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Old 12/06/08, 7:24 PM   #1
Thayer
Piston Honda
 
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Night Elf Hunter
 
Khaz Modan
Lethal shots not effecting my autoshot or steady shot

I recently started noticing that i was getting less critical strikes then my paper doll was indication i should.

I ran some test using recount, both in my gear, as well as naked with a low level bow.

In both instances, my auto shot and steady shot were criting 6 percent less then my paper doll indicated they should.


Naked, I had 6.24 crit rating (from skinning, base agility and lethal shots) and both only crit 1.2 percent of the time after 3000 shots fired.

Any one else notice this recently?

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Old 12/06/08, 7:33 PM   #2
Mr00000
Glass Joe
 
Draenei Hunter
 
Antonidas
I havent done much testing on this, but its probably because my recount numbers usually fall in line or close to what they should be.

Is the ranged weapon you're using at maxed out skill?

Also, keep in mind that your paper-doll crit references crit chance against even level mobs. So if you're raiding or doing heroics, it will be slightly less.

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Old 12/06/08, 7:47 PM   #3
kr1305
Glass Joe
 
Blood Elf Hunter
 
Zenedar (EU)
Unfortunately it just sounds like a bad case of RNG.

If anything, I crit more than I should some of the time, less than I should on other occasions.

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Old 12/06/08, 7:54 PM   #4
Thayer
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Khaz Modan
I am maxed out in all 3 weapons, and it is not a case of RNG.

After 3000 shots, RNG normalizes and i never got out of the range of 5 - 7 percent less crit then my paper doll.

The crit reduction versus a level 83 mob is 1.2 percent crit.

I tested this on a heroic boss dummy, and auto shot for over 2 hours. I have run 3 seperate tests, and all 3 test showed the same thing.

Here is a screen shot of one test.

http://i179.photobucket.com/albums/w...608_063223.jpg


I will note I only started noticing this after the last maintenance on Tuesday.

Last edited by Thayer : 12/06/08 at 8:04 PM.

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Old 12/06/08, 11:14 PM   #5
KraxisSingular
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Blood Elf Hunter
 
Runetotem (EU)
Heard something of the same for Warriors... And personally I have experienced similar, Naxx Friday saw me crit at around 18% while my crit on tooltip was 23-24%. I disregarded it as a fluke of course, RNG, but now that I hear of others it has surface in my mind again.

I think I will do a few tests tomorrow, first on boss dummies then on 80 dummies. If both show an unreasonable reduction then something isn't right mechanically, if it is only the heroic dummy then it is the bosslevel that does it somehow. If that is how it is supposed to be, if it is so, is hard to tell, but honestly that much of a loss isn't right.

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Old 12/07/08, 6:09 AM   #6
Soulcow
Von Kaiser
 
Orc Hunter
 
Kazzak (EU)
Try to do 2000+ shots with and without the talent on the 80 dummy. On bosses your crit should be lower because 83 bosses have 15 more defense then you have in weaponskill.

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Old 12/07/08, 6:36 AM   #7
Thayer
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Khaz Modan
Originally Posted by Soulcow View Post
Try to do 2000+ shots with and without the talent on the 80 dummy. On bosses your crit should be lower because 83 bosses have 15 more defense then you have in weaponskill.

We already did the difference between a level 80 avatar and a level 83 boss, and it's a 1.2 percent crit reduction. Since in my test I have 6.2 crit percent less, it is EXACTLY accounted for as 5 percent from talents, missing, and 1.2 percent from level difference.

I did the test that I posted before I did 3000 shots, and the same held true.



All this began when I was testing the 8 percent hit requirement, and I had a friend on a Death knight test it as well. While we proved the 8 percent hit rate right, I had him go back and look at his logs, and he was missing 5 percent crit from talents after over 2000 melee attacks as well. This may be a across the board problem.

Last edited by Thayer : 12/07/08 at 6:46 AM.

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Old 12/07/08, 9:17 AM   #8
Soulcow
Von Kaiser
 
Orc Hunter
 
Kazzak (EU)
Originally Posted by Thayer View Post
We already did the difference between a level 80 avatar and a level 83 boss, and it's a 1.2 percent crit reduction. Since in my test I have 6.2 crit percent less, it is EXACTLY accounted for as 5 percent from talents, missing, and 1.2 percent from level difference.

I did the test that I posted before I did 3000 shots, and the same held true.



All this began when I was testing the 8 percent hit requirement, and I had a friend on a Death knight test it as well. While we proved the 8 percent hit rate right, I had him go back and look at his logs, and he was missing 5 percent crit from talents after over 2000 melee attacks as well. This may be a across the board problem.
Yes you proved that somewhere you miss 5% crit. But you are making the asumption it's Lethal Shots. Which looks obvious, but to be sure you need to test with and without Lethal Shots and compare.

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Old 12/07/08, 12:12 PM   #9
Manito
Von Kaiser
 
Orc Death Knight
 
Kilrogg
Thayer, you aren't hit capped. Won't this skew your numbers? I see 6 misses in your Recount screenshot - if some of those were critical strikes that missed, that would give you a pretty significant reduction in tested crit, yes?

I went and tested (274 hit rating, no FA) and I'm getting perfect crit numbers across the board. My variance is less than 0.5%...

Last edited by Manito : 12/07/08 at 12:46 PM.


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Old 12/07/08, 1:35 PM   #10
Thayer
Piston Honda
 
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Night Elf Hunter
 
Khaz Modan
I was intentionally under the hit (testing FA and pet crit, confirming it doesn't transfer t pet.) cap on that test that i linked, since I was actually testing the hit cap threshold when I discovered the crit occurrence. I tested both naked and fully hit capped as well and was getting the same returns on the level 83 dummy and kept getting a lower then tool tip crit return.

My friend on the Death Knight was also getting less then tool tip crit rating after 10,000 melee swings. ( I also think the hit threshold is somewhere between 7.7 and 8.0, and tried to test this last night, but it was 6 in the morn and I needed to sleep). He did confirm that at 8 percent hit, he never missed with his 2 hander on the level 83 dummy.

6 misses out of 1500 shots would only account for 0.4 percent of missing crits, if ALL of the misses were missed crits.

I have had work, but tonight I am going to test without LS and FA, to see if it is a mixture of these talents.

When i tested on a level 80 dummy, I was getting the proper crit rating, though.

Based on formulation. the 3 level difference should only reduce crit by 1.2 percent, and 6.2 percent seems like a large penalty for level difference, and I am sure it was not there before, if that is the case.

I appreciate the feedback, and I will try to have a complied test return once i get 6 or so hours to actually test it to proper thresholds.

Last edited by Thayer : 12/07/08 at 9:34 PM.

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Old 12/07/08, 10:09 PM   #11
Manito
Von Kaiser
 
Orc Death Knight
 
Kilrogg
Something that I noticed, and I'm not sure if this makes a difference or not, if I took all my shots as a single set of data, my average crit between Steady and Auto balanced out to my tooltip 20%. However, separately, I was seeing some variation - higher crit chance on Steady and lower on Auto, and in subsequent tests, this sometimes flipflopped. You might have something here, but definitely need to get some larger chunks of data to support it.


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Old 12/07/08, 11:14 PM   #12
Thayer
Piston Honda
 
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Night Elf Hunter
 
Khaz Modan
Well, I am testing without lethal shots right now, and at over 2000 shots, I am still getting about 5 percent less crit then my tool tip says I should. I am testing auto shot only at this time. I did notice the fluctuation in crit and Hit on different abilities, as well as a variation in my pets crit, hit abilities. If the reduced crit is not tied into talents, as I seem to be finding, then can it be that they changed the crit reduction between levels to be a lot more drastic.

Once I get some 3000 shot test done, I will post screen shots of my returns, and we will see if anyone can duplicate them...

I ended up doing a 4000 shot test, since i saw some RNG fluctuations around 2000 shots. Here is a link.

http://i179.photobucket.com/albums/w...NoLethal83.jpg

In this test, my tool tip said 23.45, but I only crit 18.7 percent, so that is a 4.75 percent crit reduction versus a level 83 boss dummy. This is without Lethal Shots or Focused Aim, as seen in the screen shot, and i will also do test with Lethal Shots and no Focused Aimed. This will be followed by a test with Lethal Shots, and Focused Aimed, with 5 percent hit from gear.



Next I will do a 2000 shot test on a level 80 dummy, to confirm equivalent mob level crit rates.

I did the level 80 dummy test and my crit returns were in line with the tool tip:

http://i179.photobucket.com/albums/w...NoLethal80.jpg

It seems that there is a larger crit penalty for the difference between player / target level differences.




From wowwiki:

Mobs which are the same level as you always have a 5% chance to crit. A mob's or player's crit chance is modified by the difference between the attacker's Attack Rating and the defender's Defense. The attack rating equals the skill with the currently equipped weapon (WS = Weapon Skill), being level * 5 for mobs and the same for player chars with maximum weapon skill. Each point of AR exceeding the target's Defense will increase chance to crit by 0.04%.

If we reverse this formula, the crit reduction should be only 0.6 percent [ (415-400) * 0.04 = 0.6 ].



It has a contradictory formula listed as well:

Mob Def > AR - 0.2% per point of difference [unsure, if correct]

Their example is based on a level 70 player attacking a level 73 mob, and it states that the reduction should be 3 percent crit.

Player's crit chance against mob: tool tip crit chance - 0.2%*(365-350) = tooltip crit chance - 3%





If the modifier on this formula has changed, it may be that the crit chance is further decreased when you have a level 80 player attacking a level 83 mob, or it may be that a level 83 boss mob actually has 425 defense (as opposed to a pure 415 based on level).


I think the formula for crit versus a level 83 boss mob may need possible re-evaluation. The combination of crit into one statistic may also be responsible for this. I believe the removal of the 1 percent chance to miss for casters, and then the combination of spell hit and physical hit into one statistic, may be responsible for the overall hit cap getting lowered.

Of course these are all assumptions, and I am still collecting data as I type this.

What is the agreed upon crit reduction on these forums for a level 80 player attacking a level 83 boss mob?

Last edited by Thayer : 12/08/08 at 1:11 AM.

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Old 12/08/08, 1:01 AM   #13
Feanoro
Von Kaiser
 
Night Elf Hunter
 
Proudmoore
Lethal Shots was confirmed as not affecting Auto a while back, only specials... that should include Steady, to the best of my knowledge.

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Old 12/08/08, 1:08 AM   #14
 Intermission
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Undead Mage
 
Frostmourne
Originally Posted by Feanoro View Post
Lethal Shots was confirmed as not affecting Auto a while back, only specials... that should include Steady, to the best of my knowledge.
You're thinking of Mortal Shots (+crit damage). Lethal Shots is the t1 talent that increases crit chance by 5% with 5 points.

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Old 12/08/08, 2:01 AM   #15
KraxisSingular
Banned
 
Blood Elf Hunter
 
Runetotem (EU)
Originally Posted by Thayer View Post
If the modifier on this formula has changed, it may be that the crit chance is further decreased when you have a level 80 player attacking a level 83 mob, or it may be that a level 83 boss mob actually has 425 defense (as opposed to a pure 415 based on level).


I think the formula for crit versus a level 83 boss mob may need possible re-evaluation. The combination of crit into one statistic may also be responsible for this. I believe the removal of the 1 percent chance to miss for casters, and then the combination of spell hit and physical hit into one statistic, may be responsible for the overall hit cap getting lowered.

Of course these are all assumptions, and I am still collecting data as I type this.

What is the agreed upon crit reduction on these forums for a level 80 player attacking a level 83 boss mob?
Whoa! Lightbulb flashing! Possible connection made...

Wasn't there someone commenting that glancing blows on a bosstarget was way overboard right now? Or am I reading that wrong? If there are indeed too many glancings, then perhaps target defense is indeed too high, or perhaps higher than we would have assumed (it could after all be intentional).
But doesn't defense also affect yellow attacks like Steadys Shot? I know that yellow melee can't be glancing, so perhaps works like that now?

Anyway, raiding tonight showed a similar too low crit on bosses again. Unfortunately RL forced me out of testing... Will try later if needed.

-Edit
Apparently the Rogues are also experiencing wonky crits on their melee swings. Retesting hit table assumptions

Last edited by KraxisSingular : 12/08/08 at 2:28 AM.

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Old 12/08/08, 3:46 AM   #16
Lactose
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Tauren Hunter
 
Talnivarr (EU)
For Rogues at least, the crit depression against boss level targets seems to be 4.80%. Vulajin's post.
I'd say it's very likely that the same applies to Hunters, and the results in this thread seem to back it up.

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Old 12/08/08, 8:37 AM   #17
Soulcow
Von Kaiser
 
Orc Hunter
 
Kazzak (EU)
Seems boss mechanics have changed a lot recently. We need less hit to be hitcapped, but we lose more crit vs a boss.

The old asumed crit depression vs a boss was 1.2% and the newly found one is exactly 4 times higher? Coincidence?

Last edited by Soulcow : 12/08/08 at 8:44 AM.

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Old 12/08/08, 10:56 AM   #18
KraxisSingular
Banned
 
Blood Elf Hunter
 
Runetotem (EU)
Just AFK tested on the heroic boss in Org.

After 2800 shots I got disconnected. Didn't know you could get AFK-disconnected in a fight. Well I resumed the test and stopped at 3500ish. Tooltip crit 22.74, actual crit 15.3!!! That's more than even the most bleak prospects.

I also thoguht my pet could help out so I sent my pet to attack with melee alone. Sure enough, 19.7% crit where it should have been 24%. That fits quite closely with the Rogue results.

I have screenshots, but at this time it appears to be rather moot.

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Old 12/08/08, 11:32 AM   #19
Tornn
Glass Joe
 
Dwarf Hunter
 
Medivh
Blizzard said they were inducting an increase in armor or something to cut down on the high end amount of damage physical classes were doing. While at first glance this should only reduce the damage your critical strikes deal, perhaps something they did in terms of mechanics reduced this. I am at work so I read this once and didn't notice, did you try testing this on mobs your level or one level above? Does that restore the 5% crit?

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Old 12/08/08, 12:35 PM   #20
mako
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Blood Elf Hunter
 
<Bad>
Dragonmaw
My crit rating seems to be working just fine. At the time of this WWS I was around 33% crit raid buffed, which is identical to what my auto/steady average crit is.

Have you noticed this issue only since the last reset, or has it been persisting longer?

Edit: Yes, I was only at 33% crit fully buffed/debuffed. This parse was while I was still in 90% sunwell gear.

Last edited by mako : 12/08/08 at 5:12 PM.

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Old 12/08/08, 1:35 PM   #21
Shaâden
Von Kaiser
 
Draenei Shaman
 
Kael'thas (EU)
163 shoots is way too less to get accurate data.
Plus, are you sure that you only got 33% crit ? do you take in account temporary raid buffs like Leader of the pack/Rampage (5%) ? And also raid debuffs on the boss: Heart of the Crusader/Master Poisoner/Totem of Wrath (3%) ?


EDIT: on your full report, and taking only boss data, you are at about 30% crit.

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Old 12/08/08, 1:53 PM   #22
Thayer
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Night Elf Hunter
 
Khaz Modan
163 shots is subject to positive gains depending on luck. In 100 shots you have a very large margin for variance (somewhere in the range of 10 percent plus or minus).

Consider it the same as your loot rolls. sometimes you get strings of great rolls on items, or you end up with strings of bad rolls on items. If you get a good set of rolls on the first 100 rolls, and a bad set of rolls on the next 100, it may average out to the approximately 50, or it may average out to 60. Once you get more and more sets of rolls, the margin of error gets smaller, and eventually you will end up with 50 as an average on your 1-100 rolls.

In the first 300 shots of my test, I had the same crit rating as my tool tip, but it normalizes after 2000 shot minimum, and even with that many shots fired, it is still subject to about a 1 to 2 percent variance.

The WWS showed no debuffs on the boss that increase crit rating.

No retribution paladin was present and none of the shaman had a wrath totem out, even the enhancement one. You did have leader of the pack though, but I will assume you consider this part of your raid buffed critical strike rating. If not, then this buff would have absorbed the 5 percent crit reduction, if lucky crit strings did not.

Last edited by Thayer : 12/08/08 at 1:59 PM.

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Old 12/08/08, 2:05 PM   #23
Markemp
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Night Elf Hunter
 
Icecrown
Did you check the expected damage as well? It's possible they loaded up the bosses with some resilience. 5% crit reduction would also be a 10% crit damage reduction as well.

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Old 12/08/08, 2:12 PM   #24
Nickiter
Glass Joe
 
Troll Hunter
 
Smolderthorn
I've observed this same crit difference throughout Wrath raiding.

Here's a parse from Loatheb the other night. I'm at 100% hit, with 5/5 Lethal Shots. I could provide several other parses showing the same crit loss.

I'm guessing it's not that Lethal Shots isn't affecting white crit, but rather that white crit is being lowered by the same mechanic that's lowering white crit for other classes.

Edit: About the possibility of glancing blows affecting crit rate, I'm not seeing similar differences in the rate of glancing Steadies and Autos, so I'm not sure that's it.

Last edited by Nickiter : 12/08/08 at 2:17 PM.

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Old 12/08/08, 6:02 PM   #25
KraxisSingular
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Blood Elf Hunter
 
Runetotem (EU)
No it wasn't that our shots were being affected by glancing, as they can't be, and aren't. It was a relationship between the two. However after looking it over more closely it appears our pets' glancings are in order (24-25%).

So for some reason autoattacks, or white attacks are subject to a crit-tax that yellow attacks aren't. That makes no real sense. It is new, as our crits were similar back before 3.0, now they are divergent. This apprently affects melee and ranged physical (I wonder if Wands count). Obviously Rogues are more affected than us, but not by that much if we count BM pets into the equation. The rest I won't dare comment on.

Since it only affects autos, it isn't likely to be related to defense, nor can it be armor (crit should be even then), resilience would also mean even crit.

To me it is either a bug, which might also mean the 8% hit is a bug (same baffling no mentioning change), one that Blizzard is obviously aware of (how can't they be by now?) but keep as they find it balancing. Or it is an intentional crittax to curb physical DPS instituted when the armor/WF change was done. The latter seems somewhat less likely given that Rogues, with no bug helping them DPS, were not all that hot on the charts and they are likely to be the most affected.

Last edited by KraxisSingular : 12/08/08 at 6:10 PM.

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