Well to be fair, I cant think of any other class where their main nuke is obtained post-60 (or 50 now, with some recent change). edit: FfB I guess, for particular spec mages.
It's just so important to have it beyond the level 30 "depth" in the talent tree tiers.
Monty Hall problem = most ridiculous over-hyped bad math in history. The 'aids to understanding' fail to mention that once the door is opened, you eliminated a possibility. Once door 3 is opened, switching from 1 to 3 is no longer an option hence one of those 'Switching wins with probability 1/3' becomes 'Switching wins with probability 1/2' and the other completely eliminated as 1 of 3 solutions. Or... you can say that if switching is 2/3 chance to win... then NOT switching is also 2/3 chance to win.
There's nothing "bad math" about the Monty Haul problem. It's an example of where the answer to a math scenario runs counter to what the vast majority of people expect it to be.
I brought it up in the context of the coin flipping discussion, which is another example math that runs counter to what some people expect. The idea being that the Monty Haul problem is "a step beyond" the coin problem in the number of people it confuses and that get the wrong answer at first examination.
Yeah, that kinda bugged me as well. Boosting Serpent to the point of raiding viability causes an equal and opposite loss in DPS if we're tasked with keeping Scorpid up, which could become more desirable in WLK due to Blizzard's (desire to) shift away from mitigation/avoidance as being the primary aim of tanking specs. This glyph only seems to exacerbate the problem.
Or wait... if base mitigation drops, does that make Scorpid less desirable as a boss debuff?
Either way... Scorpid's looking on shaky ground right now :p
Scorpid is less important now. Not just because it doesn't do squat for us peronally while Serpent appears to get a healthy dose of 'buff, the other other other white meat', but simply because what it did was help tanks achive cruching immune. That's gone. And the more avoidance a tank has the more effective Sorpid becomes as a real damagereducer. At 50% avoidance it is 10% effective damagereduction, at 30% it is only 7.14%. A fight would have to be very tough on healers right now to make Scorpid effective again.
Serpent doing respectable damage and all, I could even see both Survs and BMs getting the Serpent Glyph too as it would lower the requirement on refreshing it early (though the wording on the Glyph doesn't mention that it has to be your Serpent Sting, unlike the Arcane Glyph).
Obviously MM couldn't care less about that one with Chimera. But also since it is 'only' 3 seconds (one tick) I doubt it is a major Glyph, more likely a lesser.
Aside from granting Serpent an extra 20% damage per GCD, it also brings Serpent's effective cooldown for BM and SV hunters to exactly once every 12 GCDs, which is an integer multiple of the 4 GCD frequency for Explosive and Arcane Shots, which means that their cooldowns won't crash into each other, resulting in a slightly larger net gain in DPS than just the 20% extra damage (assuming Arcane and Explosive do more damage than Steady, of course, and they damn well better... I'm over Steady-Spam in a big way...)
Quit skirting the issue and back up your concepts. Go to my post, review my math and modify it to reflect what you believe to be the superior/accurate math/concepts.
How close your results are to the correct ones is irrelevant in the discussion. You could round every number to the nearest 10 if you wanted to and, depending on the numbers, it might so happen that the result is very close the what it would be if you didn't round. However, that doesn't change the fact that the calculations are completely wrong and the fact that the end result was close was luck/random.
The fact is that saying you rounded the results because you don't care about accuracy is ok and correct. Saying you rounded the results because you only care about a short period of time and your results are accurate for that situation is incorrect.
There's nothing "bad math" about the Monty Haul problem. It's an example of where the answer to a math scenario runs counter to what the vast majority of people expect it to be.
I brought it up in the context of the coin flipping discussion, which is another example math that runs counter to what some people expect. The idea being that the Monty Haul problem is "a step beyond" the coin problem in the number of people it confuses and that get the wrong answer at first examination.
The key piece of information that most people miss (including myself for quite a while ) is that the host knows which door has the car, and deliberately avoids opening it. This eliminates a couple of possibilities that would normally make the 'switch' vs. 'no switch' option the same. IME, in most cases where 'people who should know better' get it wrong, it's because they didn't pay attention to the fine print in the setup.
Seriously? So we have a near useless ability in Kill Shot now?
Yeappers. Kill Shot looks to be headed the way of the dodo for PvE rotations. heck, more like a stillborn abortion. Peh, I was hoping we could join the massive 'EXECUTE RANGE!' spammage but oh well...
The really funny thing about the Focused Aim talent is that it ONLY affects Steady Shot. With Focused Fire you at least got the 2% damage bonus from picking up the talent. Focused Aim does nothing until level 50 and you can get the talent at level 10.
FfB isn't so much as a primary nuke as it is a compromise so that elemental builds aren't screwed over by excessive immunities or resistances. While they won't do as much damage as their normal choice of nukes, they'll at least have a spell which uses the bulk of their talent points unlike two particular situations where certain specs had to essentially respec or use untalented abilities (Hydross and Al'ar)
FfB isn't so much as a primary nuke as it is a compromise so that elemental builds aren't screwed over by excessive immunities or resistances. While they won't do as much damage as their normal choice of nukes, they'll at least have a spell which uses the bulk of their talent points unlike two particular situations where certain specs had to essentially respec or use untalented abilities (Hydross and Al'ar)
Yeah true, I think that's how its supposed to function, but at the moment there is a spec that is designed around using FfB regardless of target immunities, as it simply does far far more damage. Being beta tho, damage tuning still needs to be done, so I doubt it's intentional. (It's also double dipping effects right now, such as getting the bonus from CoE two times, Elemental Precision two times, etc).
I'm hoping that pet special crit KC is simply a small buff that the *real* one applies as a supplementary effect. Because it's in the area of 5 dps or something ridiculous right now. edit: oh thats a KS link, not KC. My point stands tho!
FfB is experiencing the same wonderful mechanics as the Frost Lightning Breath chimeras have, so it's double dipping :P
I would really love to see KC completely reworked. If Blizzard doesn't want it to be a steady damage increase, put some real meaty bite into it and put some restrictions so it'll feel like we really are giving the command to go for the kill rather than "Meh, hit a little harder please *prod prod*"
Glyph of Trueshot Aura: Increases the attack power bonus of Trueshot Aura by an additional 2%.
Just to put a number on this, according to the wording, that's 2% of 225 AP/RAP (level 80 TSA) or a jaw dropping 4.5 AP/RAP non-scaling to the raid. The hell were they thinking? Here's to hoping TSA is just mid redesign.
Just to put a number on this, according to the wording, that's 2% of 225 RAP (level 80 TSA) or a jaw dropping 4.5 AP/RAP to the raid. The hell were they thinking? Here's to hoping TSA is just mid redesign.
I knew 2% of the hunter's RAP would be too much to hope for and it's obviously counter to standard Blizzard nomenclature...
Oh well... Here's hoping TSA would scale with Int >.> (2AP per Int? yes please! Sure we don't get the crit from agi but two AP per int would make having the stat on our gear a whole lot less painful. Or vanilla RAP scaling would do I guess.)
Oh yes, one more thing... Blue post in regards to the Inscription profession:
The core of the profession is the ability to make glyphs. Glyphs are what you apply to your spells and abilities to enhance them in different ways. We have two categories, we have major and minor glyphs. The major ones are all very core, substantive glyphs that affect the power of your class in one way or another. The minor glyphs are intended more for flavor or convenience. Players are able to use up to three major glyphs and a few minor glyphs, so they get to pick and choose from all the glyphs that are available for their class…so it's really just another form of character customization. Other than that the profession has some other auxiliary components such as the ability to make scrolls [that] provide buffs for other characters. Also they are able to create these tarot cards that are used as quest turn-ins that return random items
If I read that right... we have three Major glyphs, they've removed the 'vanilla' glyphs so now there's major and minor (cosmetics).
Longevity affects growl now, that should help with threat.
With cower costing no focus now, I like Improved Cower a lot better. With Longevity it has a 14 second cooldown as well, meaning with a 10 second duration of 20% less damage, there will only be 4-second windows where it's not up.
Didn't get much chance to do testing before the servers dropped, and I was too busy skilling up engineering (the 120 dps gun and 40 crit rating scope trainer recipes at the top provided a lot of incentive for that). But I think they cranked up the damage on max rank Steady Shot too.
If you aren't a goblin, why not?
If you are a goblin you rule
In relation to the kill command thing, yes we have gained dps from the unlinking of autoshot and the addition of ammo damage to steady shot. But steady shot has also been increased to 2.0 speed from 1.5 and if I recall they nerfed the damage on it a bit to compensate for the other changes too. So I'm not sure what the end result is when you mix in all the changes, buff or nerf. That being said, I think having kill command as a key portion of hunter dps further complicated the ability to balance BM with the other two trees, since it obviously scaled far better with BM than the other specs, not even counting focused fire. So relying on it as a reasonable chunk of hunter dps is somewhat problematic if there's any hope to have more balance in the three trees this expansion. I hope that in the end it keeps the long cooldown but gets a sizable buff- having a triggerable pet cooldown is nice but the current version is seriously meh.
I think Survival was given a huge DPS buff in this patch:
Hunting Party (Tier 10) now procs off of Arcane, Steady, and Explosive Shot critical strikes now. There is no cooldown on the effect now.
Lock and Load (Tier 4) increased to 10/20/30% chance to proc when you sting a target. (Previously was 5/10/15%)
Wyvern Sting (All ranks) now does its full damage in 6 sec. (Previously did it in 12 sec)
So I think all the napkin math on L&L several pages back needs to be redone, sorry guys.
Also, with Noxious stings NYI are they going to change it maybe?
How close your results are to the correct ones is irrelevant in the discussion. You could round every number to the nearest 10 if you wanted to and, depending on the numbers, it might so happen that the result is very close the what it would be if you didn't round. However, that doesn't change the fact that the calculations are completely wrong and the fact that the end result was close was luck/random.
The fact is that saying you rounded the results because you don't care about accuracy is ok and correct. Saying you rounded the results because you only care about a short period of time and your results are accurate for that situation is incorrect.
If something has a 15% chance to trigger per event, the average number is 6.6666666. So from that, we would expect a proc every 99.9999999 seconds for a cast that happens every 15 seconds. For a 420-second time frame, based on these numbers, one would expect 4.2 procs. If I use 7 instead of 6.66666666, it becomes a proc every 105 seconds, which means 4.0 procs in 420 seconds. For that window, it's 4. We could count the 0.2 as that chance for 1 additional proc in that window but only once out of 5 instances for this scenario. To me, 4 is good enough to count on for a 7 minute fight.
0.2 doesn't translate in what the game does. I don't get a fraction's value of a proc; it either does or it doesn't. But as I had stated, I wasn't interested in that 0.2 because I understood that for a 7-minute fight the proc would happen 4 times. I was only looking at 7 minute windows one at a time because I chose to. People can argue and try to force me to consider larger windows and use 6.66 instead of 7. No. If I have a dollar and change in my pocket and someone asks me how much money I have, I'll say I have a buck. I there happens to be those extra twenty cents in my pocket as well, then I have something to toss in the change jar and let it all add up to tons of money over a long period of time. It's good enough like that, because it's all that mattered to me. So people can accept that, or they can keep discussing it and trying to correct me by saying I'm wrong because there was extra change in my pocket that I didn't care so much about. Whatever.
Separation Anxiety and Animal Handler are NYI as well. Master's Call still doesn't work right with Auto-Cast,a and Tranq Shot appears to still be broken.
If you aren't a goblin, why not?
If you are a goblin you rule
I really dislike the notion that Kill Shot was nerfed. Was it even available in the damn game? Also if it's still a 45 yard base shot then it's still pretty strong pvp-wise. The biggest thing the change did was destroy Sniper Training. As if that talent didn't have problems already. It would need to be a 100% crit strike chance if KS is gonna keep that huge cooldown.
There are two problems, Trogdor. The first problem is with your post: Why would you spend all the effort running those calculations and intentionally introduce a 5% error in one of the numbers? Math is only as accurate as the least accurate number, you can't leave part of your work as napkin math. What you got is a bunch of extra work for some extra digits at the end that you have to round off anyways, giving the same result that napkin math would have.
The second problem has nothing to do with your post. It's got to do with your understanding of probability. Sample length doesn't matter for a god damn for determining the average. Sample length determines the variance of your estimation, and the standard deviation of your measurements, which quantify the likelyhood of being close to your mean. But 20/3 has much more predictive significance than 7, despite the fact that 7 is an obtainable value and 20/3 is not. The reason is, it accounts for all possibilities and their relative likelyhoods. It combines all possible fights of that duration (or, by extension, any duration). 7 only accounts for the most likely possibility. Not a bad estimator, but definitely an inferior one because it accounts for strictly less information. Furthermore, 7 is only the most likely in a fight of the duration you chose, whereas 20/3 is extensible to any fight of any length.
Why is 20/3 so much better than 7? Because you don't know beforehand which way the dice are going to fall. And 20/3 takes that into account by considering all possibilities. 7 ignores most scenarios and assumes that the fight will progress a certain way. Yes, you "don't get a fraction's value of a proc; it either does or it doesn't," but you don't know beforehand which one you're going to get, so a weighted average has better predictive power than either number. (Besides, it's not like you're going to be in a single fight with this talent spec.)
So what it boils down to is this: while you didn't make that big a mistake calculationally, you've proven by your justification of that mistake that you have no idea what the fuck you're talking about. The number that you got isn't far from something significant, but the number that you got has no significance whatsoever and you don't understand why. We're trying to explain the theoretic background behind averages, and your response is that it was close enough, so what difference does it make? You don't even understand what it is we're talking to you about, because you keep going back to the inciting calculations instead of your misguided justifications of them.
I really dislike the notion that Kill Shot was nerfed. Was it even available in the damn game? Also if it's still a 45 yard base shot then it's still pretty strong pvp-wise. The biggest thing the change did was destroy Sniper Training. As if that talent didn't have problems already. It would need to be a 100% crit strike chance if KS is gonna keep that huge cooldown.
It's purely a PvP finisher now, which is what Blizzard wants I guess. With the knockback it has no place in PvE rotations anymore.
Sniper Training is still useful for PvE in that it boosts Steady Shot damage and (more important) Explosive Shot by 2%/4%/6%.
Kill Shot's huge cooldown plus the (apparently only 1-second) knockdown completely wrecks its PvE utility... I suspect they made it a knockdown (instead of, say, a 1-second snare) precisely to avoid Master's Call or Surefooted synergy... but it seems to me that the 35-second (!) cooldown is a failed attempt to stop it from being a cloth-destroyer in PvP. KS + Readiness + KS could be done in under 1.5, and with Sniper Training it would still annihilate any sub-30% clothie.
Once again, an ability that straddles PvE and PvP seems to have fallen into the void in between the two.
Having said that, Blizzard is obviously willing to experiment, and despite forum hyperbole seem to actually have a game plan here... they are clearly trying to improve our ability to 'finish off' targets without boosting our baseline DPS... with any luck, Kill Shot (and Kill Command) will continue to be reincarnated until they become useful.
@Trogdor: You can't seriously argue that rounding 5% out of a calculation is fine, but ignoring the effect of Noxious Venom (a mere 3%) is an error, can you?
08/22/08, 12:47 AM
) is that the host knows which door has the car, and deliberately avoids opening it. This eliminates a couple of possibilities that would normally make the 'switch' vs. 'no switch' option the same. IME, in most cases where 'people who should know better' get it wrong, it's because they didn't pay attention to the fine print in the setup.
Similar Threads
