Clearcasting was recently changed and now has a significantly higher proc rate (40% with 3/3 in Arcane Concentration) but also an ICD of 15s. Given Living Bomb's duration of 12s, you can never have more than one Clearcasting proc per Living Bomb cycle.

Since Living Bomb is indeed our most expensive spell in a single target situation, the general recommendation to save Clearcasting procs for Living Bomb refreshes during hover/conserve phases is appropriate, even though the math was incorrect. In practice, you will often deviate from this rule, because even during conserve phases you are responding to trinket or power torrent procs with brief Fireball spam, which can eat your Clearcasting proc before the next Living Bomb refresh.

Just adding a quick note on the odd relationship between Pyroblast and Pyroblast! I noticed that if you hard cast a Pyroblast at the beginning of a fight (to try and force an early max-DPS Combustion, for example), the DoT component counts towards stacking effects like the Gale of Shadows trinket. However, a Pyroblast! DoT from Hot Streak isn't being counted as one of your DoTs towards maintaining or raising the stacks.

I just noticed a bug with the glyph of conjuring. If you attempt to summon a mana gem without an existing mana gem in your inventory, it cost the reduced mana cost. However, if you attempt to summon a mana gem while holding a mana gem with 1 or 2 charges, it cost the unglyphed version of the spell. It does not seem to matter whether or not the gem is on cooldown or not.

Hopefuly a conclusion to the T3 tests, the last batch was done with a crit rate of 32.98% using Molten Armor and Leader of the Pack. Was done with Critical Mass, 2t11 and glyph of Pyroblast.

Scorch: 11248 casts, 4227 crits (37.58% vs. expected of 32.98 + 5 = 37.98%)
Pyroblast!: 238 casts, 110 crits (46.2185% vs. expected of 32.98 + 5 + 5 + 5 = 47.98%)
Pyroblast! ticks: 919 ticks, 467 crits (50.8161% vs expected of 32.98 + 5 + 5 + 5 = 47.98%)
Hot Streak procs: 238 (5.6304% proc chance, at the crit rate of 32.98 (CM isn't taken into account))

That is roughly in-line with the linear approximations, -2.25c + 0.8 being a slightly better fit than -2.85c + 1. As to the Glyph of Pyroblast it looks like it does in fact work however with such a small sample size it's very hard to tell, I'll have to run another test for that.

Maje, Zaldinar: Thanks for more data!

Here's the data set we've got:

Trial	Tooltip Crit	Casts	Hits	Crits	HS Procs
Maje 1	24.26%	1435	980	455	119
Maje 2	21.28%	15301	15301	4169	1426
Zaldinar 1	10.09%	8148	8148	807	559
Zaldinar 2	31.45%	8042	8042	2515	230
Maje 3	32.98%	11248	11248	4227	238
Zaldinar 3	20.41%	8057	8057	1640	567

I've removed my trial, as it was close to Zaldinar 1 in terms of tooltip crit, but significantly smaller sample size.

Using this, I'm getting a formula of P(T3HS)=-2.73c+0.95, with an r^2 value of 0.9884.

I'm also getting better R^2 values with Logarithmic and Polynomial regressions, but not enough different to conclusively say that it's nonlinear.

Shaewyn, your column 4 for hits calculation seems off for everything but Maje 1.

Edit: Disregard. I mistook 'hits' to mean 'non-crits' not 'non-misses'.

Hits for every trial except Maje 1 is the same as casts, as I don't have hit/miss data for the other trials. In any case, it shouldn't affect the T3HS probability as that's based on crits vs procs.

Looks good! That's the same shape I'm getting. It's interesting that at 35% crit there's a slight dip in HS proc rate, but from 20% crit to 30% crit the curve is reasonably constant. I'm going to adjust the simulator (you sent me the C++ sim you wrote earlier) and try to figure out a coherent/simple way to describe the effect of debuffs/crit suppression on the hot streak talents.

I read through this thread and didn't see anyone mention it but I've done some tests and noticed something, I'd like someone to back me up if they've tried.

It seems to me that the Glyph for Frostfire bolt doesn't work as intended.

"Increases the damage done by your Frostfire Bolt by 15% and your Frostfire Bolt now deals 3% additional damage over 12 sec, stacking up to 3 times, but no longer reduces the victim's movement speed."

My tooltip when testing said that FFB does 10349 damage. Of course I realize that's the average and all but let's just use that for the numbers.

10349x.03= 310.47, So take that x3 because it stacks, it should have a dot that's roughly 931.41 right? When I was trying it, the dot would sometimes crit for 700, but the maximum non-crit tick I had was about 360. I kept 3 stacks up the entire fight but the normal tick never got near 900 even. Has that been happening to anyone else? I reglyphed just in case but still got the same effect. Forgive me if that's been done to death, I only really searched this thread on the subject.

The damage is the damage done over the whole duration of the dot so 910 damage over 12 seconds, then increased by mastery/other effects.

DPM is quite important for Fire. In this case, as you spend less mana on refreshing LB you have more mana to spend on your main nuke. Also, with maximizing the duration of the dot, you're also minimizing the amount of recasting it. While this might be small DPS loss for Living Bomb itself, it's a net DPS gain for your total damage.