It has worked fine for me, just realize it's going to eat all 3 charges right away. If you attempt a few more high damage moves because you think your md is still there and do more damage than the initial explosive shot ticks somehow then you're going to out threat the MD pretty easily. Also it's quite easy to get an auto shot in there before the 3rd MD hit goes off, so the last tick along with an aimed shot can quite often come after MD is used up.
Misdirection doesn't have all of its charges eaten "right away" when pulling with explosive. Each tick of explosive uses one charge of misdirection, however, so if you intend to pull with that shot it's best to be moving slightly so you don't waste a charge on an auto-shot. Alternatively, pull with a combination of steady/arcane/auto.
It's called Bloodlust, not Heroism. What kind of pansy name is Heroism, anyway?
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It has worked fine for me, just realize it's going to eat all 3 charges right away. If you attempt a few more high damage moves because you think your md is still there and do more damage than the initial explosive shot ticks somehow then you're going to out threat the MD pretty easily. Also it's quite easy to get an auto shot in there before the 3rd MD hit goes off, so the last tick along with an aimed shot can quite often come after MD is used up.
Group with someone->cast MD on him->throw an explosive shot at a random mob (target dummy doesn't work)->check on omen how much threat you got and how much he has. Or if you don't have omen, check default threat meters on tooltip.
It has worked fine for me, just realize it's going to eat all 3 charges right away. If you attempt a few more high damage moves because you think your md is still there and do more damage than the initial explosive shot ticks somehow then you're going to out threat the MD pretty easily. Also it's quite easy to get an auto shot in there before the 3rd MD hit goes off, so the last tick along with an aimed shot can quite often come after MD is used up.
Actually, I was doing Sartharion pulls last night, and the behavior I noticed with ES and MD is that the application of the ES dot, which causes no damage, will use one charge, then each of the first two ticks of damage will use another charge each. This means that the third damage tick will go off when you have no MD charges left, and if your first two didn't crit and the third one did, you could very well pull aggro from the tank. I recommend using AS and autos for MD charges, and save ES until the tank has built up a little aggro.
Actually, I was doing Sartharion pulls last night, and the behavior I noticed with ES and MD is that the application of the ES dot, which causes no damage, will use one charge, then each of the first two ticks of damage will use another charge each. This means that the third damage tick will go off when you have no MD charges left, and if your first two didn't crit and the third one did, you could very well pull aggro from the tank. I recommend using AS and autos for MD charges, and save ES until the tank has built up a little aggro.
This is exactly what I saw when I tested it out with my pet. Wiping even just once due to a ES/MD flub in sunwell makes me never want to pull with that combo in a raid. For spammed MD it's arguable; ES hits very hard and crits very often; 2 ticks of it may be better than three other shots. For pulling I use aimed, auto, steady.
Noticed the MD issues and when I need to pull I start with ArS>Aimed and an auto shot that goes off, this way I can have ES up sooner than starting with Aimed, and get time to apply SrS.
I've read a lot of comments in this thread regarding expose weakness and 100% uptime with 2/3 talents, which is simply not true. It's very close, and varies in different situations, but it's still not 100%.
In a perfect fight as modeled by the spreadsheet, I shoot in the range of around 1.1 shots per second which I gather is fairly average. Then in 7 seconds, I shoot 7.7 times. Assuming a crit rate of 50%, that's an average of 3.85 crits in this period which results in a 1.4% chance of expose weakness not being up again. And this is vastly simplifying the model - which needs to take into account that sometimes you crit more and sometimes you crit less in those 7, then calculate the average time it takes to get it back up again after it falls off, etc. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if it results in 3% or even higher downtime in a "perfect" fight.
Of course, most fights aren't stationary and you'll output less (sometimes significantly less) than 1.1 shots per second. I may be wrong here, but I also believe that volley does not proc expose (not totally sure on this though) so any fight, like trash, where you use volley a decent amount will result in less expose uptime with 2/3. Not to mention that most fights where dps truly matters, you rarely have the luxury of shooting in place the entire fight.
This is pretty much an estimated guess, but with 2/3 expose your average uptime during an entire raid will be somewhere in the 80% range and 3/3 will put you somewhere in the 90% range.
While expose is only worth about 400-500 ap, and 10% of that is 40-50 ap, a very small number in the grand scheme of things, you have to ask yourself if that's worth putting a point into over other talents such as sniper training, trap mastery, resourcefulness, hunting party, etc. depending on your playstyle and group composition. For example, I would probably never bother with sniper training because my raid usually runs with an enhancement shaman that has improved strength of earth totem - which means I'm either within 30 yards of the boss or I lose out on at least 26 agility from the totem, and very likely 281 agility since I'm not going to be affected by horn of winter or a non-talented earth.
I recognize that in many situations, a talent setup with 2/3 expose is probably one of the highest dps specs, I'd also like to point out that a.) it's not 100% uptime no matter how much you crit, and b.) depending on your raiding situation, you may just want to fill it out anyway because it actually gives (some) dps while other talents don't.
Basically the math for Expose Weakness was done in TBC. In layman's terms while 2/3 won't give 100% uptime, it gives significantly more uptime over 1/3 with only a marginal improvement in uptime if you go 3/3.
7/2.11 = 3.3 Auto Shots
7/1.5 = 4.6 Special Shots.
Which is 3.3+4.6 = 7.9 shots in 7 seconds.
With close to 52-71% crit rating minimum 7.9/2 = 3.95 shots will crit.
And minimum 3.95*0.66 = 2.6 of those shots will trigger EW.
I could probably go with 1/3 EW, but for movement fights that might be a bad idea.
So 2/3 is enough, 3/3 is a wasted point.
Keep in mind that there are "shot orientated talents", procs and buffs adding higher crit and haste ratings.
I did some calculations over Improved Serpent Sting by looking at some wws logs for Patchwerk.
2/3 imp Stings adds around 24.7dps
I then looked at how much 2/5 imp Hawk + glyph would add only by giving faster Auto Shots.
Around 43 dps just on the Auto Shot's, and more if haste rating is lower.
So the overall speed will give a higher gain pr. point then the % on stings pr. point if I'm correct?
7/2.11 = 3.3 Auto Shots
7/1.5 = 4.6 Special Shots.
Which is 3.3+4.6 = 7.9 shots in 7 seconds.
With close to 52-71% crit rating minimum 7.9/2 = 3.95 shots will crit.
And minimum 3.95*0.66 = 2.6 of those shots will trigger EW.
... the minimum number of crits after 7.9 shots is zero. Also, at least one of those specials is Explosive Shot, which counts as three hits, not one
If you've just triggered EW, then with 1 point in EW, and at 10 shots per 7 seconds and a 50% crit rate, the odds of not refreshing it before it falls off is ( 1 - 0.5 * 0.33 ) raised to the 8th power... or about 16%. Therefore, with 1/3 EW, you have about 84% uptime. Similarly, with 2/3 EW you have 98% uptime, and with 3/3 EW you have 99.9% uptime.
Although that 3rd point could be argued for pre-WLK, now that we have so much haste, and ES ticking away, the difference between 2/3 and 3/3 is epsilon.
Actually, I was doing Sartharion pulls last night, and the behavior I noticed with ES and MD is that the application of the ES dot, which causes no damage, will use one charge, then each of the first two ticks of damage will use another charge each. This means that the third damage tick will go off when you have no MD charges left, and if your first two didn't crit and the third one did, you could very well pull aggro from the tank. I recommend using AS and autos for MD charges, and save ES until the tank has built up a little aggro.
Yep, I did the same thing, and observed the same result.
As to using ES for MD. Why not use a separate macro with /stopattack or something similar in it? Since ES seems to crit often, it may be the best bet for instant threat. One shot and walk away...
However, I used to use a similar macro for distracting shot, and since a patch or so ago, it seems broken. I never did look into why. (Still fires off an auto). Not that we need to kite/trap anymore. I haven't cc'd in an instance in wotlk yet nevermind freezing arrow (can't chain trap effectively without talent that way though).
As to using ES for MD. Why not use a separate macro with /stopattack or something similar in it?
The problem is not an autoshot eating a charge. The problem is that explosive shot, by itself, generates 4 actions which are capable of consuming charges. The action of applying the explosive shot debuff eats a charge, the first tick of explosive shot damage eats a charge, and the second tick of explosive shot damage eats a charge. Having no MD charges left, the aggro from the third tick of explosive shot damage is applied to the hunter. Since hunters have Mortal Shots, if the first two damage ticks (aggro to the tank) are non-crits and the last damage tick (aggro to the hunter) is a crit, the tank has generated no aggro independently of the MD aggro, and the mob has not reached melee range of the tank yet, the hunter will gain aggro and likely die. Thus ES is a poor choice for MD unless ES is modified to not eat a charge with the dot application.
The problem is not an autoshot eating a charge. The problem is that explosive shot, by itself, generates 4 actions which are capable of consuming charges. The action of applying the explosive shot debuff eats a charge, the first tick of explosive shot damage eats a charge, and the second tick of explosive shot damage eats a charge. Having no MD charges left, the aggro from the third tick of explosive shot damage is applied to the hunter. Since hunters have Mortal Shots, if the first two damage ticks (aggro to the tank) are non-crits and the last damage tick (aggro to the hunter) is a crit, the tank has generated no aggro independently of the MD aggro, and the mob has not reached melee range of the tank yet, the hunter will gain aggro and likely die. Thus ES is a poor choice for MD unless ES is modified to not eat a charge with the dot application.
Err, hmm. Actually, I guess I didn't realize it was actually 4 hits. I actually would be surprised if it did indeed cause an issue. 3 shots for the tank vs 1 shot for the hunter... really shouldn't out threat the MD target. I've often got an extra shot off on an MD target past the third before the tank touched it themselves, and never had an issue. But I can see your point.
... the minimum number of crits after 7.9 shots is zero. Also, at least one of those specials is Explosive Shot, which counts as three hits, not one
If you've just triggered EW, then with 1 point in EW, and at 10 shots per 7 seconds and a 50% crit rate, the odds of not refreshing it before it falls off is ( 1 - 0.5 * 0.33 ) raised to the 8th power... or about 16%. Therefore, with 1/3 EW, you have about 84% uptime. Similarly, with 2/3 EW you have 98% uptime, and with 3/3 EW you have 99.9% uptime.
Although that 3rd point could be argued for pre-WLK, now that we have so much haste, and ES ticking away, the difference between 2/3 and 3/3 is epsilon.
Doesn't all Explosive crit ticks have a chance to cause Expose? That should up the chance even more.
MD seems to act funky at the moment (maybe in combo with Explosive): tried to MD on our MT in Naxx25 with Aimed + Explosive and several times (not always - but could not find a "pattern" to this) mob went for the MT (had our MT targeted too) but changed his mind and went straight for me.
This was specially weird when facing Mob duos and I md'd the second one with that combo to our MT (ONLY Aimed and Explosive, moving to avoid any autos, switching to other mob right after that), Mob hit our MT once (maybe twice) and THEN beelined through everybody straight to me.
It did not happen when I used aimed and auto. Sadly my log crashed so I could not check afterwards what exactly happened.
MD seems to act funky at the moment (maybe in combo with Explosive): tried to MD on our MT in Naxx25 with Aimed + Explosive and several times (not always - but could not find a "pattern" to this) mob went for the MT (had our MT targeted too) but changed his mind and went straight for me.
This was specially weird when facing Mob duos and I md'd the second one with that combo to our MT (ONLY Aimed and Explosive, moving to avoid any autos, switching to other mob right after that), Mob hit our MT once (maybe twice) and THEN beelined through everybody straight to me.
It did not happen when I used aimed and auto. Sadly my log crashed so I could not check afterwards what exactly happened.
Already noted in this thread, basically when you use aimed+explosive you are just missdirecting:
Aimed eats up the first charge, the application of Explosive the second (without any threat) so only the first tick of explosive gets applied to the tanking threat, the other two ticks give you normal threat and 2 ticks of Explosive will often do more damage than one tick plus an aimed.
So even without autoshots Aimed plus Explosive is not a good combination for MD.
Of course, most fights aren't stationary and you'll output less (sometimes significantly less) than 1.1 shots per second. I may be wrong here, but I also believe that volley does not proc expose (not totally sure on this though) so any fight, like trash, where you use volley a decent amount will result in less expose uptime with 2/3. Not to mention that most fights where dps truly matters, you rarely have the luxury of shooting in place the entire fight.
From what i've experienced, Volley DOES proc expose weakness. Not that it would matter much for most boss encounters, but still good to know I suppose.
Doesn't all Explosive crit ticks have a chance to cause Expose? That should up the chance even more.
He included each tick separately in his calculation. Initial post suggested 8 shots in the same time period. Its all approximate anyway; the point is even with a 3/3 EW and high critical strike chance you can still have a sequence of non-crits and have EW fade -- its just less likely.
I noticed new problems on Sarth with MD as well. It doesnt seem like its a sustained threat transfer anymore. The one time it was most notable was when the tank was alt tabbed for 5 secs after MD to him. Nobody else did any threat (except healers), and as soon as my 3rd shot was used up and the tank did not initiate his own threat, I jumped to 100% threat (without doing anything else. And hence a wipe :/
Correct me if I'm wrong, but using Omen or other threat meters to gauge agro doesn't work. My understanding is they calculate it based on the damage you do, range, and a host of other factors. And if the calculations are wrong, then it doesn't matter what they say. It doesn't accurately represent the agro table of the mob.
Case in point when feign death wouldn't wipe your agro right away, but Omen would record it as instant. People would pop up while the mob still had them targeted and proceed to beat them down.
A proper test to see what MD is doing with ES would be to find a world mob, misdirect your pet, and cast ES on the move (preventing auto from firing). You'd have to wait for a series of non-crit/non-crit/crit (with the crit doing more damage than the 2 non-crits) to see if that pulled the mob off your pet. Oh, and it would all have to be done while the mob is still at range, so you don't have to worry about the 130% modifier.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but using Omen or other threat meters to gauge agro doesn't work. My understanding is they calculate it based on the damage you do, range, and a host of other factors. And if the calculations are wrong, then it doesn't matter what they say. It doesn't accurately represent the agro table of the mob.
This is no longer true. Since 3.x, Omen and the other threat meters no longer estimate anything, they get their numbers directly from the Blizzard-provided updates to threat. (That's also why you don't see threat on something you're not actively engaged with, since the client dosn't get the updates..)
I've also seen MD producing strange results, but as-yet I'm unable to find a pattern within that to bug report.