Elitist Jerks [MoP] Marksmanship Guide

03/03/13, 6:05 AM   #46
Whitefyst
Great Tiger

Orc Hunter

Draenor
 Originally Posted by Lokrick There is a special case which is worth looking at, which falls in the realm of "experts could benefit from this": when you cast a steady shot pair, 25% of the time they will both proc master marksman. Starting from there, is it worth fishing for MMM procs? (i.e., the first two SS were a sunk cost). To get a feel for the technique, I compare the damage of different shot sequences over 6 seconds based on your damage numbers above, where the last chunk is the fraction of an AS that would fit in the remaining time. [...] The most variant at the moment is one that can actually be applied fairly easily: f. SS AS... 245,905 Basically fish for one proc, using the sequence SS AS MMM? AS... where the MMM is only if the proc happened. That nets 287,800, which beats AS spam with a fairly simply shot decision.
Yes, very good points, which I will need to ponder on some more. Here are my thoughts as I do so:

1) Considering that there is a 25% chance that the SS pair will net 2 stacks of MMM, here is the fishing probabilities for the scenarios listed:

 Scenario Damage Overall Chance Chance For the scenario a. 1xSS MMM AS 329,695 12.5% 50% b. 2xSS MMM AS 289,400 25% 50% c. 3xSS MMM AS 249,105 31.25% 37.5% d. 4xSS AS 125,020 23.4% 6.25% e. AS 286,200 0% 0%

2) Another factor not considered is that with chaining SSs the potential for focus overcapping and losing focus. As we should all know, overcapping focus is not necessarily bad. It is okay to overcap when the result is still the maximum DPS that you can perform. It is not okay to overcap when the wasted focus could have been used for more damage. Now we know that until SS is GCD capped that each SS provides a constant 23.32 focus per cast when the SF buff is present regardless of your current haste level. Thus, the 2 SSs in a SS pair usually generate about 47 focus. On top of that you also have the focus gained for the focus free MMM AI cast. Assuming no latency and 12.93% haste from gear, the MMM AI regen is 4.52 focus. Here is the total focus gain with the SS spam when fishing for MMM AI procs:

 Scenario #SSs part SS pair Focus Gained by SS set and MMM AI e 0 51.16 a 1 74.48 b 2 97.8 c 3 121.12 d 4 144.44

Obviously, scenarios c and d are bad since they result in both lower DPS in the scenario and also in focus overcapping which results in more damage loss. Unless you had just fully depleted your focus (which is not easy to do exactly), scenario b will almost always result in overcapping focus as well, which may or may not be a problem depending on how much focus is lost. Scenario a will only result in overcapping focus if you start with greater than 25 focus when you start the SS pair. For the currently modeled rotation, you are only usually below 25 focus after casting CS when using AS as the focus dump about 50% from a rough estimate looking at a sim. Hence, unless you can redesign the rotation to more fully deplete your focus more often without losing DPS, even scenario a is going to result in overcapping focus and possibly losing some DPS potential about 50% of the time. Hence, focus constraints limit the expected DPS values from these scenarios.

3) As you mentioned, your analysis did not account for WQ procs. Scenarios c and d are the worst cases concerning WQ procs; however, since they are poor options from both the DPS and focus capping analyses, they do not matter anyway. For scenarios a, the probabality is that over that 6s period that you are going to cast at least 1 SS anyway since the most common CS cycle requires 3 SSs currently. Hence, scenario a really has no WQ loss. Scenario b has a slight WQ loss since some CS cycles do require a 4th SS currently, but these are rare.

4) During the KS phase, which is about 20% of the fight, you have further complications to the fishing for MMM proc scenario. The roughly 1.67 to 2 KSs you can perform on average per CS cycle reduces the number of SSs that you need to maintain focus level since they cost no focus with some of them replacing ASs. Thus, you are even more likely to focus overcap when fishing for MMM AI procs. Furthermore. although it may be beneficial to delay to an AS to fish for an MMM AI proc, it definitely is not worthwhile to delay KSs since they do about 3 times the damage of an AS. Hence, you defintely should not fish for MMM AI procs during the KS phase.

5) This situation also does not apply to any scenario in which we are using AI as the focus dump, which is during the CA phase and when sufficiently hasted outside of it. This is partly because of how much more damage AI does than AS but also because of how much more focus AI costs that you have to generally cast more SSs anyway.

6) During RF, many of the options are poor as well. Obviously, if you are using AI during RF, item 5) applies. However, it you are using AS during RF, the listed scenarios generate even more focus and focus overcapping potential due to the addition 4 FPS due to RR. This makes scenario b worse during a RF while scenario a may still be fine although it may be adversely affected on some cycles.

7) So the next question is how often would this situation apply? If we remove the CA Phase, which is roughly 15 to 20% of the fight, that leaves 80 to 85% left. If we then remove the KS phase, which is another 15 to 20%, that leaves 60 to 70%. With factoring in reduced benefits during RF, I will just assume that the situation potentially only applies to 60% of the fight for simplicity. As mentioned previously, the chance for an SS pair to proc 2 stacks of MMM is only 25%, that reduces the effective period to only about 15% of the fight. I will then conservatively remove another 5% of the fight due to scenarios where you have higher levels of focus before starting the SS pair and need to not cast a 3rd or 4th SS to avoid overcapping. These results in the situation being applicable for only about 10% of the CS cycles. That is a small number. So the question is whether the potential DPS benefit is worth the monitoring for the 10% of the CS cycles where the potential gain may exist. I say that it is not, especially considering that you are not guaranteed to get the third stack with either the 3rd or 4th SS in a row.

Note though that the 10% can be increased some by the scenarios were you had 1 stack going into the SS pair and the SS pair granted 1 more stack or had 2 stacks going into the SS pair and the SS pair granted no additional stacks of MM. Both of these cases result in 2 stacks of MMM after the SS pair.

However, the fishing chances get reduced by the scenarios where either the first or second SS in the pair provides the 3rd stack already.

8) I further believe that MMM AI fishing is not a good option since with the best scenario, a, you are doing 1 more SS to get the MMM AI and then using ASs to fill. You can get that same benefit from switching the order around and casting that third SS where it makes sense focus-wise in the CS cycle. Basically, scenario a is a 3 SS CS cycle, which as I stated is currently by far the most common CS cycle in modeling when using AS as the focus dump. Since you are still casting the most common number of SSs, it really does not matter much if you cast it right after the SS pair or later in the CS cycle. Either way, you have the same chance to proc an MMM AI.

Summary

Although it may be possible that in a very small set of situations that MMM AI fishing may provide a small DPS benefit (and I am not certain that it really ever can be a DPS benefit), I do not think that the small potential DPS benefit is worth bothering with it due to the small percentage of CS cycles on which it can potentially be a benefit (that reduces the possible DPS benefit per average CS cycle), the required monitoring to know when to perform the fishing properly, and the fact that normal CS cycles will usually provide the same net benefit anway without the potential risk of overcapping focus and resultant DPS loss due to not implementing the fishing ideally. Some god-like hunters with incredibly high situational awareness and great decision making may be able to eek out a tiny fraction more DPS, but I do not think that most mortal hunters would benefit from trying this and would realistically probably hurt their DPS instead of increasing it.

There is very little (if any) "bang for the buck" here where it is not worthwhile further complicating the MM priority rules for it.

Last edited by Whitefyst : 03/03/13 at 6:11 AM.

 03/03/13, 5:40 PM #47 Anmarie Glass Joe   Анмари Blood Elf Hunter   Свежеватель душ (EU) While at the subject... Is it worth of switching to t15 in favor of better primary stats, or will 4t14 still be viable haste-wise? Lame question, agreed, but t15 bonuses overall don't seem to favor MM much.
03/04/13, 3:29 PM   #48
wilegenuis
Von Kaiser

Troll Hunter

 Originally Posted by Anmarie While at the subject... Is it worth of switching to t15 in favor of better primary stats, or will 4t14 still be viable haste-wise? Lame question, agreed, but t15 bonuses overall don't seem to favor MM much.
FD shows the data clearly. T14 2pcs bonus is around 1.5K DPS, T14 4pcs bonus is around 1.7K DPS. Replacing a iLvl 496 tier item with iLvl 522 item is an extra of around 300 agility and 500 secondary stat that can be as high as 1.7K DPS.
Therefore I would not replace my T14 4pcs bonus for a LFR version of the new loot and as I like the extra haste I would not replace it for a single pcs of a iLvl 522 item. For 2 pcs of iLvl 522 items, the return of agility clearly is better (even if the T14 level tier item was upgraded already).

03/05/13, 9:53 AM   #50
fearin
Glass Joe

Frostmane (EU)
 Originally Posted by Whitefyst •Ancient Zandalari Knowledge (New) Learn the ancient Zandalari secrets of taming Direhorns. Instant. Taught by Ancient Tome of Dinomancy.Yeah new pet to tame. Too bad no room in my stable. What buffs does a Direhorn apply?
I found this information:

 Second is the Direhorn — basically a totally awesome triceretops. It’s a new pet family, tenacity by default, with the Reflective Armor Plating ability to reflect spells in front of it for 6 seconds.
source: Patch 5.2 Hunter Changes Guide | Warcraft Hunters Union

Probably OP in PvP but little to no use in PvE.

 Elitist Jerks [MoP] Marksmanship Guide