Elitist Jerks Cataclysm Fire Mage Compendium

04/28/11, 2:48 PM   #451
angayelle
Piston Honda

Human Mage

Nordrassil (EU)
 Originally Posted by Implosion It seems like the Ignite loss shown by CombustionHelper addon is wrong. I suppose the addon still expects the Ignite update after critical hits of Living Bomb. Tried several different spell cycles on dummies - it shows the ignite loss only in those involving LB. Then I just tried to get a first critical hit by Scorch, apply LB and see what happens if there is a critical tick of LB with Ignite applied. As a visual result the Ignite debuff didn't get refreshed after a critical tick. And the Ignite loss value given by CombustionHelper was exactly the sum of 40% of LB critical ticks. I guess the WoL can come in handy here to sum the direct critical damage, calculate the expected Ignite value and compare it to actual one. Gonna try some cycles on dummies and pull the combatlog data to WoL for evaluation.
There is a bug in my formula, new version will correct that. Meanwhile I'm fighting with more troublesome bugs.

 04/28/11, 7:38 PM #452 angayelle Piston Honda   Angayelle Human Mage   Nordrassil (EU) Looks like the devs have been a bit overboard when doing the list of the spells which shouldn't proc Ignite anymore. Now the SPELL_DAMAGE part of both Flamestrikes (the initial damage, not the dot) and the final explosion of the Flame Orb don't trigger Ignite aswell.
 04/29/11, 2:20 AM #453 Zaldinar Don Flamenco     Zaldinar Human Mage   Arygos There has been some chatter on the official mage forums of folks anecdotally saying they have been seeing more Hotstreaks since the 4.1 patch. Does anyone have any semi-credible evidence to support this before the data collection to remodel T3 hotstreak has to happen again? Or is Ony just using deep breath more often again? To truly model the game, we first must research it. http://zaldinar.wordpress.com/ Proven TheoryCrafting Stuff, chain casting in a PTR near you soon.
04/29/11, 3:29 AM   #454
Korey
Von Kaiser

Human Mage

Lightbringer
 Originally Posted by Zaldinar There has been some chatter on the official mage forums of folks anecdotally saying they have been seeing more Hotstreaks since the 4.1 patch. Does anyone have any semi-credible evidence to support this before the data collection to remodel T3 hotstreak has to happen again? Or is Ony just using deep breath more often again?
Yes. I've been getting a crazy amount of Hot Streaks in both raids and 5-man, often overriding each other because I can't get them out fast enough (with confirmation by CombustionHelper). My priority is now Hot Streak > LB refresh because of this (I assume Hot Streak is more DPS than a missed tick or two on LB, but could be wrong).

Of the bosses I've done this week so far versus last week:

 Boss Last Week casts crit____ 4.1 casts crit Argaloth 11 100 39% 13 103 32% Conclave of Wind 4 76 33% 9 101 31% Omnotron 10 156 39% 26 193 32% Magmaw 7 93 34% 11 101 34% Maloriak 12 123 37% 16 129 35% Halfus 5 58 34% 18 89 51% Valiona 16 145 37% 24 152 34% Ascendant Council 10 96 35% 19 117 41%

My only gear difference was a weapon upgrade. Thanks to Rawr, I know that I had less crit rating post-patch with [Incineratus] (945 CR) than last week with [Modgud's Blade] (953 CR).

The increase of Hot Streaks is noticeable, and I'm not sure what changed. Sometimes the Hot Streaks overrode each other so fast that I wasn't sure if a new spell was triggering it, so I checked the talent tree tooltip, but it doesn't seem like anything changed. In ZA today, I had a string of at least 5 Hot Streaks.

Last edited by Korey : 04/29/11 at 2:21 PM.

 04/29/11, 7:45 AM #455 Maje Don Flamenco   Maje Gnome Mage   Naxxramas (EU) Not anything concrete, but acording to my logs at least the crit cap (in relation to T3 hs) hasn't changed this is with full 372 gear. As to the table posted above, it's not helpful, whithout seing the number of casts and the crit percentage it doesn't say anything. Last edited by Maje : 04/29/11 at 8:01 AM.
04/29/11, 9:24 AM   #456
chaase
Glass Joe

Kirin Tor
 Originally Posted by Maje Not anything concrete, but acording to my logs at least the crit cap (in relation to T3 hs) hasn't changed this is with full 372 gear. As to the table posted above, it's not helpful, whithout seing the number of casts and the crit percentage it doesn't say anything.
The table is clickable, at least a few of the values, and takes you to the world of logs to see the data for the encounter.

 04/29/11, 2:06 PM #457 • Wizeowel old and slow     Wizeowel Human Mage   Nordrassil (EU) If we're going to make new conclusions about any possible increased chance of hot streak procs we need to gather evidence; speculative posts will be moderated.
04/29/11, 2:41 PM   #458
Lurama
Glass Joe

Troll Mage

Demon Soul
 Originally Posted by Wizeowel If we're going to make new conclusions about any possible increased chance of hot streak procs we need to gather evidence; speculative posts will be moderated.
I'd love to be able to help with this. Below are some links to my fire specced fights, while I'm reforged for fire (instead of arcane).

H Halfus 25m - World of Logs - Real Time Raid Analysis

H Atramedes 10m - World of Logs - Real Time Raid Analysis
*Note: I was the ground phase gong ringer as well. Shouldn't have an effect on procs though.

H Maloriak 10m (12 attempts of data) - World of Logs - Real Time Raid Analysis

These were with the following stats (base prior to raid buffs)
848 crit rating
1699 hit rating
1904 haste rating
6487 Spell Power
Lurama @ Demon Soul - Game - World of Warcraft

04/29/11, 3:03 PM   #459
Kobayeshe
Glass Joe

Human Mage

Skullcrusher
Originally Posted by Korey
Yes. I've been getting a crazy amount of Hot Streaks in both raids and 5-man, often overriding each other because I can't get them out fast enough (with confirmation by CombustionHelper). My priority is now Hot Streak > LB refresh because of this (I assume Hot Streak is more DPS than a missed tick or two on LB, but could be wrong).

Of the bosses I've done this week so far versus last week:

 Boss Last Week casts crit____ 4.1 casts crit Argaloth 11 100 39% 13 103 32% Conclave of Wind 4 76 33% 9 101 31% Omnotron 10 156 39% 26 193 32% Magmaw 7 93 34% 11 101 34% Maloriak 12 123 37% 16 129 35% Halfus 5 58 34% 18 89 51% Valiona 16 145 37% 24 152 34% Ascendant Council 10 96 35% 19 117 41%

My only gear difference was a weapon upgrade. Thanks to Rawr, I know that I had less crit rating post-patch with [Incineratus] (945 CR) than last week with [Modgud's Blade] (953 CR).

The increase of Hot Streaks is noticeable, and I'm not sure what changed. Sometimes the Hot Streaks overrode each other so fast that I wasn't sure if a new spell was triggering it, so I checked the talent tree tooltip, but it doesn't seem like anything changed. In ZA today, I had a string of at least 5 Hot Streaks.
Using the table that I snipped, Korey's HS/crit ratio was:

 Boss Last Week This Week Argaloth 28% 39% Conclave of Wind 16% 29% Omnotron 16% 42% Magmaw 22% 32% Maloriak 26% 36% Halfus 25% 40% Valiona 30% 46% Ascendant Council 29% 40% Mean 24% 28% Min 16% 29% Max 30% 46%

It's not nearly enough data to prove anything--but Korey definitely experienced an increase in HS proc rate. Whether it was just good RNG requires more work.

04/29/11, 5:19 PM   #460
Malcophant
Piston Honda

Goblin Mage

Bleeding Hollow
After doing two tests of approx 1000 casts, I feel it's fairly safe to say that the T3 proc chance has not increased. Note that both tests were done without T4 hot streak talented, so all procs were a result of T3.

Test1: Log

Stats:
14.90% crit, no buffs, critical mass on target. No int or crit procs.

 Casts Crits Crit% Procs Proc% 1034 168 16.25% 80 47.62%

I'm not entirely sure whether critical mass is included when calculating the T3 Hot Streak chance, so I tried both using the formula from Fire Cataclysm Discussion: OP Updated for Release

$k(c)=-1.7106c+.7893$
 Source Character Sheet Crit Mass Crit% 14.90% 19.90% Predicted Proc% 53.44% 44.89%

$k(c)=-2.73c+.95$
 Source Character Sheet Crit Mass Crit% 14.90% 19.90% Predicted Proc% 54.32% 40.679%

To be reasonably thorough, I tested again with a slightly higher crit rate.

Test2: Log

Stats:
21.93% crit, Arcane Brilliance, Molten Armor, critical mass on target. No int or crit procs.

 Casts Crits Crit% Procs Proc% 1018 241 23.67% 80 33.20%

$k(c)=-1.7106c+.7893$
 Source Character Sheet Crit Mass Crit% 21.93% 26.93% Predicted Proc% 41.42% 32.86%

$k(c)=-2.73c+.95$
 Source Character Sheet Crit Mass Crit% 21.93% 26.93% Predicted Proc% 35.13% 21.48%

Assuming the formula takes critical mass into account: (if it doesn't, we have a lower proc rate which is entirely unlikely)

$k(c)=-1.7106c+.7893$
 Crit% 19.90% 26.93% Predicted% 44.89% 32.86% Observed% 47.62% 33.20% %Difference +6% +1%

$k(c)=-2.73c+.95$
 Crit% 19.90% 26.93% Predicted% 40.68 21.48% Observed% 47.62% 33.20% %Difference +17% +55%

Assuming k(c)=-2.73c+.95 is the correct formula for T3 HS, it's a safe assumption to say that the formula has changed. More data is necessary to be entirely sure, I'll do some extended tests overnight tonight to get a larger data set.

More data would be necessary to be certain, but I think it's reasonable to say that the T3 proc chance has not increased.

As a complete aside, as a result of this testing I noticed that Master of Elements is returning mana on scorch crits, even with improved scorch talented. We don't really have mana issues, but I don't remember it doing that pre-4.1.

Edit: Been a bit slow with getting the data, but I'll have a few more data points to post tonight.

Last edited by Malcophant : 05/01/11 at 7:00 PM.

 04/29/11, 7:09 PM #461 shammma Glass Joe   Warb Worgen Mage   Aerie Peak Is it possible that there was a bug pre-4.1 resulting in fewer procs or "HS munching" which was fixed? It may be a good idea to compare actual pre-4.1 HS proc rates to predicted ones as well as actual pre and post 4.1 proc rates.
 04/29/11, 7:29 PM #462 Zaldinar Don Flamenco     Zaldinar Human Mage   Arygos Malcophant, I don't believe you were working with the latest version of the T3 HS formula (Maje and Shaewyn can confirm this maybe?) The last one I have noted is Y = -2.73X + 0.95, which I used to generate this: We can easily confirm if the T3 + T4 process has changed however. If anyone can get a series such as this even once: Non-Crit Crit + HS Proc Crit + No HS proc We can confirm that a T3 still resets the T4 counter. I don't have game time available until monday unfortunately, if this is still in question I'll do some longer data collection then. To truly model the game, we first must research it. http://zaldinar.wordpress.com/ Proven TheoryCrafting Stuff, chain casting in a PTR near you soon.
 04/29/11, 8:03 PM #463 Malcophant Piston Honda   Ziem Goblin Mage   Bleeding Hollow Thanks, I was just going off the link in the OP for my formula. I added in the predicted proc chances using k(c)=-2.73c+.95, and assuming that critical mass is indeed taken into account, it completely changes the conclusions. More data is still necessary to be sure, but the disparity between the two differences 17% vs 55% leads me to believe that it has changed to "cut off" at a higher point, or possibly not at all. I can also confirm that it T4 resetting hasn't changed, getting that sequence:
 05/01/11, 10:42 AM #464 Pent Glass Joe   Pent Human Mage   Ravencrest (EU) Now I'm wondering though, if said changes are real, does this mean that the current version of Simcraft provides inaccurate results for fire?
 05/02/11, 4:55 AM #465 Maje Don Flamenco   Maje Gnome Mage   Naxxramas (EU) At the time the original tests were done we found out that Critical Mass (target debuffs) and Fireball/Pyro glyphs are not taken into account to calculate the proc chance. I doubt it has changed since. Also I noticed your actual crit % is lower than expected with CM, were you testing on a boss level dummy? If so the original tests were done on a level 85 ones, it probably doesn't matter in terms of procs but for the sake of consistency if anyone intends to add some data it should be done on a level 85 dummies. As an addendum, I've gone over the logs from my last raid and I can definitely see instance with t3 HS is proccing, although fully raid buffed my crit rate is over the previously deduced limit (~ 0.348). We need some more data for all the crit rates to get to the new function.

 Elitist Jerks Cataclysm Fire Mage Compendium