest DPS combination without resorting to the Focus Glyph. Starfall/Focus/Insect Swarm will provide you higher DPS, but it comes at a pretty stiff cost. It effectively limits you to 18 yards and prevents you from making use of the IS miss debuff, although that may be completely inconsequential if you are only applying a non-glyphed DoT while moving (using a 1 DoT rotation).

As far as DoT refreshing is concerned, I believe that is a simple case of measuring the DPET of your DoTs vs. the DPET of your Nukes and seeing which one comes out higher. Insect Swarm is infinitely easier to figure out as it's duration is constant while if you are glyphed for Moonfire, you must cast 3 Starfires to get the full benefit of the DoT. This is going to vary for everyone. With enough crit, Wrath will outweigh a Glyphed IS during Solar Eclipses, although speccing into Improved Insect Swarm will enable you to offset this minor damage loss, provided there is enough time left on Eclipse. The same is also true for Moonfire: with enough Crit, Wrath will outweigh Moonfire, unless it is fully extended. Therefore, refreshing Moonfire is dependent on when you will cast your next Starfire and you must properly time your refresh so that you can be sure it will be extended. During Lunar Eclipses however, a glyphed Insect Swarm never has a higher DPET than Starfire while a glyphed Moonfire (extended) almost always does, although with enough Haste, even Moonfire could be surpassed (during Bloodlust/Heroism, for example).

Finally, there is the idol proc to consider and I believe the consensus is that it should never fall off for any reason. Therefore, if you are using a 1 DoT rotation, you must reapply IS at least once every 27 seconds (it has to tick once to refresh the Idol) or MF once every 27 to 36 seconds (depending on if it is extended or not). Most of the time, I don't think this will be a problem. The biggest concern would be with Moonfire, but normally when first applied it lasts into a Solar Eclipse, giving you more than enough time to reapply Moonfire, even should you choose to refresh after the Eclipse ends. If you refresh during a Solar Eclipse, but time it well enough so that you will be able to extend it by proccing a Lunar Eclipse, then you will have to refresh it again during your Eclipse cycle, and it will again last into the Solar Eclipse phase, repeating the cycle. It's hard to predict this with complete accuracy though because we all know how finicky proccing Eclipse can be at times. In any event, the answer remains fairly straight forward: if ever there comes a time where your Idol proc is about to wear off, reapply your highest DPET DoT.

Valardruid · 03/05/10, 3:18 AM

DoT refreshing is not as simple as just comparing DPeTs. Plausible numbers for the sake of illustrating the point:

IS: 9000
wrath under eclipse: 8900
wrath under eclipse/is: 9100
wrath under IS:7100
wrath: 7000

Even though insect swarm has a higher DPeT than an eclipsed wrath, choosing to apply insect swarm over an eclipsed wrath could be the wrong decision. (Not considering the hit debuff) Say you have time for three globals left in your eclipse, and assuming gcd-capped wraths.

Option 1: cast three eclipsed wraths, then refresh IS, cast 3 wraths to proc lunar
Total damage: (3*8900)+(9000)+(3*7100)=57000
57000/7=8142.9 dps

Option 2: refresh IS, cast two eclipsed wraths, cast 3 wraths to proc lunar
Total damage: (9000)+(2*9100)+(3*7100)=48500
48500/6=8083.3 dps

This is still an over-simplification, but the underlying cause of a dps gain by choosing a lower DPeT spell is due to the concept of opportunity cost. By refreshing insect swarm out of eclipse, you give up a lot less (a non-eclipsed wrath) than if you refresh it during eclipse (an eclipsed wrath). This is one of the reasons DoT refreshing rules are not rigid, and modeling the top DPS refreshing pattern is impossible, it depends on too many things. This is why only general refreshing rules are used.

aceofsween · 03/05/10, 4:36 AM

Perhaps I didn't explain that point as thoroughly as I have in the past thread, but this was something I have already illustrated, and in fact mentioned in my response.

With enough crit, Wrath will outweigh a Glyphed IS during Solar Eclipses, although speccing into Improved Insect Swarm will enable you to offset this minor damage loss, provided there is enough time left on Eclipse.

Basically, 3 GCDs left is not enough time nor have I ever stated that it would be. Let me illustrate my point more thoroughly (again... since it'll be lost amidst the locked thread). However, let's do this using more accurate numbers, and again I'm going to use the values from WrathCalcs (with my gear) as my example.

Average GCD: 1.1
IS: 9646
Wrath: 8290
Wrath under Eclipse: 10971
Wrath+IS: 8511
Wrath under Eclipse+IS: 11273

Let's assume Eclipse has enough time remaining to cast 7 GCDs and can either refresh it now, or wait:

7 Wraths under Eclipse, Refresh, 3 Wraths to proc Lunar:
(7*10971) + 9646 + (3*8511) = 111976 damage, 9254.21 dps

Refresh, 6 Wraths under Eclipse, 3 Wraths to proc Lunar:
9646 + (6*11273) + (3*8511) = 102817 damage, 9347 dps

Net difference for immediately refreshing: +92.79 dps

Conveniently, 3 GCDs is the breaking point (was that a coincidence?). If I have 4 GCDs or more, it is better to refresh IS immediately. If I have 3 GCDs or less, then it is better to wait until Eclipse expires. I want to stress this is only for me, personally. It will probably be a little different based on various gear setups. Also, a quick note... The damage added by using 3 Wraths to proc a Lunar Eclipse is irrelevant, because it's the same in every situation. It only serves to normalize the DPS. If you drop that damage off, the DPS fluctuates even more.

EDIT: I also wanted to add that not only does this setup already provide higher DPS, but it also reduces Eclipse downtime since you don't waste a GCD refreshing a DoT outside of Eclipse.

Valardruid · 03/05/10, 5:42 AM

Originally Posted by aceofsween

Conveniently, 3 GCDs is the breaking point.

This was the exact point I was trying to make. A simple DPeT comparison is not sufficient in evaluating the best use of a global. There is a point where the increased opportunity cost of an eclipsed wrath outweighs the gain of having insect swarm up for the remainder of that eclipse.

As a side note: It seems my post was viewed as some sort of attack on or counter to the previous post, which was not intended.

Valardruid · 03/05/10, 1:45 PM

Originally Posted by aceofsween

That is still simple DPeT comparison. It's just a broader scope than looking at just Eclipsed Wraths and just Insect Swarm's values.

To maintain clarity and transparency throughout this thread, one term should only mean one thing. Using this broader scope, the bonus from NG uptime due to starfall should be considered in starfall's DPeT, tarfire's DPeT increases if moonfire is able to be extended, and the DPeT of IS increases if there are wraths to follow. In this manner, a significant amount of damage will be counted twice, and average DPeT retains no relation to dps.

Pokerkin · 03/05/10, 2:21 PM

I've been playing around with Focus/Starfall/IS the last week in raids to be better ready for when the patch rolls around as that is the glyph setup I am planning on running. I've been trying to experiment with different rotations to see what works best in practice as well as how the focus glyph range reduction impacts how I move, react and use starfall and how much that changes the rest of our abilities.

I got on the PTR the other day and tested the new starfall change. On live servers, my starfall is doing anywhere from 15-19k per one cast, while on the PTR, starfall is doing 55-60k per one cast. This is an increase of roughly 40-45k per cast which should equate to a dps increase of 750 dps or so (45k/60=750). This information is already known for the most part, so I'm kind of just reinforcing the fact here.

IMO the range reduction on starfall is actually very nice. Yes, it does require us to stand closer which is the direct opposite of one of a caster character's main advantages; however, I feel that it gives me more control over what I want to hit with the starfall so I can put more concentrated damage on a specific target(s) if I want to.

The rotation I have settled on is to start with FF, IS, Starfall, then the normal eclipse rotation. I've found that throwing both DoTs(to get the idol rolling quicker) on the target is actually less dps than just starting in on some wraths and hopefully getting an eclipse within the first few seconds of the fight(1 wrath > 1 MF). I refresh IS at the end of Lunars (normally during the last 1.5-2 seconds of lunar eclipse when the eclipse is effectively over). I also refresh IS at any point during the solar eclipse(more on this later). My crit is more than over cap without MF up so that MF really has little effect on proc times of my next eclipse or on the lunar eclipse phase. I do have IIS (although I've been fidgeting with either 2 or 3 points in it and 2 or 3 points in OkF) so my wrath damage does go up with IS on the target.

I have had no problems with idol buff falling and I watch powerauras (which I have set to showing how many seconds until the idol buff drops) in case I get REALLY REALLY terrible rng and have to reapply at an awkward time.

The math in the last few posts is a little sketchy. I ran some numbers this morning to prove that IS refreshing during a solar is actually better than 1 wrath cast IF you have IIS. These numbers are with 3 pt IIS and are weighted averages of wrath depending on crit%. I pulled the data from my last WoL parse for average hit and crit numbers and percentages on bosses fights.

1 IS cast = 7 ticks*1780 damage = 12460 damage = 1 IS cast
Wrath Crit average = 12965, Crit % = 71.2%, Weighted Wrath crit damage contribution = 9231 damage
Wrath Hit average = 6642, Hit % = 28.8%, Weighted Wrath hit damage contribution = 1913 damage
Overall Wrath Weighted average = 9231+1913 = 11144 damage <= This is the overall wrath number usd for comparison.
I weighted the IIS additions to see what wrath would hit for without IS up for the majority of IS casting(using crit% and the multipliers for IIS[1.03 for hits and 1.06 for crits respectively])
Results : Wrath weighted average (w/o IS) = 10600 damage meaning on average 544 extra damage per wrath occurs with IS up.

With the rotation stated at the beginning of the post, IS is up nearly 100% of the time I cast wraths as I cast it whenever there is a heavy solar part of the rotation. The only factors not considered is time spent casting wrath inside solar eclipse versus outside solar eclipse. Even with very pessimistic values, IS is worth more than Wrath is on a strictly DPCT perspective.

feior · 03/05/10, 3:30 PM

I believe that is a simple case of measuring the DPET of your DoTs vs. the DPET of your Nukes and seeing which one comes out higher

To be perfectly honest, I don't really know what your purpose or intent was for posting.

The intent of Valardruid's post was to say that this is not always true and he constructed a plausible example to show you that this isn't always true.

When in the cycle should DoT's be refreshed?

I tend to use MF at about 6 seconds before solar eclipse finishes if MF isn't up near this time. It takes me about 4'ish casts to proc lunar eclipse (assuming 30% chance to proc per Wrath for 3.33 casts on average). Supposing none of those wraths were NG'd, then I'd still have about 15 -4.5 (Non-NG'd Non-eclipsed Wraths) -6 (time casted before eclipse ended) = average of 4.5 seconds left of moonfire during lunar eclipse. Extending the 4.5 seconds worth of moonfire gives me 13.5 seconds during lunar eclipse (forcing it to fall off before eclipse is over). This means I can reapply it while trying to proc solar eclipse.

Obviously this won't work if it takes more than 6 wrath casts to proc lunar. I'm not sure if the gcds are better placed elsewhere, but this seems to be a good solution.

I've found that throwing both DoTs(to get the idol rolling quicker) on the target is actually less dps than just starting in on some wraths

I personally throw out both dots so I can swap between SF and Wrath and use whichever eclipse procs first. Throwing out IS first to get the idol rolling faster. With really bad RNG, I tend to do this again if both eclipse are off CD. I heard swapping of Wrath/SF is better in this scenario, but who knows... maybe things have changed.

Erdluf · 03/05/10, 5:26 PM

Pokerkin,

You said that during Lunar, you would cast IS when there isn't enough time to complete another SF within Lunar. I argue that you should usually cast two more Starfires before casting IS (this assumes you are in no danger of losing the Idol bonus). By delaying IS, the Nature's Grace "left over" from Lunar is spent on another SF (where it does more good), and IS lasts longer into Solar (avoiding refreshes during Solar).

In general, you might have to move in the next four or five seconds. If it happens, saving your DoT for movement was probably a good thing. The rest of this post assumes you don't end up having to move.

Looking at the next several casts (including the last Lunar SF).
SF = crit
sf = non-crit
Sf = don't know.
IS = insect swarm
Red is a spell gaining a NG benefit. (2s or 1.1s)
Black is a spell without NG (2.4s or 1.2s)
I'm going to assume the spell before these sequences was a Lunar SF that crit.

For each sequence I will list:
probability%
Time till start of first Solar Wrath.
Time in Solar when IS fades.
Time "wasted" at beginning of Solar before starting first Wrath

with your strategy (SF crit at 90% Lunar or 50% otherwise):

SF IS sf sf Sf : 22.5%. 11.9s+x, 7.1-x, 2s.
SF IS sf SF Sf : 22.5% 9.5s. 9.5s, 2s.
SF IS SF Sf Wr : 45%. 8.2s. 11.9s, 2s
sf IS sf sf Sf : 2.5%. 12.3s+x. 6.7-x, 2s
sf IS sf SF Sf: 2.5%. 9.9s. 9.1s. 2s
sf IS SF Sf Wr: 5%. 7.5s. 11.5s. 2s

New strategy: If the last Lunar SF crits, cast two more SF before IS. If the last Lunar SF does not crit, cast one more SF before IS.

SF sf sf IS Sf: 22.5%: 11.6s+x. 11.4s-x. 2s
SF sf SF IS Wr: 22.5% 7.1s. 14s. 1.1s.
SF SF Sf IS Wr: 45% 7.1s. 16s. 3.1s.
sf sf IS sf Sf: 2.5% 12s+x. 7.1s-x, 2s
sf sf IS SF Sf: 2.5% 9.6s. 11.4s. 2s.
sf SF IS Wr Wr: 5% 5.1s. 14s. 1.1s

If I got those numbers right, on average:
You begin casting Solar Wrath about 1.2s earlier
IS above lasts about 4s longer into solar. 70% of the time, IS lasts into the last second of Solar (or goes beyond Solar).
You do lose an extra 1/4 s to non-wrath spells (on average) at the start of every Solar, but I think the earlier proc, and reduced need to refresh IS during Solar makes up for that.

Edit: You also lose some DoT uptime. I think you're still better off, but I haven't crunched the numbers to be sure.

Pokerkin · 03/05/10, 9:08 PM

I've thought about this a few times too, even with latency, my haste is high enough that I have time to cast the IS, a SF, and then another SF while still under the effects of NG.

For example: Lets say my last lunar SF lands with 1.5s left on the eclipse. I'm massively over the crit cap, so this is guaranteed to crit. I then cast IS and start another SF. This is a total of ~2.8 seconds which with my latency (which is usually pretty low) allows me to still get the second SF in at NG speed. It's still the same amount of SF casts at the end of the lunar eclipse as in your example, except that once the solar starts, I can start spamming wrath without needing to apply IS during the solar (which I proved that IS is worth refreshing during a solar; however, it is always better to have it rolling at any point you are not in the lunar eclipse phase). With my current state of crit, 2 SF is usually more than enough to proc solar, though we all know the sad state of moonkin rng. Theoretically, I believe that both of our situations would lead to similar dps. My method allows a little more uptime for IS which is going to be the strongest DPCT any time youre not in lunar eclipse. I also understand that your method allows you to see if you got a NG proc while you are casting IS, but the dps difference between starting the next cast and possibly waiting on latency or other factors to see if NG procced is so minimal that it's almost non-existant.

One small thing I noticed about your numbers: if I understand correctly, you assume that SF has a 90% crit chance in lunar and 50% otherwise. I'm not sure if thats your crit percentage, but I'm easily over 100% crit inside lunar (I'm actually somewhere around 105% with idol rolling, buffs, etc, and much greater than 50% outside lunar, so that would be a factor to think about in our differing rotations.

I'll have to play around with your theory though as it is a slight variation that I did not test

With respect to the movement and saving the IS cast, I plan ahead and know when I'm going to be moving and change my rotation accordingly, so the rotation I said I use is a general outline for stand still fights, not really meant to be utmost rotation that you have to stick to no matter what. I know how to plan ahead and I know the encounters very well, it's not like it's my first time around the block in a raid :P. <=not meant to be a jackass statement, but I couldn't think of a better way to put it.

Knofle · 03/07/10, 4:41 PM

I've been playing around with various rotations in the 3.3.3 beta version of the fairly new tool "Team Robot", found here: Team Robot Wow Simulator Beta, since this is a fairly simple tool to play around with stuff like rotations.

I personally don't know the accuracy level of this simulation tool to its full extents, but I did however find some interesting results in the various rotations and glyphing.

Please note that the equipment I used is my own, with 3028 Bonus Damage (3350~ counting item procs), 1017 crit rating, 652 haste rating, 274 spirit and 1308 intellect. All calculations are with full raid buffs (Totem of wrath, no demonology warlock). I do have 4setT10, but this is currently bugged with this tool, as it provides insufficient amounts of damage.

The "normal" cookie cutter rotation would be Wrath until lunar eclipse, starfire until wrath eclipse, and keep the dots up.
For this rotation i found this result with the different glyphs.

1: swarm,sfall,focus 10573

2: mfire,sfall,focus 10489

3: mfire,sfall,sfire 10607

4: mfire,swarm,sfire 10491

The rotation I present is however a bit different, and started off as a thought experiment.
Eclipses go as normal, but to only apply insect swarm when solar eclipses pops, and moonfire only applied when lunar eclipse pops, or whenever insect swarm is not present.

1: swarm,sfall,focus 10614

2: mfire,sfall,focus 10634

3: mfire,sfall,sfire 10576

4: mfire,swarm,sfire 10356

Secondly, we have had discussions about whether it just pays off to drop one of our dots, and I tried those too.
Dropping Insect Swarm:

1: mfire,sfall,focus 10563

2: mfire,sfall,sfire 10593

Dropping Moonfire:
1: swarm,sfall,focus 10765

This is all just data from a simulation model that hasn't been thoroughly enough tested, but it does give some food for thought, I guess.

edit: I guess my personal opinion would be to take any rotation without glyph of focus, at least for non-static fights, since I like to be as mobile as possible and keep my distance to the boss. This is a personal opinion though, and it might well change once more facts are presented.

• Hamlet · 03/07/10, 5:34 PM

Robot is even nice enough to give confidence intervals, it's a huge waste to not include them in the results. They go a long way toward showing how meaningful any tests are.

Jivv · 03/07/10, 6:47 PM

Originally Posted by Knofle

The rotation I present is however a bit different, and started off as a thought experiment.
Eclipses go as normal, but to only apply insect swarm when solar eclipses pops, and moonfire only applied when lunar eclipse pops, or whenever insect swarm is not present.

So, are you suggesting that you use it RIGHT when the eclipse buff comes up, for either eclipse? So, the second one sees Lunar, you start the starfire spam right after throwing up moonfire, and vice versa? Also, so if there are no dots up, we refresh moonfire? Just wanted to test your rotation, but wanted to make sure that I knew exactly what you were saying before I tried it. I'm assuming that IS would fall with solar eclipse falling, so since there was no dot, and you said if there is no dot up, then to refresh MF, that means that we use MF right before the solar? If this is the case, say that moonfire falls mid solar eclipse, what would we do then? Thanks in advance!

• Hamlet · 03/07/10, 6:50 PM

Also, why would refreshing a DoT right after Eclipse procs be better than refreshing right before Eclipse starts (i.e. when the previous one ends)?

Knofle · 03/07/10, 8:18 PM

Well, the thought behind it is that moonfire is most likely up when you get lunar eclipse anyways, since one should keep a dot up for the idol buff. When solar eclipse pops and you apply insect swarm, you get all of your eclipsed wraths within the swarm. That was the theory behind it, at least. As I said, it started off as a thought experiment, and I haven't tried it out properly in a raiding environment, but it looked quite promising in the simulations. I'm happy if someone proves me wrong, or finds a better rotation. Food for thought and thinking outside the box is needed to make final conclusions.

Robot is even nice enough to give confidence intervals, it's a huge waste to not include them in the results. They go a long way toward showing how meaningful any tests are.

I'm not quite sure about what the confidence intervals are in this simulator, but if you mean the +/- number behind the actual dps, then I can say that it was quite stable at around +/- 20-30.
The simulations were 7 minute fights, and a sample of 700 fights per test.

If anyone want to experiment for themselves, and improve/tweak the possible rotation, the way I set up the dot rotations in robot was:
Moonfire:
Only execute this action if ((NOT(Target has Insect Swarm) AND NOT(Target has Moonfire)
OR ((Have >=1 Stacks of Lunar Eclipse) AND NOT(Target has Moonfire)

Insect Swarm:
Only execute this action if: ((Have >=1 Stacks of Solar Eclipse)
AND NOT(Target has Insect swarm)