Cataclysm Fire Mage Compendium - Page 31

angayelle · 04/28/11, 2:48 PM

Originally Posted by Implosion

It seems like the Ignite loss shown by CombustionHelper addon is wrong. I suppose the addon still expects the Ignite update after critical hits of Living Bomb. Tried several different spell cycles on dummies - it shows the ignite loss only in those involving LB. Then I just tried to get a first critical hit by Scorch, apply LB and see what happens if there is a critical tick of LB with Ignite applied. As a visual result the Ignite debuff didn't get refreshed after a critical tick. And the Ignite loss value given by CombustionHelper was exactly the sum of 40% of LB critical ticks.

I guess the WoL can come in handy here to sum the direct critical damage, calculate the expected Ignite value and compare it to actual one. Gonna try some cycles on dummies and pull the combatlog data to WoL for evaluation.

There is a bug in my formula, new version will correct that. Meanwhile I'm fighting with more troublesome bugs.

angayelle · 04/28/11, 7:38 PM

Looks like the devs have been a bit overboard when doing the list of the spells which shouldn't proc Ignite anymore. Now the SPELL_DAMAGE part of both Flamestrikes (the initial damage, not the dot) and the final explosion of the Flame Orb don't trigger Ignite aswell.

Zaldinar · 04/29/11, 2:20 AM

There has been some chatter on the official mage forums of folks anecdotally saying they have been seeing more Hotstreaks since the 4.1 patch. Does anyone have any semi-credible evidence to support this before the data collection to remodel T3 hotstreak has to happen again? Or is Ony just using deep breath more often again?

Korey · 04/29/11, 3:29 AM

Originally Posted by Zaldinar

There has been some chatter on the official mage forums of folks anecdotally saying they have been seeing more Hotstreaks since the 4.1 patch. Does anyone have any semi-credible evidence to support this before the data collection to remodel T3 hotstreak has to happen again? Or is Ony just using deep breath more often again?

Yes. I've been getting a crazy amount of Hot Streaks in both raids and 5-man, often overriding each other because I can't get them out fast enough (with confirmation by CombustionHelper). My priority is now Hot Streak > LB refresh because of this (I assume Hot Streak is more DPS than a missed tick or two on LB, but could be wrong).

Of the bosses I've done this week so far versus last week:

Boss	Last Week	casts	crit____	4.1	casts	crit
Argaloth	11	100	39%	13	103	32%
Conclave of Wind	4	76	33%	9	101	31%
Omnotron	10	156	39%	26	193	32%
Magmaw	7	93	34%	11	101	34%
Maloriak	12	123	37%	16	129	35%
Halfus	5	58	34%	18	89	51%
Valiona	16	145	37%	24	152	34%
Ascendant Council	10	96	35%	19	117	41%

My only gear difference was a weapon upgrade. Thanks to Rawr, I know that I had less crit rating post-patch with [Incineratus] (945 CR) than last week with [Modgud's Blade] (953 CR).

The increase of Hot Streaks is noticeable, and I'm not sure what changed. Sometimes the Hot Streaks overrode each other so fast that I wasn't sure if a new spell was triggering it, so I checked the talent tree tooltip, but it doesn't seem like anything changed. In ZA today, I had a string of at least 5 Hot Streaks.

Maje · 04/29/11, 7:45 AM

Not anything concrete, but acording to my logs at least the crit cap (in relation to T3 hs) hasn't changed this is with full 372 gear.

As to the table posted above, it's not helpful, whithout seing the number of casts and the crit percentage it doesn't say anything.

chaase · 04/29/11, 9:24 AM

Originally Posted by Maje

Not anything concrete, but acording to my logs at least the crit cap (in relation to T3 hs) hasn't changed this is with full 372 gear.

As to the table posted above, it's not helpful, whithout seing the number of casts and the crit percentage it doesn't say anything.

The table is clickable, at least a few of the values, and takes you to the world of logs to see the data for the encounter.

• Wizeowel · 04/29/11, 2:06 PM

If we're going to make new conclusions about any possible increased chance of hot streak procs we need to gather evidence; speculative posts will be moderated.

Lurama · 04/29/11, 2:41 PM

Originally Posted by Wizeowel

If we're going to make new conclusions about any possible increased chance of hot streak procs we need to gather evidence; speculative posts will be moderated.

I'd love to be able to help with this. Below are some links to my fire specced fights, while I'm reforged for fire (instead of arcane).

H Halfus 25m - World of Logs - Real Time Raid Analysis

H Atramedes 10m - World of Logs - Real Time Raid Analysis
*Note: I was the ground phase gong ringer as well. Shouldn't have an effect on procs though.

H Maloriak 10m (12 attempts of data) - World of Logs - Real Time Raid Analysis

These were with the following stats (base prior to raid buffs)
848 crit rating
1699 hit rating
1904 haste rating
6487 Spell Power
Lurama @ Demon Soul - Game - World of Warcraft

Kobayeshe · 04/29/11, 3:03 PM

Originally Posted by Korey

Yes. I've been getting a crazy amount of Hot Streaks in both raids and 5-man, often overriding each other because I can't get them out fast enough (with confirmation by CombustionHelper). My priority is now Hot Streak > LB refresh because of this (I assume Hot Streak is more DPS than a missed tick or two on LB, but could be wrong).

Of the bosses I've done this week so far versus last week:

← Click Here

My only gear difference was a weapon upgrade. Thanks to Rawr, I know that I had less crit rating post-patch with [Incineratus] (945 CR) than last week with [Modgud's Blade] (953 CR).

The increase of Hot Streaks is noticeable, and I'm not sure what changed. Sometimes the Hot Streaks overrode each other so fast that I wasn't sure if a new spell was triggering it, so I checked the talent tree tooltip, but it doesn't seem like anything changed. In ZA today, I had a string of at least 5 Hot Streaks.

Using the table that I snipped, Korey's HS/crit ratio was:

Boss	Last Week	This Week
Argaloth	28%	39%
Conclave of Wind	16%	29%
Omnotron	16%	42%
Magmaw	22%	32%
Maloriak	26%	36%
Halfus	25%	40%
Valiona	30%	46%
Ascendant Council	29%	40%

Mean	24%	28%
Min	16%	29%
Max	30%	46%

It's not nearly enough data to prove anything--but Korey definitely experienced an increase in HS proc rate. Whether it was just good RNG requires more work.

Malcophant · 04/29/11, 5:19 PM

After doing two tests of approx 1000 casts, I feel it's fairly safe to say that the T3 proc chance has not increased. Note that both tests were done without T4 hot streak talented, so all procs were a result of T3.

Test1: Log

Stats:
14.90% crit, no buffs, critical mass on target. No int or crit procs.

Casts	Crits	Crit%	Procs	Proc%
1034	168	16.25%	80	47.62%

I'm not entirely sure whether critical mass is included when calculating the T3 Hot Streak chance, so I tried both using the formula from Fire Cataclysm Discussion: OP Updated for Release

$k(c)=-1.7106c+.7893$

Source	Character Sheet	Crit Mass
Crit%	14.90%	19.90%
Predicted Proc%	53.44%	44.89%

$k(c)=-2.73c+.95$

Source	Character Sheet	Crit Mass
Crit%	14.90%	19.90%
Predicted Proc%	54.32%	40.679%

To be reasonably thorough, I tested again with a slightly higher crit rate.

Test2: Log

Stats:
21.93% crit, Arcane Brilliance, Molten Armor, critical mass on target. No int or crit procs.

Casts	Crits	Crit%	Procs	Proc%
1018	241	23.67%	80	33.20%

$k(c)=-1.7106c+.7893$

Source	Character Sheet	Crit Mass
Crit%	21.93%	26.93%
Predicted Proc%	41.42%	32.86%

$k(c)=-2.73c+.95$

Source	Character Sheet	Crit Mass
Crit%	21.93%	26.93%
Predicted Proc%	35.13%	21.48%

Assuming the formula takes critical mass into account: (if it doesn't, we have a lower proc rate which is entirely unlikely)

$k(c)=-1.7106c+.7893$

Crit%	19.90%	26.93%
Predicted%	44.89%	32.86%
Observed%	47.62%	33.20%
%Difference	+6%	+1%

$k(c)=-2.73c+.95$

Crit%	19.90%	26.93%
Predicted%	40.68	21.48%
Observed%	47.62%	33.20%
%Difference	+17%	+55%

Assuming k(c)=-2.73c+.95 is the correct formula for T3 HS, it's a safe assumption to say that the formula has changed. More data is necessary to be entirely sure, I'll do some extended tests overnight tonight to get a larger data set.

More data would be necessary to be certain, but I think it's reasonable to say that the T3 proc chance has not increased.

As a complete aside, as a result of this testing I noticed that Master of Elements is returning mana on scorch crits, even with improved scorch talented. We don't really have mana issues, but I don't remember it doing that pre-4.1.

Edit: Been a bit slow with getting the data, but I'll have a few more data points to post tonight.

shammma · 04/29/11, 7:09 PM

Is it possible that there was a bug pre-4.1 resulting in fewer procs or "HS munching" which was fixed? It may be a good idea to compare actual pre-4.1 HS proc rates to predicted ones as well as actual pre and post 4.1 proc rates.

Zaldinar · 04/29/11, 7:29 PM

Malcophant, I don't believe you were working with the latest version of the T3 HS formula (Maje and Shaewyn can confirm this maybe?)

The last one I have noted is Y = -2.73X + 0.95, which I used to generate this:

We can easily confirm if the T3 + T4 process has changed however. If anyone can get a series such as this even once:

Non-Crit
Crit + HS Proc
Crit + No HS proc

We can confirm that a T3 still resets the T4 counter. I don't have game time available until monday unfortunately, if this is still in question I'll do some longer data collection then.

Malcophant · 04/29/11, 8:03 PM

Thanks, I was just going off the link in the OP for my formula. I added in the predicted proc chances using k(c)=-2.73c+.95, and assuming that critical mass is indeed taken into account, it completely changes the conclusions. More data is still necessary to be sure, but the disparity between the two differences 17% vs 55% leads me to believe that it has changed to "cut off" at a higher point, or possibly not at all.

I can also confirm that it T4 resetting hasn't changed, getting that sequence:

Pent · 05/01/11, 10:42 AM

Now I'm wondering though, if said changes are real, does this mean that the current version of Simcraft provides inaccurate results for fire?

Maje · 05/02/11, 4:55 AM

At the time the original tests were done we found out that Critical Mass (target debuffs) and Fireball/Pyro glyphs are not taken into account to calculate the proc chance. I doubt it has changed since.

Also I noticed your actual crit % is lower than expected with CM, were you testing on a boss level dummy? If so the original tests were done on a level 85 ones, it probably doesn't matter in terms of procs but for the sake of consistency if anyone intends to add some data it should be done on a level 85 dummies.

As an addendum, I've gone over the logs from my last raid and I can definitely see instance with t3 HS is proccing, although fully raid buffed my crit rate is over the previously deduced limit (~ 0.348).

We need some more data for all the crit rates to get to the new function.