• Black Arrow: 26405 AP gives a tooltip of 80590, ticks for 8059. 14101 AP gives a tooltip of 43640, ticks for 4364. I believe this suggests (RAP * .3 + 129) per tick. Playing around with different sets of AP that base damage jumps around a bit so this should only be taken as a rough estimate.
• Explosive Shot: same as above, I got the same RAP coefficient but base damage looked to be somewhere in the 440-460 range. How was 415.5 derived?
• Chimera Shot: this also has a 73.2% RAP coefficient. So total formula is (avg weapon dmg + RAP * .2) * 3 + RAP * .732 + 5385
• I retested Dire Beast/Murder of Crows. No change.
• Stampede is 25% regular pet damage (per pet) now

edit: Everything else matches what I tested last night and this morning. Great work!

Regarding Black Arrow, are you sure you're taking into account the 30% damage bonus from trap mastery as well as mastery? When I included that in my testing, the numbers matched the formula. I only did basic cursory testing to verify that the formulas worked as provided by MMO, so it's possible that upon more detailed inspection they could be wrong, but my initial testing got numbers which were consistent with the formula.

On explosive shot, it's difficult to verify a range with certainty without an extensive amount of testing. I only did enough cursory testing last night to verify that the numbers were reasonably close to what would be expected based on the formula provided by MMO. MMO has the range at 208 to 623, which averages out to 415.5. I'll do further testing when I have a chance to see whether it's off a bit.

For chimera shot, I saw the reference to the 73.2% RAP coefficient on MMO, but when I tested it, it didn't look like that coefficient actually was being used. My tests matched the formula once I removed it. Perhaps I made a mistake in my testing.

Looking at my notes, I was testing with a weapon with an average damage of 12, and 18603 RAP. My chimera shots were doing 16583 damage. Using the 73.2% RAP coefficient, the formula would be (12 + 18603 * .2) * 3 + .732 * 18603 + 5385 = 30200.196. When you remove that coefficient, you get (12 + 18603 * .2) * 3 + 5385 = 16582.8 which matches perfectly.

Thanks for doublechecking those others.

I've plugged in most of the changed numbers into my alpha site now (with the exception of the changes to thrill of the hunt and cobra strikes mechanics, which will require more effort to support). Based on those changes, in heroic T14 gear here's what my simulations are currently getting in terms of spec comparison in a single target raid buffed environment. These tests include murder of crows, fervor and glaive toss for talents.

SV: 14.4% increase from previous patch, 6% below BM
MM: 6.7% increase from previous patch, 3% below BM
BM: 10.6% increase from previous patch, currently highest output

I should note that BM currently may be the least accurately simulated as the changes to frenzy/focus fire are more difficult to model accurately in my current setup, so I probably need to improve that implementation. That may bring the numbers down some. I also haven't got cobra strikes stacking yet- that would probably bring the numbers up some. Also, I don't have stampede supported yet, which would likely buff BM more than any other spec.

I'm interested to see what results simcraft will get after the patch updates and how they will compare.

I believe you are correct about black arrow, so disregard my comment on that. For Chimera Shot I was actually going off the tooltip in game on beta - but your number seems correct so I guess the tooltip is just inaccurate.

Are you using glaive toss, fervor, and murder of crows just for the sake of something consistent or are those actually giving the best results? With glaive toss on the GCD I was getting better numbers for Power Shot. Especially for SV, they would get no benefit of Glaive Toss over Arcane Shot on single target. Also, Fervor looks weak compared to Dire Beast to me.

Just an FYI, I've been retesting the attack count of A Murder of Crows and I'm definitely seeing almost every cast in the range of 60-64 crow attacks. So I'm tweaking my calculations to assume 62 crow attacks on average for now.

A small clarification on Cobra Strikes. I verified that each proc adds 2 stacks to a maximum of 6 stacks. There were two plausible interpretations of the tooltip; this is the correct interpretation.

I did a bit of stampede testing today and here are some notes on the mechanics:
- The primary pet does full damage, the four secondary pets all do 25% damage each (the debuff seems to delay in application sometimes and they get in a full damage attack, but I assume they'll fix that bug)
- The stampede pets do not seem to benefit from bestial wrath
- The stampede pets do seem to benefit from BM mastery
- The stampede pets can proc frenzy, but when the hunter uses focus fire, it only interacts with the primary pet
- I didn't test if go for the throat procs benefit the stampede pets- has anyone been able to verify that?
- I can't tell if stampede pets can proc invigoration, as it doesn't seem to indicate which pet the proc came from

I've been working on a spreadsheet mostly for my own edification (Rivkah has been very up to date and accurate with his web app and I imagine most would prefer that anyway), but if you are interested in taking a look: http://www.esoth.com/files/mop/at_download/file. There are a few things to be done but I think most of the calculations are accurate. One of the advantages of it being a spreadsheets is that any errors are effectively open source.

A few things I've noticed with it:

• Both Fervor and Thrill of the Hunt support wildly different playstyles to fully maximize (I haven't implemented Lilbitters' comment about TotH not refreshing while currently up). Dire Beast is mostly just a set it and forget it ability but still out paces the other two options, even in BM spec. And even during TBW despite it not benefiting from it.
• Murder of Crows similarly outpaces its counterparts, although it is a bit more involved since it has such a high focus cost. This gives it better synergy with Fervor and TotH, but at least theoretically I seem to get best results from DB and MoC still.

I am hard pressed to see any advantage to Blink Strike in pvp or otherwise at the moment. Lynx Rush has a 100 yard range, so you don't even get the situationally important range benefit of Blink Strike - just the CD. But the CD is also a hazard because it is on the GCD.
Interesting. They also apply their usual pet family debuffs (probably not relevant in raiding). I suspect that this ability is not fully debugged yet, as the minor glyph (to make all of the pets the same) is just flat out broken. Have you tested whether they scale from AP? That would make its use similar to ele shamans' fire elemental in Cataclysm, where you wait for everything to proc before dropping it.

I was thinking this as well, but I looked more closely and Lynx Rush also says "The pet must be within 10 yards of the target to Lynx Rush.". So I assume the 100 yd range is so that if you're out of range of your pet it'll still cast, but the pet must be near the target in order for it to actually work. This, I assume, is where Blink Strike comes in. That being said, I haven't tested it much, so it's possible it doesn't work the way I think it does.

Stampede pets definitely scale from AP. I haven't tested it with the glyph, but from what I can tell they are basically just the same as a summoned pet in most mechanics, except for certain things which involve interaction with the hunter like focus fire and bestial wrath (it makes sense these would only apply to your primary pet). From what I understand they do seem to have done tweaks to avoid the issue with pet stats not updating like the fire elemental in Cata, but I haven't done detailed tests on how well it's working.

One issue with the current implementation of stampede is that they will use whatever's on autocast, which means a lot of micromanagement to make sure your stampede pets have the right abilities enabled for whatever you're doing. This won't be a problem for people who only raid, but if you do a variety of tasks you'll have to keep a close eye on it or you'll end up with pets taunting targets or wasting GCDs and focus casting dash. If you disable autocast on rabid to control it manually you'll have to remember to turn it back on for secondary pets for stampede as well.

I have been working on the 5.0 MM guide and have been analyzing Fervor and Thrill of the Hunt as well from a theoretical point of view. I agree with Esoth that Fervor and TotH support some different play styles. Their benefits come out roughly the same with a slight advantage to TotH in lucky proc situations but with a lot less control over when you get your focus boosts and a greater possibility of wasting some of the bonus focus.

Read on for more information if interested.

Some factors to consider first:

- Choice of focus dump: Definitely if AI works out to be the much better focus dump, then Fervor is the better option since you are not casting as many ASs to proc TotH or utilize the procs. If you are using AS as the focus dump, then TotH is probably the better option since is provides more benefit when using AS and since you are casting a lot of AS to proc TotH and a lot of ASs to utilize it. I have not yet gotten to the point in my analysis yet where I have determined which focus dump is better in 5.0 since I need to know final results for relative damage.

- 5.0 versus MoP: In 5.0, we are swimming with stats relatively to our stat budget, we can stack haste if desired to support an AI rotation if that works out best. However, at the start of MoP, we are going to be relatively stat starved for the current stat budgets per percent stats. Hence, haste levels are going to be lower, probably favoring an AS rotation initially.

- Single target or AoE fight: Fervor is strong in both cases. TotH can potentially be as strong as Fervor in single target fights, and they appear to come out about even in AoE fights. Combined with Bombardment, an AoE fight with TotH could start with 7 consecutive MSs in the following scenario: MS (40 focus and Bomb proc)-MSx3 (20 focus each since during Bomb and probable proc of TotH)-MS (focus free)-MS (20 focus due to TotH and new Bomb proc)-MS (focus free). In the theoretically lucky case of getting TotH procs on the first possible MS cast each time, you can potentially be able to cast 12 consecutive MSs if starting with 100 focus. With Fervor used during AoE, you can consistently perform 9 consecutive MSs if use Fervor after the 2nd MS.

- What the potential max DPS rotations are: The CS cycle now has a 9s CD, and we only need to perform 2 SSs per cycle to maintain Steady Focus. Furthermore, each SS regens 189% of the focus that it does today (not including the T13 2P bonus) since it regens 17 focus when the Steady Focus buff is up over the 9 it does today (or the 18 with the T13 2P). With just needing 3 MMM stacks for a free AI, this means on average we now need to do 4 to 5 SSs to proc a free AI. Thus, we get a free AI about every 2.4 cycles if doing the minimum number of SSs and more frequently if doing more.
-- Assuming an AS rotation, the maximum rotation is the following with ignoring the level 75 talents which can only be used once every several CS cycles and which would just replace an AS in the rotation when used (this is just the shot numbers without any order):
CS-SSx2-ASx4-AS/MMM AI
The is a tight rotation with a 1.5s SS cast, which just requires 5.4% haste from gear to achieve. You would need to reduce the SS cast to 1s, which would require 58.1% haste from gear, in order to save another GCD for a tight CS rotation. Just factoring in the shot costs/regens, this cycle loses about 101 focus per average cycle. This requires 11.22 FPS regen to support, which is pretty steep so we probably need another SS for:
CS-SSx3-ASx2-AS/MMM AI
This cycle delays the CS cycle by 0.5s at a 1.5s SS cast time, but is tight with a 1.333s SS cast time, which is every easy to reach in 5.0 but will be more difficult at the start of MoP. It requires 18.58% haste from gear to be tight. This cycle costs 64 focus per cycle on average, which only requires 7.1 FPS regen to support. With assuming the same 4 base focus regen, at that haste level we regen 4.75 FPS leaving a deficit of -2.35 FPS.
-- Assuming an AI rotation, the maximum DPS cycle is (with assuming for simplicity that an MMM AI procs are just added on that cycle pushing back the CS cast by at most 1s):
CS-SSx2-AIxX
The trouble is that there really is not a good value of X with a 9s cycle. X of 2 requires less than 0% haste and results in deadtime in the cycle (which can accomodate part of MMM AIs when they occur). An X of 3 requires a large 25.49% haste from gear. It also requires an average of 161 focus per average cycle time of 9.5s needing 16.95 FPS. So let us add a SS:
CS-SSx3-AIx2
This cycle is tight with a reasonable 16.6% haste from gear. It requires 94 focus per average cycle time of 9.5s needing about 9.9 FPS. With assuming the same 4 base focus regen, at that haste level we regen 4.66 FPS leaving a deficit of -4.35 FPS.
-- An improvement on the AI cycle takes advantage that at the 16.6% haste level that an AI cast is 1.97s, which is equivalent time to an AS and MMM AI. Hence, a CS cycle could be:
CS-SSx3-AIx2 (normal cycle)
CS-SSx3-AS-MMM AI-AI (MMM AI proc cycle)
This allows for a tight cycle every cycle. This rotation costs 79 focus on average per 9s cycle, requiring about 8.77 FPS to balance focus, resulting in a -4.11 FPS.

Considering that a 1.97s AI cast time is slower than the current cast time cut off for when AI is better to cast than AS, I assume that the AS rotation will be better if current damage ratios between the two shots hold, especially with the average focus cost ratio being slight better for an AS rotation since the AS cost is reduced by 2 and TotH if chosen results in even lower than 20 average focus cost. Will have to wait for the final judgment until I can compare actual damage of the shots, but for now I will assume the AS rotations.

Let's start with the easier of the two talents to theorycraft - Fervor. If used on CD and is used properly, such that it does not waste any focus, it works out to an average of 3.33 FPS (100 focus every 30s). That is a pretty major boost. This is enough to make the AS focus dump with 3 SSs be focus positive by about 1 FPS, allowing an extra AS to replace an SS once in a while (about every 4th CS cycle) to balance focus. Thus, we can do the max AS rotation about 25% of the time and the extra SS rotation about 75% of the time.

Now let us investigate the benefits of TotH on that same rotation. Per binomial probability, a proc should occur every 4 to 5 focus costing shots on average. With 3 to 5 focus costing shots per CS cycle, a proc should occur roughly every cycle on average, except for the fact that the next 3 ASs cast will not cost focus and provide any chance for a new proc. Thus, on average we can expect a proc roughly every other cycle. Hence, every 2 CS cycles of the maximum DPS cycle will cost roughly about 142 focus with one AI MMM proc and 1 TotH proc. This requires 7.88 FPS per second for still a deficit of -3.66 FPS. This roughly requires the extra SS cycle every other cycle on average to balance out focus usage.

Thus, theoretically TotH provides a little better DPS than Fervor in both the single target case; however, you have no control over the procs and cannot prevent it from proccing when you are high in focus already where you many end up wasting focus and reducing the benefit. With Fervor, you can control when you use it, but waiting until the most effective time to cast it is not using it off CD and reduces its benefits as well. Hence, either option is a fine choice for MM and depends on whether you want better control of your focus boost via Fervor or want potentially slightly better focus from TotH but with needing to manage the random procs on the fly.

For AoE situations, you can consistent 9 consecutive MSs with Fervor, while you can do anywhere between 7 to 12 with TotH depending on how lucky you are with the procs. This averages out to about the same, and once again, comes done to preference.

Edit: While reworking the level 60 talent section in my guide, I realized that I forgot about the fact that Fervor also provides pet focus, increasing your pet's DPS. This benefit breaks the virtual tie and makes Fervor the clear choice in my mind.

For non-MMs, all MSs can refresh the TotH buff, but MMs with Bombardment saving 20 focus, MSs cast with both Bombardment and TotH up cost no focus and will not have a chance to refresh the proc.