
Originally Posted by Snipehunter
I'm drawn to Potent Venom for the following reason. I was comparing damage/mana for arcane shot, and serpent sting.
Assumptions: 5000 RAP, 35% crit
Arcane shot normal = 492 + .15*5000 = 1242
Arcane shot crit = 1242 * 2.3 = 2856.6
Arcane shot normal mana = 540
Arcane shot crit mana (with TotH) = 0.6*540 = 324
Arcane shot normal damage/mana = 1242/540 = 2.3
Arcane shot crit damage/mana = 2856.6/324 = 8.82
Weighted arcane shot damage/mana = 0.65*2.3 + 0.35*8.82 = 4.58
Serpent sting:
Assuming 5/5 imp stings and 3/3 Potent Venom
Serpent sting damage = 0.1*5000 + 1210 = 1710
Serpent sting mana = 680 * (1-0.3) = 476
Serpent sting damage/mana = 1710/476 = 3.59
So yes, serpent sting is less damage/mana than arcane shot, but now the next step is to compare the "lost" damage from a GCD used by serpent sting to the next 15s where your damage is increased by 3%.
So in 15s, lets say you just chain cast steady shots. With a 3.00 bow and 15% quiver, you have a autoshot timer of 2.61s and a steady shot cast time of 1.5s (with haste it would be faster, but let's establish a lower bound here)
In 15s you can fire off 15 / 2.61 = 5 autoshots
In 15s you can fire off 15 / 1.5 = 10 steady shots
So 15 shots have 3% increased damage. I'm getting lazy, but let's assume each steady shot and auto shot hits for 1200 damage. (all without critting) (This is a conservative estimate at lvl 80, esp. the no-crit part).
15 * 1200 * 0.03 = 540 more damage.
Adding this on to the damage of serpent sting, 1710 + 540 = 2250
Mana cost of serpent sting = 476
Damage/mana = 2250 / 476 = 4.73
This is now higher than the damage/mana of arcane shot, and this is assuming that the subsequent steady and autoshots don't crit. As a lower bound, it shows that the 3% damage over 15s can and does indeed outweigh the lost GCD which you could've used on an arcane shot.
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That requires Imp Stings where the points could have been spent elsewhere. And to get PV you have to drop points in Master Tactician or Hunting Party, or ultimately also Explosive Shot (which looks to be the least effective choice to drop).
And you calculate against Arcane Shot which is already rather ineffective. Lets try to calculate against Steady Shot and Kill Shot since they will be the staple of any spec.
Normal Steady Shot of a 100 DPS weapon with 65 DPS ammo against a 30% armoured target: 280 (normalized average weapondamage for a 100 DPS weapon) + 182 (assuming the ammo will also be normalized to 2.8 speed) + (5000*.2+280) = 1742. 1742*0.7 = 1219
A crit = 1219*2.3 = 2805
Normal mana: 280
Manareturn with TotH: 0.6*280 = 168
Normal DPM: 4.35
Crit DPM: 25.04
Overall DPM: 4.35*0.65 + 25.04*0.35 = 11.59 DPM
Normal Kill Shot, same stats obviously, and assuming it is normalized to 2.8 speed too, and the target is below 20%: (280 + (5000*.15+325) + 785)*0.7 = 1498
A crit = 1498*2.3 = 3445
Normal mana: 475
Manareturn with Thrill: 0.6*475 = 285
Normal DPM: 3.15
Crit DPM: 18.13
Overall DPM: 3.15*0.65 + 18.13*0.35 = 8.39 DPM
So in the deparment of manaefficiency it isn't terribly great compared to what is to be expected to be used, and I think we can expect better weapons than 100 DPS, perhaps even greater ammo as well (and I don't know if ammo has an impact on Kill Shot either, I left it out at this time). However, if experience shows mana is a non-issue then it would actually be a boost to the DPS. Since talented up the sting isn't that far behind in DPG (Damage Per GCD), but the added 3% is going to help it along enough.
The losses in talents are going to hurt it though.
[EDIT] Damn, forgot to add Sniper Training for both shots. I think we can safely assume that it will be a great talent to use.